oversight

Central and Southwest Asian Countries: Trends in U.S. Assistance and Key Economic, Governance, and Demographic Characteristics

Published by the Government Accountability Office on 2003-05-09.

Below is a raw (and likely hideous) rendition of the original report. (PDF)

United States General Accounting Office
Washington, DC 20548



        May 9, 2003

        The Honorable Richard G. Lugar
        Chairman
        The Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
        Ranking Minority Member
        Committee on Foreign Relations
        United States Senate

        The Honorable Henry J. Hyde
        Chairman
        The Honorable Tom Lantos
        Ranking Minority Member
        Committee on International Relations
        House of Representatives

        Subject: Central and Southwest Asian Countries: Trends in U.S. Assistance and Key
        Economic, Governance, and Demographic Characteristics

        Following the terrorist attacks of September 2001, prosecuting the global war on terrorism
        became the United States’ primary foreign policy priority. The United States focused its initial
        efforts on Afghanistan in Operation Enduring Freedom because the country harbored elements
        of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. As a result, countries in the region—Pakistan and the five
        Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—
        became frontline states in the war on terrorism, raising the profile of U.S. relations with these
        countries.

        We performed this work under the authority of the Comptroller General; we are sending it to you
        because of your oversight responsibilities. This letter with its enclosures provides information on
        Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the five Central Asian republics. Specifically, this letter highlights
        changes in U.S. priorities, assistance, and presence in Central and Southwest Asian countries
        since September 2001, and the economic, political, and demographic environment in which these
        changes have occurred. Additionally, we prepared short profiles for the seven countries that
        address these changes and characteristics in more detail. Enclosure I presents our scope and
        methodology, and enclosures II through VIII include the country profiles. Enclosure IX provides
        the sources used to develop the country profiles.

        Summary

        Since the attacks of September 2001, the United States has broadened its priorities and increased
        its assistance and presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the five Central Asian republics—
        countries with significant political and economic challenges that may affect the United States’
        priorities and programs in the region. While not specific to all countries in the region, the United
        States continues to focus on priorities that were in place prior to September 2001: political and




                                                                        GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
economic reform, nonproliferation, energy development, counternarcotics, and trafficking.
However, since that time, the United States has emphasized enhanced security and
counterterrorism relationships accompanied by increased military and economic assistance and
U.S. military presence. For example, in fiscal year 2001 the United States provided about $342
million in assistance to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the five Central Asian republics. In fiscal year
2002, the United States planned to provide about $1.9 billion in assistance for these countries,
                                        1
primarily for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Further, since September 2001, the United States has
deployed forces to a number of military facilities in the region to support U.S. operations in
Afghanistan. These expanded activities and investments occur in an environment generally
marked by authoritarian regimes, poor economic outlooks, and large youth populations
vulnerable to the appeal of radical movements.

Background

U.S. security assistance to these countries is primarily channeled through the Departments of
Defense and State and includes foreign military financing, international military education and
training, drawdowns of U.S. equipment and services, and cooperative threat reduction funds.
Economic assistance is primarily channeled through the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) and the Department of State, and includes funds for child survival and
disease programs; development assistance; peacekeeping operations; international narcotics and
law enforcement; economic support; nonproliferation, antiterrorism, and demining; and
                                                       2
assistance provided under the Freedom Support Act. Economic assistance also includes funding
for the Peace Corps and food aid.

The United States Has Expanded Its Priorities, Assistance, and Presence in a Region
Characterized by Significant Challenges

According to Department of State officials, the United States has generally broadened its
priorities in the countries of Central and Southwest Asia since September 2001. Before that time,
U.S. priorities for the Central Asian republics, Afghanistan, and Pakistan generally included
promoting nonproliferation, limiting narcotics production and trafficking, promoting economic
and political reform, and in the case of the Central Asian republics, encouraging energy
development. Since September 2001, the United States has continued to pursue these priorities
while enhancing security relationships and emphasizing political and economic reform and
development. In the cases of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the United States has removed or waived
sanctions and restrictions on assistance to carry out the war on terrorism.

U.S. economic and security assistance to countries in the region has increased since September
2001. As figure 1 shows, for fiscal year 2002, the United States planned to provide about $1.5
billion more in assistance than it provided in fiscal year 2001. Most of this increase—about $1.3
billion—went to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Planned assistance in fiscal year 2002 to the five
Central Asian countries more than doubled from assistance in the prior year—an increase of
about $232 million. Requested assistance for fiscal years 2003 and 2004 is lower than amounts
budgeted in fiscal year 2002, but these amounts are generally higher than assistance provided in
each fiscal year from 1993 through 2001.

1
At the time of our review, obligations data were not available for fiscal year 2002 assistance to
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the five Central Asian republics.
2
 The Freedom Support Act (P.L. 102-511) provides funds, in part, to support freedom and open markets in
the independent states of the former Soviet Union, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.




Page 2                                                               GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Figure 1: U.S. Security and Economic Assistance to Central and Southwest Asian Countries,
Fiscal Years 1993 through 2004
(Constant fiscal year 2002 dollars in millions)


                   2,000



                   1,500



                   1,000



                     500



                        0
                              1993      1994      1995     1996     1997      1998        1999     2000      2001      2002 a   2003 b    2004 b
    Pakistan                  62.4       57.5     19.4     18.4      46.2      19.4       65.6      4.0      91.7    1,050.1    301.4     384.6
    Afghanistan               45.0       2.7      14.1     16.9      30.9       0.0       20.4     31.3      65.2     401.1     427.8     535.7
    Central Asian states     136.8      336.2     184.4   143.9     43.9       93.1       174.9   162.7     184.9     416.7     179.0     201.6
    Total                    244.2      396.4     217.9   179.2    121.0      112.5       260.9   198.0     341.8    1,867.9    908.2    1,121.9



Source: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
a
Budget authority amounts from U.S. Department of State budget documents.
b
Requested amounts from U.S. Department of State budget documents.

Notes: GAO analysis of data from the Departments of Defense and State and the U.S. Agency for International Development.
       Amounts for fiscal years 1993 through 2001 are taken from U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants, which, according to USAID,
       is the complete historical record of all loans and grants authorized by the U.S. government since 1945. However, in
       discussions with Department of State and USAID officials, we learned that it does not include all assistance to these
       countries. For example, other State Department reports show about $386 million in assistance to the Central Asian states
       for fiscal years 1992 through 2001, an amount we were unable to breakdown by year.

         Assistance funds are shown as obligations for fiscal years 1993 through 2001, as budget authority for fiscal year 2002, and
         as requests for fiscal years 2003 and 2004. Exceptions to this include $2 million and $150 million in fiscal years 2002 and
         2003, respectively, to Afghanistan, which are for drawdowns for defense articles, services, education, and training.



In addition to increases in U.S. assistance, U.S. military presence in the five Central Asian
republics, Afghanistan, and Pakistan has expanded since September 2001. For instance, to
conduct Operation Enduring Freedom, the United States used military facilities in Afghanistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and secured overflight rights from these
                                                        3
countries, as well as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Prior to September 2001, the United States
did not have military forces based in these countries. Moreover, since September 2001, the
United States has concluded several agreements and declarations with countries in the area for
the use of military infrastructure, rights to transit territories, and cooperation on political,
economic, and security issues.

3
According to congressional testimony by a Department of Defense official, overflight rights granted by
Turkmenistan were for humanitarian assistance in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.




Page 3                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
These Central and Southwest Asian countries are characterized by significant economic,
political, and demographic challenges that could affect U.S. efforts in the area. These countries
generally carry large amounts of debt and have demonstrated uneven progress in economic
reform, despite some positive growth in both gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP.
Furthermore, various monitors of human rights and political freedoms, including the Department
of State, have identified these countries as politically repressed and corrupt. For example,
Freedom House rates all of these countries as not free for political rights and civil liberties. In
addition, these countries have large youth populations; about 40 percent of the total population
of these countries are under the age of 15, nearly twice that of the United States. According to
National Intelligence Council documents and testimonies of U.S. officials, large youth
populations, combined with poor economic prospects in politically repressive environments
provide fertile ground for radical political movements and social unrest. In addition, China, India,
Iran, and Russia have historic and current interests in these countries, which the United States
must consider when pursuing its objectives.


Scope and Methodology

To obtain information about changes in U.S. priorities, assistance, and presence, we analyzed
documents from the Departments of Defense and State and USAID, including USAID’s U.S.
Overseas Loans and Grants. We also interviewed officials from these agencies. To obtain
information on other bilateral and multilateral assistance we relied on data from the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development. To analyze economic, governance, and
demographic information, we obtained data from the Central Intelligence Agency, the Library of
Congress, the Asian Development Bank, the United Nations Development Program, Freedom
House, Global Insight, the Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.

We conducted our work from December 2002 to March 2003 in accordance with generally
accepted government auditing standards.

Agency Comments and our Evaluation
We discussed this report with officials of the Departments of Defense and State and USAID who
generally concurred with the information provided in this correspondence. They also provided
technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate. In particular, USAID emphasized its
efforts in humanitarian assistance and social sector reform.


We are sending copies of this report to other committees and Members of Congress; the
Secretaries of Defense and State; the Administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development;
the Director, the Office of Management and Budget; and other interested parties. Copies will be
made available to others on request. In addition, this report will be available at no charge on our
Web site at http://www.gao.gov.




Page 4                                                         GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
If you have any questions about this report, please contact me at 202-512-8979 or by E-mail at
Christoffj@gao.gov. John Hutton, Muriel Forster, Michael Rohrback, Rebecca Gambler, Lynn
Cothern, and Mary Moutsos made major contributions to this report.
Sincerely yours,




Joseph A. Christoff
Director, International Affairs and Trade



Enclosures: 9




Page 5                                                       GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure I




Scope and Methodology

To describe U.S. priorities in these countries, we reviewed congressional testimonies of U.S.
officials from the Departments of Defense and State and USAID. We also reviewed Department
of Defense country profiles and security cooperation guidance and Department of State
congressional budget justifications, fact sheets, and other informational documents. We
interviewed officials from the Departments of Defense and State and from USAID.

To describe U.S. presence in these countries, we reviewed information from Global Security Inc.,
the Peace Corps, and Department of Defense country profiles. We also interviewed officials from
the Departments of Defense and State.

To describe U.S. security and economic assistance for fiscal years 1993 through 2001, we
                                                                                        4
analyzed data reported as obligations by USAID in U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants. According
to U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants, economic assistance includes child survival and disease
funds, development assistance, Freedom Support Act funds, Economic Support Funds, security
supporting assistance, food aid, Peace Corps funds, and international narcotics control
assistance. Security assistance includes foreign military financing, international military
education and training, and transfers of excess defense articles.

We used U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants because, according to USAID, it is the complete
historical record of all loans and grants authorized by the U.S. government since 1945, and it
provides the most consistent record of U.S. assistance to all seven countries in terms of
obligations. However, in discussions with Department of State and USAID officials, we learned
that U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants does not include all assistance to the countries we
reviewed. For example, the Department of State’s reports U.S. Government Assistance to and
Cooperative Activities with Eurasia for fiscal year 2001 and U.S. Government Assistance to
and Cooperative Activities with the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union for
fiscal year 2000 identifies about $386 million in assistance over a 10-year period to the five
Central Asian republics that is not included in U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants.

For data on security and economic assistance for fiscal years 2002 through 2004, we reviewed the
Department of State’s fiscal year 2004 congressional budget justification. For fiscal year 2002, we
used budget authority amounts as reported in the fiscal year 2004 budget justification. For fiscal
                                                                                       5
years 2003 and 2004, we used requested amounts as reported in the same document. For
assistance provided to Afghanistan in fiscal year 2003, State Department officials told us to use
assistance provided in fiscal year 2002 supplemental appropriations as reported in the fiscal year
2004 budget justification.

For security assistance, we also included data on obligations for cooperative threat reduction
and U.S. equipment and services drawdowns for fiscal years 1993 through 2003, which was not
included in U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants nor the Department of State’s congressional budget
justification. We obtained this data from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Defense
Security Cooperation Agency, respectively. In addition, we discussed and verified security and
economic assistance amounts with State Department and USAID officials.


4
 The President’s budget for fiscal year 2004 defines an obligation as a binding agreement that will result in
the immediate or future payment of funds.
5
 The President’s budget for fiscal year 2004 defines budget authority as the authority provided by law to
incur financial obligations that will result in outlays.




Page 6                                                               GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure I




To describe foreign and multilateral aid flows to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the five
Central Asian republics for 1993 through 2001, we reviewed data on official development
assistance from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. At the time of our
review, data on official development assistance for 2002 were not available. Official development
assistance is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official agencies to promote economic
development and welfare. In contrast to U.S. security and economic assistance, which is reported
as obligations, official development assistance is reported as net disbursements (actual
payments) and reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.

To describe the economic, political, and demographic characteristics of these countries, we
relied on numerous sources. We obtained maps of the individual countries from Central
Intelligence Agency publications, along with information about land area, population under the
age of 15, life expectancy, literacy, ethnic groups (with the exception of Pakistan, which we
obtained from a Library of Congress publication), religions, type of government and legal system,
and key transnational issues. We obtained information on population, population growth rates,
and most economic and trade data from Global Insight and information on Afghanistan’s external
debt from the Asian Development Bank. We obtained data on the percentage of women holding
seats in lower or single houses of governments from the United Nations Development Program.
We obtained information on political rights and religious freedom from Freedom House and its
Center for Religious Freedom. We compiled information on economic freedom from the Heritage
                                                                   6
Foundation, and on corruption from Transparency International. In all cases, we used the most
recently available data from these sources.




6
 Transparency International’s corruption index is a 10-point numerical scale with extremes of highly
corrupt (0) and highly clean (10), but does not identify degrees of corruption within that scale. We
therefore identified as corrupt all countries rated with scores of less than 3 on this 10-point index.




Page 7                                                              GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure II




Afghanistan
                                                                                Afghanistan has been called the crossroads of
                                                                                Central Asia and is bordered by China, Iran,
                                                                                Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
                                                                                Following U.S. military action, the Taliban regime fell
                                                                                in Afghanistan in late 2001, and an interim
                                                                                government was installed to write a new constitution
                                                                                and prepare for national elections. The United States
                                                                                has removed sanctions affecting Afghanistan that
                                                                                were placed on the Taliban and Taliban-controlled
                                                                                areas of the country. U.S. priorities for Afghanistan
                                                                                are focused on conducting the war on terrorism,
                                                                                building security arrangements, fostering internal
                                                                                governance, and providing humanitarian and
                                                                                development assistance. Afghanistan’s population is
                                                                                ethnically diverse. A majority of the population is
                                                                                Sunni Muslim, but the country has a significant Shi’a
                                                                                minority. Afghanistan’s literacy rate is less than 50
                                                                                percent for the total population, and is even lower
▲U.S. embassy                                                                   among women. More than 40 percent of the
♦The U.S. has access to military facilities in Bagram, Kandahar, Khost,
Lwara, Mazar-e Sharif, and Pul-i-Kandahar.
                                                                                population is under the age of 15. Afghanistan is
                                                                                economically underdeveloped and is the world’s
Afghanistan’s land area is about 650,000 square kilometers (slightly            largest producer of opium.
smaller than Texas). The country is landlocked.

U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993                    U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the United                             (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
States obligated
                                                       600
about $226 million in
total assistance,                                      400
about $224 million of
which was economic                                     200
aid. In fiscal year
2002, budgeted                                          0
assistance totaled                                           1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
about $401 million.                 Security Assistance      0.0       0.0   0.0     0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0   2.8    9.3 197.6 146.5
Requested assistance
for fiscal years 2003               Economic Assistance 45.0           2.7   14.1 16.9 30.9         0.0   20.4 31.3 62.4 391.8 230.2 389.2
and 2004 totals about          Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
$964 million.                  Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                               amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
International aid flows              Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
totaled about $2.1                                  (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
billion from 1993 to
2001. Aid from the                                     450
United States and
                                                       300
other countries totaled
about $1.3 billion while                               150
multilateral aid totaled
about $828 million.                                      0
Primary donors include                                       1993       1994       1995      1996    1997         1998   1999    2000    2001
Germany, the                        Multilateral ODA         136.6      102.5      122.6    109.7    115.7        70.8   40.7     54.7   74.4
Netherlands, Sweden,
                                    Other countries' ODA     81.2       102.1      117.9     91.5    134.7        95.3   76.6     89.0   325.7
Norway, the United
Kingdom, the United                 U.S. ODA                 49.6        61.3       2.3      2.2      0.0         0.0    34.1     2.5     7.8
States, the European           Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Commission, and the            Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
United Nations.                agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
                               reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.

Page 8                                                                                     GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure II
Demographics
Key indicators                                      Ethnic groups                                            Religions
Population (millions)      28.0                                     Tajik                                                      Shi'a
Growth rate                 2.6                                    25.0%                                                      Muslim
(percentage)                                                                Hazara                                            15.0%
                                                                            10.0%
Under 15 years old         42.0
(percentage)
Life expectancy at         46.6
birth (years)
Literacy (percentage)      36.0
                                                                            Uzbek
   male                    51.0                                             8.0%
   female                  21.0                                                                  Sunni                         Other
Seats in lower or          N/A                                              Other                Muslim                        1.0%
                                       Pashtun
                                                                            13.0%                84.0%
single house held by                    44.0%
women (percentage)
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.
Note: N/A = not available.



Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government         Transitional
Type of legal system       Is in the process of being rebuilt in accordance with Islamic principles, international
                           standards, rule of law, and Afghan traditions
Source: CIA.

Afghanistan was not rated for religious freedom by Freedom House’s Center for Religious Freedom. Afghanistan
was also not rated for economic freedom by the Heritage Foundation or for corruption by Transparency International.
Afghanistan was rated for political rights and civil liberties by Freedom House in its survey, Freedom in the World,
2001-2002. However, because of political changes in Afghanistan over the past year, we did not include the rating.



Economics and Trade
Key indicators                               1996         1997              1998         1999       2000         2001         2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                    9.4       10.0              9.6         10.0         9.8          9.1        11.1
Real GDP growth rate (percent)                    6.0        6.0             -4.0          4.2        -1.8         -6.5        21.2
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                       408        413              382          386         369          337          398
Inflation (consumer prices,
percentage)                                      14.0       14.0             16.0         25.0       45.0         40.0           5.3
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)                0.1        0.1              0.1          0.2        0.1          0.1           0.2
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)                0.6        0.6              0.5          0.6        0.6          0.7           1.4
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                 5,600        5,600             5,600        2,700      5,300          N/A          N/A
Government expenditures as a
percent of GDP                                   N/A        N/A              N/A          N/A         N/A          N/A          N/A
Sources: Global Insight and Asian Development Bank.


Key Transnational Issues
• Major producer of opium and hashish. Political factions profit from the drug trade.
• Close ties with Pashtuns in Pakistan make the long border between Afghanistan and Pakistan difficult to control.
Source: CIA.




Page 9                                                                               GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure III



Kazakhstan
                                                                            Kazakhstan has the largest landmass of the
                                                                            Central Asian republics and shares its borders with
                                                                            China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkmenistan,
                                                                            Uzbekistan, and the Caspian Sea. After the
                                                                            September 2001 attacks, Kazakhstan provided
                                                                            overflight rights and allowed for the transshipment
                                                                            of supplies to U.S. forces based in Uzbekistan and
                                                                            Kyrgyzstan. U.S. priorities for the country include
                                                                            promoting security cooperation, nonproliferation,
                                                                            internal reform, and energy development.
                                                                            Kazakhstan has significant oil and gas reserves.
                                                                            State Department officials estimate that
                                                                            Kazakhstan has the potential to be one of the
                                                                            world’s top five oil exporters in 15 years.
                                                                            Kazakhstan’s population is highly literate and
                                                                            nearly one third are under the age of 15. Most are
▲U.S. embassy.                                                              Kazakh, though the country has a significant
There was an average of 123 Peace Corps volunteers in Kazakhstan            Russian minority. Islam and Russian Orthodox are
during fiscal year 2002.                                                    the predominant religions. Key transnational
Kazakhstan’s land area is about 2,720,000 square kilometers (about four     issues include cultivation and trafficking of drugs,
times the size of Texas). The county is landlocked.                         border security, and water and environmental
                                                                            problems.

U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993                   U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the United                           (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
States obligated
                                                   200
about $586 million in
assistance. Of this                                160
amount, $193 million                               120
was for security                                    80
assistance, including
                                                    40
$180 million for
cooperative threat                                   0
                                                         1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
reduction. In fiscal
year 2002, budgeted              Security Assistance      0.2    51.0 81.5 43.2      0.4    8.8   2.3     2.2   3.1     5.6   12.7    4.1
aid totaled about $58            Economic Assistance      5.9 121.2 45.6 33.0 10.6 29.9 49.7 51.6 46.8 52.2 47.2 36.3
million. Requested
assistance for fiscal       Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
                            Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
years 2003 and 2004
                            amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.
totals $100 million.

International Aid Flows
                                    Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
International aid flows                            (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
totaled about $1.2
billion from 1993 to                               300
2001. Aid from the
                                                   200
United States and
other countries                                    100
totaled about $1
billion while                                       0
multilateral aid totaled                                 1993      1994    1995     1996     1997       1998    1999     2000        2001
about $221 million.             Multilateral ODA          2.3      21.2     31.6     33.4     38.8      33.0    28.8      15.3       16.5
Primary donors                  Other countries' ODA      8.8      26.7     33.5     35.3     73.9      140.1   109.4    120.4       77.2
include Germany,                U.S. ODA                  10.6     13.9     9.1      70.0     40.3      66.7    47.3      60.5       56.9
Japan, the United
States, and the             Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
                            Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
European
                            agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
Commission.                 reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.
Page 10                                                                              GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure III
Demographics
Key indicators                                        Ethnic groups                                          Religions
Population (millions)        14.8                                         Russian                 Russian
                                                                           30.0%                  Orthodox                 Protestant
Growth rate                   0.0
                                                                                                   44.0%                     2.0%
(percentage)
Under 15 years old           26.0
(percentage)                                                                 Ukranian                                             Other
Life expectancy at           63.4                                             3.7%                                                7.0%
birth (years)
Literacy (percentage)        98.0                                            Uzbek
   male                      99.0                                            2.5%
   female                    98.0
                                            Kazakh                           Other                                             Muslim
Seats in lower or            10.4
                                            53.4%                            10.4%                                             47.0%
single house held by
women (percentage)

Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.

Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government         Republic; current president expanded his powers by decree
Type of legal system       Based on civil law system
Source: CIA.


Political rights and       Not free                  5.5 Not free                                                                Free
civil liberties            7                                                                                                        1

                           Unfree                                       4.0 Partly free                                          Free
Religious freedom          7                                                                                                        1

                           Repressed                         3.50 Mostly unfree                                                  Free
Economic freedom           5                                                                                                        1

                           Highly corrupt      2.3 Corrupt                                                               Highly clean
Corruption                 0                                                                                                       10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.

Economics and Trade
Key indicators                                  1996          1997         1998           1999         2000       2001          2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                   44.0          44.8         43.8           45.1         49.4       55.9          60.5
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                 0.5           1.7         -1.9            2.7          9.6       13.2           8.2
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                      2,804         2,888        2,887          3,012        3,314      3,765         4,075
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)          39.3          17.4           7.1           8.3         13.2        8.4           6.0
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)                5.9           6.5           5.4           5.6          9.1        8.6           8.4
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)                4.2           4.3           4.4           3.7          5.1        6.4           6.3
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                     98.2         119.3        182.7          215.3        137.7      173.4         210.6
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                           19.8          19.1         15.6           16.2         15.0       15.0          16.8
Source: Global Insight.

Key Transnational Issues
• Significant cultivation and trafficking of cannabis; transshipment point for drugs from Southwest Asia to Russia,
  Western Europe, and North America.
• Working with China and Russia to settle boundaries, control migration, and limit illegal activities and trade.
• Water and environmental disputes with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (as a result of the shrinking of
  the Aral Sea); dispute with Kyrgyzstan over water and hydroelectric power.
Source: CIA.


Page 11                                                                              GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure IV



Kyrgyzstan
                                                                                Bordered by China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and
                                                                                Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan has played an important
                                                                                regional role in the war on terrorism, providing
                                                                                base access and overflight rights for U.S. and
                                                                                coalition forces. U.S. priorities for Kyrgyzstan have
                                                                                focused on expanding security relationships and
                                                                                support for political and economic reform.
                                                                                Kyrgyzstan’s population is highly literate and a
                                                                                majority is Kyrgyz. More than a third of the
                                                                                population is under the age of 15, and a majority
                                                                                of the population is Muslim. According to State
                                                                                Department officials, Kyrgyzstan is more politically
                                                                                advanced than most of its Central Asian neighbors
                                                                                but still has a poor human rights record.
                                                                                Kyrgyzstan is the only Central Asian republic to
                                                                                accede to the World Trade Organization, having
▲U.S. embassy                                                                   done so in 1998. Kyrgyzstan has increasingly
There was an average of 68 Peace Corps volunteers in Kyrgyzstan during          become a transshipment point for drugs; has
fiscal year 2002.                                                               periodically dealt with Islamic insurgents from
♦The U.S. has access to military facilities in Manas and Osh.                   Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan; and has
Kyrgyzstan’s land area is about 200,000 square kilometers (slightly smaller     ongoing water and territorial disputes with
than South Dakota). The country is landlocked.                                  Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993              U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the United                      (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
States obligated about
                                              90
$317 million in
assistance, about $309
                                              60
million of which was
economic aid. In fiscal                       30
year 2002, budgeted
assistance totaled                              0
about $85 million.                                  1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Requested assistance                                 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 2.2 11.6 5.0 7.0
                            Security Assistance
for fiscal years 2003
and 2004 totals about       Economic Assistance 73.2 49.5 28.5 18.9 5.8 17.6 43.3 38.8 33.2 73.1 38.0 41.9
$92 million.            Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
                             Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                             amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
Between 1993 and                     Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
2001, international aid                              (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
flows totaled about
                                                    400
$2.1 billion. Aid from
the United States and
                                                    200
other countries
totaled about $906
                                                     0
million while                                             1993     1994       1995    1996    1997    1998     1999     2000     2001
multilateral assistance
                                 Multilateral ODA         28.5     98.4       210.8   145.4   204.5   162.1    160.5    115.9    113.8
totaled over $1.2
billion. Primary                 Other countries' ODA     34.0     77.4       90.3    79.7    48.0     63.6    108.2    81.5     48.8
donors include Japan,            U.S. ODA                 69.7     25.5       21.5    31.1     8.7     32.3     32.0    25.6     28.5
the United States, the
                             Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Asian Development
                             Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
Bank, and the World          agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
Bank.                        reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.



Page 12                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure IV
Demographics
Key indicators                                      Ethnic groups                                                    Religions
Population (millions)         5.0                                                                  M uslim                        Russian
                                                                   Russian
Growth rate                   1.5                                   18.0%                           75.0%                         Ortho do x
(percentage)                                                                                                                       20.0%
Under 15 years old          34.4                                            Uzbek
(percentage)                                                                12.9%
Life expectancy at          63.6
birth (years)
Literacy (percentage)       97.0
   male                     99.0                                            Ukrainian
   female                   96.0                                             2.5%
Seats in lower or           10.0                                                                                                  Other
                                        Kyrgyz                          Other
single house held by                                                    14.2%
                                                                                                                                  5.0%
                                        52.4%
women (percentage)
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.


Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government        Republic
Type of legal system      Based on civil law system
Source: CIA.

Political rights and       Not free                5.5 Not free                                                                     Free
civil liberties            7                                                                                                           1

                           Unfree                                    4.0 Partly free                                                Free
Religious freedom          7                                                                                                           1

                           Repressed                          3.35 Mostly unfree                                                    Free
Economic freedom           5                                                                                                           1

                           Highly corrupt     2.2 Corrupt                                                                   Highly clean
Corruption                 0                                                                                                          10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.


Economics and Trade
Key indicators                               1996          1997           1998             1999              2000         2001        2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                   10.5       11.7            11.9            12.3              13.0         13.7           13.4
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                 7.1        9.9             2.1             3.7               5.4          5.3           -1.8
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                   2,290         2,482          2,497            2,549             2,653        2,770       2,699
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)       31.9          23.5           10.4             35.9              18.7          6.9         2.5
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)             0.5           0.6             0.5             0.5               0.5          0.5         0.5
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)             0.8           0.6            0.8              0.5               0.5          0.4         0.5
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                 137.9         151.6          250.3            363.9             347.5        368.0       362.6
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                           22.2       21.8            21.4            19.1              17.3         16.6           17.4
Source: Global Insight.


Key Transnational Issues
• Increasingly used as a transshipment point for drugs from Southwest Asia to Russia and Western Europe.
• Periodic target of Islamic insurgents from Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Water and hydroelectric power disputes with Kazakhstan; territorial disputes with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Source: CIA.



Page 13                                                                                 GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure V



Pakistan
                                                                               Pakistan shares its borders with Afghanistan,
                                                                               China, India, and Iran. Pakistan has become an
                                                                               important U.S. partner in the war on terrorism,
                                                                               providing basing and overflight rights for U.S. and
                                                                               coalition forces in Operation Enduring Freedom.
                                                                               The United States has waived sanctions imposed
                                                                               on Pakistan for its development and testing of
                                                                               nuclear weapons and in response to the 1999
                                                                               military coup. U.S. priorities for Pakistan include
                                                                               promoting enhanced security cooperation and
                                                                               nonproliferation and encouraging political reform
                                                                               and economic development. Pakistan’s population
                                                                               is predominantly Muslim and nearly 40 percent are
                                                                               under the age of 15. Pakistan has a poor
                                                                               economic outlook and is highly indebted. Key
                                                                               transitional issues include its continued conflict
▲U.S. embassy; ■ U.S. consulates                                               with India over Kashmir, drug trafficking, and its
♦The U.S. has access to military facilities in Jacobabad and other             long border with Afghanistan that is difficult to
locations.                                                                     control.
Pakistan’s land area is about 800,000 square kilometers (about twice the
size of California).

U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993 to                  U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
2001, the United States                          (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
obligated about $384
                                                     1,200
million in total
                                                     1,000
assistance, all of which
was economic                                           800
assistance. In fiscal                                  600
year 2002, budgeted                                    400
assistance totaled about                               200
$1 billion. Requested                                    0
assistance for fiscal                                         1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
years 2003 and 2004                 Security Assistance        0.0   0.0     0.0   0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0   0.0    0.0    75.9 50.4 74.2
totals about $686
million.                            Economic Assistance 62.4 57.5 19.4 18.3 46.1 19.4 65.6                      4.0    91.7 974.2 251.0 310.4

                                Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
                                Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                                amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
International aid flows              Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
totaled more than $10                                (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
billion from 1993 to
                                                  2,500
2001. Aid from the
                                                  2,000
United States and                                 1,500
other countries                                   1,000
totaled about $4.5                                  500
billion while                                         0
multilateral aid totaled                           -500
about $5.7 billion.                                          1993    1994     1995       1996     1997      1998      1999     2000   2001
Primary donors                    Multilateral ODA           663.6 1,285.2 598.7         677.0    577.6    562.2      315.6   235.3   826.5
include Japan, the                                           460.0   633.8    427.5      417.4    155.2    615.8      383.3   402.3   354.6
                                  Other countries' ODA
Asian Development
Bank, the United                  U.S. ODA                   63.8    -61.3    -92.9      -112.2   -82.8     -43.9     79.6     91.8   788.1
Nations, and the              Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
World Bank.                   Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
                              agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
                              reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.

Page 14                                                                                  GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure V
Demographics
Key indicators                                      Ethnic groups                                        Religions
Population (millions)     144.7                                        Sindhi                                              Shi'a
Growth rate                 2.4                                        12.1%                                              Muslim
(percentage)                                                                Pashtun                                       20.0%
Under 15 years old         39.9                                              13.8%
(percentage)
Life expectancy at         61.8
birth (years)
Literacy (percentage)      43.0                                             Baloch
   male                    55.0                                              4.3%
                                                                                                                              Other
   female                  29.0                                            Muhajir              Sunni                         3.0%
Seats in lower or          21.1           Punjabi                                               Muslim
                                                                            7.7%
single house held by                      59.1%                       Other                     77.0%
women (percentage)                                                    3.0%
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, Library of Congress, and United Nations Development Program.

Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government         Federal republic
Type of legal system       Based on English common law with certain added provisions to accommodate its status as
                           an Islamic state
Source: CIA.


Political rights and       Not free                 5.5 Not free                                                         Free
civil liberties            7                                                                                                1

                           Unfree         6.0 Unfree                                                                     Free
Religious freedom          7                                                                                                1

                           Repressed                                3.30 Mostly unfree                                   Free
Economic freedom           5                                                                                                1

                           Highly corrupt           2.6 Corrupt                                                   Highly clean
Corruption                 0                                                                                                10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.

Economics and Trade
Key indicators                                 1996         1997          1998          1999        2000       2001       2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                 308.5        311.7         319.7         331.3       346.1      354.8      367.5
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                3.9          1.0           2.6           3.7         4.4        2.5        3.6
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                     2,460        2,426         2,429         2,458       2,506      2,509      2,540
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)         10.4         11.4            6.2          4.1         4.4        3.1        4.0
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)               9.3          9.3            9.6          9.0         9.2        8.9       10.5
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)              14.1         13.6          12.2          12.0        11.3       12.0       14.4
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                   320.4        323.7         336.5         376.7       372.8      389.9      310.5
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                          24.3         22.6          23.1          22.7        23.4       23.6          24.4
Source: Global Insight.

Key Transnational Issues
• Key transshipment point for heroin from Southwest Asia to western markets.
• Continuing armed dispute with India over the status and sovereignty of Kashmir and disputes with India over
  maritime boundaries and Indus River water sharing.
• Close ties between Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan make long border difficult to control.
Source: CIA.



Page 15                                                                              GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VI



Tajikistan
                                                                                    Tajikistan shares its borders with Afghanistan,
                                                                                    China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan
                                                                                    provided access to bases for U.S. forces in the
                                                                                    war on terrorism. U.S. priorities for Tajikistan
                                                                                    include expanding security cooperation and
                                                                                    encouraging political and economic reform. The
                                                                                    country’s 5-year civil war ended with a
                                                                                    powersharing peace accord implemented in 2000.
                                                                                    As a result, Tajikistan is the only Central Asian
                                                                                    country in which a religiously affiliated political
                                                                                    party is represented in parliament. Tajikistan is the
                                                                                    poorest of the former Soviet republics, and
                                                                                    international aid flows are an important source of
                                                                                    economic support for the country. Like the other
                                                                                    Central Asian republics, Tajikistan’s population is
                                                                                    highly literate, and a large percentage is under the
▲U.S. embassy
♦The U.S. has access to military facilities in Dushanbe, Khujand, Kulyab,
                                                                                    age of 15. Majorities of the population are Tajik
and Kurgan-Tyube.                                                                   and Muslim. Tajikistan is a major transshipment
                                                                                    point for drugs and has been used as a staging
Tajikistan’s land area is about 140,000 square kilometers (slightly smaller         ground for Islamic insurgents into Uzbekistan.
than Wisconsin). The country is landlocked.

U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993                     U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the U.S.                                (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
obligated about $195
                                                         120
million in total
assistance, of which
                                                         80
about $193 million was
economic assistance.
In fiscal year 2002,                                     40
budgeted assistance
totaled about $94                                         0
                                                               1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
million. Requested
assistance for fiscal                Security Assistance       0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    1.6   0.0    0.0    0.0    4.0   0.3    1.1
years 2003 and 2004                  Economic Assistance 17.2 53.5            9.5     3.8   11.6 10.9 27.4 21.9 37.5 90.1 22.3 44.5
totals about $68
million.                       Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
                               Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                               amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
Between 1993 and                         Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
2001, international aid                                  (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
totaled about $1 billion.
                                                         200
Aid from the United
States and other
countries totaled about                                  100
$382 million. Multilateral
assistance totaled about
$621 million. Primary                                      0
donors include                                                  1993     1994        1995    1996     1997      1998    1999     2000      2001
Germany, the                          Multilateral ODA          4.8      44.4        29.0    65.3     53.8      129.0   92.3    107.5      95.1
Netherlands,                                                    5.8      12.0        24.7    26.2     25.7      16.8    17.1     16.7      25.6
                                      Other countries' ODA
Switzerland, the United
Kingdom, the United                   U.S. ODA                  20.1     20.8        20.4    23.3     14.2      27.2    20.8     23.5      41.1
States, the European             Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Commission, and the              Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
World Bank.                      agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
                                 reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.


Page 16                                                                                     GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VI
Demographics
Key indicators                                       Ethnic groups                                             Religions
Population (millions)          6.6                                                                                           Shi'a
                                                                        Uzbek
Growth rate                    2.1                                      25.0%                                               Muslim
(percentage)                                                                                                                 5.0%
Under 15 years old            40.4
(percentage)
Life expectancy at            64.3
birth (years)
Literacy (percentage)         98.0
   male                       99.0                                       Russian
                                                                                                                               Other
   female                     97.0        Tajik                            3.5%                    Sunni
                                                                     Other                                                     10.0%
Seats in lower or             12.7       64.9%                                                     Muslim
                                                                     6.6%
single house held by                                                                               85.0%
women (percentage)
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.


Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government         Republic
Type of legal system       Based on civil law system
Source: CIA.

Political rights and       Not free       6.0 Not free                                                                        Free
civil liberties            7                                                                                                     1


Religious freedom          Unfree                                                                                             Free
Not rated                  7                                                                                                     1

Economic freedom           Repressed                  3.95 Mostly unfree                                                      Free
                           5                                                                                                     1

Corruption                 Highly corrupt                                                                              Highly clean
Not rated                  0                                                                                                     10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.


Economics and Trade
Key indicators                                    1996      1997           1998           1999          2000        2001       2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                      5.6        5.7               5.9         6.1             6.7      7.4        8.0
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                  -4.4        1.7               5.3         3.7             8.3     10.2        9.8
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                          944        946               980      1,000         1,058       1,142      1,228
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)           502.4       88.0              43.2       27.5          32.9        38.6       10.6
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)                  0.8        0.7               0.6        0.7           0.8         0.7        0.7
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)                  0.8        0.8               0.7        0.7           0.8         0.8        0.9
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                      112.6     148.3          201.2          182.4         152.1       196.3      233.0
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                             17.9       15.9              17.4        17.6            14.5     15.0       15.3
Source: Global Insight.

Key Transnational Issues
• Major transshipment point for drugs from Afghanistan to Russia and Western Europe.
• Water and environmental disputes with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (as a result of the shrinking of
  the Aral Sea).
• Unresolved border and territorial disputes with China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.
Source: CIA.



Page 17                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VII



Turkmenistan
                                                                                Turkmenistan borders Afghanistan, Iran,
                                                                                Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the Caspian Sea. A
                                                                                former Soviet republic, Turkmenistan has declared
                                                                                itself as permanently neutral and has not provided
                                                                                formal military assistance in the war on terrorism.
                                                                                However, it aided the international community in
                                                                                transporting humanitarian relief to Afghanistan.
                                                                                U.S. priorities for Turkmenistan are focused on
                                                                                encouraging internal reform, strengthening
                                                                                security relationships, and promoting energy
                                                                                development. Turkmenistan has the world’s fifth
                                                                                largest natural gas reserves, and it is the world’s
                                                                                tenth largest producer of cotton. The country’s
                                                                                population is highly literate. More than one-third of
                                                                                the population is under age 15, and more than
                                                                                three-quarters are Turkmen and Muslim. The
▲U.S. embassy
There was an average of 54 Peace Corps volunteers in Turkmenistan
                                                                                country is not politically free—independent and
during fiscal year 2002.                                                        opposition political activity are prohibited—and
Turkmenistan’s land area is about 490,000 square kilometers (slightly           corruption is pervasive. It faces problems with
larger than California). The country is landlocked.                             drug trafficking and environmental disputes with its
                                                                                neighbors.
U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993                   U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the United                           (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
States obligated
about $153 million in
assistance, about                                   40
$149 million of which
was economic aid. In                                20
fiscal year 2002,
budgeted assistance                                  0
totaled about $20                                         1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
million. Requested
                                Security Assistance       0.0     0.1     0.1    0.2   0.3     0.9     1.0    0.9   1.0    0.4      1.1   1.1
assistance for fiscal
years 2003 and 2004             Economic Assistance       38.6 32.3       6.0   32.2   3.3     4.8    12.3 10.6     8.5    19.3     8.4   9.7
totals about $20            Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
million.                    Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                            amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
International aid flows             Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
totaled about $294                                  (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
million from 1993 to
                                                    80
2001. Aid from the
United States and
other countries                                     40
totaled about $218
million while
multilateral flows                                    0
                                                           1993     1994        1995   1996      1997        1998   1999         2000     2001
totaled about $76
million. Primary                 Multilateral ODA          0.5      13.3        10.3    11.1         9.0     9.0     9.6          5.9     7.3
donors include Japan,            Other countries' ODA      7.1          1.3     3.3     2.0          4.4     14.2    7.0         19.0     51.3
Turkey, the United               U.S. ODA                  28.3     15.0        18.1    13.3         0.0     2.6     8.8          7.8     14.3
States, the European
Commission, and the
                             Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
United Nations.              Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
                             agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
                             reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.

Page 18                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VII
Demographics
Key indicators                                     Ethnic groups                                           Religions
Population (millions)         4.9                                       Uzbek                                            Eastern
Growth rate                   1.9                                       9.2%                  Muslim                     Orthodox
(percentage)                                                                                  89.0%                       9.0%
Under 15 years old          37.3
                                                                            Russian
(percentage)
                                                                             6.7%
Life expectancy at birth    61.1
(years)
Literacy (percentage)       98.0
   male                     99.0       Turkmen                            Other                                               Other
   female                   97.0        77.0%                             7.1%                                                2.0%
Seats in lower or single    26.0
house held by women
(percentage)
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.


Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government         Republic
Type of legal system       Based on civil law system
Source: CIA.

Political rights and       Not free                                                                                         Free
civil liberties            7                                                                                                   1


Religious freedom          Unfree                                                                                           Free
                           7                                                                                                   1

Economic freedom           Repressed         4.15 Repressed                                                                 Free
                           5                                                                                                   1

Corruption                 Highly corrupt                                                                           Highly clean
Not rated                  0                                                                                                  10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.


Economics and Trade
Key indicators                                   1996         1997          1998           1999        2000      2001        2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                     15.9        14.0             14.7        17.1        20.2      24.2          28.1
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                  -6.7       -11.3              5.0        16.0        17.6      20.5          15.7
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                       3,499        3,051         3,152          3,612       4,202     5,006       5,685
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)          992.4         83.6          16.7           19.7        14.0      14.9        10.8
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)                 1.7          0.8            0.6           1.2         2.5       2.6         3.0
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)                 1.4          1.0            1.1           1.5         1.8       2.3         2.3
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                       39.5       175.2         284.9          172.7        64.1      68.7          66.0
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                             21.4        26.6             25.9        19.8        25.3      24.2          30.3
Source: Global Insight.

Key Transnational Issues
• Increasing transshipment point for drugs from Southwest Asia to Russia and Western Europe.
• Water and environmental disputes with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (as a result of the shrinking of the
  Aral Sea).
• Dispute with Iran about seabed and maritime boundaries in the Caspian Sea.
Source: CIA.



Page 19                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VIII




Uzbekistan
                                                                                 Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populated
                                                                                 country and borders Afghanistan, Kazakhstan,
                                                                                 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. After
                                                                                 the September 2001 attacks, it became an
                                                                                 important U.S. strategic partner in the war on
                                                                                 terrorism, allowing the U.S. to base forces at its
                                                                                 military facilities. In March 2002, the United
                                                                                 States and Uzbekistan signed the Declaration
                                                                                 on the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation
                                                                                 Framework, which affirms a joint commitment to
                                                                                 establish stability and security in Central Asia.
                                                                                 U.S. priorities for Uzbekistan include enhancing
                                                                                 security cooperation and encouraging political
                                                                                 and economic reform. A former Soviet republic,
                                                                                 Uzbekistan is strategically placed but politically
                                                                                 repressed. The country carries a large amount
                                                                                 of debt. Uzbekistan’s population is highly
▲U.S. embassy                                                                    literate, predominantly Uzbek and Muslim, and
There was an average of 54 Peace Corps volunteers in Uzbekistan during           more than a third of the population is under age
fiscal year 2002.                                                                15. Key transnational issues include increased
♦The U.S. has access to military facilities in Chirchik, Khanabad, and Tuzel.
                                                                                 drug trafficking, radical Islamic groups, and
Uzbekistan’s land area is about 450,000 square kilometers (slightly larger       severe water and environmental problems.
than California). The country is landlocked.

U.S. Assistance
From fiscal year 1993                    U.S. Security and Economic Assistance, Fiscal Years 1993-2004
to 2001, the United                             (Total obligations, constant fiscal year 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
States obligated
about $208 million in                                  200
assistance, about                                      160
$188 million of this in                                120
economic aid. In fiscal                                 80
year 2002, budgeted                                     40
assistance totaled                                       0
                                                             1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
about $160 million.
                                    Security Assistance      0.0    0.0   0.1    0.3   6.8     2.2     2.3   2.4     5.9     37.1   9.8     11.3
Requested assistance
for fiscal years 2003               Economic Assistance      1.7    28.6 13.0 12.1     4.8     14.1 34.6 32.8 46.7 123.3 34.2 44.6
and 2004 totals about
$100 million.                Sources: Departments of Defense and State and U.S. Agency for International Development.
                             Note: Fiscal year 2002 assistance amounts are budget authority levels and fiscal year 2003 and 2004
                             amounts are requested levels from Department of State budget documents.

International Aid Flows
Between 1993 and                      Bilateral and Multilateral Official Development Assistance, 1993-2001
2001, international aid                               (Net disbursements, constant 2002 U.S. dollars in millions)
to Uzbekistan totaled
                                                      300
about $1.1 billion. Aid
from the United                                       200
States and other
countries totaled                                     100
about $975 million
and multilateral aid                                    0
                                                             1993     1994      1995    1996         1997    1998      1999         2000      2001
totaled about $161
million. Primary                   Multilateral ODA           4.4     18.4      16.7    24.5         18.6    21.2          22.2     17.7      17.1
donors include                     Other countries' ODA      68.4      9.6      77.2    66.5         131.5   144.7     124.2        138.3     87.5
Germany, Japan, the                U.S. ODA                   1.2      4.6      1.1      6.7          2.2     4.7          18.6     37.0      51.0
United States, the
                              Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
European                      Note: Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as aid flows to a country provided by official
Commission, and the           agencies to promote economic development and welfare. ODA is reported as net disbursements and
United Nations.               reflects total inflows of grants and loans minus total outflows of loan repayments.
Page 20                                                                                GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure VIII
Demographics
Key indicators                                       Ethnic groups                                       Religions
Population (millions)       25.8                                                                                        Eastern
                                                                          Russian                                       Orthodox
Growth rate                  1.6                                           5.5%
                                                                                            Muslim                       9.0%
(percentage)
                                                                             Tajik          88.0%
Under 15 years old          35.5                                             5.0%
(percentage)
Life expectancy at          63.9                                             Kazakh
birth (years)                                                                 3.0%
Literacy (percentage)       99.0
   male                     99.0                                          Other
                                                                          6.6%
   female                   99.0
                                             Uzbek
Seats in lower or            7.2             80.0%
                                                                                                                          Other
single house held by                                                                                                      3.0%
women (percentage)
Sources: Global Insight, CIA, and United Nations Development Program.


Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government          Republic
Type of legal system        Evolution of Soviet civil law
Source: CIA.

Political rights and        Not free    6.5 Not free                                                                        Free
civil liberties             7                                                                                                  1

                            Unfree             6.0 Unfree                                                                   Free
Religious freedom           7                                                                                                  1


Economic freedom            Repressed        4.25 Repressed                                                                 Free
                            5                                                                                                  1

Corruption                  Highly corrupt           2.9 Corrupt                                                     Highly clean
                            0                                                                                                  10


Sources: Freedom House, Center for Religious Freedom, Heritage Foundation, and Transparency International.


Economics and Trade
Key indicators                                       1996          1997      1998         1999       2000       2001        2002
Gross domestic product (GDP)
(purchasing power parity,
2002 U.S. dollars in billions)                        61.9         63.4       66.3         69.1       71.8       75.1          79.3
Real GDP growth rate (percentage)                      1.6          2.5        4.4          4.3        4.0        4.5           5.7
GDP per capita (purchasing power
parity, 2002 U.S. dollars)                           2,701     2,717         2,786        2,862      2,933      3,013       3,129
Inflation (consumer prices, percentage)               54.0      71.0          29.0         29.1       24.9       27.3        25.1
Exports (U.S. dollars in billions)                     3.5       3.7            2.9         2.7        2.7        3.3         3.0
Imports (U.S. dollars in billions)                     4.2       3.8            2.7         2.6        2.5        3.1         2.8
External debt/exports ratio
(percentage)                                          67.4         70.2      120.6        157.7      170.1      154.7       175.6
Government expenditures as a percent
of GDP                                                39.9         32.5       33.1         31.0       29.5       27.0          25.6
Source: Global Insight.

Key Transnational Issues
• Increasing transshipment point for drugs from Afghanistan to Russia and Western Europe.
• Periodic incursions by radical Islamic groups based in Tajikistan and Afghanistan.
• Water and environmental disputes with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan (as a result of the shrinking of
  the Aral Sea); border disputes with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Source: CIA.



Page 21                                                                               GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
Enclosure IX



Sources
Map and land area: CIA World Factbook 2002, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.
Peace Corps volunteers: http://www.peacecorps.gov/indexf.cfm.
U.S. access to military facilities: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/centcom.htm.

U.S. Assistance
U.S. security and economic assistance: U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants Online (the Greenbook),
http://qesdb.cdie.org/gbk/index.html, Department of State Congressional Budget Justifications for fiscal years
2003 and 2004, http://www.state.gov/m/rm/c6112.htm, and the Department of Defense.

International Aid Flows
U.S., other countries’, and multilateral official development assistance (ODA): Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, net disbursements of official development assistance and official aid,
http://www.oecd.org/htm/M00005000/M00005347.htm.

Demographics
Population and growth rate: Global Insight, international online analysis, detailed forecast files, 2002,
http://www.globalinsight.com.
Percent of population under 15 years old, life expectancy at birth, and literacy rates: CIA World
Factbook 2002, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.
Percent of seats in lower or single house held by women: UNDP Human Development Indicators 2002,
http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2002/en/indicator/indicator.cfm?File=indic_513_1_1.html.
Major ethnic groups: CIA World Factbook 2002, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.
    • Pakistan: Pakistan: A Country Study, Library of Congress, 1994,
         http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/pktoc.html.
Major religions: CIA World Factbook 2002, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.

Governance, Rights, and Freedoms
Type of government and legal system: CIA World Factbook 2002,
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.
Political rights and civil liberties: Freedom House Freedom in the World 2001-2002,
http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2002/countries.htm.
Religious freedom: Freedom House Center for Religious Freedom, Religious Freedom in the World: A Global
Report on Freedom and Persecution, 2002, http://www.freedomhouse.org/religion/publications/rfiw/fig1.htm.
Economic freedom: The Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom, 2003
http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index.
Corruption: Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2002,
http://www.transparency.org/cpi/index.html#cpi.
    • Kyrgyzstan: Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 1999,
         http://www.transparency.org/cpi/index.html#cpi.

Economics and Trade
Economic and trade data: Global Insight, international online analysis, detailed forecast files,
http://www.globalinsight.com.
    • Afghanistan external debt: Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific
         Countries, 2002, http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/2002/default.asp.

Key Transnational Issues
CIA World Factbook 2002, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.

(320169)

Page 22                                                              GAO-03-634R Central and Southwest Asia
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