oversight

Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs

Published by the Government Accountability Office on 2012-03-29.

Below is a raw (and likely hideous) rendition of the original report. (PDF)

               United States Government Accountability Office

GAO            Report to Congressional Committees




March 2012
               DEFENSE
               ACQUISITIONS
               Assessments of
               Selected Weapon
               Programs




GAO-12-400SP
               A
                                                March 2012

                                                DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS
                                                Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs

Highlights of GAO-12-400SP, a report to
congressional committees




Why GAO Did This Study                          What GAO Found
This is GAO’s annual assessment of              The total estimated cost of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2011 portfolio of
DOD weapon system acquisitions, an              96 major defense acquisition programs stands at $1.58 trillion. In the past year,
area that is on GAO’s high-risk list. The       the total acquisition cost of these programs has grown by over $74.4 billion or 5
report is in response to the mandate in         percent, of which about $31.1 billion can be attributed to factors such as
the joint explanatory statement to the          inefficiencies in production, $29.6 billion to quantity changes, and $13.7 billion to
DOD Appropriations Act, 2009. It                research and development cost growth. DOD’s portfolio is dominated by a small
includes (1) observations on the cost           number of programs, with the Joint Strike Fighter accounting for the most cost
performance of DOD’s 2011 portfolio of          growth in the last year, and the largest projected future funding needs. The
96 major defense acquisition
                                                majority of the programs in the portfolio have lost buying power in the last year as
programs; (2) an assessment of the
                                                their program acquisition unit costs have increased. The number of programs in
knowledge attained by key junctures in
the acquisition process for 37 major
                                                the portfolio has decreased from 98 to 96 in the past year and, looking forward, is
defense acquisition programs, which             projected to decrease again next fiscal year to its lowest level since 2004.
were selected because they were in              Cost Growth over the Past Year for DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense Acquisition
development or early production; (3)            Programs (Fiscal Year 2012 Dollars in Billions)
observations on the implementation of
acquisition reforms, particularly for 16
future major defense acquisition
programs that are not yet in the
portfolio, which represent the best
opportunity to assess DOD’s progress
in this area. To conduct this review,
GAO analyzed cost, schedule, and
quantity data from DOD’s Selected
Acquisition Reports and collected data
from program offices on technology,
design, and manufacturing knowledge;
the use of knowledge-based
acquisition practices; and the
implementation of DOD’s acquisition
policy and acquisition reforms. GAO
also compiled individual assessments
of 68 weapon programs. Selection                In the past 3 years, GAO has reported that newer programs are demonstrating
factors include major defense                   higher levels of knowledge at key decision points. However, most of the 37
acquisition programs in development             programs GAO assessed this year are still not fully adhering to a knowledge-
or early production, future programs,           based acquisition approach. Of the eight programs from this group that passed
and recently cancelled programs.                through one of three key decision points in the acquisition process in the past
DOD agreed that cost growth has                 year, only one—Excalibur Increment Ib—implemented all of the applicable
occurred, but did not fully agree with          knowledge-based practices. As a result, most of these programs will carry
our metrics for measuring cost growth,          technology, design, and production risks into subsequent phases of the
stating that they did not adequately            acquisition process that could result in cost growth or schedule delays.
address when, why, and how it                   GAO also assessed the implementation of selected acquisition reforms and
occurred. GAO believes the report
                                                found that most of the 16 future programs we assessed have implemented key
directly addresses these distinctions.
                                                provisions of the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009. Programs
                                                have also started to implement new DOD initiatives, such as developing
                                                affordability targets and conducting “should cost” analysis. Finally, as could be
View GAO-12-400SP. For more information,
contact Michael J. Sullivan at (202) 512-4841   expected from the increased activity early in the acquisition cycle, the 16 future
or sullivanm@gao.gov.                           programs we assessed are planning to spend more funds in technology
                                                development than current major defense acquisition programs.
                                                                                             United States Government Accountability Office
Contents



Foreword                                                                                1


Letter                                                                                  3
           Observations on the Cost Performance of DOD’s 2011 Major Defense
             Acquisition Program Portfolio                                              5
           Observations from Our Assessment of Knowledge Attained by
             Programs That Have Not Yet Reached Full-Rate Production                   19
           Observations about DOD’s Implementation of Acquisition Policy
             Reforms                                                                   28
           Assessments of Individual Programs                                          35
           Two-Page Assessments of Individual Programs
             AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile (AARGM)                    41
             Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR)                                      43
             Apache Block IIIA (AB3A)                                                  45
             Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (Army IAMD)                       47
             B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 1               49
             BMDS: Aegis Ashore                                                        51
             BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IB         53
             BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IIA        55
             BMDS: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)                                57
             BMDS: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)                         59
             C-130 Avionics Modernization Program (AMP)                                61
             CH-53K - Heavy Lift Replacement                                           63
             CVN 78 Class                                                              65
             DDG 1000 Destroyer                                                        67
             E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (E-2D AHE)                                          69
             Excalibur Precision Guided Extended Range Artillery Projectile            71
             F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter)                                  73
             Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals (FAB-T)                 75
             Global Hawk (RQ-4A/B)                                                     77
             Global Positioning System (GPS) III                                       79
             GPS III OCX Ground Control Segment                                        81
             Gray Eagle Unmanned Aircraft System                                       83
             HC/MC-130 Recapitalization Program                                        85
             Integrated Defensive Electronic Countermeasures (IDECM) Block 4           87
             Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM)                                        89
             Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range (JASSM-ER)           91
             Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV)                                            93
             Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor 
                System (JLENS)                                                         95



           Page i                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Contents




  Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS)                97
  Airborne and Maritime/Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System 
     (AMF JTRS)                                                      99
  Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Handheld, Manpack, and Small 
     Form Fit (HMS)                                                 101
  KC-46 Tanker Modernization Program                                103
  LHA Replacement Amphibious Assault Ship                           105
  Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)                                        107
  Littoral Combat Ship–Mission Modules                              109
  Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)                               111
  MQ-4C Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) Unmanned Aircraft
     System (UAS)                                                   113
  Navy Multiband Terminal (NMT)                                     115
  P-8A Poseidon                                                     117
  Reaper Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)                             119
  Ship to Shore Connector (SSC)                                     121
  Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) Increment II                            123
  Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High Program                  125
  Space Fence                                                       127
  Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) Extended Range Active Missile (ERAM) 129
  Vertical Take-off and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle 
     (VTUAV)                                                        131
  Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 2       133
  Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 3       135
One-Page Assessments of Individual Programs
  Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) Satellite                137
  B-2 Defensive Management System (DMS) Modernization               138
  B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 2       139
  BMDS: Aegis BMD Standard Missile-3 Block IIB                      140
  Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH)                                    141
  Common Infrared Countermeasure (CIRCM)                            142
  Common Vertical Lift Support Platform (CVLSP)                     143
  DDG 51 Destroyer                                                  144
  Enhanced Polar System (EPS)                                       145
  Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV)                              146
  F-22 Modernization Increment 3.2B                                 147
  Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV)                                       148
  Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)                               149
  Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Ground Mobile Radios (GMR) 150
  Nett Warrior                                                      151
  Ohio-Class Replacement (OR)                                       152




Page ii                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                             Contents




                               Patriot/Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) Combined
                                 Aggregate Program (CAP) Fire Unit                                      153
                               Presidential Helicopter (VXX)                                            154
                               Three Dimensional Expeditionary Long Range Radar (3DELRR)                155
                               Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike 
                                 (UCLASS) System                                                        156
                             Agency Comments and Our Evaluation                                         157


Appendixes
               Appendix I:   Scope and Methodology                                                      160
              Appendix II:   Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                             Acquisition Programs over Time                                             171
             Appendix III:   Current and First Full Cost Estimates for DOD’s 2011
                             Portfolio of Major Defense Acquisition Programs                            172
              Appendix IV:   Knowledge-Based Acquisition Practices                                      178
              Appendix V:    Technology Readiness Levels                                                180
             Appendix VI:    Comments from the Department of Defense                                    182
             Appendix VII:   GAO Contact and Acknowledgments                                            184


Related GAO Products                                                                                    187


Tables                       Table 1: Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of 96 Major Defense
                                      Acquisition Programs over the Past Year                             7
                             Table 2: Change in Procurement Cost Due to Quantity Changes and
                                      Other Factors                                                       9
                             Table 3: Examples of Programs with Significant Research and
                                      Development Cost Growth in the Past Year                           10
                             Table 4: Ten Highest-Cost Acquisition Programs in 2011 
                                      Portfolio                                                          11
                             Table 5: Certification Waivers Granted for Programs in 2011                 32
                             Table 6: Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                      Acquisition Programs over Time                                    171
                             Table 7: Current Cost Estimates and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                      DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense Acquisition
                                      Programs                                                          172




                             Page iii                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
          Contents




Figures   Figure 1: Joint Strike Fighter as a Portion of 2011 Portfolio Cost
                     Growth                                                                          12
          Figure 2: Twenty Costliest Acquisition Programs by Funding
                     Needed to Complete                                                              14
          Figure 3: Programs Meeting High-Risk Cost Metrics                                          16
          Figure 4: Number of Programs in DOD Portfolio over the Past 10
                     Years                                                                           18
          Figure 5: DOD’s Acquisition Cycle and GAO Knowledge Points                                 20
          Figure 6: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by a
                     Program Beginning System Development in 2011                                    24
          Figure 7: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by
                     Programs Holding Critical Design Reviews in 2011                                26
          Figure 8: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by
                     Programs Holding Production Decisions in 2011                                   28
          Figure 9: Progress in Implementing Selected Reforms in Future
                     Major Defense Acquisition Programs                                              31
          Figure 10: Funding for Future and Current Programs during
                     Technology Development                                                          35
          Figure 11: Illustration of Program Two-Page Assessment                                     37
          Figure 12: Examples of Knowledge Scorecards                                                39

          Abbreviations

          BMDS                       Ballistic Missile Defense System
          CAPE                       Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation
          DAMIR                      Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval
          DOD                        Department of Defense
          MDA                        Missile Defense Agency
          MDAP                       major defense acquisition program
          MRL                        manufacturing readiness level
          NA                         not applicable
          OMB                        Office of Management and Budget
          RDT&E                      research, development, test, and evaluation
          SAR                        Selected Acquisition Report
          TBD                        to be determined
          TRL                        Technology Readiness Level

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          Page iv                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
A
United States Government Accountability Office
Washington, D.C. 20548
                                                                                             Comptroller General
                                                                                             of the United States




                                    March 29, 2012                                                                            Leter




                                    Congressional Committees

                                    I am pleased to present GAO’s annual assessment of selected weapon
                                    programs. This report provides a snapshot of how well the Department of
                                    Defense (DOD) is planning and executing its major defense acquisition
                                    programs—an item on GAO’s high-risk list and an area that we have
                                    identified as having the potential for significant cost savings in our first two
                                    reports on Opportunities to Reduce Potential Duplication in Government
                                    Programs, Save Tax Dollars, and Enhance Revenue.1 This year’s report
                                    offers observations on the performance of DOD’s $1.58 trillion portfolio of
                                    96 major defense acquisition programs. These observations serve as
                                    measures of DOD’s progress in managing weapon system cost growth
                                    and as indicators of potential challenges. This year’s report also includes
                                    assessments of the risks on 68 individual weapon programs. These
                                    assessments can assist DOD and Congress in making decisions about the
                                    programs they approve and fund in a budget-constrained environment.
                                    When we issued our first annual assessment in 2003, it included 26
                                    defense programs ranging from the Marine Corps’ Advanced Amphibious
                                    Assault Vehicle to the Missile Defense Agency’s Theater High Altitude
                                    Area Defense system. This edition still includes eight programs that
                                    appeared in the 2003 report, which is indicative of the lengthy
                                    development times and acquisition challenges that DOD has faced over
                                    the last 10 years.

                                    Since we began issuing this report, Congress and DOD have made
                                    noteworthy improvements in the legal and policy frameworks that govern
                                    weapon system acquisitions by mandating and encouraging a more
                                    knowledge-based approach to the development and production of major
                                    systems. These changes have led to some improvement in the knowledge
                                    attained by programs at key points in the acquisition process, but more still
                                    needs to be done. Practice has lagged behind policy in certain areas and
                                    we have not yet seen improvements in outcomes that are commensurate
                                    with the improvements in law and policy. In our review this year, we found


                                    1
                                     GAO, High Risk Series: An Update, GAO-11-278 (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 16, 2011); GAO,
                                    Opportunities to Reduce Potential Duplication in Government Programs, Save Tax Dollars,
                                    and Enhance Revenue, GAO-11-318SP (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2011); GAO, Follow-up
                                    on 2011 Report: Status of Actions Taken to Reduce Duplication, Overlap, and
                                    Fragmentation, Save Tax Dollars, and Enhance Revenue, GAO-12-453SP (Washington,
                                    D.C.: Feb. 28, 2012).




                                    Page 1                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
that the cost to develop and produce DOD’s current portfolio of major
defense acquisition programs grew by over $74.4 billion, of which about
$31.1 billion can be attributed to factors such as inefficiencies in
production, $29.6 billion to quantity changes, and $13.7 billion to research
and development cost growth. The implementation of knowledge-based
acquisition practices that might prevent or mitigate the potential for cost
growth has been uneven across the portfolio. For eight programs that
passed through one of three key decision points in the acquisition process
this year, only one implemented all of the applicable knowledge-based
practices. As a result, most of these programs will carry technology,
design, and production risks into subsequent phases of the acquisition
process that could result in cost growth or schedule delays.

There have been some positive developments, especially with regard to
DOD’s future major defense acquisition programs, which are now
approaching system development or will bypass system development for
production. We found that most of these future programs are implementing
acquisition reforms, such as competitive prototyping, early systems
engineering reviews, and acquisition strategies ensuring competition or
the option of competition, which have the potential to reduce risk and
improve outcomes. Some of these activities require higher upfront
investments in systems engineering and other areas to reduce longer term
development risk, and it will be important for decision makers to sustain
these investments when appropriate, even as DOD’s budgetary resources
shrink.




Gene L. Dodaro
Comptroller General of the United States




Page 2                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
A
United States Government Accountability Office
Washington, D.C. 20548



                                    March 29, 2012                                                                              Leter




                                    Congressional Committees

                                    This is GAO’s annual assessment of selected Department of Defense
                                    (DOD) weapon system acquisitions, an area that is on GAO’s high-risk list.
                                    The report is in response to the mandate in the joint explanatory statement
                                    to the DOD Appropriations Act, 2009, which requires us to perform an
                                    annual assessment.1 This report provides a snapshot of how well DOD is
                                    planning and executing its weapon programs. Congress and DOD have
                                    long explored ways to improve the acquisition of major weapon systems,
                                    yet programs are still incurring billions of dollars in cost growth. Given the
                                    prospect of decreased defense spending, including the possibility of over
                                    $1 trillion in sequestration and other budget cuts over the next 10 years,
                                    finding ways to prevent or mitigate cost growth is crucial to our national
                                    security. In the past 3 years, we have reported improvements in the
                                    knowledge that programs attained about technologies, design, and
                                    manufacturing processes at key points during the acquisition process.
                                    DOD policy and legislation emphasize key knowledge-based acquisition
                                    practices; however, we have found that most programs continue to
                                    proceed with less knowledge than recommended, putting them at higher
                                    risk for cost growth and schedule delays.

                                    This report includes (1) observations on the cost and schedule
                                    performance of DOD’s 2011 portfolio of 96 major defense acquisition
                                    programs, (2) our assessment of the knowledge attained at key junctures
                                    in the acquisition process for 37 weapon programs in development or early
                                    production, and (3) observations on the extent to which DOD is




                                    1
                                     See Explanatory Statement, 154 Cong. Rec. H 9427, 9526 (daily ed., Sept. 24, 2008), to
                                    the Department of Defense Appropriations Act Fiscal Year 2009, contained in Division C of
                                    the Consolidated Security, Disaster Assistance, and Continuing Appropriations Act, 2009,
                                    Pub. L. No. 110-329.




                                    Page 3                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
implementing acquisition reforms, particularly for 16 future major defense
acquisition programs.2

There are three sets of programs on which our observations are based in
this report:

• We assessed all 96 major defense acquisition programs in DOD’s 2011
  portfolio for our analysis of cost and schedule performance. To develop
  our observations, we obtained cost, schedule, and quantity data from
  DOD’s December 2010 Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR) and from
  the Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval Purview
  system. The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is excluded from
  these observations because comparable cost and quantity data are not
  available.

• We assessed 37 major defense acquisition programs that were mostly
  between the start of development and the early stages of production for
  our analysis of knowledge attained at key junctures and the
  implementation of acquisition reforms. To develop our observations, we
  obtained information on the extent to which the programs follow
  knowledge-based practices for technology maturity, design stability,
  and production maturity using a data-collection instrument. We also
  submitted a survey to program offices to collect information on systems
  engineering reviews, design stability, manufacturing planning and
  execution, and the implementation of specific acquisition reforms. We
  received survey responses from all 37 programs.

• We assessed an additional 16 future major defense acquisition
  programs that we selected because they were preparing to enter
  system development or production. These programs represent the best
  opportunity to assess DOD’s progress in implementing selected
  acquisition reforms. To develop our observations, we submitted a
  survey to program offices to collect information on the implementation

2
 Major defense acquisition programs are those identified by DOD that require eventual total
research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) expenditures, including all planned
increments, of more than $365 million, or procurement expenditures, including all planned
increments, of more than $2.19 billion, in fiscal year 2000 constant dollars. DOD has a list
of programs designated as pre–major defense acquisition programs (pre-MDAP). These
programs have not formally been designated as MDAPs; however, DOD plans for these
programs to enter system development, or bypass development and begin production, at
which point they will likely be designated as MDAPs. We refer to these programs as future
major defense acquisition programs throughout this report.




Page 4                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                         of these reforms and other data and received responses from all the
                         programs.

                      In addition to our observations, we present individual assessments of 68
                      weapon programs. Selection factors include major defense acquisition
                      programs in development or early production, future programs, and
                      recently cancelled programs.

                      We conducted this performance audit from August 2011 to March 2012 in
                      accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
                      Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain
                      sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
                      findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that
                      the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings based
                      on our audit objectives. Appendix I contains detailed information on our
                      scope and methodology.



Observations on the   The cost of DOD’s 2011 portfolio of major defense acquisition programs
                      continues to grow, and the delays in delivering capability to the warfighter
Cost Performance of   have gotten longer. Our analysis of the 96 programs in DOD’s 2011
DOD’s 2011 Major      portfolio of major defense acquisition programs allows us to make nine
                      observations.
Defense Acquisition
Program Portfolio




                      Page 5                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
    Cost Performance Observations

    1.   The estimated cost of DOD’s 2011 portfolio stands at about $1.58 trillion and has
         grown by over $74 billion or 5 percent in the past year.a

    2.   About $30 billion of this growth can be attributed to quantity changes within major
         defense acquisition programs; the other $45 billion is due to research and
         development cost growth and production inefficiencies.b

    3.   Many of the programs in the portfolio with the greatest growth in estimated research
         and development costs in the last year are already in production and either
         experienced growth because of lingering development issues or added funding for
         upgrades or modernization efforts.

    4.   The cost of the portfolio is driven by the 10 highest-cost programs, which account
         for 55 percent of its total cost.

    5.   The Joint Strike Fighter accounts for 21 percent of the total cost of the portfolio and
         52 percent, or about $39 billion, of the cost growth in the past year.

    6.   Ninety-one percent of the funding needed to complete the programs in the portfolio
         is for procurement, with most of that for a few large programs.

    7.   Over 60 percent of programs have lost buying power in the last year—as measured
         by an increase in program acquisition unit cost—depriving DOD of funding that
         could have been used for additional quantities or other priorities.

    8.   About 40 percent of the programs have experienced cost increases in the past year
         that exceed cost growth targets discussed by DOD, the Office of Management and
         Budget (OMB), and GAO; and over 50 percent exceeded the targets for growth in
         the past 5 years and since the first full estimate.

    9.   Looking forward, the number of programs in DOD’s 2012 portfolio is projected to be
         the smallest since 2004 as more programs continue to leave the portfolio than enter
         it—a positive sign that DOD is adjusting its number of programs to meet resources.
a
All dollar figures are in fiscal year 2012 constant dollars, unless otherwise noted.
b
 Discussion of growth in the 2011 portfolio does not include BMDS as DOD does not consider
adjustments to this system to represent cost growth because the program has been allowed to add 2
years of new funding with each biennial budget. See GAO, Missile Defense: Actions Needed to
Improve Transparency and Accountability, GAO-11-372 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 24, 2011) for an
assessment of the Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) cost, schedule, testing, and performance
progress in developing BMDS.


Additional details about each observation follow.

• The total cost of DOD’s 2011 portfolio of major defense acquisition
  programs has grown by over $74 billion, or 5 percent, in the last
  year. The over $74.4 billion in cost growth over the past year consists
  of a rise in development costs of $13.7 billion, or 4 percent, and an
  increase in procurement costs of $60.6 billion, or 5 percent. When



Page 6                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
    measured from their first full estimates, which have been put in place
    over a number of years, the growth in total acquisition cost for these
    programs is $447 billion, or 40 percent. In addition, programs continue
    to deliver capabilities later than anticipated, with the average delay
    increasing by 1 month in the past year, and averaging 23 months when
    measured against a program’s first full estimate. Table 1 shows the
    increases in programs’ estimated cost and schedule over the last year,
    and appendix II presents our analysis of cost growth and delays over
    the past 5 years and against first full estimates.



Table 1: Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of 96 Major Defense Acquisition Programs
over the Past Year

Fiscal year 2012 dollars in billions
                                                                        Estimated
                                       Estimated      Estimated          portfolio Percentage
                                    portfolio cost portfolio cost    growth since growth since
                                          in 2010         in 2011           2010a         2010
Total estimated                              $310           $324                $14               4%
research and
development cost
Total estimated                              1,160         1,221                 61                  5
procurement cost
Total estimated                              1,503         1,578                 74                  5
acquisition costb
Average delay in                                —             —            1 month                   2
delivering initial
capabilities
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

Note: Figures may not add due to rounding.
a
 The portfolio cost columns do not include the reported cost or cost growth of BMDS. DOD does not
consider changes in BMDS costs to represent cost growth because the program has been allowed to
add 2 years of new funding with each biennial budget.
b
 In addition to research and development and procurement costs, total acquisition cost includes
acquisition-related operation and maintenance and system-specific military construction costs. Details
on program costs used for this analysis are provided in app. III.


• Quantity changes account for almost $30 billion of the nearly $61
  billion in procurement cost growth over the last year. Of the $60.6
  billion in procurement cost growth realized in the past year, $29.6 billion
  
  
  



Page 7                                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
    is attributable to adjustments in quantities on 36 programs.3 Twenty-two
    programs experienced procurement cost increases due to added
    quantities. The Littoral Combat Ship reported its total planned
    procurement for the first time in 2010 and accounts for most of this
    increase.4 Fourteen programs experienced procurement cost
    decreases due to reductions in quantities. The Expeditionary Fighting
    Vehicle and Medium Extended Air Defense System, which had their
    production quantities reduced significantly after they were cancelled,
    account for most of the decrease. The remaining $31.1 billion in
    procurement cost growth cannot be attributed to quantity changes and
    is indicative of production problems and inefficiencies or flawed initial
    cost estimates. For example, the cost to procure the Joint Strike Fighter
    rose by almost $35 billion because of manufacturing inefficiencies,
    parts shortages, and quality issues; the number of aircraft procured did
    not change. Other programs, such as the Virginia-class submarine and
    the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, were able to reduce their expected
    procurement costs without reducing quantities, by improving production
    processes or negotiating contracts with terms more favorable to the
    government. Table 2 shows how procurement costs changed across
    the DOD portfolio due to changes in planned procurement quantities as
    well as other factors.




3
 To calculate the portion of procurement cost growth attributable to quantity changes, we
compared a program’s quantities from the December 2009 SAR with its quantities from the
December 2010 SAR. When quantities changed, we multiplied the change by the previous
average procurement unit cost, using the December 2009 SAR estimate where available,
to determine the expected cost growth or decrease due to these quantity changes. The
Joint Tactical Radio System Handheld, Manpack, and Small Form Fit changed the mix as
well as the quantity of radios procured but this change to radio type is not accounted for in
our calculations. The Gray Eagle unmanned aircraft program changed how it calculates
quantities for the 2010 SAR. We based our calculation on the change in procurement cost
due to quantity for that program on the number of aircraft procured to account for this. See
app. I for additional information on our scope and methodology.
4
 The Littoral Combat Ship program was initiated in May 2004 with an acquisition program
baseline that included 2 procurement-funded ships. The program did not report its total
planned procurement quantity of 53 ships until the December 2010 SAR.




Page 8                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Table 2: Change in Procurement Cost Due to Quantity Changes and Other Factors

Fiscal year 2012 dollars in billions
                                                          Estimated cost         Estimated cost
                                                         change directly     change not directly
                          Number of       Actual cost      attributable to        attributable to
                           programs          change     quantity changes       quantity changes
Programs with                       22          $53.6               $63.0                   -$9.3
quantity
increases
Programs with                       14          -28.1                -33.4                   5.2
quantity
decreases
Programs with                       59           35.2                   0                   35.2
no change in
quantity
Total                               95a         $60.6               $29.6                  $31.1
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

Note: Figures may not add due to rounding.
a
The analysis does not include BMDS.


• Many of the programs with the highest amounts of research and
  development cost growth in the last year are in production and are
  utilizing concurrent development and production strategies or
  funding modernization or upgrade efforts. Over the past year, the
  research and development cost associated with the 2011 portfolio has
  risen 4 percent, or roughly $14 billion, and programs in production
  account for the overwhelming majority of this growth. This runs counter
  to what one might expect, namely that programs in production are
  beyond the point of development cost increases. Table 3 lists examples
  of these programs and the reasons they cited for their research and
  development cost growth in the past year.




Page 9                                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Table 3: Examples of Programs with Significant Research and Development Cost
Growth in the Past Year

                                    Growth in
                                      last year
                                    (dollars in                                   Start of
Program                               millions) Reason for growth                 production
Joint Strike Fighter                   $3,922 Additional funding to reduce risk   2007
Space Based Infrared                      785 Additional funding needed to        2001
System High Program                           meet requirements
F-22 Raptor                               780 Additional funding for              2001
                                              modernization
P-8A Poseidon                             742 Additional funding for new          2010
                                              increment of capability, correction
                                              of deficiencies, and updated
                                              estimates
Virginia-class Submarine                  727 Additional funding for              1997
                                              enhancements, cost reduction
                                              initiatives, and testing
Global Hawk                               722 Additional funding for the          2001
                                              inclusion of new capabilities and
                                              testing
DDG 51 Destroyer                          656 Additional funding for the          1985
                                              inclusion of new capabilities
Trident II Missile                        624 Additional funding for              1987
                                              modernization and replacement
Apache Block IIIA                         506 Additional funding for software     2010
Remanufacture                                 development
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.


      Several of these programs, including the Joint Strike Fighter, Space
      Based Infrared System High, and Apache Block IIIA Remanufacture,
      have concurrent development and production strategies, which
      increases manufacturing risk and can result in increased cost and
      schedule if problems are discovered late in design or production. Other
      programs, such as the F-22 Raptor, Virginia-class submarine, DDG 51
      Destroyer, and Trident II Missile, have begun efforts to add capability to
      or modernize the system within the existing program. The P-8A
      Poseidon and Global Hawk have done both. According to DOD’s
      primary acquisition policy—Department of Defense Instruction
      5000.02—upgrades, improvements, and similar efforts that provide a
      significant increase in operational capability and meet the major
      defense acquisition program threshold should be managed as




Page 10                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
      separate increments.5 None of the efforts in these six programs were
      being managed as separate increments.

• The cost of the portfolio is driven by the 10 highest-cost
  programs, which account for 55 percent of the total. DOD’s portfolio
  of major defense acquisition programs is unbalanced. As shown in
  table 4, the 10 highest-cost programs account for 55 percent, or roughly
  $868 billion, of the 2011 portfolio’s $1.58 trillion total acquisition cost.
  These programs are also driving overall portfolio outcomes and
  account for over $53 billion, or about 72 percent, of the total cost growth
  for the portfolio in the past year. All 10 of these programs are currently
  in production and all but three—the Joint Strike Fighter, the CVN 78
  Class, and the P-8A Poseidon—have attained initial operational
  capability.



Table 4: Ten Highest-Cost Acquisition Programs in 2011 Portfolio

Fiscal year 2012 dollars in billions
                                                      Total acquisition   Percent of 2011
Program                                                           cost      portfolio cost
Joint Strike Fighter                                              $327                 21
DDG 51 Destroyer                                                   102                  6
Virginia-class Submarine                                            84                  5
F-22 Raptor                                                         79                  5
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet                                              58                  4
V-22 Osprey                                                         57                  4
Trident II Missile                                                  53                  3
Joint Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle                       42                  3
CVN 78 Class                                                        34                  2
P-8A Poseidon                                                       33                  2
Total                                                             $868                 55
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

Note: Figures may not add due to rounding.




5
 Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02, Operation of the Defense Acquisition System
enc. 2, para. 2.(c) (Dec. 8, 2008).




Page 11                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                            • The Joint Strike Fighter is driving much of DOD’s poor portfolio
                                              performance and it will continue to drive outcomes for the
                                              foreseeable future. Among the 96 programs in DOD’s 2011 portfolio,
                                              the Joint Strike Fighter is the costliest, the poorest performer in terms of
                                              cost growth, and the program with the largest remaining funding needs.
                                              The Joint Strike Fighter accounts for 21 percent, or nearly $327 billion,
                                              of the planned total acquisition cost of the portfolio. It is also
                                              responsible for the most significant research and development,
                                              procurement, and total acquisition cost growth in the past year, as
                                              shown in figure 1. This growth took place without any change in
                                              procurement quantities by the program.



Figure 1: Joint Strike Fighter as a Portion of 2011 Portfolio Cost Growth




                                            • Most of the remaining funding for the 2011 portfolio is for
                                              procurement. Over 91 percent of the almost $705 billion needed to
                                              complete the programs in the 2011 portfolio consists of procurement
                                              funding; therefore, any future funding cuts to these programs will likely
                                              result in quantity reductions. The Joint Strike Fighter program alone is
                                              expected to account for 38 percent—or almost $246 billion—of the
                                              future procurement funding needed. This amount is enough to fund the
                                              remaining procurement costs of the next 15 largest programs. Figure 2



                                            Page 12                         GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
   shows the funding spent and still needed for the 20 programs with the
   highest remaining funding needs.




Page 13                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 2: Twenty Costliest Acquisition Programs by Funding Needed to Complete




                                        Page 14                       GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Note: BMDS is excluded from this analysis. JTRS GMR is the Joint Tactical Radio System Ground
Mobile Radios; this program was terminated during the course of our review. WIN-T Increment 3 is the
third increment of the Warfighter Information Network-Tactical program. BAMS UAS is the Broad Area
Maritime Surveillance Unmanned Aircraft System. E-2D AHE is the Advanced Hawkeye. HC/MC-130
Recap is the recapitalization program for the HC/MC-130 aircraft. Patriot/MEADS CAP is the
Patriot/Medium Extended Air Defense System Combined Aggregate Program. AMF JTRS is the
Airborne and Maritime/Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System. CHEM-DEMIL ACWA is Chemical
Demilitarization-Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives.


• Buying power, as measured by program acquisition unit cost, has
  decreased for over 60 percent of programs over the past year. Of
  the 96 programs or components in DOD’s portfolio that reported
  program acquisition unit cost data, 61 are planning to deliver
  capabilities at higher unit costs than estimated a year ago while 35 are
  planning to deliver capabilities at or below the same estimates.6 Unit
  costs are sensitive to how many are being bought. If quantities are
  decreased, unit costs would be expected to go up and vice versa.
  However, only 11 of the 61 programs with unit-cost increases in the
  past year decreased quantities in the past year, indicating that unit-cost
  growth in the other 50 cases was due to actual research and
  development or procurement cost growth—not changes in quantities.
  We did not examine whether these programs delivered a higher or
  lower level of performance than initially planned.

• Less than half of the programs in the 2011 portfolio met cost-
  growth targets used to measure DOD’s progress on addressing
  GAO’s weapon system acquisition high-risk area. In December
  2008, DOD, OMB, and GAO discussed a set of cost growth metrics and
  goals to evaluate DOD’s progress on improving program performance
  for purposes of our high-risk report. These metrics were designed to
  capture total cost-growth performance over 1-year and 5-year periods
  as well as from the original program estimate on a percentage basis as
  opposed to dollar amount to control for the disparity in the amount of
  funding between programs. As shown in figure 3, 40 percent of major
  defense acquisition programs did not meet the criteria for less than 2


6
 Program acquisition unit cost is the total cost for development, procurement, acquisition
operation and maintenance, and system-specific military construction for the acquisition
program divided by the number of items to be produced. DOD’s 2011 portfolio includes 96
programs with SARs; however, DOD’s SAR summary tables break down several of these
programs into smaller elements. We did not include BMDS or the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System because comparable cost and quantity data
were not available, or the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle and Patriot/Medium Extended Air
Defense System Combined Aggregate Program Fire Unit, because these programs were
cancelled.




Page 15                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
   percent growth in total acquisition cost over the past year, and over half
   did not meet the less than 10 percent metric for growth over a 5-year
   period and the less than 15 percent metric from their first full estimate.
   When measured against the same criteria for growth using program
   acquisition unit cost or average procurement unit cost, the percent of
   programs that do not meet the criteria remain roughly the same.



Figure 3: Programs Meeting High-Risk Cost Metrics




Notes: The number of programs represents those in the 2011 portfolio—those with December 2010
SARs—which break down several programs into smaller elements for reporting purposes. One
program, Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload (ASIP), was not included in the 5-year comparisons
because data were not available to make that comparison. BMDS was not included in this analysis.


• The number of programs in DOD’s portfolio decreased in fiscal
  year 2011 and, looking forward, is expected to decrease again in
  the next fiscal year to its lowest level since 2004. DOD’s portfolio for
  2011 contains 96 major defense acquisition programs, a net decrease
  of 2 since last year. Six programs left the portfolio and four programs
  


Page 16                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
    entered.7 The six programs that left the portfolio cost an estimated $108
    billion to develop and produce, and the four new entries are expected to
    cost $29 billion. Based on DOD data on programs that will enter and
    exit the portfolio in fiscal year 2011, we project that the number of
    programs and DOD’s total planned investment in them will decrease
    again in the next fiscal year.8 As shown in figure 4, the expected
    decrease would reduce the number of programs to its lowest level since
    2004.




7
 The six programs that exited the portfolio were Bradley armored fighting vehicle upgrade,
C-17A aircraft, CVN 68 aircraft carrier, EA-6B Improved Capability III aircraft, Minuteman III
Propulsion Replacement Program, and the MQ-1B Predator unmanned aircraft. The four
that entered were Apache Block IIIB New Build helicopter, HC/MC-130 Recapitalization
program, KC-130J aircraft, and Small Diameter Bomb Increment II.
8
 The programs exiting the portfolio in 2012 will do so because of cancellation or delivery of
90 percent of end items. Programs include: Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload,
Advanced Threat Infrared Countermeasure/Common Missile Warning System, B-2 Radar
Modernization Program, C-5 Avionics Modernization Program, Expeditionary Fighting
Vehicle, F-22 Raptor, Force XXI Battle Command Brigade and Below, Increment 1 Early-
Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Joint Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle, Large
Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures, Longbow Apache, Space Based Space Surveillance
Block 10, and the Lewis and Clark-class Dry Cargo/Ammunition ship (T-AKE). The one
program that is currently scheduled to become a major defense acquisition program and
begin annual selected acquisition reporting in fiscal year 2012 is the KC-46 Tanker
Modernization Program.




Page 17                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 4: Number of Programs in DOD Portfolio over the Past 10 Years




Note: The 2009 portfolio is excluded because there were no annual SARs released for 2008. The 2012
portfolio is projected from DOD data.


    It is not clear whether this reduction in the number of programs in the
    portfolio is the result of DOD’s recognition of the increasing constraints
    on the defense budget and the beginning of a longer-term trend or
    whether it is a 1-year anomaly resulting from a number of large and
    capital-intense programs, such as F-22 and the Joint Mine Resistant
    Ambush Protected vehicle, leaving the portfolio. Regardless, if the cost
    growth of the programs remaining in the portfolio can be controlled, the
    end result would be a better balance between the number of programs
    and DOD’s available resources.




Page 18                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Observations from Our   Positive acquisition outcomes require the use of a knowledge-based
                        approach to product development that demonstrates high levels of
Assessment of           knowledge before significant commitments are made. In essence,
Knowledge Attained by   knowledge supplants risk over time. In our past work examining weapon
                        acquisitions and best practices for product development, we have found
Programs That Have      that leading commercial firms and successful DOD programs pursue an
Not Yet Reached Full-   acquisition approach that is anchored in knowledge, whereby high levels
Rate Production         of product knowledge are demonstrated by critical points in the acquisition
                        process.9 On the basis of this work, we have identified three key
                        knowledge points during the acquisition cycle—development start, critical
                        design review, and production start—at which programs need to
                        demonstrate critical levels of knowledge to proceed.10 Figure 5 aligns the
                        acquisition milestones described in DOD’s primary acquisition policy with
                        these knowledge points. In this report, we refer to DOD’s engineering and
                        manufacturing development phase as system development. Production
                        start typically refers to a program’s entry into low-rate initial production.




                        9
                         GAO, Best Practices: Better Management of Technology Development Can Improve
                        Weapon System Outcomes, GAO/NSIAD-99-162 (Washington, D.C.: July 30, 1999); GAO,
                        Best Practices: Better Matching of Needs and Resources Will Lead to Better Weapon
                        System Outcomes, GAO-01-288 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 8, 2001); GAO, Best Practices:
                        Capturing Design and Manufacturing Knowledge Early Improves Acquisition Outcomes,
                        GAO-02-701 (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2002); GAO, Defense Acquisitions: A
                        Knowledge-Based Funding Approach Could Improve Major Weapon System Program
                        Outcomes, GAO-08-619 (Washington, D.C.: July 2, 2008); GAO, Best Practices: High
                        Levels of Knowledge at Key Points Differentiate Commercial Shipbuilding from Navy
                        Shipbuilding, GAO-09-322 (Washington, D.C.: May 13, 2009); GAO, Best Practices: DOD
                        Can Achieve Better Outcomes by Standardizing the Way Manufacturing Risks Are
                        Managed, GAO-10-439 (Washington, D.C: Apr. 22, 2010).
                        10
                         For shipbuilding programs, we have identified two key knowledge points during the
                        acquisition cycle—detail design contract award and fabrication start.




                        Page 19                         GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 5: DOD’s Acquisition Cycle and GAO Knowledge Points




                                        The building of knowledge consists of information that should be gathered
                                        at these three critical points over the course of a program:

                                        Knowledge point 1: Resources and requirements match. Achieving a
                                        high level of technology maturity by the start of system development is one
                                        of several important indicators of whether this match has been made. This
                                        means that the technologies needed to meet essential product
                                        requirements have been demonstrated to work in their intended
                                        environment. In addition, the developer should complete a series of
                                        systems engineering reviews culminating in a preliminary design of the
                                        product that shows the design is feasible. Constraining the development
                                        phase of a program to 5 to 6 years is also recommended because it aligns
                                        with DOD’s budget planning process and increases funding predictability.
                                        For shipbuilding programs, critical technologies should be matured into
                                        actual system prototypes and successfully demonstrated in a realistic
                                        environment before a contract is awarded for detail design of a new ship.

                                        Knowledge point 2: Product design is stable. This point occurs when a
                                        program determines that a product’s design will meet customer
                                        requirements, as well as cost, schedule, and reliability targets. A best
                                        practice is to achieve design stability at the system-level critical design
                                        review, usually held midway through system development. Completion of
                                        at least 90 percent of engineering drawings at this point provides tangible
                                        evidence that the product’s design is stable, and a prototype
                                        demonstration shows that the design is capable of meeting performance



                                        Page 20                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
requirements. Shipbuilding programs should demonstrate design stability
by completing 100 percent of the basic and functional drawings as well as
the three-dimensional product model, when employed, by the start of
construction for a new ship. Programs can also improve the stability of
their design by conducting reliability growth testing and completing failure
modes and effects analyses so fixes can be incorporated before
production begins. At this point, programs should also begin preparing for
production by identifying manufacturing risks, key product characteristics,
and critical manufacturing processes.

Knowledge point 3: Manufacturing processes are mature. This point is
achieved when it has been demonstrated that the developer can
manufacture the product within cost, schedule, and quality targets. A best
practice is to ensure that all critical manufacturing processes are in
statistical control—that is, they are repeatable, sustainable, and capable of
consistently producing parts within the product’s quality tolerances and
standards—at the start of production. Demonstrating critical processes on
a pilot production line is an important initial step in this effort. In addition,
production and postproduction costs are minimized when a fully
integrated, capable prototype is demonstrated to show that the system will
work as intended in a reliable manner before committing to production. We
did not assess shipbuilding programs for this knowledge point due to
differences in the production processes used to build ships.

A knowledge-based acquisition approach is a cumulative process in which
certain knowledge is acquired by key decision points before proceeding.
Demonstrating technology maturity is a prerequisite for moving forward
into system development, during which the focus should be on design and
integration. A stable and mature design is likewise a prerequisite for
moving forward into production where the focus should be on efficient
manufacturing. Additional details about key practices at each of the
knowledge points can be found in appendix IV.

Overall, we assessed the knowledge attained by key junctures in the
acquisition process for 37 individual weapon programs, which are mostly
in development or early production.11 In particular, we focused on the eight


11
 Not all programs provided information for every knowledge point or had reached all of the
knowledge points—development start, design review, and production start. Because
knowledge points and best practices differ for shipbuilding programs, we exclude the five
shipbuilding programs in our assessment from some of our analysis.




Page 21                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
programs from this group that progressed through key acquisition points in
2011—one program began system development, four programs held
critical design reviews, and three programs began production. Only one of
these eight programs—Excalibur Increment Ib—implemented all of the
applicable knowledge-based acquisition practices at these points; and
overall, most of the 37 programs we assessed are not fully adhering to a
knowledge-based approach, putting them at higher risk of cost growth and
schedule delays. Our analysis of the eight programs that went through key
acquisition points in 2011 allows us to make three observations.


 Knowledge Point Observations

 1.   The one program that began system development in 2011 did so with all of its
      critical technologies nearing maturity, but without demonstrating them in a realistic
      environment.

 2.   Three of four programs that held critical design reviews in 2011 did so with stable
      designs, but only one tested an integrated prototype to demonstrate that the design
      was capable of meeting performance requirements.

 3.   One of the three programs that held a production decision in 2011 reported that its
      critical manufacturing processes were in control; one of the three programs
      demonstrated their production processes on a pilot production line; and two of the
      three programs tested production-representative prototypes to demonstrate reliable
      performance.


Additional detail about these observations follows.

• The only program in our assessment that began development in
  2011 did so with all of its critical technologies nearing maturity,
  but without demonstrating them in a realistic environment. The
  KC-46 tanker began development with all its critical technologies at
  least nearing maturity—that is, demonstrated in a relevant
  environment—in accordance with DOD policy and statutory
  requirements.12 Models of these technologies were demonstrated on
  other aircraft or in simulations. However, knowledge-based acquisition


12
  According to DOD policy, in order to be considered mature enough to use in product
development, technology shall have been demonstrated in a relevant environment or,
preferably, in an operational environment. Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02,
Operation of the Defense Acquisition System, enc. 2, para. 5.d(4). In addition, a major
defense acquisition program may not receive milestone B approval (development start)
until the milestone decision authority certifies that the technology in the program has been
demonstrated in a relevant environment. 10 U.S.C. § 2366b(a)(3)(D).




Page 22                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
     practices recommend and DOD policy prefers that programs fully
     mature technologies and demonstrate them in a realistic or operational
     environment prior to entering system development, to gain additional
     knowledge about the technologies’ form, fit, and function as well as the
     effect of the intended environment on those technologies.13 Our
     analysis of the 37 programs in our assessment that provided
     technology data shows that 20 programs reported having all critical
     technologies at least nearing maturity prior to entering system
     development, with only 4 of those fully maturing their technologies. Of
     the five shipbuilding programs we assessed, only one had all its critical
     technologies fully mature before awarding its detailed design contract,
     the point at which technology maturity should be achieved.
     
     Key acquisition practices also recommend, and statute requires, that
     programs hold systems engineering events, such as a preliminary
     design review, before development start to ensure that requirements
     are defined and feasible and that the proposed design can meet those
     requirements within cost, schedule, and other system constraints.14 The
     KC-46 program received a waiver to enter development without
     conducting a preliminary design review, and plans to hold it in March
     2012, about 13 months after development start. Overall, 29 of the 37
     programs we assessed failed to hold preliminary design reviews prior to
     the start of development or the award of their detailed design contracts.
     Our analysis shows that these programs experienced, on average,
     more research and development cost growth and total acquisition cost
     growth than programs that held the review before these points.
     
     Knowledge-based acquisition practices also recommend limiting the
     time a program or an increment of a program spends in development to
     
     
     


13
  Demonstration in a relevant environment is Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6.
Demonstration in a realistic environment is TRL 7. See app. V for a detailed description of
TRLs.
14
 GAO, Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs, GAO-09-
326SP (Mar. 30, 2009). A major defense acquisition program may not receive milestone B
approval until the program has held a preliminary design review and the milestone decision
authority has conducted a formal postpreliminary design review assessment and certified
on the basis of such assessment that the program demonstrates a high likelihood of
accomplishing its intended mission. 10 U.S.C. § 2366b(a)(2).




Page 23                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
     5 or 6 years, and the KC-46 program plans to do so.15 Constraining
     development time in this manner increases the predictability of funding
     needs as well as the likelihood of program success. Of the 32 programs
     whose development cycles we assessed, 21 currently plan to constrain
     their development time to 6 years or less. We did not assess
     shipbuilding programs against this metric as their development cycles
     do not align in a manner consistent with other programs. Figure 6
     summarizes the KC-46 program’s implementation of knowledge-based
     acquisition practices related to development start.



Figure 6: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by a Program Beginning
System Development in 2011




• Three of four programs in our assessment that held a critical
  design review in 2011 demonstrated that their designs were stable,
  but only one showed that its design would perform as intended.
  Knowing a product’s design is stable before system demonstration
  reduces the risk of costly design changes occurring during
  manufacturing of production-representative prototypes—when
  investments in acquisition become more significant. For shipbuilding


15
  Additionally, DOD policy provides that a condition for exiting the technology development
phase is that a system or increment can be developed for production within a short time
frame, defined as normally less than 5 years for weapon systems. Department of Defense
Instruction 5000.02, Operation of the Defense Acquisition System, enc. 2, para. 5.d(7).




Page 24                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
   programs, starting fabrication of the lead ship with a stable design can
   minimize out-of-sequence work and rework, as Navy lead ships often
   become the platform upon which planned capabilities are eventually
   proven. Three of the four programs that completed a critical design
   review in 2011 stabilized their designs by releasing at least 90 percent
   of their total expected design drawings. Overall, 8 of the 37 programs
   we assessed released over 90 percent of their total expected design
   drawings before holding a critical design review or, for ships,
   demonstrated stable designs by completing 100 percent of their three-
   dimensional design models prior to the start of fabrication.
   
   We have previously reported that early system prototypes are useful to
   demonstrate that the design will work as anticipated and can be built
   within cost and schedule. Only one of the four programs that held its
   critical design review in 2011—the Excalibur Increment Ib—
   demonstrated that its design was capable of meeting performance
   requirements by testing an integrated prototype before the design
   review. On average, the other three programs plan to test an integrated
   prototype 15 months after the critical design review, similar to the 13-
   month average we reported in last year’s assessment. Overall, only 5 of
   the 32 programs we assessed for this purpose tested a system-level
   integrated prototype by the time of their critical design review. We did
   not assess shipbuilding programs against this metric as testing a
   system-level prototype in these programs may not be practical.
   
   Reliability growth testing provides visibility over how reliability is
   improving and uncovers design problems so fixes can be incorporated
   before production begins. Three of the four programs that held a critical
   design review in 2011 established a reliability growth curve. Overall, 18
   of the 37 programs we assessed had a reliability growth curve by the
   same point. Figure 7 shows how the four programs that held critical
   design reviews in 2011 performed against these and other knowledge-
   based practices.




Page 25                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 7: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by Programs Holding
Critical Design Reviews in 2011




Note: BAMS UAS is the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance Unmanned Aircraft System. SDB II is the
Small Diameter Bomb Increment II.


• One of the three programs that held a production decision in 2011
  had its critical manufacturing processes in control; one of the
  three demonstrated production processes on a pilot production
  line; and two of the three tested production-representative
  prototypes. Capturing critical manufacturing knowledge before
  entering production helps ensure that a weapon system will work as
  intended and can be manufactured efficiently to meet cost, schedule,
  and quality targets. For example, bringing processes under statistical
  control reduces variations in parts manufacturing, thus reducing the
  potential for defects, and is generally less costly than performing
  extensive inspection after a product is built. One of the three programs
  that held a production decision in 2011—Global Positioning System



Page 26                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
     III—provided data that demonstrated its critical manufacturing
     processes were in control at production start.16 Overall, 4 of the 32
     programs in our production assessment provided data demonstrating
     their critical processes were in control. It is also DOD policy for
     manufacturing processes to be effectively demonstrated in a pilot-line
     environment before entering production.17 One of the three programs
     that held a production decision in 2011—Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff
     Missile–Extended Range (JASSM-ER)—demonstrated its critical
     processes on a pilot production line. Overall, 26 of 32 programs
     reported that they have or planned to demonstrate their critical
     processes on a pilot line before production start.
     
     Production and postproduction costs are also minimized when a fully
     integrated, capable prototype is demonstrated to show that the system
     will work as intended in a reliable manner. Since 2008, DOD policy has
     also required that a system be demonstrated in its intended
     environment using a production-representative article before entering
     production, which has led to an increase in the number and percentage
     of programs doing so.18 Two of three programs that held production
     decisions in 2011 tested production-representative prototypes before
     committing to production. Overall, according to our analysis of survey
     results, one of the six programs that held their production decisions
     prior to 2009 tested production-representative prototypes prior to
     production start; and 15 of the 24 programs that have held or will hold
     production decisions after 2009 have tested or plan to test a
     production-representative prototype before those decisions. Figure 8
     shows how the three programs that held production decisions in 2011
     performed against relevant knowledge-based practices.




16
  In addition to using Process Capability Index data to determine whether critical processes
are in control, we used data from manufacturing readiness level assessments of the
process capability and control sub-thread to assess production process maturity. For more
information on our methodology see app. I.
17
  Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02, Operation of the Defense Acquisition
System, enc. 2, para. 6 (c)(6)(d).
18
 Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02, Operation of the Defense Acquisition
System, enc. 2, para. 6 (c)(6)(d).




Page 27                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                        Figure 8: Implementation of Knowledge-Based Practices by Programs Holding
                        Production Decisions in 2011




                        Note: GPS III is the Global Positioning System III. JASSM-ER is the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff
                        Missile–Extended Range. JTRS HMS is the Joint Tactical Radio System Handheld, Manpack, and
                        Small Form Fit.
                        a
                         Critical technologies for the GPS III were demonstrated in a relevant environment which is considered
                        mature for satellites.




Observations about      In the past few years, a number of acquisition reform initiatives have been
                        introduced both through legislation and through efforts undertaken by
DOD’s Implementation    DOD; specifically the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009,
of Acquisition Policy   the reissuance of DOD Instruction 5000.02, and the Under Secretary of
                        Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics’ “Better Buying Power”
Reforms                 memorandum.19 We assessed the implementation of four sections of the
                        Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, including requirements
                        for major defense acquisition programs to: (1) conduct preliminary design


                        19
                         Pub. L. No. 111-23. Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02, Operation of the Defense
                        Acquisition System (Dec. 8, 2008); Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Acquisition,
                        Technology and Logistics Memorandum: “Better Buying Power: Guidance for Obtaining
                        Greater Efficiency and Productivity in Defense Spending” (Sept. 14, 2010).




                        Page 28                              GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
reviews before development start; (2) demonstrate capabilities using
competitive prototypes; (3) ensure that appropriate trade-offs among cost,
schedule, and performance objectives are considered before development
start; and (4) include measures to ensure competition or the option of
competition throughout the programs’ life cycle in their acquisition
strategies. We also assessed a new requirement from the 2008 revision to
DOD Instruction 5000.02 for a materiel development decision prior to a
program’s entry into the acquisition process and two initiatives from DOD’s
September 2010 better buying power memorandum focusing on
affordability and “should cost” targets. Many of these reforms and others
depend on increased investments of time and resources at the beginning
of the acquisition process and encourage an awareness of cost
performance throughout a program’s life cycle. Increased funding of
technology development can have beneficial effects for acquisition
programs if the funds are spent on activities appropriate for that phase,
such as prototype demonstrations and systems engineering analysis.

Our analysis of 16 future and 37 current major defense acquisition
programs allows us to make three observations concerning DOD’s
progress in implementing these reforms.


 Acquisition Reform Observations

 1.   Almost all of the future major defense acquisition programs we assessed have
      implemented or plan to implement acquisition reforms from the Weapon Systems
      Acquisition Reform Act of 2009; current programs have a mixed record in regards
      to implementing certification requirements from the act, such as considering
      appropriate trade-offs among cost, schedule, and performance objectives.

 2.   Some future programs have not implemented the new DOD policy requirement to
      hold a materiel development decision, and many future and current programs are
      still working to implement new initiatives, such as developing affordability targets
      and conducting "should cost" analysis.

 3.   The 16 future major defense acquisition programs we assessed are investing more
      funds before entering system development or production than current major
      defense acquisition programs, which should reduce their technical risk.


Additional information about these observations follows.

• Almost all future programs have implemented, or plan to
  implement, most of the legislative reforms we examined. Current
  programs have waived several of the newest certification
  requirements. The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009



Page 29                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
     introduced a requirement for a preliminary design review to be held for
     all major defense acquisition programs before the start of system
     development.20 Eleven of the 16 future major defense acquisition
     programs in our assessment intend to conduct such a review in
     accordance with the act. Four of the remaining programs have not yet
     established a date for their preliminary design reviews; the fifth program
     is not required to hold a preliminary design review because it expects to
     enter the acquisition cycle at production start.
     
     The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 also requires the
     acquisition strategy for major defense acquisition programs to provide
     for use of competitive prototypes before a program enters system
     development, which can provide a program with an opportunity to
     reduce technical risk, refine requirements, validate designs and cost
     estimates, and evaluate manufacturing processes. According to the
     results of our survey, 13 of the 16 future programs in our assessment
     intend to develop prototypes of the proposed weapon system or key
     subsystems before development start. Three programs do not intend to
     use prototyping and two of those programs intend to seek a waiver from
     the prototyping requirement, as provided by the act. The program that
     does not intend to seek the waiver—the Common Vertical Lift Support
     Platform—is proceeding directly to production and the competitive
     prototyping requirement is not applicable.
     
     A requirement for major defense acquisition programs to have
     acquisition strategies that ensure competition or the option of
     competition throughout the acquisition life cycle was also included in
     the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009.21 Use of
     competition throughout a program’s life cycle can help to reduce
     program costs. Measures to ensure competition or the option of
     competition may include developing competitive prototypes, using
     modular open architectures to enable competition for upgrades, and
     holding periodic system or program reviews to address long-term
     competitive effects of program decisions. Eleven of the 16 future
     programs in our assessment intend to use these measures or options
     after development start. Figure 9 summarizes the progress in
     implementing selected acquisition reforms for future programs.


20
 Pub. L. No. 111-23, § 205(a).
21
 Pub. L. No. 111-23, § 202.




Page 30                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 9: Progress in Implementing Selected Reforms in Future Major Defense Acquisition Programs




                                              The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 also required,
                                              as part of a mandatory program certification prior to development start,
                                              an analysis that appropriate trade-offs among cost, schedule, and
                                              performance objectives have been made to ensure the program is
                                              affordable.22 The mandatory certification also requires that, before
                                              development start, a major defense acquisition program hold a

                                         22
                                          Pub. L. No. 111-23, § 201(f).




                                         Page 31                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
      preliminary design review, have technology demonstrated in a relevant
      environment, have completed cost and schedule estimates with
      concurrence of the Director of Cost Assessment and Program
      Evaluation (CAPE), have funding available to execute the
      development and production of the program, perform an analysis to
      consider other alternatives, and have program requirements approved
      by the Joint Requirements Oversight Council. A waiver may be granted
      for any one or more provisions of this certification if it is determined
      that without the waiver the department would be unable to meet critical
      national security objectives. As shown in table 5, all three programs
      that received this certification in the past year—the KC-46 tanker,
      Littoral Combat Ship Seaframe, and DDG 1000 Destroyer—were
      granted waivers for multiple certification provisions.



Table 5: Certification Waivers Granted for Programs in 2011

Program                              Waiver granted
KC-46 tanker                         Trade-offs considered
                                     Full funding availability
                                     Preliminary design review held
Littoral Combat Ship Seaframe Trade-offs considered
                              Cost and schedule estimates with CAPE concurrence
                              Full funding availability
DDG 1000 Destroyer                   Trade-offs considered
                                     Full funding availability
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

Note: The DDG 1000 Destroyer program was required to be recertified following a Nunn-McCurdy unit-
cost breach of the critical threshold. A breach of the critical cost growth threshold occurs when the
program’s acquisition unit cost or the procurement unit cost increases by at least 25 percent over the
current baseline estimate or at least 50 percent over the original baseline estimate. 10 U.S.C. § 2433.


• Some future programs have not implemented a DOD policy
  requirement to hold a materiel development decision, and a
  majority of future and current programs are still working to
  implement initiatives on developing affordability and “should
  cost” targets. In 2008, DOD revised its primary acquisition policy to
  require a materiel development decision review as the formal entry
  point into the acquisition process. This review determines the
  acquisition phase where a program will enter the acquisition
  management system, and approves the parameters for analyzing the
  alternatives that might be able to address a defined capability need. Six
  of the 16 future programs we assessed have held or intend to hold this



Page 32                              GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
     review.23 Of the 10 future programs that did not hold a materiel
     development decision review, three—Three Dimensional Expeditionary
     Long Range Radar, Air and Missile Defense Radar, and Space Fence—
     began their respective technology development phases after DOD’s
     policy instruction was revised in 2008.24
     
     In September 2010, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
     Technology and Logistics issued a memorandum intended to promote
     greater efficiency and productivity in defense spending. The
     memorandum emphasizes the need to treat affordability, defined as
     conducting a program at a cost constrained by the resources that DOD
     can allocate, as a key requirement akin to speed or power, and
     mandates establishing an affordability target at program start.
     According to our analysis of survey responses, 4 of the 16 future and
     19 of the 37 current major defense acquisition programs we assessed
     have established affordability targets. For example, the Navy’s planned
     Ohio-class submarine replacement program established an affordability
     target at the start of technology development. To assist in meeting this
     target, the Navy is working to identify areas where costs can be
     controlled by using existing technologies and aligning the program’s
     production with the Virginia-class submarine. By incorporating these
     measures, the Navy expects to reduce the estimated cost of each
     submarine from $5.6 billion to $4.9 billion.
     
     The Under Secretary’s initiatives also emphasize the importance of
     driving cost improvements during contract negotiation and program
     execution. In accordance with direction provided in the memorandum,
     each program must conduct a “should cost” analysis justifying each
     element of the program with the aim of reducing negotiated prices for
     contracts. According to our analysis of survey responses, 6 of the 16
     future and 23 of the 37 current major defense acquisition programs we
     assessed indicate that they have completed this type of analysis. For


23
  These programs include: B-2 Defensive Management System Modernization, Common
Vertical Lift Support Platform, Ground Combat Vehicle, Combat Rescue Helicopter, Ohio-
class Replacement, and Ship to Shore Connector.
24
 The programs that do not plan to hold a materiel development decision include: Three
Dimensional Expeditionary Long Range Radar, Air and Missile Defense Radar, B-2
Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability Increment 2, Enhanced Polar System,
Global Positioning System III OCX Ground Control Segment, Joint Air-to-Ground Missile,
Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, Littoral Combat Ship Mission Modules, Nett Warrior, and Space
Fence.




Page 33                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
   example, the Navy’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye program completed a
   “should cost” analysis and used the knowledge gained to negotiate a
   4.5 percent reduction in its third production contract.

• The 16 future major defense acquisition programs we assessed
  intend to invest significantly more funds prior to entering system
  development or production than current programs. Many of the
  recent acquisition reforms mandated by Congress or initiated by DOD
  increase knowledge prior to the start of system development. These
  activities help programs ensure that there is a match between
  requirements and resources before they begin, but they take money. As
  a result, DOD is beginning to allocate more funding earlier in a
  program’s life cycle, according to our analysis of program spending
  plans. DOD spent over $450 million, on average, on 92 current major
  defense acquisition programs that reported cost data for the period
  prior to entering system development. For the 16 future programs in our
  analysis, DOD currently plans to spend an average of almost $700
  million, or over $11 billion in total, before these programs begin system
  development or start production and bypass system development. See
  figure 10 for the amount of funding that future programs plan to spend
  and current programs spent.




Page 34                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                      Figure 10: Funding for Future and Current Programs during Technology
                      Development




                          For example, the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship Mission Modules and
                          Ohio-class submarine replacement programs are projected to spend
                          more than $1.2 billion and $2.4 billion respectively in technology
                          development, and the Army’s Ground Combat Vehicle expects to
                          spend more than $1.9 billion in technology development. Increased
                          funding of technology development can have beneficial effects for
                          acquisition programs if the funds are spent on activities appropriate for
                          that phase, such as prototype demonstrations and systems
                          engineering analysis.



Assessments of        This section contains assessments of individual weapon programs. Each
                      assessment presents data on the extent to which programs are following a
Individual Programs   knowledge-based acquisition approach to product development, and other
                      program information. In total, we present information on 68 programs. For
                      48 programs, we produced two-page assessments discussing the



                      Page 35                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge obtained, as well as
other program issues. Each two-page assessment also contains a
comparison of total acquisition cost from the first full estimate for the
program to the current estimate. The first full estimate is generally the cost
estimate established at development start; however, for a few programs
that did not have such an estimate, we used the estimate at production
start instead. For shipbuilding programs, we used their planning estimates
if those estimates were available. For programs that began as non–major
defense acquisition programs, we used the first full estimate available.
Thirty-seven of these 48 two-page assessments are of major defense
acquisition programs, most of which are in development or early
production; 5 assessments are of elements of MDA’s BMDS; and 6
assessments are of programs that were projected to become major
defense acquisition programs during or soon after our review. See figure
11 for an illustration of the layout of each two-page assessment. In
addition, we produced one-page assessments on the current status of 20
programs, which include 14 future major defense acquisition programs, 2
major defense acquisition programs that are well into production, 1
element of MDA’s BMDS, and 3 major defense acquisition programs that
were recently terminated.




Page 36                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 11: Illustration of Program Two-Page Assessment




                                         Page 37         GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
How to Read the Knowledge    For our two-page assessments, we depict the extent of knowledge gained
Scorecard for Each Program   in a program by the time of our review with a scorecard and narrative
                             summary at the bottom of the first page of each assessment. As illustrated
Assessed                     in figure 11 above, the scorecard displays eight key knowledge-based
                             acquisition practices that should be implemented by certain points in the
                             acquisition process. The more knowledge the program has attained by
                             each of these key points, the more likely the weapon system will be
                             delivered within its estimated cost and schedule. A knowledge deficit
                             means the program is proceeding without sufficient knowledge about its
                             technologies, design, or manufacturing processes, and faces unresolved
                             risks that could lead to cost increases and schedule delays.

                             For each program, we identify a knowledge-based practice that has been
                             implemented with a blue circle. We identify a knowledge-based practice
                             that has not yet been implemented with an open circle. If the program did
                             not provide us with enough information to make a determination, we show
                             this with a dashed line. A knowledge-based practice that is not applicable
                             to the program is grayed out. A knowledge-based practice may not be
                             applicable to a particular program if either the point in the acquisition cycle
                             when the practice should be implemented has not yet been reached, or if
                             the particular practice is not relevant to the program. For programs that
                             have not yet entered system development, we show a projection of
                             knowledge attained for the first three practices. For programs that have
                             entered system development but not yet held a critical design review, we
                             assess actual knowledge attained for these three practices. For programs
                             that have held a critical design review but not yet entered production, we
                             assess knowledge attained for the first five practices. For programs that
                             have entered production, we assess knowledge attained for all eight
                             practices.

                             We make adjustments to both the key points in the acquisition cycle and
                             the applicable knowledge-based practices for shipbuilding programs. For
                             shipbuilding programs that have not yet awarded a detailed design
                             contract, we show a projection of knowledge attained for the first three
                             practices. For shipbuilding programs that have awarded this contract but
                             not yet started construction, we would assess actual knowledge attained
                             for these three practices. For shipbuilding programs that have started
                             construction, we assess the knowledge attained for the first four practices.
                             We do not assess the remaining four practices for shipbuilding programs.
                             See figure 12 for examples of the knowledge scorecards we use to assess
                             these different types of programs.




                             Page 38                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Figure 12: Examples of Knowledge Scorecards




                                       Page 39   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Page 40   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                Common Name: AGM-88E AARGM

             AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile (AARGM)
The Navy’s AARGM is an air-to-ground missile for
Navy and Marine Corps aircraft designed to destroy
enemy radio-frequency-enabled surface-to-air
defenses. The AARGM is an upgrade to the
AGM-88 High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile
(HARM). It will utilize the existing HARM rocket
motor and warhead sections, a modified control
section, and a new guidance section with Global
Positioning System and improved targeting
capabilities. The program is following a phased
approach for development. We assessed phase I.

                                                              Source: U.S. Navy.




   Concept            System development                                           Production

                  Development                      Design                  Low-rate                         GAO        Initial       Full-rate
                      start                        review                  decision                        review    capability      decision
                     (6/03)                        (3/06)                   (9/08)                         (1/12)     (4/12)          (6/12)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: ATK Missile Systems                                                             As of         Latest           Percent
 Company                                                                                         07/2003        06/2011           change
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD            Research and development cost                      $637.2         $722.2              13.4
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                   $963.6       $1,180.0              22.5
  R&D: $0.0 million                            Total program cost                               $1,600.7       $1,902.3              18.8
  Procurement: $1,319.6 million                Program unit cost                                   $.894          $.991              10.9
  Total funding: $1,319.6 million              Total quantities                                    1,790          1,919               7.2
  Procurement quantity: 1,767                  Acquisition cycle time (months)                        85            104              22.4




The AARGM program entered production in                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
September 2008 with its critical technologies
mature and design stable, but without                          As of January 2012
demonstrating its production processes were in                 Resources and requirements match
control. The Navy halted operational testing in                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
September 2010 after a series of missile failures                 environment
caused by software issues and poor parts quality.              ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
The program reentered operational testing in
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
August 2011 after Navy testers concluded that the
anomalies identified during the program’s first                Product design is stable
attempt at operational testing had been                        ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
adequately addressed. Acceptance flight tests                  ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
have screened out missiles of poor quality and
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
validated recent improvements in the missile’s
reliability rate. However, concerns about the                  ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

reliability and quality of the missiles being                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
delivered are still being resolved.                            ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                    Knowledge attained                              Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                          Not applicable


                                         Page 41                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: AGM-88E AARGM

AGM-88E AARGM Program                                   reenter operational testing reported that the
                                                        reliability of the missiles coming out of the factory
                                                        had not improved. The Navy has implemented
Technology and Design Maturity                          additional controls to identify missiles of poor
The AARGM program’s critical technologies are           quality, in particular, requiring each missile to be
mature and its design is stable. According to the       flight tested for 3 hours before accepting them. This
program office, AARGM’s two critical                    testing detected early unreliable missiles and
technologies—the millimeter-wave software and           supports the effectiveness of subsequent quality
radome—were mature when the program entered             improvements. However, additional flight testing will
production in September 2008. However, according        be necessary to fully verify these actions.
to reports from DOD’s independent test
organization—the Director, Operational Test and         Other Program Issues
Evaluation (DOT&E)—in 2009 and 2010, millimeter-        The AARGM program has experienced multiple test
wave sensors continue to pose a risk to the             delays, which have delayed the planned delivery of
missile’s reliability. The number of expected design    initial operational capability until April 2012. The
drawings has also continued to increase since the       program began operational testing in June 2010
start of production, but the missile’s design remains   after a 9-month delay due in part to concerns from
stable.                                                 DOT&E about the production-representativeness of
                                                        test missiles. The Navy decertified the program from
Production Maturity                                     operational testing in September 2010 after
The AARGM program’s production processes were           hardware and software issues caused a series of
not mature when it entered production in September      missile failures. The program conducted additional
2008 and the program has experienced quality            testing between November 2010 and June 2011
problems that have resulted in test failures and        and received approval to reenter operational testing
reliability issues. According to the program office,    in August 2011 after program and testing officials
the contractor has identified 18 critical               concluded that the anomalies identified during the
manufacturing processes, 8 of which are currently in    program’s first attempt at operational testing had
statistical control. The program plans to               been adequately addressed.
demonstrate that all 18 processes are in control
during its second initial production run, which is      Program Office Comments
scheduled for completion by the end of the fourth       In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
quarter of fiscal year 2012. Since entering             Navy noted that the AARGM program continues to
production, the program has experienced multiple        pursue should cost initiatives, awarding low-rate
production delays and operational test failures.        production contracts within should cost targets for
According to Defense Contract Management                planned quantities. AARGM reentered integrated
Agency (DCMA) and DOT&E officials, the test             testing in coordination with DOT&E and Navy
failures were caused by both hardware and               testers in January 2011 with rescreened production
software issues. The hardware failures involved         assets and new software. All previous anomalies
multiple subcontractors and were primarily              were addressed. An operational test readiness
attributed to poor parts quality. According to a        review was conducted in July 2011 and operational
DCMA official, supplier assessments conducted in        flights began in August. Since January 2011,
the aftermath of the program’s test failures found      AARGM has flown more than 300 hours on five
several problems with the prime contractor’s            F-18 variants, was successfully shot seven times,
management of its suppliers. For example, not all       and will obtain initial operational capability in the
program requirements had flowed down to the             third quarter of fiscal year 2012. The Navy stated
subcontractor level, nor had subcontractors             that reliability continues to improve and is now over
received updated drawings as design changes were        twice the threshold requirement. The program has
made.                                                   improved production processes, developing the
                                                        necessary repeatability and quality to request a full-
According to DCMA officials, the program office and     rate production decision in June 2012. The Navy
prime contractor have taken actions to address the      also provided technical comments, which were
quality issues; however, in July 2011, Navy test        incorporated as appropriate.
officials evaluating the program’s readiness to

                                  Page 42                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                           Common Name: AMDR

                               Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR)
The Navy’s Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR)
will be a next-generation radar system designed to
provide ballistic missile defense, air defense, and
surface warfare capabilities. AMDR will consist of
an S-band radar for ballistic missile defense and air
defense, X-band radar for horizon search, and a
radar suite controller that controls and integrates the
two radars. AMDR will initially support DDG 51
Flight III. The Navy expects AMDR to provide the
foundation for a scalable radar architecture that can
be used to defeat advanced threats.

                                                            Source: U.S. Navy.



   Concept                                System development                               Production

       Program GAO         Preliminary Development              Critical design        Production                       Initial
         start review        design        start                     review             decision                      capability
        (9/10) (1/12)        review      (10/12)                     (2/14)             (10/16)                        (10/23)
                             (7/12)



 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin,                                                                          Latest          Percent
 Northrop Grumman, Raytheon                                                                    As of       09/2011           change
 Program office: Washington, DC              Research and development cost                       NA        $2,211.8              NA
 Funding needed to complete:                 Procurement cost                                    NA      $13,597.3               NA
  R&D: $1,584.7 million                      Total program cost                                  NA      $15,837.3               NA
  Procurement: $13,597.2 million             Program unit cost                                   NA       $659.887               NA
  Total funding: $15,181.9 million           Total quantities                                    NA              24              NA
  Procurement quantity: 24                   Acquisition cycle time (months)                     NA            149               NA




AMDR plans to enter system development in                                    Attainment of Product Knowledge
October 2012 with some of the recommended
knowledge about its technology and                           Projected as of January 2012
requirements. According to the Navy, AMDR’s six              Resources and requirements match
critical technologies are expected to be                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
demonstrated in a relevant environment before                   environment
the start of system development. The program                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                environment
also plans to conduct a preliminary design review
                                                             ● Complete preliminary design review
to refine its requirements. In September 2010, the
Navy selected three contractors to build and test             Product design is stable
prototypes to demonstrate AMDR’s critical                    ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
technologies. Program officials stated that digital           ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
beamforming technology, which is necessary for
                                                              Manufacturing processes are mature
simultaneous air and ballistic missile defense, will
likely take the longest to mature. The Navy and              ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

shipbuilders have determined that a 14-foot active           ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
radar is the largest that can be accommodated by             ● Test a production-representative prototype
the existing DDG 51. AMDR is also being
developed to be scaled up in size.                                Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                  Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                      Page 43                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: AMDR

AMDR Program                                            controller technology development. The contractors
                                                        will build and test prototypes to demonstrate all
                                                        critical technologies during a 2-year technology
Technology Maturity                                     development period. The X-band portion of AMDR
According to the Navy, all six critical technologies    will be based on existing technology that is already
for the AMDR program are expected to be nearing         mature. Additional software development will be
maturity and demonstrated in a relevant                 required to integrate the two radars.
environment before a decision is made to enter
system development. They are currently immature.        The Navy plans to install AMDR on Flight III DDG
Program officials stated that digital beamforming       51s starting in 2019. The Navy has yet to determine
technology—necessary for AMDR’s simultaneous            the size of AMDR for Flight III. According to draft
air and ballistic missile defense mission—has been      AMDR documents, a 14-foot radar is needed to
identified as the most significant challenge and will   meet requirements, but an over-20-foot radar is
likely take the longest time to mature. Digital         needed to fully meet the Navy’s desired integrated
beamforming enables the radar to generate and           air and missile defense capabilities. However, the
process multiple beams simultaneously, which            shipyards and the Navy have determined that a 14-
results in more radar resources being available to      foot active radar is the largest that can be
support simultaneous air and missile defense.           accommodated within the confines of the existing
Program officials stated that this technology has       DDG 51 deckhouse, even though AMDR is being
been used before, but it has never been                 built with the capability to be scaled up in size to
demonstrated in a radar as large as AMDR.               meet future threats.

The AMDR’s transmit-receive modules—the                 Program Office Comments
individual radiating elements key to transmitting and   The program office concurred with this assessment
receiving electromagnetic signals—also pose a           and provided technical comments, which were
challenge. According to the program office, similar     incorporated where appropriate.
radar programs have experienced significant
problems developing transmit-receive modules,
resulting in cost and schedule growth. To achieve
the increased performance levels required for
AMDR, the contractor will likely use gallium nitride
semiconductor technology instead of the legacy
gallium arsenide technology. The new technology
has the potential to provide higher power and
efficiency with a smaller footprint. According to the
Navy, this would reduce the power and cooling
demands placed on the ship by the radar. However,
gallium nitride has never been used in a radar as
large as the AMDR, and long-term reliability and
performance of this newer material is unknown. If
these transmit-receive units cannot provide the
required power, the program would either need to
use the legacy technology and increase the power
and cooling resources available for the AMDR, or
accept reduced power and performance for the
AMDR S-band radar.

Other Program Issues
The AMDR program entered technology
development in September 2010 and the Navy
awarded fixed-price incentive fee contracts to
Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and
Raytheon for S-band radar and radar-suite

                                  Page 44                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                              Common Name: AB3A Remanufacture

                                       Apache Block IIIA (AB3A)
The Army’s Apache Block IIIA (AB3A) program is
upgrading AH-64D Longbow helicopters to improve
performance, situational awareness, lethality,
survivability, and interoperability, and to prevent
friendly fire incidents. It consists of three sets of
upgrades. For the first set of upgrades, AH-64Ds
are sent to the factory for hardware changes. The
second and third sets of upgrades are primarily
software-related and can be installed in the field,
reducing the time an aircraft is out of service and
increasing training time for soldiers.

                                                                 Source: U.S. Army.




   Concept              System development                                            Production

                  Development        System design         Production            Low-rate            GAO Operational Full-rate Initial
                      start              review           design review          decision           review testing   decision capability
                     (7/06)              (1/08)               (3/09)              (10/10)           (1/12)  (3/12)    (7/12)    (5/13)




 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                             As of            Latest           Percent
 Program office: Huntsville, AL                                                                     08/2006           12/2010           change
 Funding needed to complete:                 Research and development cost                         $1,155.6          $1,640.3              41.9
  R&D: $706.8 million                        Procurement cost                                      $6,086.9          $9,096.8              49.4
  Procurement: $8,363.7 million              Total program cost                                    $7,242.5         $10,737.0              48.3
  Total funding: $9,070.6 million            Program unit cost                                     $12.031            $16.803              39.7
  Procurement quantity: 610                  Total quantities                                           602               639               6.1
                                             Acquisition cycle time (months)                             79                82               3.8
                                             The latest cost and quantities do not include the 57 new-build helicopters that are being acquired
                                             under the AB3B major defense acquisition program.



The AB3A program began production in October                                      Attainment of Product Knowledge
2010 with mature critical technologies, a stable
design, and manufacturing processes that had                       As of January 2012
been demonstrated, but were not in control. The                    Resources and requirements match
program is required to demonstrate its processes                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
are in control prior to entering full-rate production.               environment
The program has begun installing the first of three                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
sets of upgrades on AH-64Ds, and according to
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
the program office, upgraded aircraft are on
schedule to begin operational testing in March                     Product design is stable
2012. The design reviews for the second and third                  ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
set of upgrades are planned for 2013 and 2015,                     ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
respectively. These upgrades will be installed in
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
the 2015 to 2017 time frame. In 2010, AB3 was
restructured into two programs—AB3A for                            ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

remanufactured aircraft and AB3B for new-build                     ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
aircraft. New-build aircraft will be identical to the              ● Test a production-representative prototype
remanufactured ones and begin delivery in 2014.
                                                                       Knowledge attained                                  Information not available
                                                                       Knowledge not attained                              Not applicable


                                     Page 45                                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: AB3A Remanufacture

AB3A Remanufacture Program                               track to meet DOD criteria related to its
                                                         performance, reliability, supportability, and
                                                         manufacturing capability.
Technology and Design Maturity
The AB3A program’s one critical technology is            Other Program Issues
mature and the design for the first set of upgrades is   In 2010, following a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach
stable. The program has begun installing the first       of the critical threshold, AB3 was restructured into
set of upgrades on AH-64D aircraft and the first         two major defense acquisition programs—AB3A for
upgraded aircraft entered service in October 2011.       remanufactured aircraft and AB3B for new-build
The development effort for the second and third set      aircraft. The original AB3 program involved taking
of upgrades, which are primarily software-related, is    legacy aircraft and remanufacturing them with
on track to begin in early 2012. According to the        upgraded capabilities. However, decreases in the
program office, these upgrades focus on reducing         numbers of legacy aircraft available for
pilot and maintainer workload; expanding                 remanufacture, combined with increasing wartime
interoperability, survivability, and manned-             demands, resulted in the addition of 57 new-build
unmanned teaming capabilities with other aircraft;       aircraft. The programs were separated to provide
improving targeting and navigation; and establishing     visibility into the cost, schedule, and performance of
the architecture for the integration of future           each segment. Structurally and technologically, the
technologies. According to the program office, the       remanufactures and new-builds will be identical and
software development effort was preliminarily            the programs will share a common contract. New-
estimated at approximately 370,000 lines of code         build aircraft will cost significantly more than the
and this estimate was used to support the program’s      remanufactured aircraft because of the need to
updated cost estimate for its production decision.       procure all new parts. According to program
Design reviews for these sets of upgrades are            officials, the production line for AH-64Ds did not
scheduled for 2013 and 2015, respectively, with          have to be restarted for the AB3B program because
follow-on operational testing planned for fiscal years   it has been kept active for wartime replacements.
2014 and 2015.                                           The program expects to deliver the first new-build
                                                         aircraft in fiscal year 2014. Foreign military sales
Production Maturity                                      have the potential to reduce the unit cost of the
The AB3A program began production in October             AB3A and AB3B. In 2012, the program will begin
2010 with manufacturing processes that had been          delivering foreign military sale aircraft to Taiwan,
demonstrated on a pilot production line, but were        and several other countries are prospective buyers
not in control. Prior to the production decision, the    as well.
program concluded that its manufacturing readiness
was at the level recommended by DOD guidance             Program Office Comments
for the start of low-rate production. However, the       In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
program’s manufacturing readiness level did not          Army provided technical comments, which were
indicate that its production processes were in           incorporated as appropriate.
statistical control. The program is currently in the
process of reassessing its manufacturing readiness.
Before its planned July 2012 full-rate production
decision, the program must successfully complete
initial operational test and evaluation and meet
other DOD criteria, which include demonstrating its
processes are stable, in control, and meet
acceptable process capability levels. AB3A has
completed the first of three operational test
readiness reviews and plans to hold the second and
third reviews shortly before initial operational test
and evaluation is planned to begin in March 2012.
According to program officials, the AB3A is also on



                                   Page 46                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                               Common Name: IAMD

                   Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (Army IAMD)
The Army’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense
(IAMD) program is being developed to network
sensors, weapons, and a common battle command
system across an integrated fire control network to
support the engagement of air and missile threats.
The IAMD Battle Command System (IBCS) will
provide a capability to control and manage IAMD
sensors and weapons, such as the Joint Land
Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted
Sensor System and Patriot, through an interface
module that supplies battle-management data and
enables networked operations.
                                                             Source: Northrop Grumman.




   Concept               System development                                               Production

      Technology     Development          GAO           Design                       Low-rate                  Initial        Full-rate
   development start     start           review         review                       decision                capability       decision
         (2/06)        (12/09)           (1/12)         (4/12)                        (6/15)                   (9/16)          (5/17)




 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                              As of          Latest           Percent
 Space & Mission Systems Corp.                                                                 12/2009         08/2011           change
 Program office: Huntsville, AL               Research and development cost                   $1,595.2        $2,019.8              26.6
 Funding needed to complete:                  Procurement cost                                $3,433.4        $3,509.0               2.2
  R&D: $1,370.5 million                       Total program cost                              $5,028.6        $5,528.8               9.9
  Procurement: $3,509.0 million               Program unit cost                               $16.988          $18.678               9.9
  Total funding: $4,879.5 million             Total quantities                                     296             296               0.0
  Procurement quantity: 285                   Acquisition cycle time (months)                       80              81               1.3




IAMD’s mission has not changed, but changes to                                Attainment of Product Knowledge
its plans for integrating other systems have
significantly increased the size of its software                 As of January 2012
effort, delayed its design review by 8 months, and               Resources and requirements match
increased its development costs by over $400                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
million. These changes include adding Patriot                      environment
launcher and radar functionality directly onto the               ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
integrated fire control network and increasing
                                                                 ● Complete preliminary design review
IBCS quantities. WIN-T integration is also a
significant risk. The program is projecting that its             Product design is stable
design will be stable at its planned April 2012                  ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
design review, but it does not plan to demonstrate               ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
the design can perform as expected until August
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
2013. Additional cost increases may occur
because the Army may increase the number of                      ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

IBCS units it plans to buy. According to officials,              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
DOD is expected to direct a new independent                      ● Test a production-representative prototype
cost estimate and an updated program baseline.
                                                                     Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                      Page 47                              GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: IAMD

IAMD Program                                              network and add a command and control module.
                                                          According to program officials, increasing the
                                                          number of IBCS units will provide for a common
Technology Maturity                                       command and control at all echelons. Program
The IAMD program entered system development in            officials now estimate the size of the software
December 2009 with its four critical technologies—        development at over 6.6 million lines of code—a 37
integrated battle command, integrated defense             percent increase over the estimate at development
design, integrated fire control network, and              start. In addition, about 63 percent will be newly
distributed track management—nearing maturity,            developed code or auto-generated code. The cost
according to an Army technology readiness                 of the added software has not yet been finalized, but
assessment based on a notional design. The Army           program officials estimate that it will add 6 months
updated the technology readiness assessment in            to the software development effort. Other
March 2011 based on the winning contractor’s              anticipated changes to the IAMD system, including
design and reached the same conclusion about the          an increase to the number of IBCS units, could
technologies’ maturity. The Office of the Assistant       increase costs further. According to program
Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering         officials, DOD is expected to direct a new
concurred with the assessment, but noted that             independent cost estimate for the program and an
integration with the Warfighter Information Network–      updated program baseline.
Tactical (WIN-T) is a significant risk. It also noted
that the assessment was based on modeling and             Program Office Comments
simulations of the WIN-T and assumptions about            In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
performance. As a result, it recommended realistic,       program office noted that increases to the program
full-scale testing with WIN-T prior to a production       include funds provided to add the Patriot sensor and
decision. Program officials estimate that IAMD            launcher directly onto the integrated fire control
technologies will not be fully mature until its planned   network and IBCS units to provide full IAMD
production decision in 2015.                              functionality at all echelons. The program is on
                                                          schedule to conduct the design review in April 2012.
Design Maturity                                           Program delay is partially due to a reduction of $45
The IAMD program plans to release over 90 percent         million shortly following the system development
of its total expected drawings by its design review,      decision and the fiscal year 2011 continuing
but it does not plan to demonstrate that the design       resolution. The Army IAMD program at
can perform as expected until August 2013—over a          development start was based on a generic design
year later. As a result, the risk of design changes       due to the competitive prototyping efforts of the
will remain. The IAMD design review has been              contractors, and the originally estimated software
delayed by 8 months to April 2012, in part because        lines of code were not specific to either contractor’s
the program has made significant changes to the           approach. Since contract award, the contractor
way it intends to integrate its planned engagement        refined the estimates and software size should be
capabilities. These changes include adding Patriot        stable going forward. To state that the software lines
launcher and radar functionality directly onto the        of code have grown 37 percent since development
IAMD integrated fire control network. The Medium          start is not wholly accurate since much of the
Extended Air Defense System and Surface-                  increase is attributable to auto-generated code
Launched Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air                 which requires less effort to complete. The program
Missile are no longer planned to be integrated with       also provided technical comments, which were
the system because those programs have been               incorporated as appropriate.
sharply curtailed or cancelled.

Other Program Issues
IAMD’s development costs have risen by over $400
million or about 27 percent since development start
and may increase further. According to program
officials, the increases are primarily attributable to
the decision to incorporate Patriot launcher and
sensor functionality into the integrated fire control

                                   Page 48                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                               Common Name: B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1

           B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 1
The Air Force’s B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1
program will upgrade the aircraft’s flight-
management computer processors, increase data-
storage capacity, and establish a high-speed
network that will serve as the foundation for future
B-2 upgrades, such as those being developed by
the B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 2 and the
Defensive Management System Modernization
programs. The development and successful
integration of new disk-drive units and integrated-
processing units is a primary objective for
Increment 1.
                                                              Source: U.S. Air Force.




   Concept                          System development                                    Production

       Program                 Development         Design                    GAO Low-rate                           Initial           Last
         start                     start           review                   review decision                       capability        delivery
        (3/02)                    (2/07)           (10/08)                  (1/12)  (3/12)                          (9/14)           (2015)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                              As of         Latest           Percent
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,                                                         05/2007        08/2011           change
 OH                                            Research and development cost                    $586.4         $497.7             -15.1
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                 $123.5         $127.4                3.1
  R&D: $62.6 million                           Total program cost                               $710.0         $625.2              -11.9
  Procurement: $127.4 million                  Program unit cost                               $33.808        $31.258               -7.5
  Total funding: $190.1 million                Total quantities                                     21             20               -4.8
  Procurement quantity: 16                     Acquisition cycle time (months)                      85             91                7.1




The B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1 program is                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
expected to enter production in March 2012 with
mature critical technologies and a stable design,               As of January 2012
but without fully demonstrating its production                  Resources and requirements match
processes. A September 2011 operational                         ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
assessment report indicated that Increment 1 is                   environment
on track to meet system requirements; however,                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
some software-related deficiencies must be
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
resolved prior to initial operational test and
evaluation in 2012. The program completed a                     Product design is stable
production readiness review in May 2011, and                    ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
expects to demonstrate sufficient manufacturing                 ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
readiness prior to production. However, the
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
program does not intend to demonstrate its critical
manufacturing process is in control before starting             ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

production. According to the program office, it has             ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
demonstrated the capability to produce key                      ● Test a production-representative prototype
components in a production-representative
environment and established reliability through                      Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable
lab testing.
                                         Page 49                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1

B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1                                Other Program Issues
Program                                                   The B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1 has been
                                                          largely able to overcome early delays in its test
                                                          program. The program completed software
Technology and Design Maturity                            certification in April 2010, flight testing began in
All six B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1 critical               September 2010, and the completion of initial
technologies are mature and its design is stable. In      operational test and evaluation is expected by late
February 2007, the program entered system                 fiscal year 2012. The health of the test aircraft has
development with all of its critical technologies         continued to be a challenge for meeting the test
nearing maturity. Since that time, these                  schedule. Nevertheless, the program’s planned
technologies have been matured and flight-                software release to flight test in late fiscal year 2011
qualified. The program office has reported that its       was completed and an operational assessment
design has been stable since its October 2008             found the system to be on track to achieve its
critical design review. All expected drawings were        planned mission capability.
releasable at that time and there has been no
increase in the number of drawings since then. A          According to the program office, the B-2 EHF
September 2011 operational assessment report by           Increment 1 production decision was postponed
the Air Force Test and Evaluation Center found that       from October 2011 to March 2012 to allow the
Increment 1 is on track to meet its effectiveness,        negotiated contract price and the program’s
suitability, and mission capability requirements;         production cost estimate to be reconciled. The
however, there are some software-driven shortfalls        program has received Air Force approval to speed
that need to be addressed prior to initial operational    up production by pursuing a firm fixed-price two-lot
test and evaluation in 2012. In particular, the           buy instead of the previously planned three-lot buy,
assessment report cited software deficiencies             which should reduce production costs and provide
related to the system’s communications capabilities       for an earlier full operational capability.
and aircrew workload as critical issues requiring
attention.                                                Program Office Comments
                                                          In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
Production Maturity                                       B-2 EHF Increment 1 program office stated that in
The B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 1 program is                 addition to the program reaching a sufficient
expected to enter production in March 2012 without        manufacturing readiness level prior to the start of
fully demonstrating its production processes. The         low-rate initial production, the program plans to
program completed a production readiness review           conduct an additional manufacturing readiness
in May 2011 and has identified one critical               assessment during the initial phase of production in
manufacturing process. According to the program           summer 2012 to demonstrate achievement of
office, by the start of production, manufacturing         further maturity prior to the full-rate production
readiness will be at a level consistent with what is      decision planned for December 2012.
recommended in DOD manufacturing readiness
level guidance. However, the program does not
expect to demonstrate that its critical manufacturing
process is in control—meaning that it meets our
standards for production defect rates—before its
production decision. In addition, the program will not
be demonstrating manufacturing processes on a
pilot line, but has employed alternative measures to
demonstrate production maturity. For example, the
program has demonstrated the capability to
produce targeted components—disk-drive units,
integrated-processing units, and a fiber harness—in
a production-representative environment. According
to program officials, they have also established that
the integrated-processing and disk-drive units have
high levels of reliability using data from lab testing.

                                   Page 50                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                       Common Name: BMDS: Aegis Ashore

                                                BMDS: Aegis Ashore
MDA’s Aegis Ashore is a planned land-based
variant of the ship-based Aegis Ballistic Missile
Defense system. It will track and intercept ballistic
missiles using a vertical launching system, variants
of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), and enclosures
called deckhouses that contain a SPY-1 radar and
command and control system. We assessed Aegis
Ashore with SM-3 Block IB. DOD plans to first
deploy this configuration in a host nation in the 2015
time frame as part of the European Phased
Adaptive Approach Phase II.

                                                                     Source: Missile Defense Agency.



    Technology/system development                                                                                   Initial capability

 Program                         Preliminary       Critical design           GAO                                   First             Second
   start                        design review           review              review                             deckhouse            deckhouse
  (9/09)                            (8/11)             (12/11)              (1/12)                             operational          operational
                                                                                                                 (12/15)              (12/18)



 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Multiple                                                                                As of      Latest          Percent
 Program office: Dahlgren, VA                                                                            04/2010     03/2011          change
 Funding needed to complete:                    Research and development cost                             $835.1    $1,418.6             69.9
  R&D: TBD                                      Procurement cost                                              NA          NA              NA
  Procurement: TBD                              Total program cost                                        $835.1    $1,418.6             69.9
  Total funding: TBD                            Program unit cost                                       $417.565    $472.864             13.2
  Procurement quantity: TBD                     Total quantities                                               2           3             50.0
                                                Acquisition cycle time (months)                               NA          NA              NA
                                                Estimates in table above do not include missile costs.




Aegis Ashore is following a concurrent acquisition                                    Attainment of Product Knowledge
approach by entering system development prior
to holding a preliminary design review and                            As of January 2012
purchasing operational components prior to                            Resources and requirements match
completing testing—both of which increase the                         ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
risk of cost growth and schedule delays. The                             environment
program office has now assessed its five critical                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                         environment
technologies as mature or nearing maturity.
                                                                      ● Complete preliminary design review
However, several of these technologies may be
less mature than reported. The system’s design                        Product design is stable
was stable by February 2012, but the risk of                          ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
design changes will remain until it demonstrates                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
the design can perform as expected by flight
                                                                      Manufacturing processes are mature
testing, which will not occur until 2014. Program
management stated that the development is low                         ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

risk because the technologies are already used                        ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
by Aegis BMD ships and the program’s ground                           ● Test a production-representative prototype
and flight test schedule will confirm the capability
by the time it is deployed.                                                Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                           Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                         Page 51                                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: Aegis Ashore

BMDS: Aegis Ashore Program                                development and production, which increases the
                                                          risk of late and costly design changes and retrofits.
                                                          For example, the program is simultaneously
Technology Maturity                                       acquiring the developmental test deckhouse and
According to the Aegis Ashore program office, all         the operational deckhouse and is constructing the
five of its critical technologies are mature or nearing   operational deckhouse first. In addition, the first
maturity. The program has assessed the SPY-1              developmental flight test of Aegis Ashore is
radar, command and control system, SM-3 Block IB          scheduled for the second quarter of fiscal year
interceptor, and vertical launching system as mature      2014, at which point two deckhouses will have been
and the multimission signal processor as nearing          constructed and other components will already be in
maturity. However, the maturity of some of these          production. Program management officials stated its
technologies may be overstated. The SPY-1 radar           concurrent schedule is low risk given its use of
requires modifications for its use on land and other      technology already used by Aegis BMD and
changes may be necessary due to host nation radar         modifications can be made to the deckhouse before
frequency issues. Program management officials            it is installed in Romania. In addition, it stated that
stated at least some of these changes are software        the current strategy has cost benefits and
modifications, but the frequency issues may require       construction and testing efficiency advantages.
other changes. The launch system must also be
modified for use both on land and at a greater            The program has experienced cost growth because
distance from the deckhouse. In addition, the             of additional requirement costs. In 2011, the unit
maturity of SM-3 Block IB may be overstated               cost of Aegis Ashore grew, which the program
because some of its component technologies have           attributed to costs for the reconstitutable deckhouse
not been flight tested or have experienced failures       design that were not included in its baseline and the
in testing. The multimission signal processor also        addition of hardware for a third site in Poland.
faces development challenges, and the Defense
Contract Management Agency has identified its             Program Office Comments
schedule as high risk. We have previously reported        In commenting on a draft of this assessment, MDA
that a significant percentage of its software still       provided technical comments, which were
needs to be integrated.                                   incorporated as appropriate.
Design Maturity
The deckhouse design was 100 percent complete in
February 2012, prior to the planned award of the
deckhouse fabrication contract in the third quarter of
fiscal year 2012. However, the program does not
plan to demonstrate the design can perform as
expected by flight testing until 2014, although there
will be ground testing to demonstrate Aegis Ashore
component integration prior to the flight test. As a
result, the risk of design changes will remain until
developmental testing is complete.

Other Program Issues
The Aegis Ashore program is following an
acquisition approach that increases the risk of cost
growth and schedule delays. The program began
system development 14 months before completing
its preliminary design review. We have previously
reported that this review should be held prior to
starting development to ensure that requirements
are defined, feasible, and achievable within cost,
schedule, and other system constraints. The
program also contains concurrency between

                                   Page 52                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                           Common Name: BMDS: SM-3 Block IB

          BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IB
MDA’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense is a sea- and
land-based system being developed to defend
against ballistic missiles of all ranges. It includes a
radar, battle management and command and
control systems, and Standard Missile-3 (SM-3)
missiles. We reviewed the SM-3 Block IB (SM-3 IB),
which will feature an improved target seeker, an
advanced signal processor, and an improved
divert/attitude control system for adjusting its
course. It is planned to be fielded in the 2015 time
frame as part of European Phased Adaptive
Approach Phase II.
                                                                         Source: Missile Defense Agency.



   Technology/system development                                                                                               Initial capability

   Preliminary                      Critical design                               SM-3 IB                      GAO        Production             Initial
  design review                          review                                  flight test                  review       decision            fielding
      (3/07)                             (5/09)                                     failure                   (1/12)        (9/13)             (12/15)
                                                                                    (9/11)



 Program Essentials                                   Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                                               Latest           Percent
 Program office: Dahlgren, VA                                                                                   As of    05/2011           change
 Funding FY12 to FY16:                                Research and development cost                               NA      $676.6               NA
  R&D: $250.7 million                                 Procurement cost                                            NA    $3,330.1               NA
  Procurement: $3,330.1 million                       Total program cost                                          NA    $4,006.7               NA
  Total funding: $3,580.8 million                     Program unit cost                                           NA         NA                NA
  Procurement quantity: TBD                           Total quantities                                            NA         370               NA
                                                      Acquisition cycle time (months)                             NA          NA               NA
                                                      Costs are from program inception through fiscal year 2016.




The SM-3 IB will be at continued risk of cost                                             Attainment of Product Knowledge
growth, schedule delays, and performance
shortfalls unless it demonstrates that the missile’s                       As of January 2012
critical technologies and design perform as                                Resources and requirements match
expected before committing to further production.                          ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
In 2011, the SM-3 IB failed during its first                                  environment
developmental flight test. At the time of the failure,                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                              environment
MDA had contracted for 25 SM-3 IB interceptors,
                                                                           ● Complete preliminary design review
18 of which were dedicated to flight testing. As a
result of the flight test failure, MDA halted                              Product design is stable
acceptance of SM-3 IB deliveries, convened a                               ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
failure review board, and delayed key program                              ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
decisions. In addition, two critical technologies—
                                                                           Manufacturing processes are mature
the throttleable divert attitude control system and
third-stage rocket motor—still may not be mature.                          ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

The attitude control system has not completed                              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
developmental testing or been successfully flight                          ● Test a production-representative prototype
tested and the third-stage rocket motor may need
to be redesigned.                                                               Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                                Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                           Page 53                                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: SM-3 Block IB

BMDS: SM-3 Block IB Program                                prove manufacturing processes and for other
                                                           purposes. MDA is also planning to purchase 46
                                                           additional missiles in fiscal year 2012. Any
Aegis BMD Element - Block 2004                             additional missiles ordered in fiscal year 2012
According to the program, all five of its critical         before the completion of flight tests needed to
technologies—the third-stage rocket motor,                 validate the missile’s performance would be at
throttleable divert attitude control system, reflective    higher risk of cost growth and schedule delays.
optics, two-color warhead seeker, and kinetic
warhead advanced signal processor—are mature.              The flight-test failure investigation and possible
However, the attitude control system has not               redesigns are delaying both developmental and
completed qualification testing or been                    operational missile production. The program’s
demonstrated in a realistic flight environment. In         acceptance of developmental missile deliveries and
addition, the third-stage rocket motor, which was          the production of certain missile components are on
previously considered the most mature technology,          hold pending the results of the investigations.
may need to be redesigned to address issues                Program officials estimate that the failure
discovered in flight testing. In its first developmental   investigations, design modifications, and additional
flight test in September 2011, the SM-3 IB                 testing will increase costs and they have not yet
experienced a failure involving one of its critical        determined how many missiles may need to be
technologies and did not intercept the target. A           refurbished.
failure review board is investigating the cause. The
program plans to redo the failed test and conduct          Other Program Issues
two additional intercept flight tests in 2012. Program     MDA originally planned to stop production of the
officials expect that all SM-3 IB technologies will be     SM-3 IA in 2010 and begin production of the SM-3
flight-qualified and demonstrated through testing by       IB. However, SM-3 IB developmental issues have
the program’s planned fiscal year 2013 production          required MDA to twice delay the purchase of SM-3
decision.                                                  IB missiles, purchase additional SM-3 IA missiles to
                                                           avoid production gaps and keep SM-3 suppliers
Design Maturity                                            active, and reduce the planned initial purchase
The SM-3 IB’s design has been relatively stable            quantity of SM-3 IBs. The program’s acceptance of
since its critical design review in May 2009,              SM-3 IA deliveries and the production of a missile
although design changes may be necessary to                component have been halted since April 2011,
address issues discovered in testing. In addition,         when an SM-3 IA missile experienced an anomaly
the program has not demonstrated that the missile’s        during a flight test. The anomaly may have occurred
design can perform as intended through                     in a component that is common to the SM-3 IA and
developmental testing. As a result, it remains at risk     SM-3 IB.
for further design changes, cost growth, and
schedule delays.                                           Program Office Comments
                                                           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, MDA
Production Maturity                                        provided technical comments, which were
MDA has delayed the official start of operational          incorporated as appropriate.
missile production from February 2010 to the fourth
quarter of fiscal year 2013. According to officials,
MDA will not make this production decision until it
completes initial developmental testing with
production-representative missiles and shipboard
systems.

The program has already contracted for 25 missiles,
18 of which will be used for developmental testing.
The seven additional missiles could require costly
rework and retrofits if the program decides to use
them as operational assets as planned. According
to MDA, additional missiles will also be used to

                                    Page 54                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                Common Name: BMDS: SM-3 Block IIA

          BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IIA
MDA’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) is a
sea- and land-based system being developed to
defend against missiles of all ranges. It includes a
radar, command and control systems, and Standard
Missile-3 (SM-3) missiles. We reviewed the SM-3
Block IIA, a cooperative development with Japan,
which will have increased velocity and range, a
more sensitive seeker, and a more advanced
warhead than other SM-3 variants. It is to be fielded
with Aegis Weapons System 5.1 in the 2018 time
frame as part of the European Phased Adaptive
Approach.
                                                                  Source: Missile Defense Agency.




   Technology/system development                                                                                            Initial capability

Program                    Schedule       GAO      Preliminary design       Critical design                              Initial
  start                     revision     review          review                  review                                capability
 (6/06)                      (9/11)      (1/12)          (3/12)                  (9/13)                                 (12/18)




 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin,                                                                    As of           Latest          Percent
 Raytheon                                                                                            04/2010          05/2011          change
 Program office: Dahlgren, VA                 Research and development cost                         $2,062.7         $2,521.8             22.3
 Funding needed to complete:                  Procurement cost                                           NA               NA               NA
  R&D: TBD                                    Total program cost                                    $2,062.7         $2,521.8             22.3
  Procurement: TBD                            Program unit cost                                          NA               NA               NA
  Total funding: TBD                          Total quantities                                            NA              NA               NA
  Procurement quantity: TBD                   Acquisition cycle time (months)                             NA              NA               NA
                                              The cost includes funding for Aegis Weapon System upgrades that will be fielded with the missile.




The SM-3 Block IIA program faces significant                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
technology development challenges. Six of the
program’s eight critical technologies are immature                 As of January 2012
and require additional development and testing                     Resources and requirements match
before they can be demonstrated in a system                        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
prototype. In addition, four key components failed                    environment
to complete their subsystem preliminary design                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                      environment
reviews in fiscal year 2011, prompting a
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
rebalancing of requirements, the substitution of
some components, and an overhaul of the                            Product design is stable
development schedule. Some of the program’s                        ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
critical technologies will need to be modified to                  ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
address issues found during these reviews. The
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
revised program schedule adjusted system-level
design reviews and added more time for                             ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

development. This will increase program costs,                     ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
but it also has the potential to reduce acquisition                ● Test a production-representative prototype
risk and future cost growth and schedule delays.
                                                                        Knowledge attained                                Information not available
                                                                        Knowledge not attained                            Not applicable


                                       Page 55                                  GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: SM-3 Block IIA

BMDS: SM-3 Block IIA Program                                are defined, feasible, and achievable before
                                                            committing to product development. The new
                                                            schedule also lowers risk in other ways, such as
Technology Maturity                                         building in more recovery time between program
The SM-3 Block IIA program faces significant                reviews and flight tests. Under the revised schedule,
technology development challenges. The majority of          flight tests will be delayed from 2015 to late 2016.
the SM-3 Block IIA components are new technology            The SM-3 Block IIA is still planned to be deployed
compared to the SM-3 Block IB. The program must             with Aegis Weapons System 5.1 as part of the
develop a new propulsion system with a much                 European Phased Adaptive Approach Phase III in
greater thrust, a new divert and attitude control           the 2018 time frame.
system, a more capable seeker, and use new solid
fuel, all of which pose significant technological           Program Office Comments
challenges. The development of similar components           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, Aegis
has been a challenge for previous SM-3                      BMD program management officials noted the SM-3
interceptors.                                               Block IIA program held 60 component-level
                                                            preliminary design reviews in fiscal year 2011, of
The SM-3 Block IIA program has identified eight             which 4 did not receive a pass during the first
critical technologies—six of which are immature and         evaluation. This result drove a schedule adjustment
require additional development and testing before           of 1 year. The officials further noted the program
they can be demonstrated in a system prototype.             used this additional time to implement a more
The program held subsystem preliminary design               robust engineering process. Actions the program
reviews during fiscal year 2011, which                      took resulted in the completion of the four
demonstrated that some critical technologies                component-level reviews and support the
required redesign or other adjustments. The                 completion of the system-level preliminary design
program has plans in place to rebalance SM-3                review in March 2012. The rebalancing of the
Block IIA requirements or replace certain                   component-level requirements that occurred has
technology components. For example, the program             not affected system-level requirements. Finally, the
has moved away from a component that has                    officials note that the program is on schedule to
caused problems for the SM-3 Block IB. The                  achieve its European Phased Adaptive Approach
program completed new reviews for the four                  objectives. MDA also provided technical comments,
technologies that failed to complete the initial            which were incorporated as appropriate.
reviews by early fiscal year 2012. In addition, two
critical technologies—the second- and third-stage
rocket motors—have experienced problems during
testing. The program was investigating the causes
of those problems and the potential effects at the
end of fiscal year 2011. According to the program,
all critical technologies will be nearing maturity by its
planned September 2013 critical design review.

Other Program Issues
The SM-3 Block IIA program has extended its
development schedule by more than a year, which
likely will increase program costs, but lower the risk
of further cost growth and schedule delays in the
future. The program adjusted its system-level
preliminary and critical design reviews after several
key components failed their preliminary design
reviews. The adjustment may reduce acquisition
risk and the potential for future cost growth by
providing the program more time to reconcile gaps
between requirements and resources; demonstrate
technical knowledge; and ensure that requirements

                                     Page 56                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                              Common Name: BMDS: GMD

                      BMDS: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)
MDA’s GMD is being fielded to defend against
limited long-range ballistic missile attacks during
their midcourse phase. GMD consists of an
interceptor with a 3-stage booster and kill vehicle
and a fire control system, which formulates battle
plans and directs components that are integrated
with BMDS radars. We assessed the maturity of all
GMD critical technologies and the design of the
Capability Enhancement II (CE-II) configuration of
the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV), which began
emplacements in fiscal year 2009.

                                                                    Source: Missile Defense Agency.



    Technology/system development               Initial capability

 Program             Directive to field       Initial            First CE-I      First emplaced        Failed CE-II     Second failed          GAO
   start             initial capability     capability           successful     CE-II interceptor     intercept test    CE-II intercept       review
  (2/96)                   (12/02)           (10/04)              intercept          (10/08)              (1/10)             test             (1/12)
                                                                    (9/06)                                                 (12/10)



 Program Essentials                              Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                                                 Latest          Percent
 Program office: Redstone Arsenal, AL                                                                    As of           08/2011          change
 Funding FY12 to FY16:                           Research and development cost                             NA          $38,919.8              NA
  R&D: $4,716.6 million                          Procurement cost                                          NA               $0.0              NA
  Procurement: $0.0 million                      Total program cost                                        NA          $39,161.8              NA
  Total funding: $4,758.8 million                Program unit cost                                         NA                NA               NA
  Procurement quantity: 0                        Total quantities                                          NA                NA               NA
                                                 Acquisition cycle time (months)                           NA                NA               NA
                                                 Costs are from program inception through fiscal year 2016.




MDA has used a highly concurrent development,                                        Attainment of Product Knowledge
production, and fielding strategy for CE-II
interceptors, which carried significant risks, some                   As of January 2012
of which were realized after its latest flight test                   Resources and requirements match
failure. Twelve CE-II EKVs have been                                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
manufactured and delivered, but both attempts to                         environment
verify its capability in flight have failed—the first                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                         environment
because of a quality issue and the second
                                                                      ● Complete preliminary design review
because of a failure in the guidance system. The
guidance system failure has resulted in design                        Product design is stable
changes, and the risk of further changes on the                       ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
program will remain until flight testing is complete.                 ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
The program plans to verify the guidance system
                                                                      Manufacturing processes are mature
fixes through a nonintercept flight test in fiscal
year 2012 and has halted the final integration of                     ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

the remaining CE-II EKVs until it does so. The                        ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
cost of the CE-II test failures, including costs of                   ● Test a production-representative prototype
failure review, testing, redesigns, and retrofits,
could exceed $1.2 billion.                                                 Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                           Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable


                                          Page 57                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: GMD

BMDS: GMD Program                                           plans to verify the fixes it is developing through a
                                                            nonintercept flight test in fiscal year 2012. The flight
                                                            test failures have cost MDA hundreds of millions of
Technology Maturity                                         dollars thus far, and the eventual cost to
All nine technologies in the GMD operational                demonstrate the CE-II through flight testing is likely
configuration are mature, but two technologies in           to be around $1 billion. In addition to the costs of the
the enhanced CE-II interceptor—an upgraded                  actual flight tests, the Defense Contract
infrared seeker and onboard discrimination—are              Management Agency reported that mitigating the
only nearing maturity. Although the program has             hardware problems that contributed to the failures
manufactured and delivered over 12 CE-II EKVs, its          will be very expensive and time consuming.
capability has yet to be demonstrated because it
failed in its two intercept flight test attempts.           Consequently, the program will have to undertake
                                                            another major retrofit program for the CE-II EKVs
Design and Production Maturity                              that have already been manufactured. According to
The GMD program has released all of its expected            GMD program officials, the total cost for this retrofit
design drawings to manufacturing and has                    effort has not been determined, but they expect the
manufactured and delivered 12 interceptors, but the         effort to cost about $18 million per fielded
program remains at risk for design changes until it         interceptor resulting in an additional cost of $180
completes its flight test program, currently                million.
scheduled for 2021. For example, the December
2010 CE-II EKV intercept test failure resulted in           Program Office Comments
design changes to resolve problems with the                 In commenting on a draft of this assessment, MDA
guidance system. These design changes are                   provided technical comments, which were
currently undergoing testing. Additionally, the             incorporated as appropriate.
interceptor design could still change because two of
its technologies are not fully mature and have not
had their capability verified through flight testing.
We did not assess the maturity of production
processes for the GMD interceptors. According to
the program, the low number of planned quantities
does not provide sufficient data to demonstrate its
manufacturing processes are in statistical control.

Other Program Issues
MDA has used a highly concurrent development,
production, and fielding strategy for CE-II
interceptors, which carried significant risks, some of
which were realized after its latest flight test failure.
That failure has disrupted production, increased
costs, and delayed fielding. GMD conducted an
intercept flight test to assess the capability of the
CE-II EKV in January 2010; however, it did not
intercept the target because of a quality-control
issue in the EKV. GMD reconducted this test in
December 2010 and, although the booster and EKV
launched successfully, the EKV failed to achieve an
intercept because of a failure in the guidance
system. After the test failure, the Director, MDA,
halted the planned delivery of CE-II EKVs. In
addition, the program deferred other planned fiscal
year 2011 work in order to fund the activities
necessary to conduct the failure investigation, as
well as the resulting redesign efforts. The program

                                     Page 58                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                        Common Name: BMDS: THAAD

                   BMDS: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
MDA’s THAAD is being developed as a rapidly-
deployable, ground-based missile defense system
with the capability to defend against short- and
medium-range ballistic missiles during their late
midcourse and terminal phases. A THAAD battery
includes interceptors, launchers, an X-band radar, a
fire control and communications system, and other
support equipment. MDA is scheduled to deliver the
first two of nine planned THAAD batteries to the
Army in fiscal year 2012 for initial operational use.



                                                                  Source: Missile Defense Agency.



   Technology/system development                                                                              Initial capability

Program            Transition   Contract award for       Contract award for       First operational          GAO                 Conditional
  start             to MDA       batteries 1 & 2             battery 3                flight test           review            materiel release to
 (1/92)             (10/01)          (12/06)               interceptors                 (10/11)             (1/12)                   Army
                                                               (3/11)                                                               (2012)



 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                                      Latest         Percent
 Program office: Huntsville, AL                                                                        As of           08/2011         change
 Funding FY12 to FY16:                         Research and development cost                             NA          $16,146.2             NA
  R&D: $1,451.9 million                        Procurement cost                                          NA           $5,458.9             NA
  Procurement: $4,049.2 million                Total program cost                                        NA          $21,942.9             NA
  Total funding: $5,839.0 million              Program unit cost                                         NA                NA              NA
  Procurement quantity: NA                     Total quantities                                          NA                NA              NA
                                               Acquisition cycle time (months)                           NA                NA              NA
                                               Costs are from program inception through fiscal year 2016.




THAAD’s major components are mature and its                                        Attainment of Product Knowledge
design is currently stable. The number of design
drawings has increased by about 30 percent                          As of January 2012
since production began in 2006, due in part to                      Resources and requirements match
design changes on a critical safety system.                         ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
Production issues, driven mostly by design                             environment
changes, have delayed interceptor deliveries by                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
18 months and have cost the program nearly $40
                                                                    ● Complete preliminary design review
million. In fiscal year 2011, the program mitigated
some of these issues and was able to meet or                        Product design is stable
exceed its production goals for the first several                   ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
months of fiscal year 2012. The program still must                  ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
demonstrate that it can steadily produce at this
                                                                    Manufacturing processes are mature
rate over time. THAAD also conducted its first
operational flight test in October 2011—a                           ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

significant event for the program.                                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line

                                                                    ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                         Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                         Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable


                                       Page 59                                  GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: THAAD

BMDS: THAAD Program                                     Other Program Issues
                                                        THAAD conducted its first operational flight test in
                                                        October 2011—a significant event for the program.
Technology and Design Maturity
                                                        Army and DOD test and evaluation organizations
The THAAD program’s major components—the fire           were both involved to ensure that the test’s
control and communications system, interceptor,         execution and results were representative of the
launcher, and radar—are mature, and the prime           operational environment for the fielded system.
contractor has released all of the expected design      During the test, the THAAD system engaged and
drawings. However, the number of design drawings        simultaneously intercepted two short-range ballistic
has increased by approximately 30 percent since         missile targets. Army and MDA test organizations
production started in December 2006, due in part to     will use this test to conduct an operational
design changes for a safety system called an optical    assessment of the THAAD system. DOD’s
block, which prevents inadvertent launches, and         independent test organization will also use the
associated changes to the flight sequencing             results to evaluate THAAD’s operational
assembly, which houses the optical block.               effectiveness.
According to program officials, the program
considered further design changes, which were           The THAAD program is expecting the system to be
estimated to cost approximately $150 million, to the    approved for conditional materiel release to the
optical block in fiscal year 2011 to make it more       Army in the second quarter of fiscal year 2012. For
producible. However, program management                 materiel release to occur, the Army must certify that
decided not to make those changes because of            the batteries are safe, suitable, and logistically
improved manufacturing performance and program          supported. Conditional materiel release is an interim
funding constraints. In addition, the current design    step in the Army’s process and was originally
was demonstrated in an October 2011 flight test and     expected to occur in September 2010, but was
in other testing needed to support an upcoming          delayed first by interceptor safety issues, and more
materiel release decision. Therefore, the program       recently by the decision to consider data from
determined that the benefits of continuing the          THAAD’s October 2011 operational flight test. A
redesign no longer justified the cost.                  date for the Army’s full materiel release decision has
                                                        not been established. According to program
Production Maturity                                     officials, MDA cannot set a target date until it
MDA awarded a contract for its first two initial        receives the Army’s definitive list of conditions that
operational batteries in December 2006 before           need to be met and funding to address them.
developmental testing of all of the system’s critical
components had been completed. Production               Program Office Comments
issues have delayed interceptor deliveries for the      In commenting on a draft of this assessment, MDA
first two batteries by 18 months and have cost the      provided technical comments, which were
program nearly $40 million. We have previously          incorporated as appropriate.
reported that design changes and producibility
issues prevented the interceptor subcontractor from
demonstrating the program’s planned production
rate. The program devised a new testing process to
increase production and, according to program
officials, the production-rate goal was met in early
fiscal year 2012. However, they noted that
production rates might be artificially high because
the program was able to amass other
subcomponents while it was working through
interceptor production issues. Consequently, the
program still must demonstrate that it can steadily
produce at this rate.




                                  Page 60                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                      Common Name: C-130 AMP

                         C-130 Avionics Modernization Program (AMP)
The Air Force’s C-130 AMP will standardize and
upgrade the cockpit and avionics for the three
combat configurations of the C-130 fleet. The
upgrades are intended to ensure that the C-130 can
satisfy the navigation and safety requirements it
needs to operate globally. The program will also
replace many systems that are no longer
supportable due to diminishing manufacturing
resources. These efforts are expected to increase
the reliability, maintainability, and sustainability of
the upgraded aircraft.

                                                              Source: U.S. Air Force.




   Concept             System development                                 Production

                 Development                       Design           Low-rate               GAO            Full-rate
                     start                         review           decision              review          decision
                    (7/01)                         (8/05)            (6/10)               (1/12)           (9/14)



 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                        As of         Latest           Percent
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,                                                         07/2001        12/2010           change
 OH                                            Research and development cost                    $775.4       $1,948.3             151.3
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                               $3,356.8       $4,256.0              26.8
  R&D: $42.2 million                           Total program cost                             $4,132.3       $6,204.3              50.1
  Procurement: $3,890.4 million                Program unit cost                                $7.962        $28.074             252.6
  Total funding: $3,932.6 million              Total quantities                                    519            221             -57.4
  Procurement quantity: 208                    Acquisition cycle time (months)                      NA             NA               NA




The C-130 AMP entered production in 2010;                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
however, it experienced a greater number of
design changes than anticipated in fiscal year                  As of January 2012
2011 as new software was added to address                       Resources and requirements match
deficiencies found in testing. The program’s                    ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
critical technologies are mature and a 2008                       environment
production readiness review concluded that                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
production processes were mature and ready to
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
start initial production. The program plans to
award a second low-rate production contract and                 Product design is stable
that contractor will compete with Boeing for the                ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
full-rate production contract. Maturity of                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
production processes for the second source will
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
be assessed prior to the contract award. The full-
rate production decision has slipped from                       ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

February 2013 to September 2014 to provide the                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
second contractor sufficient hands-on experience                ● Test a production-representative prototype
with AMP kit installation to compete. Officials
reported that during the delay, Boeing will also                     Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable
address software issues.
                                         Page 61                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: C-130 AMP

C-130 AMP Program                                            officials expect to award a contract to the second
                                                             contractor in January 2012. Program officials
                                                             reported that the maturity of production processes
Technology and Design Maturity                               of contractors being considered for lots 3 through 5
The C-130 AMP’s critical technologies are mature             will be assessed prior to the contract award.
and its design appears stable; however, the
program experienced a somewhat greater number                Other Program Issues
of design changes than anticipated in fiscal year            The program’s full-rate production decision has
2011. According to the program office, all of the            been delayed 19 months, from February 2013 to
expected engineering drawings for the C-130 AMP              September 2014. Program officials stated the delay
combat delivery configuration were releasable to             was necessary to provide a second contractor
manufacturing, but a software build was added to             sufficient hands-on experience with AMP kit
the program to address problems found in                     installation prior to the contract award for full-rate
developmental testing. Specifically, testers found           production. They reported that the program added a
that the core avionics were not well adapted to the          fifth low-rate production lot to provide time for the
C-130’s tactical missions and crew workload                  second contractor to accumulate this experience
needed to be reduced during airdrop and low-level            and avoid a production break. The second
operations, as well as those flown in certain                contractor will compete with Boeing for the full-rate
formations. The software to address these                    production contract to build and install the AMP kits.
deficiencies will not be completed and evaluated in          An Air Force air logistics center will continue to
time to be included in initial operational test and          install AMP kits during full-rate production as well.
evaluation. Program officials said the software will         Program officials stated the delay in full-rate
be tested beginning in August 2012, a month after            production will also give the program adequate time
operational testing is scheduled to be completed.            to complete and test the additional software build.
Officials expect software testing to be completed in
advance of the program’s full-rate production                Program Office Comments
decision.
                                                             In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
                                                             Force stated that a source-familiarization phase is
Production Maturity
                                                             being implemented during low-rate initial production
The C-130 AMP received approval to enter low-rate            to provide a second contractor with sufficient hands-
production in June 2010—2 years after a production           on AMP kit installation experience. The second
readiness review concluded that the processes                contractor will then compete with Boeing in a limited
used by Boeing and an Air Force air logistics center         competition for full-rate production. Officials also
were mature and ready to start initial production.           noted that in December 2010, the full-rate
Three aircraft have received the AMP modification            production decision was moved from February 2013
and the program is meeting or exceeding the quality          to September 2014 to provide the second contractor
metrics on which it provided data. However, the              sufficient hands-on experience prior to proposal
program did not assess the manufacturing                     submittal to ensure a robust competition. The Air
readiness of key suppliers prior to production.              Force also provided technical comments, which
Program officials plan to do so in 2012 and will             were incorporated as appropriate.
develop manufacturing maturity plans as needed in
order to demonstrate the suppliers’ readiness to             GAO Response
begin full-rate production.
                                                             After we completed our assessment, DOD
                                                             proposed cancelling the C-130 AMP program in the
According to program officials, Boeing will provide
                                                             President's Budget for Fiscal Year 2013.
all 26 low-rate initial production AMP kits and up to
nine installations for the first five production lots. An
Air Force logistics center will install kits for the first
and second lots of production. Installation of kits for
lots 3 through 5 will be completed by Boeing and an
Air Force logistics center, as well as a second
industry source, to facilitate competition with Boeing
for the full-rate production contract. Program

                                     Page 62                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                     Common Name: CH-53K

                                       CH-53K - Heavy Lift Replacement
The Marine Corps’ CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter is
intended to transport armored vehicles, equipment,
and personnel to support operations deep inland
from a sea-based center of operations. The CH-53K
is expected to replace the legacy CH-53E helicopter
and provide increased range and payload,
survivability and force protection, reliability and
maintainability, and coordination with other assets,
while reducing total ownership cost.




                                                                 Source: © 2011 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation.



   Concept             System development                                             Production

       Program    Development                 Design     GAO                     Low-rate                          Initial         Full-rate
          start       start                   review    review                   decision                        capability        decision
        (11/03)     (12/05)                   (7/10)    (1/12)                    (8/15)                          (1/19)            (5/19)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Sikorsky Aircraft                                                                     As of           Latest            Percent
 Corporation                                                                                           12/2005          08/2011            change
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD            Research and development cost                          $4,378.9         $6,058.1               38.3
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                      $12,178.3        $16,381.7               34.5
  R&D: $3,252.9 million                        Total program cost                                    $16,557.1        $22,439.9               35.5
  Procurement: $16,381.7 million               Program unit cost                                      $106.136         $112.199                5.7
  Total funding: $19,634.6 million             Total quantities                                            156              200               28.2
  Procurement quantity: 196                    Acquisition cycle time (months)                             119              157               31.9




The CH-53K program completed its critical design                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
review in July 2010 with a stable design, but
without fully maturing its critical technologies or                As of January 2012
demonstrating that its design can perform as                       Resources and requirements match
expected. As a result, the risk of design changes                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
remains. Flight testing is expected to begin in                      environment
2014 and the program expects its critical                          ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
technologies to be demonstrated in a realistic
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
environment by its August 2015 production
decision. According to program officials, the                      Product design is stable
program has begun building test aircraft, which                    ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
should help demonstrate its manufacturing                          ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
processes before production begins. The CH-53K
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
development contract increased by $724 million
to better reflect cost estimates the program has                   ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

reported since 2009, and several key events were                   ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
delayed. According to program officials, these                     ● Test a production-representative prototype
changes do not affect the dates of the production
decision or initial operational capability.                             Knowledge attained                                    Information not available
                                                                        Knowledge not attained                                Not applicable


                                         Page 63                               GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: CH-53K

CH-53K Program                                           changed from cost-plus award fee to cost-plus
                                                         incentive fee for the remaining period of
                                                         performance. The incentive fees are tied to specific
Technology Maturity                                      cost and schedule goals. In August 2011, the
The CH-53K program began system development              contract’s schedule was rebaselined and several
in 2005 with immature critical technologies. After 4     key production and testing events were delayed.
years in development, the program’s two current          For example, the delivery dates for the program’s
critical technologies—the main rotor blade and the       engineering development models were moved back
main gearbox—were determined to be nearing               and its first flight was delayed from 2013 to 2014.
maturity in February 2010 after being demonstrated       According to program officials, these contract
in a relevant environment. The program expects           changes will not affect the dates for the CH-53K’s
these technologies to be demonstrated in a realistic     production decision or delivery of an initial
environment by its planned August 2015 production        operational capability.
decision. Flight testing of the program’s four
engineering development models is expected to            In 2008, the Marine Corps directed the CH-53K
begin in 2014.                                           program to increase the number of planned aircraft
                                                         from 156 to 200 to support an increase in strength
Design Maturity                                          from 174,000 to 202,000 Marines. In February 2011,
The CH-53K design appears stable, but it has not         the Secretary of Defense testified that the number
been demonstrated using a prototype to show that it      of Marine Corps troops may decrease by up to
will perform as expected. This will not occur until at   20,000 beginning in fiscal year 2015. According to
least 2013. According to the program office, all of      Marine Corps officials, a force structure review has
the CH-53K’s expected design drawings are                been conducted to assess the required quantity of
releasable. However, the continuing maturation of        aircraft and that review determined that the
the program’s critical technologies could result in      requirement for 200 aircraft is still valid despite the
design changes as testing progresses.                    proposed manpower reduction.

Production Maturity                                      Program Office Comments
According to program officials, the CH-53K program       In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
has begun building developmental aircraft and a          Marine Corps provided technical comments, which
ground test vehicle. These test articles are being       were incorporated as appropriate.
assembled in the same facility where production of
the CH-53K is planned to take place. Production of
the ground test vehicle began in July 2011 and the
first of four engineering development models
entered the production line in January 2012.
Additionally, program officials stated the completion
of the ground test vehicle has been delayed
because of problems with the quality of the main
gear box castings. However, they believe these
problems have been corrected.

Other Program Issues
The CH-53K development contract has increased in
cost and several key events have been delayed.
Program officials reported that in July 2011, the
contract’s estimated cost was increased by $724
million to $3.4 billion. According to Defense
Contract Management Agency officials, the
estimated contract costs increased because of
several factors including the need for additional
flight test hours and spare parts, increased material
costs, and design complexity. The contract was also

                                   Page 64                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                        Common Name: CVN 78 Class

                                                     CVN 78 Class
The Navy’s CVN 78 class of nuclear-powered
aircraft carriers are being designed to improve
operational efficiency, enable higher sortie rates,
and reduce manpower through the use of advanced
propulsion, aircraft launch and recovery, and
survivability technologies. The Navy awarded a
contract for detail design and construction of the
lead ship, CVN 78, in September 2008 and expects
it to be delivered by September 2015. The Navy
plans to award the construction contract for CVN 79
in December 2012 and CVN 80 by the end of 2017.

                                                                Source: U.S. Navy.



   Concept                 System development       Production

       Program Construction preparation         Production Detail design and          GAO      Construction contract   Lead-ship          Initial
         start     contract award                decision    construction            review    award—second ship        delivery        capability
        (6/00)          (5/04)                    (7/07)    contract award           (1/12)          (12/12)             (9/15)           (3/17)
                                                                 (9/08)



 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Huntington Ingalls                                                               As of      Latest               Percent
 Industries–Newport News                                                                          04/2004     08/2011               change
 Program office: Washington, DC                 Research and development cost                    $4,803.3    $4,646.8                   -3.3
 Funding needed to complete:                    Procurement cost                                $30,770.8   $29,346.8                   -4.6
   R&D: $827.7 million                          Total program cost                              $35,574.1   $33,993.6                   -4.4
   Procurement: $16,540.9 million               Program unit cost                             $11,858.040 $11,331.185                   -4.4
   Total funding: $17,368.6 million             Total quantities                                        3           3                    0.0
   Procurement quantity: 2                      Acquisition cycle time (months)                       137         155                  13.1




When the CVN 78 construction contract was                                        Attainment of Product Knowledge
awarded in September 2008, the program had
several immature technologies and an incomplete                   As of January 2012
three-dimensional product model. The ship’s                       Resources and requirements match
model is now complete, but 7 of the program’s 13                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
critical technologies still have not been tested in a               environment
realistic environment. The electromagnetic                        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                    environment
aircraft launch system (EMALS) and dual-band
                                                                  ● Complete preliminary design review
radar continue to pose cost and schedule risks
and neither system will be fully integrated and                   Product design is stable
tested until after they are on-board. CVN 78’s                    ● Complete three-dimensional product model
procurement cost has grown by about 10 percent                    ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
over the past 3 years. Cost growth has been
                                                                  Manufacturing processes are mature
driven by construction cost increases, which the
program largely attributes to the immaturity of the               ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

ship’s technologies and design when the                           ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
construction contract was awarded. The cost                       ● Test a production-representative prototype
growth may require the program to request
additional funding or reduce the ship’s                               Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                      Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable
capabilities.
                                          Page 65                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: CVN 78 Class

CVN 78 Class Program                                     deflectors to work effectively with the carrier variant
                                                         of the Joint Strike Fighter, these concerns have
                                                         been addressed and will not require major design
Technology Maturity                                      changes. Additional design changes are still
Seven of the CVN 78 program’s 13 current critical        possible as EMALS and other systems continue
technologies have not been tested in a realistic, at-    testing.
sea environment, including two technologies—
EMALS and the dual-band radar—which continue to          Production Maturity
pose risks. According to program officials, EMALS        Procurement costs for CVN 78 have grown by about
has successfully launched F/A-18E, T-45C, C-2A,          10 percent over the past 3 years. A key driver is an
and E-2D aircraft during testing; however, the           increase in construction costs. According to the
system has not demonstrated the required level of        program, 83 percent of the ship’s structural units are
reliability because of the slow correction of            complete, constituting almost 27 percent of the
problems discovered earlier in testing. In addition,     expected labor hours. However, the program
according to officials, EMALS motor generators           estimates that the labor hours to complete the ship
have only been tested in a group of 4, rather than       will be 4 million more than the 40 million hours
the group of 12 that will make up the system. A test     originally budgeted. The program believes the cost
of the complete system will not take place until it is   and labor-hour increases are largely due to the
aboard the ship. The dual-band radar also will not       immaturity of the ship’s technologies and design
complete testing until after it is aboard the ship,      when the construction contract was awarded.
which presents a risk if the system does not work as     Program officials also cited problems such as late
intended. The radar is required for ship installation    material deliveries, an unexpected need for more
starting in March 2013, but the program does not         structural support to achieve a thinner deck
expect to complete testing the multifunction radar       structure, and material deficiencies on
component until early 2013 or begin testing the          developmental components such as valves.
volume-search radar component until May 2013.            According to the program, the growth in
Some radar subsystems will not be tested until           construction costs may require requests for
aboard the CVN 78. In addition, less dual-band           additional funding or a reduction of the ship’s
radar testing has been done than anticipated             capabilities.
because the Navy eliminated the volume-search
component of the radar from the DDG 1000                 Program Office Comments
Destroyer program, which the CVN 78 had planned
                                                         In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
to leverage. CVN 78 will now be the first ship to
                                                         program noted that dual-band radar testing, while
operate with this radar, but as of August 2011, the
                                                         impacted by DDG 1000 decisions on volume-search
Navy had not yet planned for carrier-specific testing.
                                                         radar, is fully funded and will complete land-based
Program officials also noted that the Evolved Sea
                                                         tests and begin shipboard testing prior to delivery.
Sparrow Missile will be demonstrated in a relevant
environment by March 2012, at which point all
critical technologies will have been demonstrated in
a relevant environment.

Design Maturity
The CVN 78 program completed its three-
dimensional product model in November 2009—
over a year after the award of the construction
contract. At the time of the September 2008
contract award, only 76 percent of the ship’s three-
dimensional product model was complete and the
shipbuilder had already begun construction of at
least 25 percent of the ship’s structural units under
its previous construction preparation contract.
Program officials noted that while there had been
concerns about the ability of the ship’s jet blast

                                   Page 66                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                          Common Name: DDG 1000

                                             DDG 1000 Destroyer
The Navy’s DDG 1000 destroyer is a multimission
surface ship designed to provide advanced land-
attack capability in support of forces ashore and
littoral operations. The ship will feature a low radar
profile, an advanced gun system, and a total ship
computing environment intended to improve the
speed of command and reduce manning.
Fabrication has begun on the first two ships and is
planned to begin on the third ship in fiscal year
2012.



                                                            Source: U.S. Navy.



   Concept              System development       Production

        Program    Development               Production   Contract award            Lead-ship         GAO        Lead-ship          Initial
          start        start                  decision     detail design         fabrication start   review       delivery        capability
         (1/98)       (3/04)                   (11/05)        (8/06)                  (2/09)         (1/12)        (7/14)           (7/16)




 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: BAE Systems, Bath                                                              As of        Latest         Percent
 Iron Works, Huntington Ingalls                                                                 01/1998       08/2011         change
 Industries, Raytheon                        Research and development cost                     $2,277.9     $10,378.4           355.6
 Program office: Washington, DC              Procurement cost                                 $32,522.1     $10,607.2           -67.4
 Funding needed to complete:                 Total program cost                               $34,800.0     $20,985.6           -39.7
   R&D: $995.6 million                       Program unit cost                               $1,087.500    $6,995.214           543.2
   Procurement: $1,418.1 million             Total quantities                                        32             3           -90.6
   Total funding: $2,413.6 million           Acquisition cycle time (months)                        128           222            73.4
   Procurement quantity: 0



The DDG 1000 design is stable and all three                                  Attainment of Product Knowledge
ships are in or will soon be in fabrication.
However, the program is still conducting                      As of January 2012
development work on several of its critical                   Resources and requirements match
technologies and most of them will not be fully               ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
mature and demonstrated in a realistic                          environment
environment until after their installation on the             ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                environment
ship. One of the technologies—the advanced gun
                                                              ● Complete preliminary design review
system’s long-range land-attack projectile—
continued to experience delays due to issues with             Product design is stable
its rocket motor. The Navy plans to finalize and              ● Complete three-dimensional product model
test the rocket motor design by March 2012. The               ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
first two ships are approximately 63 percent and
                                                              Manufacturing processes are mature
22 percent complete, respectively. According to
program officials, the shipbuilder had to rework              ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

some areas on the first ship, which resulted in an            ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
8-week schedule delay, but only minor cost                    ● Test a production-representative prototype
increases. The Navy has noted improvements in
fabrication on the second ship.                                   Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                  Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                       Page 67                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: DDG 1000

DDG 1000 Program                                          certain composite materials. According to program
                                                          officials, the shipbuilder had to rework some areas,
                                                          which resulted in an 8-week schedule delay, but
Technology Maturity                                       only minor cost increases. Program officials noted
The DDG 1000 program is still conducting                  that the shipbuilder has developed and refined
development work on several of its critical               manufacturing and installation processes to reduce
technologies. Three of DDG 1000’s 12 critical             the likelihood of rework on the subsequent ships.
technologies are currently mature and the
integrated deckhouse will be delivered to the first       Other Program Issues
ship for installation in fiscal year 2012. However, the   Following a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach of the
remaining eight technologies will not be                  critical threshold in 2010, DOD restructured the
demonstrated in a realistic environment until after       DDG 1000 program and removed the volume-
ship installation. The Navy has completed a               search radar from the ship’s design. The program
successful full-power test of the integrated power        will modify the multifunction radar to meet its
system—one of these eight technologies—and                volume-search requirements.
plans a follow-on test in fiscal year 2012. Another
critical technology—the total ship computing              The Navy recently awarded contracts for fabrication
environment—consisted initially of six software           of the third ship, its gun system, and software
releases. According to program officials, software        development and integration. In these negotiations,
release 5 has been completed and was used in              program officials said the Navy leveraged its
land-based testing in fiscal year 2011. The program       knowledge about actual costs from the fabrication of
has made changes to release 6, and has prioritized        the first two ships and from other programs to
the software needed to support shipyard delivery          reduce costs. According to program officials, the
over the functionality needed for activating the          Navy is in negotiations for contracts related to the
mission systems. This functionality was moved out         mission systems and other key segments of the
of the releases and will be developed as part of a        third ship.
spiral. Other key technologies, including the
multifunction radar and the advanced gun system,          Program Office Comments
have been delivered to the first ship. However, the
                                                          In commenting on a draft of this assessment, Navy
gun system’s long-range land-attack projectile has
                                                          officials confirmed that the program was recertified
encountered delays, primarily due to problems with
                                                          and restructured in June 2010 following a Nunn-
its rocket motor. The Navy plans to finalize and test
                                                          McCurdy unit-cost breach and the curtailing of the
the rocket motor design by March 2012. The Navy
                                                          program to three ships. Since then, the Navy has
has performed several guided flight tests using
                                                          awarded ship construction contracts for all three
older rocket motor designs, which demonstrated
                                                          ships, including advanced guns and all required
that the projectile can meet its accuracy and range
                                                          software. All critical technologies have been tested
requirements.
                                                          in at least a relevant environment. Officials noted
                                                          that more than 90 percent of the software has been
Design and Production Maturity
                                                          completed through design, code, unit test, and
The DDG 1000 design is stable, although the               integration and its schedule is aligned to ship
potential for design changes remains until its critical   activations. Navy officials also said that program
technologies are fully mature. There have been few        reviews by the Office of the Under Secretary of
design changes resulting from lead-ship production,       Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
which program officials attribute to a high level of      and DOD’s Office of Performance Assessment and
design maturity prior to fabrication. As of January       Root Cause Analyses concluded that the Navy is
2012, the Navy estimated that the first ship, which       managing and retiring program risk. The Navy also
began fabrication in February 2009, was 63 percent        provided technical comments, which were
complete. The second ship, which began fabrication        incorporated as appropriate.
in March 2010, is 22 percent complete.

Shipbuilders have experienced several challenges
in constructing the first and second ships, including
issues with the manufacture and installation of

                                   Page 68                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                          Common Name: E-2D AHE

                              E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (E-2D AHE)
The Navy’s E-2D AHE is an all-weather, twin-
engine, carrier-based aircraft designed to extend
early warning surveillance capabilities. It is the next
in a series of upgrades the Navy has made to the
E-2C Hawkeye platform since its first flight in 1971.
The key objectives of the E-2D AHE are to improve
target detection and situational awareness,
especially in the littorals; support theater air and
missile defense operations; and provide improved
operational availability for the radar system.



                                                               Source: U.S. Navy.




   Concept        System development                    Production

              Program/                Design        Low-rate                  GAO Operational       Full-rate                   Initial
          development start           review        decision                 review testing         decision                  capability
                (6/03)                (10/05)        (5/09)                  (1/12)  (1/12)         (12/12)                    (10/14)




 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                               As of        Latest           Percent
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD                                                             06/2003       08/2011           change
 Funding needed to complete:                    Research and development cost                  $3,841.0      $4,537.9              18.1
  R&D: $367.8 million                           Procurement cost                              $10,911.1     $13,167.1              20.7
  Procurement: $10,874.7 million                Total program cost                            $14,752.0     $17,747.3              20.3
  Total funding: $11,257.5 million              Program unit cost                             $196.694      $236.630               20.3
  Procurement quantity: 60                      Total quantities                                     75            75               0.0
                                                Acquisition cycle time (months)                      95           136              43.2




The E-2D AHE’s critical technologies are mature,                                Attainment of Product Knowledge
its design is stable, and its production processes
have been demonstrated. According to E-2D                       As of January 2012
program office and Defense Contract                             Resources and requirements match
Management Agency (DCMA) officials, the                         ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
contractor is also performing well on a variety of                 environment
production metrics. The program continues to                    ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
make progress completing development test
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
points and addressing issues identified in the
2010 operational assessment, but it delayed initial              Product design is stable
operational test and evaluation from November                   ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
2011 to January 2012. The program office                         ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
continues to improve the radar’s reliability rate,
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
which is currently 71 hours, but DOD test
organizations expressed some concern about                      ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

whether the radar will be able to meet some                     ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
reliability and performance measures during initial             ● Test a production-representative prototype
operational test and evaluation.
                                                                     Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                      Page 69                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: E-2D AHE

E-2D AHE Program                                           achieve a rate of 81 hours prior to the decision to
                                                           enter full-rate production, which is scheduled for
                                                           December 2012. DOD test organizations expressed
Technology and Design Maturity                             some concern about whether the radar will be able
According to the Navy, all five of the E-2D AHE’s          to meet some reliability and performance measures
critical technologies are mature and its design is         during initial operational test and evaluation.
stable. Program officials told us that an increase in      However, initial results from a test exercise
design drawings over the last year was primarily           conducted in November partially addressed the
due to changes made to address issues identified           performance concerns, according to an official at a
during development testing. None of the test               DOD test organization.
discoveries resulted in major changes to the aircraft
design, and DCMA officials confirmed that these            As part of DOD’s better-buying-power initiatives, the
design changes were relatively minor.                      E-2D AHE program conducted a should cost
                                                           analysis prior to the negotiation of its third
Production Maturity                                        production contract. According to program officials,
The E-2D AHE’s production processes have been              it used the results of this analysis to achieve a 4.5
demonstrated. According to the E-2D program office         percent cost savings on this contract.
and DCMA officials, the contractor is performing
well on a variety of production metrics and the            Program Office Comments
program has not identified any issues that would           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, Navy
result in cost or schedule growth on the production        officials noted that the program has completed all
contract. The contractor reports monthly to DCMA           the testing required on the E-2D itself before
and the program office on a series of production           entering initial operational test and evaluation,
metrics, such as scrap and rework rates. The               although some testing of the CEC system remains.
program did not identify any critical manufacturing        The Navy also provided technical comments, which
processes associated with the E-2D AHE, nor does           were incorporated as appropriate.
the program require the contractor’s major
assembly site to use statistical process controls to
ensure its critical processes are producing high-
quality and reliable products because components
are assembled using manual processes that do not
lend themselves to such measures.

Other Program Issues
The program continues to make progress
completing development test points and addressing
issues identified in the 2010 operational
assessment, but it delayed initial operational test
and evaluation from November 2011 to January
2012. Some development test points related to the
Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) remain
to be completed. The CEC is a system that
integrates information from multiple sources to track
potential targets and is being developed by a
separate Navy program office. The E-2D program
could not test this capability as scheduled because
of late deliveries from the CEC program. The E-2D
program has now received the CEC and plans to
test it before the start of initial operational testing.

The program office continues to improve the radar’s
reliability. The E-2D program reported the current
radar reliability rate is 71 hours. The radar must

                                    Page 70                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                       Common Name: Excalibur

           Excalibur Precision Guided Extended Range Artillery Projectile
The Army’s Excalibur is a family of global
positioning system–based, fire-and-forget, 155 mm
cannon artillery precision munitions intended to
provide improved range and accuracy. The near-
vertical angle of fall is expected to reduce collateral
damage, making it more effective in urban
environments. The Army is using a three-phased
approach to deliver capabilities. Increment Ia-1 is
fielded, Ia-2 is in production, and Ib, which is
expected to increase reliability and lower unit costs,
will begin production in 2013. We assessed
increment Ib.
                                                                      Source: U.S. Army.




   Concept          System development                                                                       Production

           Program/development           Design review     Initial capability               GAO Low-rate decision Initial capability         Last
                   start                  increment Ib      increment Ia-2                 review increment Ib      increment Ib         procurement
                  (5/97)                      (4/11)             (10/11)                   (1/12)     (1/13)            (3/14)              (2014)




 Program Essentials                              Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                                    As of        Latest        Percent
 Program office: Picatinny Arsenal, NJ                                                                       02/2003       08/2011        change
 Funding needed to complete:                     Research and development cost                                $765.5      $1,068.3           39.6
  R&D: $50.2 million                             Procurement cost                                           $4,010.8        $712.1          -82.2
  Procurement: $234.9 million                    Total program cost                                         $4,776.2      $1,780.5          -62.7
  Total funding: $285.1 million                  Program unit cost                                             $.062         $.238          282.4
  Procurement quantity: 3,455                    Total quantities                                             76,677         7,474          -90.3
                                                 Acquisition cycle time (months)                                 136           173           27.2
                                                 Total quantities include 3,455 increment Ib projectiles.




The Excalibur program will have to resolve                                             Attainment of Product Knowledge
several increment Ib design issues before its
planned January 2013 production decision. In                            As of January 2012
August 2010, the Army began system                                      Resources and requirements match
development for increment Ib with its one critical                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
technology nearing maturity. The increment Ib                             environment
design review was held in April 2011 and while all                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                          environment
the expected design drawings were releasable,
                                                                        ● Complete preliminary design review
parts of the design were found to be incomplete
and noncompliant. Additional subsystem design                           Product design is stable
reviews will be required to certify the design is                       ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
complete. The program is conducting a series of                         ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
tests in advance of its production decision to
                                                                        Manufacturing processes are mature
ensure performance and safety requirements can
be met. Reliability testing will not be complete                        ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

until after production has begun. The program                           ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
experienced a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach of                          ● Test a production-representative prototype
the critical threshold in 2010 due to a reduction in
quantities, but was certified to continue in 2011.                          Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                            Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable


                                         Page 71                                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: Excalibur

Excalibur Program                                       for increment Ib expected for a program that is
                                                        preparing to enter production. The increment Ib will
                                                        use similar manufacturing processes as the
Technology Maturity                                     increment Ia, which the program assesses as
After an 18-month prototype design and                  mature. However, according to the increment Ib
demonstration phase, the Army began system              June 2011 capability production document, final
development for increment Ib in August 2010 with        manufacturing processes have not yet been
its one critical technology—the guidance system—        demonstrated at two key suppliers because of
nearing maturity. According to the program office,      incomplete or changing designs.
the guidance system is now mature.
                                                        Other Program Issues
Design Maturity                                         In May 2010, the Army reduced program quantities
The Excalibur program will have to resolve several      from 30,000 to 6,264 based on a review of precision
increment Ib design issues before its design can be     munition needs. The resulting unit-cost increase led
considered stable. The majority of the increment Ib     to a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach of the critical
design is complete and all of the program’s current     threshold. A January 2011 program review
design drawings were released by its April 2011         concluded that the program is essential to national
design review. However, the design review panel         security and no alternatives are available to provide
indicated that three of the eight projectile            the same capability at a lower cost. As a result, in
subassemblies—the base assembly, fuze safe and          January 2011, the restructured Excalibur program
arm device, and tactical telemetry module—had           was certified to continue. The restructured program
incomplete designs. Those subassemblies will            plans to save $24 million by increasing the rate of
require additional subsystem-level design reviews       increment Ib production and using fixed-price
and testing before their designs can be considered      contracts with economic price adjustments for steel.
complete. Further, although the majority of the
design appears to comply with current program           Program Office Comments
requirements, the program does not currently meet       In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
requirements related to insensitive munitions, the      Army stated that the program does not currently
range of the gun, and the fuze setting timeline.        meet requirements related to insensitive munitions
Ensuring compliance with these requirements could       due to the lack of a qualified explosive, and the fuse
require design changes, and the program is              setting due to a new requirement to clear
uncertain of the total number of drawings that will     cryptographic keys prior to loading the new key.
ultimately be required for the projectile.              Ensuring compliance with the insensitive munitions
                                                        requirement would require an insensitive explosive
The program is beginning integrated developmental       qualification program and subsequent warhead
and operational testing to prepare for the January      qualification, which would delay the program and
2013 production decision for increment Ib. Design       increase costs. The fuze setting timeline is currently
verification testing was conducted in May and July      within less than one second of the requirement.
2011 to characterize the performance and structural     Changing the requirement to allow the system to
integrity of the design for the Ib base as well as to   overwrite previously entered keys would allow this
gather aerodynamic data on the latest design. The       requirement to be met. The Army further stated that
Army also plans to perform sequential environment       manufacturing processes will be demonstrated and
tests to evaluate the performance, reliability, and     reviewed prior to the production decision. The Army
lethality of the projectiles under a broad range of     also provided technical comments, which were
conditions. All performance and safety requirements     incorporated as appropriate.
are expected to be met before the production
decision. However, reliability testing will not be
complete until after production has begun.

Production Maturity
The lack of a complete and stable design has
prevented the Excalibur program from
demonstrating the level of manufacturing maturity

                                  Page 72                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                        Common Name: JSF

                                 F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter)
DOD’s JSF program is developing a family of
stealthy, strike fighter aircraft for the Navy, Air
Force, Marine Corps, and U.S. allies, with the goal
of maximizing commonality to minimize life-cycle
costs. The carrier-suitable variant will complement
the Navy F/A-18 E/F. The Air Force variant will
primarily replace the air-to-ground attack
capabilities of the F-16 and A-10, and will
complement the F-22. The short take-off and
vertical landing variant will replace the Marine Corps
F/A-18 and AV-8B aircraft.

                                                                 Source: 2010 Lockheed Martin.



   Concept             System development                   Production

        Program    Development           Design       Production          GAO           Initial     Initial     Initial                    Last
           start       start              review       decision          review      capability— capability— capability—               procurement
         (11/96)     (10/01)          (2/06 & 6/07)     (6/07)           (1/12)        USMC        USAF         USN                       (2035)
                                                                                       (TBD)       (TBD)       (TBD)



 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin,                                                                   As of          Latest            Percent
 Pratt and Whitney                                                                                  10/2001         12/2010            change
 Program office: Arlington, VA               Research and development cost                        $38,976.7       $58,387.6               49.8
 Funding needed to complete:                 Procurement cost                                    $172,921.4      $267,595.6               54.7
  R&D: $10,117.8 million                     Total program cost                                  $213,708.2      $326,535.2               52.8
  Procurement: $245,676.5 million            Program unit cost                                     $74.567         $132.900               78.2
  Total funding: $255,970.4 million          Total quantities                                         2,866           2,457              -14.3
  Procurement quantity: 2,353                Acquisition cycle time (months)                            116            TBD                 NA
                                             Latest column does not fully reflect the restructured JSF program. Costs are expected to grow and the
                                             schedule will be extended.



The JSF program has awarded contracts for                                         Attainment of Product Knowledge
production aircraft, but it still lacks key knowledge
about its technologies and manufacturing                           As of January 2012
processes. Four critical technologies are not                      Resources and requirements match
mature and present significant development risks                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
as the program integrates and tests them. The                        environment
program is making progress in flight testing, but                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
much of its developmental and operational testing
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
remains and the risk of future design changes is
significant. Manufacturing inefficiencies, parts                   Product design is stable
shortages, and quality issues persist, but there                   ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
has been some improvement. The program has                         ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
been restructured to address development
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
challenges, which triggered a Nunn-McCurdy
unit-cost breach of the critical threshold. Aircraft               ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

quantities have been reduced in the near term to                   ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
reduce risk and offset increased development                       ● Test a production-representative prototype
funding needs. DOD has not yet approved a new
baseline for the program.                                              Knowledge attained                                 Information not available
                                                                       Knowledge not attained                             Not applicable


                                      Page 73                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JSF

JSF Program                                                  could be required to alter production processes,
                                                             change its supplier base, and retrofit produced and
                                                             fielded aircraft if problems are discovered.
Technology Maturity
The JSF program began system development with                Other Program Issues
none of its eight critical technologies mature; and,         DOD has restructured the JSF program by adding
according to program officials, four of these                more time and money to address development
technologies—mission systems integration, which              challenges and reducing near-term quantities to
includes the helmet-mounted display; the                     reduce risk and offset the additional development
prognostics and health management system;                    costs. The projected cost of the restructured
integrated core processor; and integrated support            program triggered a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost
systems—are still not fully mature. Deficiencies in          breach of the critical threshold in 2010. At the time
the helmet-mounted display prompted the program              of our assessment, the program had not yet
to develop a second helmet. The program is also              completed a DOD review at which time the
trying to fix the first helmet, which does not currently     program’s updated cost and schedule estimates
meet system requirements. Significant development            may be approved. According to program officials,
risks remain as the program integrates and tests             the services are also assessing the effect of the
these technologies.                                          program changes and have not yet determined new
                                                             initial operational capability dates for any of the
Design Maturity                                              variants.
The JSF program did not have a stable design at its
critical design reviews. The program has now                 All but one of the initial test assets have been
released 96 percent of its total expected design             delivered to their respective test locations, and the
drawings; however, it continues to experience                program made significantly more progress in flight
design changes. With most of developmental and               testing compared to the previous year. The short
operational flight testing still ahead, the risk of future   take-off and vertical landing variant successfully
design changes and their potential effects on the            completed initial ship trials. However, the program
program could be significant.                                continues to experience challenges in developing
                                                             and integrating the large and complex software
Production Maturity                                          requirements needed to achieve JSF capabilities,
The JSF program’s manufacturing processes have               which could slow testing.
not been fully demonstrated as only 24 percent of
the critical processes are in statistical control. The       Program Office Comments
prime contractor has made manufacturing process              In commenting on a draft of this assessment, DOD
improvements and some key production metrics are             noted that the JSF program has 10 years of
improving. However, manufacturing inefficiencies             development and aircraft in production. In reference
persist, primarily driven by parts shortages, parts          to the helmet, officials explained that due to the
quality issues, and technical changes arising from           need to demonstrate at the milestone B
discoveries during test events, indicating that the          recertification that all technologies had been
aircraft’s design and production processes may still         demonstrated in at least a relevant environment, the
lack the maturity needed to efficiently produce              program is adding a second helmet as a risk-
aircraft at planned rates. The prime contractor              reduction effort while continuing to improve the first
planned to deliver 16 production aircraft in 2011, but       helmet. The program has a plan to mitigate
only 9 were delivered. Reintroduction of the carrier         development risks for the original helmet through
variant into the production line has resulted in parts       developmental testing. DOD also provided technical
shortages and out-of-station work, which can be              comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.
highly inefficient. The prime contractor is also
managing hundreds of suppliers within a global
network, which adds to the complexity of producing
aircraft efficiently and on-time. In addition, extensive
testing remains to be completed and the program



                                     Page 74                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                   Common Name: FAB-T

             Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals (FAB-T)
The Air Force’s FAB-T program plans to provide a
family of satellite communications terminals for
airborne and ground-based users that will replace
many program-unique terminals. It is being
designed to work with current and future
communications capabilities and technologies.
FAB-T is expected to provide voice and data military
satellite communications for nuclear and
conventional forces as well as airborne and ground
command posts, including B-2, B-52, RC-135, E-6,
and E-4 aircraft.

                                                              Source: U.S. Air Force.



   Concept         System development                                                      Production

              Development                     Design            GAO                     Low-rate               Full-rate              Initial
                  start                       review           review                   decision               decision         capability–ground
                 (9/02)                       (1/09)           (1/12)                    (6/13)                (12/14)              terminals
                                                                                                                                      (3/17)



 Program Essentials                       Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                             As of          Latest             Percent
 Program office: Hanscom AFB, MA                                                                    12/2006         08/2011             change
 Funding needed to complete:              Research and development cost                            $1,537.1        $2,338.7                52.2
  R&D: $571.4 million                     Procurement cost                                         $1,651.4        $2,349.6                42.3
  Procurement: $2,338.6 million           Total program cost                                       $3,188.5        $4,688.3                47.0
  Total funding: $2,910.0 million         Program unit cost                                        $14.762          $19.058                29.1
  Procurement quantity: 216               Total quantities                                              216             246                13.9
                                          Acquisition cycle time (months)                               129             174                34.9
                                          The latest cost data do not reflect the current cost of the program. A new acquisition program baseline
                                          has not yet been approved.



The FAB-T program has gained key knowledge                                      Attainment of Product Knowledge
about its critical technologies and design, but it
faces several cost, schedule, and development                   As of January 2012
challenges. In 2010, the program extended                       Resources and requirements match
development and has since delayed production                    ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
by more than 3 years. The program’s software                       environment
development schedule is still unrealistic. There                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
has been an increase in productivity, but
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
development may be completed 4 to 8 months
behind the new schedule. In addition, a high-                   Product design is stable
priority presidential and national voice                        ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
conferencing requirement has not yet been put                   ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
under contract. The program will likely breach
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
critical Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost thresholds unless
it can achieve significant savings from its revised             ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

acquisition strategy, which includes competition                ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
for FAB-T development and production. There will                ● Test a production-representative prototype
be continued uncertainty about the program’s cost
until a new acquisition program baseline is                          Knowledge attained                                    Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                                Not applicable
approved.
                                    Page 75                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: FAB-T

FAB-T Program                                             award contracts for development and production.
                                                          Program officials said they expect to achieve
                                                          significant savings in production by using this
Technology Maturity                                       approach. They also stated that a recent
According to the FAB-T program, all six of its critical   independent cost estimate showed substantial cost
technologies are mature. These technologies have          growth in the program, but it did not reflect the
been demonstrated in recent testing—both in-flight        competitive strategy, which is still under review. A
and with a satellite simulator.                           new independent cost estimate, which includes the
                                                          competitive strategy and new voice conferencing
Design Maturity                                           requirement, is expected to be conducted by
The FAB-T’s design is currently stable; however,          October 2012.
design changes are likely as the program addresses
new requirements. The program reported that 98            Due to uncertainty about FAB-T, the Air Force
percent of its total expected design drawings were        stopped work on contracts related to its integration
releasable, but the number of design changes was          with the B-2 and B-52—the two bomber platforms
somewhat greater than anticipated in fiscal year          for which it is designed. According to officials, both
2011. In addition, the U.S. Strategic Command has         programs are considering alternatives to transmit
requested that a new, high-priority requirement for       data through AEHF satellites, which is an important
presidential and national voice conferencing be           capability for strategic platforms. However, FAB-T
added to the program. Program officials stated that       might not be able to provide its full range of planned
requirements development and design activities            communications capabilities if the bomber programs
related to this capability began in October 2011, but     pursue alternatives since some of its capabilities are
the engineering changes to the terminal will not be       based on the interaction of bomber aircraft with
put under contract until spring 2012.                     intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
                                                          aircraft and ground terminals.
Software development and testing remain major
challenges for the program. An April 2011                 Program Office Comments
independent review team found that the software           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
development schedule could not be met without             Force stated that the FAB-T program is executing
extraordinary productivity growth. In response,           the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
program officials told us that they have put in place     Technology and Logistics’ January 2012 acquisition
metrics to manage the effort, revised the test            decision memorandum, which directed it to
schedule, and increased the government’s                  establish a competitively awarded fixed-price
presence at the contractor’s facility. According to       development and production approach by placing
program officials, there has been an increase in          priority on the air and ground command post
productivity; however, the program is still behind        terminals to provide a presidential and national
schedule and development could be completed 4 to          voice conferencing capability. In addition, the
8 months late.                                            memorandum also directed the program to
                                                          complete an independent cost estimate and revised
Other Program Issues                                      acquisition program baseline prior to the award of
The FAB-T program was restructured in 2010 and            an alternate source. In parallel with executing the
its acquisition strategy is being revised, but a new      memorandum, the program office is considering
acquisition program baseline that reflects these          converting the current cost-plus award fee contract
changes and their projected costs has not yet been        into a firm fixed-price contract in order to reduce the
approved. As part of the restructuring, the program       government’s cost risk. The Air Force also provided
extended its system development phase and                 technical comments, which were incorporated as
delayed its production decision by more than 3            appropriate.
years to June 2013. In October 2010, an
independent review team noted that the program
was likely in breach of critical Nunn-McCurdy unit-
cost thresholds; however, a breach has not yet been
reported by the program. The FAB-T program plans
to change its acquisition strategy to competitively

                                   Page 76                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                       Common Name: Global Hawk

                                             Global Hawk (RQ-4A/B)
The Air Force’s Global Hawk is a high-altitude, long-
endurance unmanned aircraft that provides
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
capabilities. The Global Hawk will replace the U-2.
After a successful technology demonstration, the
system entered development and limited production
in March 2001. The early RQ-4A, similar to the
original demonstrators, was retired in 2011, leaving
a fleet of the larger and more capable RQ-4Bs. We
assessed the RQ-4B, which is being produced in 3
configurations—block 20, 30, and 40.

                                                              Source: Northrop Grumman.




   Concept                   System development                Production

    Demonstration                                      Development start/                   Initial     GAO                 Last
    program start                                       low-rate decision                 capability   review           procurement
       (2/94)                                                 (3/01)                        (8/11)     (1/12)              (2015)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                               As of        Latest          Percent
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,                                                          03/2001       10/2011          change
 OH                                            Research and development cost                   $1,041.6      $4,769.3            357.9
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                $4,318.8      $7,877.4             82.4
  R&D: $1,657.1 million                        Total program cost                              $5,392.0     $12,811.6            137.6
  Procurement: $3,098.9 million                Program unit cost                               $85.588      $232.938             172.2
  Total funding: $4,789.4 million              Total quantities                                      63            55            -12.7
  Procurement quantity: 13                     Acquisition cycle time (months)                       55           125            127.3




The Global Hawk program has utilized a                                        Attainment of Product Knowledge
concurrent testing and production strategy, which
put it at increased risk of cost growth. The                   As of January 2012
program procured all of its block 20 and more                  Resources and requirements match
than half of its block 30 aircraft before completing           ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
operational testing in 2010 and plans to procure                  environment
all of its block 40 aircraft before it begins                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
operational testing in 2013. In May 2011, the
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, found
that the block 30 system was not operationally                 Product design is stable
effective or suitable and provided several                     ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
recommendations to improve the aircraft’s                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
capability and reliability. The program has
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
addressed most of the test findings. The program
also reported a critical Nunn-McCurdy cost                     ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

breach to Congress in April 2011 and has been                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
restructured. The planned dates for remaining key              ● Test a production-representative prototype
events have been delayed by an additional 6
months or more and the number of aircraft has                       Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable
been decreased to 55.
                                         Page 77                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: Global Hawk

Global Hawk Program                                         quantities of block 30 and block 40 aircraft,
                                                            increases in support costs, and the revised
                                                            architecture of its ground station and
Technology, Design, and Production Maturity                 communication systems. DOD also pointed to the
The critical technologies for the RQ-4B are mature,         presence of known, but unfunded, requirements
its basic airframe design is stable, and its                and an unrealistic schedule as root causes for much
manufacturing processes are mature and in                   of the cost growth. The restructured program
statistical control. The RQ-4B aircraft is being            includes four separate subprograms—block 10/20,
produced in three configurations. Block 20 aircraft         block 30, block 40, and ground station and
are equipped with an enhanced imagery intelligence          communications. The block 30 and 40 subprograms
payload, block 30 aircraft have both imagery and            will hold new production decision reviews in early
signals intelligence payloads, and block 40 aircraft        2012. The ground station and communications
will have an advanced radar surveillance capability.        subprogram is scheduled to begin system
All six block 20 aircraft have been produced and            development in summer 2013. The program also
production continues on block 30 and block 40               has five performance requirements that were part of
aircraft. However, the program must still                   its existing baseline that will not be available in the
successfully test one of its key capabilities for block     required timeline. As a result of actions taken in
40 aircraft—the multiple platform radar—to ensure it        DOD’s fiscal year 2012 budget and the Nunn-
performs as expected. Developmental testing of the          McCurdy process, the planned quantities for the
multiple platform radar is now underway, but the            program have been decreased from 77 aircraft to 55
program remains at risk for late design changes if          aircraft and aircraft procurement is scheduled to be
problems are discovered in testing.                         completed in 2015.

Other Program Issues                                        Program Office Comments
The Global Hawk program has utilized a concurrent           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
testing and production strategy, which put it at            Force stated that in 2011 the program deployed its
increased risk of cost growth. The program                  block 30 systems and they are operational in
procured all of its block 20 and more than half of its      theater. The program is also addressing challenges
block 30 aircraft by the time it completed operational      to increase reliability, availability, maintainability,
testing in December 2010. On the basis of the               and effective time-on-station metrics for the system.
results of this testing, the Director, Operational Test     In addition to commenting on this assessment, the
and Evaluation, reported in May 2011 that the block         Air Force provided technical comments, which we
30 system was neither operationally effective nor           incorporated where appropriate.
operationally suitable for conducting near-
continuous, persistent intelligence, surveillance,          GAO Response
and reconnaissance based on the Air Force                   In January 2012, DOD announced its plan to
Concept of Employment, and made several                     terminate the Global Hawk block 30 system in fiscal
recommendations to improve the system’s                     year 2013, due to the high cost associated with the
capabilities, situational awareness, and reliability.       program.
According to program officials, they have addressed
most of the problems identified in operational testing
and have plans in place to correct the remainder.
Initial operational capability was declared for
block 30 aircraft in August 2011. The program also
plans to procure all of its block 40 aircraft before its
projected start of operational testing in October
2013, putting it at increased risk of costly retrofits if
problems are discovered.

In 2011, the Global Hawk program reported a Nunn-
McCurdy unit-cost breach of the critical cost growth
threshold and was restructured. The program office
attributed the cost growth to changes in the

                                     Page 78                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                 Common Name: GPS III

                                 Global Positioning System (GPS) III
The Air Force’s Global Positioning System (GPS) III
program plans to develop and field a new
generation of satellites to supplement and
eventually replace GPS satellites currently in use.
Other programs will develop the ground system and
user equipment. GPS III will be developed
incrementally. We assessed the first increment,
which intends to provide capabilities such as a
stronger military navigation signal to improve
jamming resistance and a new civilian signal that
will be interoperable with foreign satellite navigation
systems.
                                                               Source: U.S. Air Force.




   Concept                  System development                              Production

                      Development                     Design          Production          GAO               First satellite
                          start                       review           decision          review          available for launch
                         (5/08)                       (8/10)            (1/11)           (1/12)                 (5/14)




 Program Essentials                        Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                    As of         Latest            Percent
 Program office: El Segundo, CA                                                                     05/2008        08/2011            change
 Funding needed to complete:               Research and development cost                          $2,524.2        $2,694.8                6.8
  R&D: $924.6 million                      Procurement cost                                       $1,417.2        $1,515.8                7.0
  Procurement: $1,435.0 million            Total program cost                                      $3,941.4       $4,210.6                6.8
  Total funding: $2,359.6 million          Program unit cost                                      $492.672        $526.323                6.8
  Procurement quantity: 6                  Total quantities                                               8              8                0.0
                                           Acquisition cycle time (months)                               NA             NA                NA
                                           We could not calculate acquisition cycle times for the first increment of the GPS III program because
                                           initial operational capability will not occur until satellites from a future increment are fielded.



The GPS III entered production in January 2011                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
with mature technologies and some of the
knowledge needed to ensure the system would                      As of January 2012
work as intended and could be manufactured                       Resources and requirements match
efficiently. A complete satellite was not tested                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
prior to the production decision, but the program                  environment
is developing prototypes of the spacecraft and                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
payload to prove out production processes and
                                                                 ● Complete preliminary design review
identify and solve issues prior to integrating and
testing the first space vehicle. The GPS III is                  Product design is stable
experiencing cost growth and the contractor is                   ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
behind schedule, but the program does not                        ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
expect these delays to affect the launch of the first
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
satellite. There are risks to the program launching
some satellites as planned. The GPS III ground                   ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

control system is not scheduled for delivery until               ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
15 months after the first scheduled launch and it                ● Test a production-representative prototype
is unclear whether an interim capability will be
delivered in time.                                                    Knowledge attained                                Information not available
                                                                      Knowledge not attained                            Not applicable


                                     Page 79                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: GPS III

GPS III Program                                          inefficiencies in the development of both the
                                                         navigation and communication payload and satellite
                                                         bus. The contractor is also behind in completing
Technology and Design Maturity                           some tasks, but the program does not expect these
The GPS III program’s critical technologies are          delays to affect the launch of the first satellite.
mature and its design is stable. The critical
technologies changed as the program developed its        The GPS directorate has taken steps to mitigate
design, but all eight current technologies have been     GPS III’s dependence on the development schedule
demonstrated in a relevant environment. The GPS          for the next-generation GPS ground control system,
program office reported that the number of design        the OCX, which is being managed as a separate
changes since its design review has been much            major defense acquisition program, but some GPS
less than anticipated. In addition, according to the     III launches could be affected if OCX is delayed.
program office, some of the system’s flight software     The contractor plans to deliver GPS OCX Block I in
has completed qualification testing and other            August 2015—15 months after the first planned
software deliverables are on schedule.                   GPS III satellite launch. The GPS directorate is
                                                         funding the development of a launch and checkout
Production Maturity                                      system that will provide an earlier command and
The GPS III program captured some of the                 control capability for the first GPS III satellite, but it
knowledge needed to ensure the system would              unclear when this system will be delivered.
work as intended and could be manufactured               According to GPS directorate officials, this system
efficiently before its January 2011 production           will not enable the new capabilities offered by GPS
decision. In 2011, the program office reported a         III satellites, including a jam-resistant military signal
level of manufacturing process maturity that             and three new civil signals. GPS program officials
indicated that its processes were in control when a      stated previously that they would prefer not to
production decision was made. A complete GPS III         launch a second satellite until the capabilities of the
satellite was not tested prior to the production         first one are fully tested. Although the Air Force has
decision, but the program is developing prototypes       slowed its planned pace of launches for GPS III so
of the spacecraft and payload to prove out               that there should not be a rapid succession of
production processes and identify and solve issues       launches within 2 years of the first GPS III launch,
prior to integrating and testing the first space         further delays in the OCX program could still affect
vehicle.                                                 the dates of some GPS III launches.

Other Program Issues                                     Program Office Comments
The GPS III program has adopted several practices        In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
to reduce program risk. It has maintained stable         GPS III program provided technical comments,
requirements and is being managed using a "back          which were incorporated as appropriate.
to basics" approach, which features rigorous
systems engineering, use of military specifications
and standards, and an incremental approach to
providing capability. However, the GPS III program
is currently experiencing cost growth and the
contractor is behind schedule. In November 2011,
the contractor’s estimated cost at completion for the
development and production of the first two
satellites was over $1.4 billion or 18 percent greater
than originally estimated; the program office
estimated the cost to be about $1.6 billion. The Air
Force has cited multiple reasons for the projected
contract cost increases including reductions in the
program’s production rate; greater than expected
efforts to produce engineering products compliant
with more stringent parts, materials, and radiation
testing requirements; test equipment delays; and

                                   Page 80                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                  Common Name: GPS OCX

                                    GPS III OCX Ground Control Segment
The Air Force’s next-generation GPS control
segment, referred to as OCX, will provide
command, control, and mission support for the GPS
Block II and III satellites. OCX is expected to ensure
reliable and secure delivery of position and timing
information to GPS military and civilian users. The
Air Force plans to develop OCX in four blocks, with
each block delivering upgrades as they become
available. We assessed the first block, which will
support the operation of GPS Block II and Block III
satellites.

                                                                    Source: U.S. Air Force.




   Concept                                                System development                            Production

        Program   Preliminary design    GAO        Development                                      Production
          start         review         review          start                                         decision
         (2/07)          (6/11)        (1/12)         (3/12)                                          (4/15)




 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                                               Latest        Percent
 Program office: El Segundo, CA                                                                           As of          09/2011        change
 Funding FY12 to FY16:                          Research and development cost                               NA          $2,538.5            NA
  R&D: $1,583.9 million                         Procurement cost                                            NA             $35.6            NA
  Procurement: $35.6 million                    Total program cost                                          NA          $2,574.1            NA
  Total funding: $1,619.5 million               Program unit cost                                           NA               NA             NA
  Procurement quantity: NA                      Total quantities                                            NA               NA             NA
                                                Acquisition cycle time (months)                             NA               NA             NA
                                                Table includes costs from program inception through fiscal year 2016.




GPS OCX plans to enter system development in                                          Attainment of Product Knowledge
March 2012 with some of the recommended
knowledge about its requirements and                                  Projected as of January 2012
technologies. The program held a preliminary                          Resources and requirements match
design review in June 2011 and its critical                           ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
technologies are nearing maturity. The Air Force                        environment
awarded a cost-reimbursement contract for                             ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                        environment
Blocks I and II in February 2010 before it received
                                                                      ● Complete preliminary design review
approval to formally enter system development.
The first two software packages have been                             Product design is stable
completed, but the complexity of the software                         ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
development effort has proven challenging. The                        ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
GPS OCX will not be fielded in time to support the
                                                                      Manufacturing processes are mature
first GPS III satellite, which is scheduled for
launch in May 2014. As a result, the GPS                              ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

directorate is funding an effort to provide an                        ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
earlier command and control capability, but this                      ● Test a production-representative prototype
system will not enable the new capabilities offered
by that satellite.                                                         Knowledge attained                              Information not available
                                                                           Knowledge not attained                          Not applicable


                                         Page 81                                  GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: GPS OCX

GPS OCX Program                                              a number of defects in the early iterations, and the
                                                             number of defects that are being found during
                                                             integration testing has been lower than expected.
Technology Maturity
According to program officials, the GPS OCX plans            The contractor plans to deliver GPS OCX Block I in
to enter system development in March 2012 with its           August 2015—15 months after the first planned
14 critical technologies nearing maturity. However,          GPS III satellite launch. As a result, the GPS
these technologies will not be fully tested and              directorate is funding the development of a launch
demonstrated in a realistic environment until the            and checkout system that will provide an earlier
program makes its production decision. The                   launch and command and control capability for the
program held a preliminary design review in June             first GPS III satellite. According to GPS directorate
2011, which was completed in August 2011, and                officials, this system will not enable the new
has addressed most of the issues that were                   capabilities offered by GPS III satellites, including a
identified during the review. The remaining issues,          jam-resistant military signal and three new civil
which the program deems low risk, relate to better           signals. The program released a request for
defining certain requirements, including those for           proposal for the launch and checkout system in
reliability. The program office developed mitigation         April 2011 and awarded the effort in December
plans to address these issues and an independent             2011. The launch and checkout system is expected
review team approved the plans as well as the                to cost about $30 million through 2015. Any delay in
design and architecture of the OCX system.                   the delivery of the launch and checkout system
                                                             could potentially cause the Air Force to delay the
Other Program Issues                                         launch of the first GPS III satellite.
The complexity of the GPS OCX software
development effort has proven challenging and two            Program Office Comments
current software efforts were started behind                 The Air Force provided technical comments, which
schedule. According to the program office, the GPS           were incorporated as appropriate.
OCX contract requires the delivery of six Block I
software iterations by February 2015 and two
Block II software iterations by March 2016.
According to program officials, the first and second
Block I iterations were completed on schedule;
however, the third iteration was started later than
planned and is expected to be completed later than
originally scheduled as well. Preliminary work has
begun on the fourth iteration, which is also running
behind schedule. The primary reasons for the delay
in the delivery of the third iteration, and the late start
of the fourth iteration, were the difficulty of
developing new code, as well as the contractor’s
focus on getting through the preliminary design
review process, which, according to program
officials, required more work than the contractor
originally anticipated.

According to program officials, because of the
complexity of the GPS OCX software, the program
has instituted a rigorous testing process to identify
and address defects early in each iteration. The
program expects that this process will reduce the
number of defects discovered in higher-level
integration and testing, which can be more costly to
resolve. This testing approach has already identified


                                     Page 82                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                    Common Name: Gray Eagle

                                 Gray Eagle Unmanned Aircraft System
The Army’s MQ-1C Gray Eagle will perform
reconnaissance, surveillance, target acquisition,
and attack missions either alone or with other
platforms such as the Longbow Apache helicopter.
In 2010, the Army changed the number of Gray
Eagle systems from 13 company-sized units with 12
aircraft to 31 platoons with 4 aircraft. Each platoon
will also include payloads, data terminals, and other
ground support equipment. The program consists of
block 1 systems and two less-capable Quick
Reaction Capability systems. We assessed block 1.

                                                                   Source: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.



   Concept              System development                                              Production

                    Program/                  Design                               Low-rate                GAO          Operational      Full-rate
                   development                review                               decision               review          testing        decision
                       start                  (11/06)                               (2/10)                (1/12)           (8/12)         (3/13)
                      (4/05)



 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: General Atomics                                                                         As of           Latest           Percent
 Aeronautical Systems, Inc.                                                                              04/2005          08/2011           change
 Program office: Redstone Arsenal, AL         Research and development cost                               $344.9           $946.2             174.4
 Funding needed to complete:                  Procurement cost                                            $670.4         $3,400.2             407.2
  R&D: $226.1 million                         Total program cost                                        $1,015.2         $5,158.9             408.2
  Procurement: $2,089.0 million               Program unit cost                                        $203.046          $166.416             -18.0
  Total funding: $3,006.9 million             Total quantities                                                 5               31             520.0
  Procurement quantity: 16                    Acquisition cycle time (months)                                 50             TBD                NA
                                              Total quantities include 31 platoon sets with 4 aircraft each. The program will also buy 21 aircraft to
                                              replace those lost through attrition and 7 training aircraft, for a total of 152.



The Gray Eagle program began production in                                          Attainment of Product Knowledge
February 2010 with three of its five critical
technologies not yet mature and manufacturing                        As of January 2012
processes that still exhibited production risks. The                 Resources and requirements match
program has demonstrated two of those                                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
technologies in a realistic environment and                            environment
expects to demonstrate the third one in fiscal year                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
2012. A March 2011 aircraft accident resulted in
                                                                     ● Complete preliminary design review
hardware and software changes. Some of the
changes required retrofits to systems already                        Product design is stable
produced. As a result of the accident, the Army                      ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
delayed the program’s initial operational test and                   ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
evaluation and full-rate production decision. To
                                                                     Manufacturing processes are mature
avoid a production break, the Army plans to
award a third low-rate production contract in May                    ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

2012. It now plans to procure more than half of                      ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
the total aircraft before the system is fully tested.                ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                         Knowledge attained                                   Information not available
                                                                         Knowledge not attained                               Not applicable


                                        Page 83                                  GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: Gray Eagle

Gray Eagle Program                                        the Gray Eagle’s production processes. If tooling or
                                                          other manufacturing changes are necessary, its
                                                          production processes could be affected.
Technology Maturity
The Gray Eagle entered production in February             Other Program Issues
2010 without all five of its critical technologies        The March 2011 accident involving an MQ-1C in
mature. An Army technology readiness                      testing has delayed several key program events.
assessment, which was approved by the Office of           According to the program office, the accident
the Director, Defense Research and Engineering, in        investigation made it difficult to accumulate flight
2009, concluded that three of those technologies—         hours and conduct the soldier training needed to
automatic take-off and landing, manned-unmanned           support initial operational test and evaluation in
teaming, and the tactical common data link—had            October 2011. The Army now plans to start
not been fully demonstrated in an operational             operational testing in August 2012. As a result of the
environment. According to the program office, the         delay in operational testing, the program’s full-rate
automatic take-off and landing system is now              production decision was postponed from August
mature, and manned-unmanned teaming was                   2012 to March 2013. The Army has already
demonstrated in 2011 with an Apache helicopter            awarded two low-rate production contracts in 2010
controlling Gray Eagle. However, the tactical             and 2011 for 55 aircraft. To avoid a break in
common data link is still not fully mature. The           production, the Army is planning to seek approval to
program office stated that the data link encryption       award a third low-rate contract for 29 aircraft in May
capability was successfully tested in 2011, but its air   2012. Based on the current program schedule, the
data relay capability has been deferred until fiscal      Army will procure more than half of the total planned
year 2012.                                                aircraft before the system’s operational
                                                          effectiveness and suitability is fully tested during
Design Maturity                                           initial operational test and evaluation.
The program office believes the Gray Eagle design
is currently stable; however, the program has             Program Office Comments
experienced a significant increase in design              In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
drawings due to issues identified during testing and      program office stated the Gray Eagle baseline
other technical changes. The program has made             design is mature. The program also indicated that
modifications to the system’s software and                changes to the system’s software and hardware are
hardware following a March 2011 accident and              planned improvements as new payloads and
system testing. The Army has installed the software       capabilities are integrated. Additionally, the program
changes on aircraft that were in production as well       office noted that the automatic take-off and landing
as fielded aircraft, and plans to make hardware           system and tactical common data link have been
changes that include redesigning the aircraft’s           demonstrated because deployed units have been
rudders. The program office stated that it does not       operating with these technologies. The program
yet know the cost or schedule for completing these        anticipates that the data link’s air data relay
modifications.                                            capability will be operationally tested in August 2012
                                                          and manned-unmanned teaming with an Apache
Production Maturity                                       Block III helicopter will be operationally tested in
Gray Eagle began production in February 2010 with         March 2012. The program also provided technical
manufacturing processes that had been                     comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.
demonstrated on a pilot production line, but still
exhibited production risks. An independent Army           GAO Response
assessment of the program’s production readiness          The program office considers the Gray Eagle
in 2009 stated that manufacturing process maturity        baseline design mature, but the tactical common
was satisfactory and manufacturing infrastructure         data link’s full capabilities have not yet been tested.
met or exceeded requirements for low-rate initial         Additionally, as the program office noted, the Army
production. It is unclear whether the Army expects        will be modifying the aircraft tail rudder and elevator.
planned hardware redesigns to affect the maturity of      Until the data link is fully mature and all design
                                                          changes have been developed and incorporated,
                                                          the program’s cost and schedule remain at risk.
                                   Page 84                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                   Common Name: HC/MC-130 Recapitalization

                                HC/MC-130 Recapitalization Program
The Air Force’s HC/MC-130 Recapitalization
program will replace aging Air Force HC-130P/N
and Air Force Special Operations Command
MC-130E/P/W/H aircraft with a multimission tactical
aircraft that is based on the KC-130J platform. The
primary mission of HC/MC-130J aircraft will be to
provide aerial refueling. It will also position, supply,
resupply, and recover specialized tactical ground
units. The program includes a base configuration
and three increments that provide additional
capabilities.

                                                              Source: Lockheed Martin.




   Concept            System development                  Production

                 Development                Design    Production         First aircraft       GAO       Operational           Initial
                     start                  review     decision            delivery          review       testing           capability
                   (11/08)                  (5/09)      (4/10)              (9/11)           (1/12)        (3/12)            (12/12)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                              As of         Latest           Percent
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,                                                        03/2010        12/2010           change
 OH                                            Research and development cost                   $153.2         $152.8               -0.3
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                              $7,699.3      $12,621.9              63.9
  R&D: $82.6 million                           Total program cost                            $8,364.2      $13,090.8              56.5
  Procurement: $9,532.4 million                Program unit cost                             $113.029       $107.302               -5.1
  Total funding: $9,812.7 million              Total quantities                                    74            122              64.9
  Procurement quantity: 91                     Acquisition cycle time (months)                     NA             NA                NA




The HC/MC-130J program entered production in                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
April 2010 with mature critical technologies, a
stable design, and manufacturing processes that                As of January 2012
were in control. The HC/MC-130J design is                      Resources and requirements match
derived from the KC-130J aerial refueling tanker,              ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
and shares many of the same technologies; the                      environment
system that allows it to receive fuel in-flight and            ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
the electro-optical/infrared turret mount are
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
unique. According to program officials, the
HC/MC-130J has completed developmental                         Product design is stable
testing and is scheduled to enter operational                  ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
testing in March 2012. Operational testing will be             ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
conducted with increment 1–configured aircraft,
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
which make up 10 of the planned total 122
aircraft. The program plans limited testing for                ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

increment 2, which will primarily focus on the                 ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
integration of Large Aircraft Infrared Counter                 ● Test a production-representative prototype
Measures (LAIRCM). Twenty-five increment 2
aircraft are already under contract.                                Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                         Page 85                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: HC/MC-130 Recapitalization

HC/MC-130 Recapitalization                                resolved prior to the start of operational testing;
                                                          however, they described these items as relatively
Program                                                   minor and easily correctable.

Technology Maturity                                       According to program officials, there will be limited
The HC/MC-130 Recapitalization program entered            testing of increment 2–configured aircraft. This
system development in November 2008 with both of          testing will be focused primarily on the integration of
its critical technologies mature. Several of the          the LAIRCM system. Although the basic LAIRCM
HC/MC-130J’s technologies are common with the             system is in production, recently concluded testing
KC-130J, including the rotor wing aerial refueling        on LAIRCM’s upgraded missile warning system
system. According to program officials, the two           revealed deficiencies that may affect integration
HC/MC-130J critical technologies—the electro-             with HC/MC-130J. The HC/MC-130J program
optical/infrared turret mount and the universal aerial    includes 40 increment 2 aircraft, 25 of which have
refueling receptacle slipway installation (UARRSI)—       already been placed under contract.
are unique to the aircraft. The UARRSI allows the
HC/MC-130J to receive fuel in-flight, extending the       Due to the extended budget impasse for fiscal year
range of the aircraft.                                    2011, the program office stated that it did not have
                                                          sufficient authority under the continuing resolution
Design Maturity                                           to award a contract for nine aircraft as planned. In
The HC/MC-130J design is stable and over 90               order to avoid a production break, the Air Force
percent of its drawings were released by the time         redirected approximately $500 million from other
the program held its critical design review in May        programs for the procurement of these aircraft.
2009. The HC/MC-130J is about 90 percent                  According to program offices, had an award not
common with the C-130J, which has contributed to          been made before the contractor’s proposal expired
the aircraft’s design maturity and stability.             in May 2011 the program would have been delayed
                                                          by more than a year.
Production Maturity
The HC/MC-130J program entered production in              Program Office Comments
April 2010 with manufacturing processes that were         In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
in control. In addition, program officials told us that   Force provided technical comments, which were
rework rates for repairs and defects is trending          incorporated as appropriate.
downward and have been within the expected
range. A combination of a labor force
unaccustomed to the aircraft and a ramp-up in
production contributed to the rework rates—factors
common across the C-130J platform.

Other Program Issues
According to program officials, the HC/MC-130J
successfully completed developmental testing on
base-configured aircraft in August 2011, slightly
ahead of schedule. Operational testing—scheduled
to begin in March 2012—will be conducted on
increment 1–configured aircraft, which make up 10
of the planned total 122 aircraft in the program.
Program officials stated that the Office of the
Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, certified
increment 1 aircraft as being production-
representative, which would make it appropriate for
use in operational testing. Program officials noted
that several software- and hardware-related watch
items identified during contractor testing must be


                                    Page 86                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                   Common Name: IDECM Block 4

        Integrated Defensive Electronic Countermeasures (IDECM) Block 4
The Navy’s IDECM is a radio-frequency, self-
protection electronic countermeasure to improve the
survivability of F/A-18 aircraft against guided threats
during air-to-ground/surface and air-to-air missions.
IDECM consists of onboard components that
receive and process radar signals and onboard and
offboard jammers. IDECM is being developed
incrementally; each block improves its jamming or
decoy capabilities. The Navy has fielded three
IDECM blocks; block 4 will extend onboard jamming
capabilities for F/A-18C/D aircraft. We assessed
block 4.
                                                              Source: U.S. Navy.



   Concept               System development                          Production

       Preliminary   Development        Critical      GAO        Full-rate              Initial
         design          start          design       review      decision             capability
         review        (12/09)          review       (1/12)       (4/12)                (6/14)
         (5/09)                         (5/10)



 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: ITT Electronic                                                               As of         Latest           Percent
 Systems                                                                                      06/2008        10/2011           change
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD           Research and development cost                    $220.2         $252.0              14.5
 Funding needed to complete:                  Procurement cost                                 $474.2         $569.5              20.1
  R&D: $121.4 million                         Total program cost                               $694.4         $821.5              18.3
  Procurement: $569.5 million                 Program unit cost                                $4.340         $4.324               -0.4
  Total funding: $690.9 million               Total quantities                                    160            190              18.8
  Procurement quantity: 190                   Acquisition cycle time (months)                      59             54               -8.5




IDECM block 4 expects to begin production in                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
April 2012 with mature technologies and a stable
design. Block 4 primarily replaces the previous                As of January 2012
IDECM onboard jammer with a lightweight                        Resources and requirements match
repackaged version. There is some concurrency                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
risk on the program, which could drive costly                     environment
design changes or retrofits if the redesigned                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
jammer does not perform as intended. The Navy
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
has no plans for low-rate initial production and will
proceed to full-rate production before it completes            Product design is stable
ground and flight testing. Program officials stated            ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
that this concurrency is necessary in order to                 ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
maintain the production line from block 3 to
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
block 4 and to meet the June 2014 initial
operational capability date. In addition, program              ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

officials noted that block 4 production will be                ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
limited initially to 19 units and the production rate          ● Test a production-representative prototype
will only increase once testing is completed.
                                                                    Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                      Page 87                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: IDECM Block 4

IDECM Block 4 Program                                      prior to delivery of the production hardware and fleet
                                                           introduction in 2014. To date, 13 systems have been
                                                           delivered and utilized in developmental testing. In
Technology Maturity                                        addition, the Navy noted that the firm fixed-price
IDECM block 4 began system development in 2009             production contract requires the contractor to
as an engineering change proposal to the existing          deliver assets that incorporate any design changes
block 3 onboard jammer. Block 4 will reconfigure the       identified during testing. According to the Navy, the
ALQ-214 (V)3 onboard jammer, currently only                contractor would be required to retrofit changes into
installed in the F/A-18E/F aircraft, to a common           any assets already built at no additional cost to the
configuration—ALQ-214 (V)4—to be installed on              government. The Navy also noted that the increase
F/A-18C/D and F/A-18E/F aircraft. In April 2009, a         in the block 4 research and development cost
technology readiness assessment concluded that             estimate is associated with an additional
there were no critical technologies in the ALQ-214         requirement for an improved jamming capability
(V)4 and that the system was based on mature               against advanced threats. The increase in the
technologies.                                              procurement cost estimate is associated with a
                                                           requirement for additional quantities.
Design and Production Maturity
IDECM block 4’s design is stable; however, there is
still risk in the IDECM block 4 program because it
expects to begin production in April 2012 before
developmental testing is completed. The block 4
onboard jammer is a redesign of the jammer used in
earlier blocks. This redesign was driven by the need
to reduce weight in order to accommodate the
IDECM onboard system on F/A-18C/D aircraft. The
block 4 onboard jammer will perform the same
function as found in IDECM blocks 2 and 3, but with
a different form. The Navy expects to transition from
block 3 production to block 4 production before the
system completes ground and flight testing. The
program will proceed directly into full-rate
production. This concurrent production and testing
strategy could drive costly design changes or
retrofits, or both, to units in production if the
redesigned jammer does not perform as intended.
Officials stated that this concurrency is necessary in
order to maintain the production line and to meet the
June 2014 initial operational capability date for
block 4. To mitigate the concurrency risk, Navy
officials stated that block 4 production will be limited
to 19 systems in 2012, with production rates
increasing to as many as 40 systems per year
following completion of testing.

Program Office Comments
In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
Navy stated that the block 4 configuration will begin
full-rate production in fiscal year 2012. The IDECM
program office believes the cost risks associated
with this production decision are low. While the
production line transition to the new block 4
configuration will occur prior to the completion of
flight testing in 2013, all testing will be completed

                                    Page 88                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                            Common Name: JAGM

                                   Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM)
The Joint Air-to-Ground Missile is a joint Army/Navy
program with Marine Corps participation. The
missile will be air-launched from helicopters and
fixed-wing aircraft and designed to target tanks; light
armored vehicles; missile launchers; command,
control, and communications vehicles; bunkers; and
buildings. It is intended to provide line-of-sight and
beyond line-of-sight capabilities and can be
deployed in a fire-and-forget mode or a precision
attack mode. JAGM will replace Hellfire, Maverick,
and air-launched TOW missiles.

                                                              Source: Department of Defense.




   Concept                                           System development                           Production

       Technology        Preliminary        GAO Development                 Critical           Low-rate                  Full-rate
    development start   design review      review   start                design review         decision                  decision
         (9/08)             (6/10)         (1/12)  (3/12)                    (3/13)             (3/16)                    (3/19)




 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: TBD                                                                                        Latest           Percent
 Program office: Redstone Arsenal, AL                                                           As of        11/2011           change
 Funding needed to complete:                  Research and development cost                       NA        $1,767.0               NA
  R&D: $1,176.5 million                       Procurement cost                                    NA        $5,113.0               NA
  Procurement: $5,113.0 million               Total program cost                                  NA        $6,880.0               NA
  Total funding: $6,289.5 million             Program unit cost                                   NA           $.194               NA
  Procurement quantity: 35,303                Total quantities                                    NA          35,422               NA
                                              Acquisition cycle time (months)                     NA            TBD                NA




JAGM is expected to enter system development                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
in 2012 with some of the recommended
knowledge about its technology and                             Projected as of January 2012
requirements; however, the program’s future is                 Resources and requirements match
uncertain because of concerns about its                        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
affordability. According to the program office, the               environment
program held a preliminary design review in June               ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
2010 and its five critical technologies are nearing
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
maturity. However, an independent technology
readiness assessment indicated that at least one               Product design is stable
technology has not reached this level of maturity.             ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
The program office incorporated a provision in the             ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
request for proposal for the system development
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
contract that may mitigate the technology risk by
requiring both competing contractors to submit                 ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

two rocket motor designs. According to program                 ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
officials, the program plans to award a contract in            ● Test a production-representative prototype
March 2012, despite ongoing uncertainty
regarding the future of the program.                                Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                        Page 89                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JAGM

JAGM Program                                            program plans to continue executing to its fiscal
                                                        year 2012 budget plan. The Army will continue to
                                                        field Hellfire missiles to meet the needs of the
Technology Maturity                                     warfighter, while the Navy will rely on both Maverick
According to the program office, JAGM’s five critical   and Hellfire missiles until the future of JAGM is
technologies are expected to be nearing maturity        determined.
and demonstrated in a relevant environment before
a decision is made to start system development.         According to program officials, the program plans to
The critical technologies include a multimode           award its system development contract in March
seeker for increased countermeasure resistance,         2012, notwithstanding the uncertainty regarding
boost-sustain propulsion for increased standoff         JAGM’s future. The program has received approval
range, a multipurpose warhead for increased             to conduct a limited competition between its two
lethality, an inertial measurement unit for improved    technology development contractors. It had
navigation and flight control, and guidance and         intended to award the contract in December 2010;
control software. However, an independent               however, the release of the request for proposal
technology readiness assessment indicated at least      was delayed until April 2011 because the program’s
one of these technologies has not reached this level    acquisition strategy and requirements needed to be
of maturity. We cannot identify the assessed            updated to reflect the cancellation of the Armed
maturity levels of individual technologies because      Reconnaissance Helicopter, the addition of the
the program is currently conducting a competition       OH-58 Kiowa as a replacement platform, and new
for its system development contract. According to       guidance on affordability.
program officials, the technology readiness
assessment will be updated prior to development         Program Office Comments
start based on contractors’ proposals.                  The JAGM program office concurred with this
                                                        assessment and provided technical comments,
The program office incorporated a provision in the      which were incorporated as appropriate.
request for proposal that may mitigate some of the
program’s technology risk by requiring both             GAO Response
competing contractors to submit two rocket motor
                                                        After our assessment was completed, the
designs. The government also planned to complete
                                                        President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2013 extended
environmental and safety tests using eight rocket
                                                        JAGM’s technology development phase by 27
motors from each contractor during the technology
                                                        months to address affordability issues and reduce
development phase. The tests were intended to
                                                        risk prior to system development.
examine the rocket motors under the extremes of
the expected operational environment to ensure
they can perform safely and effectively. The tests
were expected to be complete by December 2011.

Other Program Issues
The future of the JAGM program is uncertain
because of concerns about its affordability. Army
officials have stated that the service might not be
able to afford JAGM, despite having a validated
requirement for it. According to Army officials, the
Hellfire missile, which JAGM is intended to replace,
has been performing well in combat operations, and
given budget constraints, the Army may prefer to
extend its use indefinitely rather than pursue JAGM
as a next generation solution. However, according
to program officials, an analysis of alternatives
completed in August 2011 indicated that JAGM is
the most cost-effective solution to address
warfighter needs. Program officials stated that the

                                  Page 90                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                       Common Name: JASSM-ER

        Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range (JASSM-ER)
The Air Force’s JASSM-ER program plans to field a
next-generation cruise missile capable of destroying
the enemy’s war-sustaining capability from outside
its air defenses. JASSM-ER missiles are low-
observable, subsonic, and have a range greater
than 500 miles. They provide both fighter and
bomber crews the ability to strike heavily defended
targets early in a campaign. JASSM-ER is a follow-
on program to the JASSM baseline program. The
two missiles’ hardware is 70 percent common and
their software is 95 percent common.

                                                          Source: U.S. Air Force.




   Concept            System development              Production

      Program    Development          Design       Low-rate       GAO               Full-rate         Initial                   Last
        start        start            review       decision      review             decision        capability              procurement
       (6/96)       (6/03)            (2/05)        (1/11)       (1/12)              (6/13)          (7/13)                    (2028)




 Program Essentials                        Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                 As of           Latest        Percent
 Program office: Eglin AFB, FL                                                                   04/2011          08/2011        change
 Funding needed to complete:               Research and development cost                          $272.7           $272.7            0.0
  R&D: $65.5 million                       Procurement cost                                     $3,457.7         $3,457.3            0.0
  Procurement: $3,389.3 million            Total program cost                                   $3,730.5         $3,730.0            0.0
  Total funding: $3,454.9 million          Program unit cost                                      $1.474           $1.474            0.0
  Procurement quantity: 2,470              Total quantities                                        2,531            2,531            0.0
                                           Acquisition cycle time (months)                            NA               NA            NA




JASSM-ER was approved to begin production in                                Attainment of Product Knowledge
January 2011 with mature critical technologies, a
stable design, and production processes that had              As of January 2012
been demonstrated, but were not in control. The               Resources and requirements match
JASSM-ER appears to have overcome past                        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
reliability issues and, according to program                    environment
officials, the missile’s design has been proven in            ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                environment
flight testing. However, an engine oil leak was
                                                              ● Complete preliminary design review
discovered in December 2011 that required the
program office to return 13 engines to the                    Product design is stable
manufacturer for corrective action, causing a 3- to           ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
4-month delay in operational testing. In response             ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
to a warfighter request, the program is
                                                              Manufacturing processes are mature
considering a significant increase in production
rates starting in 2016. The program will need                 ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

additional funding in the short term to increase              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
production rates, but doing so could shorten                  ● Test a production-representative prototype
production by 3 years and save about $521
million.                                                          Knowledge attained                                Information not available
                                                                  Knowledge not attained                            Not applicable


                                     Page 91                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JASSM-ER

JASSM-ER Program                                         specification requirements. The contractor has
                                                         implemented a process verification program with
                                                         suppliers for the baseline missile to ensure that
Technology Maturity                                      proper production processes are being followed.
According to the program office, the JASSM-ER’s          Program officials stated that the process verification
five critical technologies—the engine lube system,       program is not a contractual requirement, but rather
engine system, fuse, low observable features, and        a technique the contractor considers a best
global positioning system—are mature and have            practice. According to program officials, process
been tested in a realistic environment using a           verification will also be used on the JASSM-ER.
production-representative test missile.
                                                         Other Program Issues
Design Maturity                                          Program officials stated that a combatant command
The JASSM-ER’s design appears stable and the             has requested that more JASSM-ER missiles be
program seems to have overcome past reliability          delivered earlier than planned. To accommodate
issues. The number of JASSM-ER configuration             this request, program officials explained that
changes has decreased over time and, according to        JASSM-ER is scheduled to receive additional
the program office, there was only 1 major               funding starting in fiscal year 2016 to pay for an
configuration change and 16 minor configuration          additional 150 missiles per year. This rate increase
changes in the last year, 1 of which was related to      may allow the program to shorten the production
the missile’s reliability. In addition, according to     schedule by 3 years and save about $521 million.
program officials, the missile’s design has been         To attain these savings, program officials said the
proven in testing; 10 out of 11 flight tests have been   missile will need to reach its economic order
successful.                                              quantity of 360 missiles per year by 2016 and
                                                         continue at that production rate through the end of
Despite the JASSM-ER’s initial operational test          its production schedule.
success, testing has been put on hold because of
problems with the missile’s engine. An engine oil        Program Office Comments
leak was discovered in December 2011 and all             In commenting on a draft of this assessment, Air
engines used in the operational test program were        Force officials stated the JASSM-ER engine oil leak
returned to the manufacturer to have corrective          anomalies were identified in the production facility
actions installed. These corrective actions will         during missile assembly. Program office and Air
cause a 3- to 4-month delay in operational testing.      Force testers jointly determined that the most-
However, program officials are optimistic that the       prudent course of action would be to delay
program’s full-rate production decision will not be      operational testing until the issue could be solved. A
affected because the full-rate decision is not           root cause and corrective action have been
scheduled until June 2013.                               identified and all operational testing and future
                                                         production missiles will include the corrective
Production Maturity                                      actions. Operational testing is expected to resume
The JASSM-ER entered production in January 2011          in June 2012, with no risk to accomplishing full-rate
with processes that had been demonstrated, but           production in June 2013. The Air Force also
were not in control. Prior to the production decision,   provided technical comments, which were
the Air Force assessed that the JASSM-ER’s               incorporated as appropriate.
manufacturing readiness was at the level
recommended by DOD guidance for the start of low-
rate production. However, the program’s
manufacturing readiness level did not indicate that
its production processes were in statistical control.
The program does not collect data on its critical
manufacturing processes because the program was
initiated using a total system performance
responsibility arrangement, but the contractor does
share some manufacturing data with the program
office to prove it is meeting the missile’s

                                   Page 92                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                Common Name: JHSV

                                    Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV)
JHSV is a joint Army and Navy program to acquire a
high-speed, shallow-depth vessel for rapid
intratheater transport. The ship, which is based on a
commercial design, will be capable of operating
without relying on shore-based infrastructure. The
program received approval to build 18 ships in
October 2008, including 10 in low-rate initial
production. Nine of the 10 vessels are under
contract and two are under construction. The lead
ship was scheduled for delivery in December 2011
and will now be delivered in spring 2012.

                                                              Source: Austal USA.




   Concept              System development               Production

        Program      Contract                        Lead-ship                       GAO       Lead-ship    Initial                 Delivery of
          start       award                       fabrication start                 review       delivery capability                tenth ship
         (4/06)      (11/08)                           (12/09)                      (1/12)     (3Q/FY12) (12/12)                      (1/17)




 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Austal USA                                                                      As of         Latest             Percent
 Program office: Washington, DC                                                                  02/2009        12/2010             change
 Funding needed to complete:                 Research and development cost                        $128.4         $138.0                 7.4
  R&D: $23.0 million                         Procurement cost                                  $3,507.9        $3,536.1                 0.8
  Procurement: $2,202.8 million              Total program cost                                 $3,636.4       $3,674.1                 1.0
  Total funding: $2,225.9 million            Program unit cost                                 $202.020        $204.116                 1.0
  Procurement quantity: 11                   Total quantities                                         18             18                 0.0
                                             Acquisition cycle time (months)                          48             50                 4.2




The JHSV program began lead-ship fabrication in                                Attainment of Product Knowledge
December 2009 with its critical technologies
mature, but without a stable design. Only 9 of the              As of January 2012
ship’s 44 design zones were complete in the                     Resources and requirements match
three-dimensional product model. According to                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
program officials, all 44 design zones were                       environment
completed 9 months later in September 2010.                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
The lead ship was launched in September 2011;
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
however, according to the shipbuilder’s data, the
cost and schedule of the ship have been affected                Product design is stable
by an increase in the ship’s weight. According to               ● Complete three-dimensional product model
the Navy, delivery of the lead ship was to occur in             ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
December 2011 and will now occur in the spring
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
of 2012. According to program officials, the Navy
is reviewing the number of JHSVs required for                   ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

future operations, and program quantities could                 ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
change.                                                         ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                      Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                      Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable


                                     Page 93                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JHSV

JHSV Program                                             the JHSV program has conducted corrosion reviews
                                                         and is applying the lessons learned from the Littoral
                                                         Combat Ship to mitigate the potential for corrosion.
Technology and Design Maturity
The JHSV program began lead-ship fabrication in          Other Program Issues
December 2009 with all 18 of its critical                As a result of discussions with the Army in
technologies mature and demonstrated in a realistic      December 2010, the Navy assumed the role of life
environment, but without a stable design. Only 9 of      cycle manager and will operate all current and
the ship’s 44 three-dimensional design zones were        future JHSVs, including the five planned for
complete. This level of maturity falls short of GAO’s    procurement by the Army, on all missions.
best practices, which call for achieving a complete      According to program officials, a requirements study
and stable three-dimensional product model before        is intended to determine the total quantity of JHSVs
construction begins to minimize the risk of design       needed to support operations for both military
changes and the subsequent costly rework and out-        services. The December 2010 selected acquisition
of-sequence work these changes can drive.                report for the JHSV program lists a total quantity of
According to program officials, all 44 zones were        18 ships, including the 5 Army vessels; however,
completed in September 2010, 9 months after              the Navy’s May 2011 30-year shipbuilding plan lists
fabrication began. However, as of August 2011, the       a total of 21 ships.
American Bureau of Shipping had not yet completed
acceptance of the JHSV design because some               Program Office Comments
drawings that support functional and structural
                                                         In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
design were still outstanding.
                                                         Navy stated that the JHSV design is based on
                                                         existing commercial platforms, and the design was
Production Maturity
                                                         90 percent complete at the start of construction. The
According to program officials, the JHSV program         Navy further stated that GAO’s best practices
does not use critical manufacturing processes to         notwithstanding, sufficient production information
measure production maturity. Instead, it monitors        from the two-dimensional design drawings and
quality metrics of specific trades such as welding,      three-dimensional model has been developed to
monitors the contractor’s earned value                   support production. Significant production risk has
management data, and measures the current                been avoided by implementing proven commercial
schedule against the production schedule.                production design and technology, ensuring stable
Additionally, the program demonstrated its               requirements, minimizing change, and through
manufacturing processes by building one of the           pursuit of cost reduction and efficiency. In addition,
ship’s modules in the shipbuilder’s new                  the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2013 reduced
manufacturing facility. The lead ship was launched       the total number of ships to be procured to 10. The
in September 2011 and, according to program              Navy also provided technical comments, which
officials, was 90 percent complete at that time.         were accounted for as appropriate.
Construction of the second ship began September
2010, and was about 25 percent complete as of
August 2011. According to shipbuilder data, a
significant increase in the weight of the ship has
negatively affected its construction cost and
schedule by requiring additional material,
production and engineering work, and design
efforts. According to the Navy, delivery of the lead
ship has been delayed and will now occur in the
spring of 2012.

Austal USA, the shipyard that is constructing JHSV,
is also building one version of the Littoral Combat
Ship. According to officials, as a result of corrosion
found in the water jet propulsion area of that ship,


                                   Page 94                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                             Common Name: JLENS

     Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System (JLENS)
The Army’s JLENS is designed to provide over-the-
horizon detection and tracking of land-attack cruise
missiles and other targets. The Army is developing
JLENS in two spirals. Spiral 1 is complete and
served as a test bed to demonstrate the concept.
Spiral 2 will utilize two aerostats with advanced
sensors for surveillance and tracking, as well as
mobile mooring stations, communication payloads,
and processing stations. JLENS will provide
surveillance and targeting support to other systems,
such as Patriot and Standard Missile-6. We
assessed Spiral 2.
                                                              Source: U.S. Army.




   Concept            System development                            Production

                Development                Design     GAO      Low-rate          Initial     Full-rate                       Last
                    start                  review    review    decision        capability    decision                    procurement
                   (8/05)                  (12/08)   (1/12)     (9/12)           (3/14)       (11/14)                       (2022)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                       As of        Latest           Percent
 Program office: Redstone Arsenal, AL                                                           08/2005       12/2010           change
 Funding needed to complete:                   Research and development cost                  $2,005.5       $2,523.2              25.8
  R&D: $634.1 million                          Procurement cost                               $4,588.7       $5,199.4              13.3
  Procurement: $5,199.4 million                Total program cost                              $6,665.9      $7,857.8              17.9
  Total funding: $5,948.7 million              Program unit cost                              $416.619       $491.112              17.9
  Procurement quantity: 14                     Total quantities                                      16            16               0.0
                                               Acquisition cycle time (months)                       97           103               6.2




According to program officials, JLENS will enter                               Attainment of Product Knowledge
production in September 2012 with mature
technologies, a stable design, and proven                       As of January 2012
production processes. Early problems with the                   Resources and requirements match
software for the system’s fire control radar—a                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
critical technology—delayed the program’s entry                   environment
into developmental test and put the production                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
decision date at risk. The JLENS design appears
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
stable and some key production planning and test
activities are complete, but the potential for                  Product design is stable
design changes remains until the maturity of key                ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
components has been demonstrated and they                       ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
have been successfully integrated and tested. In
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
September 2010, an aerostat accident resulted in
the loss of one of the JLENS platforms. The                     ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

accident, as well as recent system integration                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
challenges, delayed the program’s production                    ● Test a production-representative prototype
decision by 6 months and resulted in a Nunn-
McCurdy unit-cost breach of the significant                         Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable
threshold.
                                        Page 95                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JLENS

JLENS Program                                             effective production management, including
                                                          updating its manufacturing plan and addressing
                                                          areas such as supplier capabilities and risks, cost,
Technology Maturity                                       quality control, materials, producibility, and
JLENS entered system development in August                workforce skills.
2005 with only one of its five critical technologies
mature. Two additional technologies—the                   Other Program Issues
communications processing group and platform—             The JLENS program is working to address several
are now mature, and the program expects to                risks that could affect the program’s cost, schedule,
demonstrate the fire control radar and surveillance       and performance. First, due to the aerostat
radar in a realistic environment before production        accident, JLENS program officials estimate a
begins. Many of the JLENS radar technologies have         program effect of $8 million to $10 million. Second,
legacy components. However, sensor software               schedule effects resulting from resolution of
items related to signal processing, timing, and           problems with the fire control radar software are
control, as well as element measurement, are not          expected to delay several key tests and put the
yet mature and problems have surfaced in software         program’s production decision at risk. Third, the
verification testing. Program officials said a decision   program experienced a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost
to use newer technology introduced unexpected             breach of the significant threshold and expects that
problems that could delay demonstration tests and         integration and test delays could further increase
the integration of both the radars’ components.           costs. Finally, the JLENS program could be affected
                                                          by alignment with the Army’s Integrated Air and
Design Maturity                                           Missile Defense program. As part of the integrated
The JLENS design appears stable, but the potential        strategy, the Army extended the system
for design changes will remain until key JLENS            development phase for JLENS by 12 months.
components have been integrated and tested. The
recently resolved software problems associated            Program Office Comments
with the fire control radar indicate that the system      In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
may still be immature and is at risk of not meeting       JLENS program provided technical comments,
system performance requirements. These issues             which were incorporated as appropriate.
could further delay planned tests, as well as the
program’s production decision. Although the
program has had some success, including the first
flight demonstration of the aerostat in August 2009,
the program must still complete a series of tests
integrating the sensors and processing station. An
aerostat accident in September 2010 resulted in
only minor damage to the mobile mooring station,
but the aerostat and associated avionics and
electronics were destroyed and important tests to
assess the maturity of the system’s design had to
be postponed. In addition, the Army deployed one
aerostat and mobile mooring station for combatant
command exercises for the warfighter, which
removed an important test asset from the program.

Production Maturity
The JLENS program projects that JLENS will enter
production in September 2012 with all 15 of its
critical manufacturing processes mature and stable.
According to the program office, 12 of the program’s
critical manufacturing processes are currently in
control. The JLENS program has also completed a
number of key activities that are essential to

                                   Page 96                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                   Common Name: JPALS

                 Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS)
JPALS Increment 1 is a Navy-led program
developing a GPS-based aircraft landing system to
replace current radar-based systems on its ships. It
is designed to provide reliable precision approach
and landing capability in adverse environmental
conditions and improved interoperability. Increment
1A is the ship-based system and increment 1B will
integrate JPALS with sea-based aircraft. Both
increments are needed to provide a capability. We
assessed increment 1A.



                                                                 Source: Department of Defense.




   Concept    System development                                           Production

         Development       Preliminary     Critical      GAO          Low-rate              Initial    Full-rate
             start        design review design review   review        decision            capability   decision
            (7/08)           (12/09)       (12/10)      (1/12)         (5/13)              (12/14)      (6/15)




 Program Essentials                           Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                           As of         Latest         Percent
 Program office: Lexington Park, MD                                                                07/2008         08/2011         change
 Funding needed to complete:                  Research and development cost                         $792.1          $753.5             -4.9
  R&D: $183.9 million                         Procurement cost                                      $213.2          $222.7              4.4
  Procurement: $222.7 million                 Total program cost                                   $1,012.3         $983.3             -2.9
  Total funding: $406.6 million               Program unit cost                                    $27.359         $26.575             -2.9
  Procurement quantity: 26                    Total quantities                                          37              37              0.0
                                              Acquisition cycle time (months)                            75             77              2.7




The JPALS program completed its critical design                                   Attainment of Product Knowledge
review in December 2010, but did not
demonstrate that the design can perform as                        As of January 2012
expected. As a result, the risk of design and                     Resources and requirements match
software changes remains. JPALS functionality is                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
software-based. According to program officials,                      environment
the program has completed software qualification                  ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
testing for four of five JPALS subsystems.
                                                                  ● Complete preliminary design review
Completion of testing of the ship processing
software, which provides much of JPALS’                           Product design is stable
functionality, has been delayed until March 2012                  ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
to incorporate an algorithm update. The program                   ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
will begin integrated testing of a system prototype
                                                                  Manufacturing processes are mature
in January 2012 without this update. The program
has delivered its first three engineering                         ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

development models, with five more scheduled                      ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
through 2012. Increment 1B, which integrates                      ● Test a production-representative prototype
JPALS into sea-based aircraft, is planned to begin
system development in 2012.                                            Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                       Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                      Page 97                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JPALS

JPALS Program                                          facilities testing and subsequent models for ship
                                                       installation and testing. According to officials, the
                                                       program’s planned production decision was delayed
Technology Maturity                                    from February 2013 to May 2013, primarily due to
JPALS Increment 1A began system development in         the availability of CVN 77 for ship-based testing.
July 2008 with its two critical technologies nearing
maturity. Program officials expect both to be mature   Other Program Issues
and demonstrated in a realistic environment by its     The JPALS program has not updated key
May 2013 production decision. JPALS functionality      acquisition documents for increment 1A and 1B.
is software-based, with over 850,000 lines of code     When increment 1A was approved to enter system
expected in the final system as of August 2011—an      development in 2008, the Under Secretary of
increase of almost 57,000 lines of code since its      Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
December 2010 critical design review. According to     stated that its test and evaluation master plan
program officials, all seven JPALS software blocks     should be updated prior to its preliminary design
were completed in late August 2011 and the             review, which was held in December 2009. Program
program has completed software qualification           officials stated that they have revised the plan, and
testing for four of five JPALS subsystems. Officials   expect it to be finalized by the program’s test
also noted that expected completion of testing for     readiness review. Increment 1B is scheduled to
the ship processing software, which provides much      enter system development in 2012, but the program
of JPALS’s functionality, has been delayed until       does not currently have an approved acquisition
March 2012 to allow the program time to integrate      strategy.
an updated version of an algorithm component. Any
additional delays with this software testing could     The increment 1A program will integrate JPALS
affect the JPALS test readiness review—a key           onto 20 existing ships; incorporating JPALS on new
program event—scheduled for April 2012.                ships under construction is the responsibility of
                                                       those respective programs.
Design Maturity
The JPALS design is currently stable, but it has not   Program Office Comments
been demonstrated using a prototype to show that it    In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
will perform as expected. The risk of design and       JPALS program office noted that increment 1A is
software changes will remain until the design shows    currently preparing for entry into formal integrated
it can meet requirements. The JPALS program held       testing. There have been no requirement changes,
its critical design review in December 2010 and has    and the December 2010 critical design review
released all of its expected design drawings to        concluded the program’s technical baseline is
manufacturing. However, the program will not begin     stable, and performance, cost, and schedule risks
integrated testing of a system prototype until         are acceptable. All requests for action from the
January 2012, and this testing will not include the    critical design review have been closed. The
ship processing software.                              program completed early testing of the GPS
                                                       subsystems on board LHD 1 in July 2011, mitigating
Production Maturity                                    several program risks prior to beginning formal
The JPALS program plans to take steps to               testing. The program office received a production-
demonstrate the maturity of its manufacturing          representative ship system engineering
processes prior to beginning production. The           development model in October 2011 and three
program will demonstrate its manufacturing             functionally-representative avionics test kits in
processes on a pilot production line and will          November 2011. To date, the program has
demonstrate that the system will work as intended      continued to meet all cost, schedule, and
in a reliable manner by testing a fully configured     performance thresholds. The program also provided
production-representative prototype. The program       technical comments, which were incorporated as
accepted delivery of its first engineering             appropriate.
development model in December 2010 and its
second and third during 2011. Five additional
models are scheduled for delivery through 2012,
with initial models designated for land-based

                                 Page 98                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                Common Name: AMF JTRS

 Airborne and Maritime/Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System (AMF JTRS)
DOD’s JTRS program is developing software-
                                                                          AMF JTRS Small Airborne               AMF JTRS Maritime – Fixed Station
defined radios that will interoperate with existing
radios and increase communications and
networking capabilities. The AMF program will
develop radios and associated equipment for
integration into nearly 160 different types of aircraft,
ships, and fixed stations. The program was
developing two radios based on a common
architecture: a 2-channel small airborne radio and
4-channel maritime/fixed station radio. DOD has
suspended development work on the 4-channel
radio.
                                                                   Source: Lockheed Martin.



   Concept            System development                                                Production

                 Development         Design            GAO                       SA production      M/F production                 Initial
                     start           review           review                       decision            decision                  capability
                    (3/08)           (11/09)          (1/12)                        (11/12)             (TBD)                     (10/15)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                      As of            Latest           Percent
 Program office: San Diego, CA                                                                        10/2008           08/2011           change
 Funding needed to complete:                   Research and development cost                         $1,945.0          $1,957.0                0.6
  R&D: $593.7 million                          Procurement cost                                      $6,209.0          $6,203.8               -0.1
  Procurement: $6,203.8 million                Total program cost                                    $8,154.1          $8,160.8                0.1
  Total funding: $6,797.5 million              Program unit cost                                        $.301             $.301                0.1
  Procurement quantity: 26,878                 Total quantities                                        27,102            27,102                0.0
                                               Acquisition cycle time (months)                             80                91              13.8
                                               The program office reported quantities in terms of channels rather than radios.




The AMF JTRS program plans to enter production                                      Attainment of Product Knowledge
in November 2012, but it remains at risk for late
and costly design changes until its critical                         As of January 2012
technologies have been demonstrated in a                             Resources and requirements match
realistic environment and other risks have been                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
resolved. Growth in the processing requirements                        environment
for one key AMF JTRS waveform—the wideband                           ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
networking waveform—could require a hardware
                                                                     ● Complete preliminary design review
redesign. However, the program will not be able
to determine whether one is needed until summer                      Product design is stable
2012 when the contractor demonstrates the                            ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
waveform on an engineering development model.                        ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
The AMF JTRS program has been directed by the
                                                                     Manufacturing processes are mature
Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
Technology and Logistics to restructure and delay                    ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

further development of the maritime/fixed station                    ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
radio because of unacceptable schedule delays                        ● Test a production-representative prototype
and cost growth. Program officials are currently
preparing a restructure plan.                                            Knowledge attained                                  Information not available
                                                                         Knowledge not attained                              Not applicable


                                         Page 99                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: AMF JTRS

AMF JTRS Program                                          Production Maturity
                                                          The AMF JTRS program plans to begin production
                                                          in November 2012 with manufacturing processes
Technology Maturity
                                                          that have been demonstrated, but are not in control.
DOD approved the AMF JTRS program for entry               A joint government-contractor assessment team
into system development in March 2008 with all five       has conducted manufacturing readiness level
of its critical technologies nearing maturity.            assessments—which include assessing statistical
According to the program, the maturity of these           process controls—at each manufacturing site. The
technologies has not changed. The program will not        program’s projected level of manufacturing
conduct a technology readiness assessment prior to        readiness indicates that not all statistical process
the small airborne radio’s production decision, as        controls will be in place at the start of production.
previously planned, because it is no longer required      Program officials reported that the prime contractor
by DOD.                                                   qualified a second manufacturing source.
Design Maturity                                           Other Program Issues
The AMF JTRS design is currently stable; however,         In September 2011, the Under Secretary of Defense
the program remains at risk for design changes until      for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics directed
its critical technologies have been demonstrated in       that the AMF JTRS program be restructured
a realistic environment and other risks have been         because of unacceptable schedule delays and cost
resolved. AMF JTRS’ ability to meet its performance       growth. The development of the maritime/fixed
requirements is dependent on waveforms from the           station radio was delayed and the Joint
JTRS Network Enterprise Domain program. Growth            Requirements Oversight Council was requested to
in the processing requirements for one key AMF            reconsider the requirement. According to the
JTRS waveform—the wideband networking                     program, the military services have agreed that the
waveform—could result in design changes.                  small airborne radio can meet the maritime/fixed
According to program officials, the issue can be          station requirements. In addition, the program was
addressed by either making the waveform run more          directed to restructure the AMF JTRS contract to
efficiently on the radio through software changes—        reduce the government’s cost risk for completing
the preferred solution—or by introducing a more-          development of the small airborne radio and limit
capable processor into the radio, which would             work to key waveforms.
require a hardware redesign. The program will not
be able to determine whether the waveform’s               Program Office Comments
processing requirements can be reduced enough
                                                          In commenting on a draft of this assessment, AMF
through efficiency gains until the contractor
                                                          JTRS program officials provided technical
demonstrates the waveform on a small airborne
                                                          comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.
engineering development model. There is a risk the
delivery of the hardware for these models will be
delayed. According to program officials, the Navy’s
Operational Test and Evaluation Force will conduct
an operational assessment of the small airborne
radio in preparation for its production decision,
which is scheduled for November 2012.

According to the program office, AMF JTRS is on
track to receive its security certification from the
National Security Agency in early fiscal year 2013,
but it will require an additional certification for its
next software build, which includes functionality
related to two key waveforms.




                                    Page 100                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                        Common Name: JTRS HMS

      Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Handheld, Manpack, and Small Form Fit (HMS)
DOD’s JTRS program is developing software-
defined radios that will interoperate with existing
radios and increase communications and
networking capabilities. The JTRS HMS program is
currently developing four radios: the Rifleman radio
and small form fit radio D for unclassified use and
the manpack radio and small form fit radio B for use
in a classified domain. A subset of the manpack
radios will be interoperable with the Mobile User
Objective System (MUOS), a satellite
communication system that will support radio
terminals worldwide.
                                                               Source: General Dynamics C4S.



   Concept        System development         Production

              Program/                    Low-rate         GAO        Initial   Second low-     Full-rate  Full-rate  Initial
          development start               decision        review  capability— rate decision— decision— decision— capability—
                (4/04)                     (6/11)         (1/12) Rifleman radio  manpack    Rifleman radio manpack manpack
                                                                      (1/12)       (3/12)        (5/12)     (12/12)  (12/12)



 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: General Dynamics C4                                                             As of        Latest           Percent
 Systems, Inc.                                                                                   05/2004       11/2011           change
 Program office: San Diego, CA                 Research and development cost                      $544.7      $1,272.3             133.6
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                 $9,492.8      $7,085.7             -25.4
  R&D: $352.5 million                          Total program cost                              $10,037.5      $8,357.9             -16.7
  Procurement: $7,022.1 million                Program unit cost                                   $.031         $.031               1.0
  Total funding: $7,374.6 million              Total quantities                                  328,674       270,951             -17.6
  Procurement quantity: 264,019                Acquisition cycle time (months)                        85           104              22.4




The JTRS HMS program entered production in                                     Attainment of Product Knowledge
June 2011 without demonstrating or assessing
the maturity of all its critical technologies and with           As of January 2012
a lower level of manufacturing readiness than                    Resources and requirements match
recommended by guidance. According to the                        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
program, its radio designs are stable; however,                    environment
the program is still making software changes, and                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
reliability and heat-related issues were identified
                                                                 ● Complete preliminary design review
in a June/July 2011 manpack test event. Manpack
production was initially limited to 100 radios                   Product design is stable
because of concerns about its maturity and                       ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
performance in testing. A second production                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
decision is expected for the manpack radio in
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
March 2012. The estimated cost of the program
has increased by $3.5 billion from what the                      ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

program reported in 2010 as quantities increased                 ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
to meet military service needs and to fulfill some               ● Test a production-representative prototype
of the requirements of the cancelled JTRS
Ground Mobile Radios program.                                        Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                         Page 101                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JTRS HMS

JTRS HMS Program                                            have been steadily increasing, so processes once
                                                            deemed critical are now considered either key or
                                                            standard processes.
Technology Maturity
The JTRS HMS Rifleman radio entered production              Other Program Issues
in June 2011 without demonstrating the maturity of          The HMS program has experienced several
one of its critical technologies—the soldier radio          changes to the number and types of radios it plans
waveform—in a realistic environment. The program            to buy since the start of development. Initially, the
office does not expect the assessment of the                program planned to buy 328,674 radios at a cost of
manpack radio’s four critical technologies to be            $10 billion. In 2010, the number of radios was
completed until April 2012.                                 215,961 and the cost was $4.9 billion. In 2011,
                                                            quantities and cost increased to 270,951 and $8.4
Design Maturity                                             billion to accommodate requests for more radios
According to the JTRS HMS program, its radio                from the military services and to fulfill some of the
designs are stable; however, the program is still           requirements of the cancelled JTRS Ground Mobile
demonstrating its critical technologies, making             Radios program. At the same time, the program
software changes, and addressing reliability and            stopped developing two small form fit radios and the
heat-related issues. The National Security Agency           2-channel handheld radio. Unit costs have
(NSA) has requested that the program modify some            increased for the remaining small form fit and
of its software code as part of its certification           manpack radios, and could continue to grow for
process. NSA certification, which is required due to        future manpack variants. While the program office
JTRS’s information-assurance needs, was expected            expects that competition will lower the procurement
to be complete for both radios by the end of 2011.          unit cost, program officials noted that delays in the
Additionally, reliability and heat-related issues were      MUOS program will likely have negative effects on
identified in June/July 2011 manpack testing.               the manpack radio’s research and development
Program officials attributed the problems to poor           cost and schedule. According to program officials,
training of radio operators and do not anticipate that      congressional funding reductions in fiscal year 2012
design changes will be needed to address them.              will also delay future releases of the manpack
The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,             radio—including the MUOS-capable variant—and
Technology and Logistics has stated that the                reduce planned radio purchases.
reliability and heat issues are significant risks for the
manpack and limited its initial procurement to 100          Program Office Comments
radios. A second production decision is planned for         In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
March 2012 followed by operational testing in May           program office provided technical comments, which
2012. The Rifleman radio also fell short of its             were incorporated as appropriate.
reliability requirement in testing conducted in early
2011. However, according to program officials, the
radio’s performance was consistent with its
reliability growth plan and they expect the radio will
exceed its reliability requirements during operational
testing, which is expected to be complete by
February 2012.

Production Maturity
The JTRS manpack and Rifleman radios entered
production in June 2011 at a lower level of maturity
than DOD’s manufacturing readiness level
deskbook recommends. However, the program did
demonstrate the production process for the
Rifleman radio. According to the program office, the
maturity of JTRS HMS manufacturing processes



                                     Page 102                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                    Common Name: KC-46

                               KC-46 Tanker Modernization Program
The KC-46 tanker program is the first of three
planned phases to replace the Air Force’s fleet of
KC-135 tankers, which have been its primary aerial
refueling aircraft for more than 50 years. The initial
purchase of 179 KC-46 aircraft is intended to
replace roughly one-third of the KC-135 fleet’s
current capability. In addition to aerial refueling, the
aircraft are being designed as a multirole platform
supporting global attack, airlift, aircraft deployment,
special operations, aeromedical evacuation, and
combat search and rescue.

                                                               Source: © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.



   Concept    System development                                                      Production

         Development                GAO       Preliminary    Critical           Low-rate                 Initial  Required assets
             start                 review       design    design review         decision               capability    available
            (2/11)                 (1/12)       review        (7/13)             (8/15)                 (5/16)        (8/17)
                                                (3/12)



 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                              As of          Latest          Percent
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,                                                               08/2011         08/2011          change
 OH                                            Research and development cost                        $6,899.4        $6,899.4              0.0
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                    $33,502.6       $33,502.6              0.0
  R&D: $6,055.9 million                        Total program cost                                  $44,127.2       $44,127.2              0.0
  Procurement: $33,502.6 million               Program unit cost                                    $246.520        $246.520              0.0
  Total funding: $43,283.6 million             Total quantities                                          179             179              0.0
  Procurement quantity: 175                    Acquisition cycle time (months)                            78              78              0.0




According to the Air Force, the development risk                                 Attainment of Product Knowledge
for the KC-46 is low to moderate because it will
utilize a commercial derivative aircraft and                     As of January 2012
maturing technologies; the integration of military               Resources and requirements match
software and hardware with the aircraft is the                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
primary risk. The KC-46 tanker program entered                     environment
system development in February 2011 with its                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
three critical technologies nearing maturity. The
                                                                 ● Complete preliminary design review
program was granted a waiver to enter
development without conducting a preliminary                     Product design is stable
design review, but the program plans to hold this                ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
review in March 2012. The program also plans to                  ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
have a stable design by its July 2013 critical
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
design review. The KC-46 program is using a
fixed-price incentive contract for development                   ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

with options for production. The program office                  ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
noted that stable requirements and funding will be               ● Test a production-representative prototype
key to mitigating potential cost growth.
                                                                      Knowledge attained                                 Information not available
                                                                      Knowledge not attained                             Not applicable


                                         Page 103                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: KC-46

KC-46 Program                                            will be assessed using manufacturing readiness
                                                         levels—a tool used to support assessments of
                                                         manufacturing risks.
Technology Maturity
According to an independent technology readiness         The significant concurrency between development,
assessment, KC-46 entered system development             testing, and production activities poses a schedule
with its three critical technologies nearing maturity.   risk for the KC-46 program. Following a successful
These technologies are a three-dimensional display       initial production decision, the Air Force plans to
to monitor and enable aerial refueling activities, and   exercise the first two production contract options.
two types of software being developed to increase        After the options are exercised, Boeing will be
situational awareness and enable automatic aircraft      required to provide the Air Force with a total of 18
rerouting to avoid potential threats. The integration    operationally ready aircraft 78 months after
of military hardware and software on the KC-46           development contract award, which would be by
aircraft’s commercial derivative airframe has been       August 2017. Further contract options are planned
identified as the primary technical risk for the         to continue through 2027. According to program
program. Other technical risks include software          officials, the government will hold Boeing
development and the redesign of wing aerial              accountable to the terms and conditions of the
refueling pods. In addition, the Federal Aviation        contract and seek consideration from Boeing if they
Administration will have to certify both the Boeing      do not perform to the contract requirements.
767-2C airframe and KC-46 tanker for air
worthiness.                                              Other Program Issues
                                                         The Air Force awarded a $4.4 billion fixed-price
Design Maturity                                          incentive (firm target) contract to Boeing with a $4.9
The KC-46 tanker is a commercial derivative aircraft     billion ceiling price for four development aircraft with
estimated to be 80 percent common with the Boeing        options for the remaining 175 planned production
767 family of commercial platforms in terms of the       aircraft. The options establish firm-fixed pricing for
airframe, and about 80 percent common with other         low-rate initial production lots and not-to-exceed
Boeing commercial platforms in terms of system           pricing for full-rate production lots. The program
components. The KC-46 program did not require a          office cites stable requirements and funding as keys
technology development phase because it was              to mitigating potential cost growth.
assessed as having low to moderate development
risk, and thus, did not hold a preliminary design        Program Office Comments
review prior to beginning system development. The        In commenting on a draft of this assessment, DOD
program received a waiver for this requirement and       stated the program mitigated the greatest KC-46
plans to hold this review in March 2012—about 13         risk to the taxpayer—cost growth and open ended
months after development start. We have previously       financial liability—by negotiating the competitive
reported that holding a preliminary design review        fixed-price incentive development contract with firm-
prior to development start can ensure requirements       fixed and not-to-exceed pricing for production. In
are well-defined and feasible. The program               addition, the program is mitigating the development
completed its system functional review—a                 schedule risk by maintaining tight oversight of
predecessor to this review—in November 2011              contract execution to ensure Boeing delivers on its
resulting in no significant changes to program           contract commitments. DOD also stated the KC-46
requirements. The program plans to demonstrate           program is being managed in an event-based
the system’s design is stable and have 90 percent        manner and the approval to begin production is not
of KC-46 design drawings released by its projected       driven by a contractually required date. DOD will
July 2013 critical design review.                        mitigate the risk posed by concurrency by ensuring
                                                         that adequate testing is completed prior to the
Production Maturity                                      production decision in addition to the contract
The KC-46 program will not collect statistical           provision requiring Boeing to incorporate fixes to
process control data for critical manufacturing          issues found during testing into production aircraft
processes, but indicated that production maturity        at no additional cost. DOD and the Air Force also
                                                         provided technical comments, which were
                                                         incorporated as appropriate.

                                   Page 104                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                              Common Name: LHA 6 America Class

                           LHA Replacement Amphibious Assault Ship
The Navy’s LHA 6 class will replace the LHA 1
Tarawa-class amphibious assault ships. LHA 6 is a
modified variant of the fielded LHD 8. It will feature
enhanced aviation capabilities and is designed to
support all afloat Marine Corps aviation assets in an
expeditionary strike group. LHA 6 construction
began in December 2008 and ship delivery is
expected in October 2013. The LHA 6 class
includes three ships. Navy officials expect to award
the construction contract for LHA 7 by May 2012,
with construction start planned for April 2013.

                                                               Source: U.S. Navy.




  Concept                         System development                   Production

       Program                 Contract                          Construction                     GAO          Ship                Initial
         start                  award                                start                       review       delivery           capability
        (7/01)                  (6/07)                             (12/08)                       (1/12)       (10/13)              (4/15)




 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Huntington Ingalls                                                              As of       Latest           Percent
 Industries                                                                                      01/2006      12/2010           change
 Program office: Washington, DC                 Research and development cost                     $220.9       $350.9              58.8
 Funding needed to complete:                    Procurement cost                                $2,959.2     $9,742.8             229.2
   R&D: $97.3 million                           Total program cost                              $3,180.2    $10,095.2             217.4
   Procurement: $5,627.9 million                Program unit cost                             $3,180.150   $3,365.053               5.8
   Total funding: $5,726.2 million              Total quantities                                       1            3             200.0
   Procurement quantity: 1                      Acquisition cycle time (months)                      146          165              13.0




LHA 6 began construction in December 2008 with                                  Attainment of Product Knowledge
mature critical technologies, but a design that was
only 65 percent complete. As of August 2011, the                As of January 2012
LHA 6 design was 98 percent complete and its                    Resources and requirements match
construction was 52 percent complete. The                       ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
shipbuilder is projecting an additional 6-month                    environment
delay in the delivery of the ship, which is now                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                   environment
expected in October 2013. According to the
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
program office, this delay was caused by design
quality issues—which have resulted in high levels                Product design is stable
of rework during construction—shortfalls in                     ● Complete 100 percent of design
skilled-trade labor at the shipyard, problems                    ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
implementing new shipbuilder business systems,
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
and delays in receiving key materials. The LHA 6
program may also incur additional cost growth if                ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

postdelivery rework of the ship’s deck is                       ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
necessary to cope with the intense, hot                         ● Test a production-representative prototype
downwash from the Joint Strike Fighter, which
began shipboard testing in October 2011.                             Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                          Page 105                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: LHA 6 America Class

LHA 6 America Class Program                               said the manning situation at the shipyard has
                                                          improved after the delivery of other Navy and Coast
                                                          Guard ships.
Technology Maturity
All LHA critical technologies were mature when the        LHA 7 will have a design that is very similar to
program awarded its construction contract in June         LHA 6. The ship will include a new firefighting
2007. Although not considered critical technologies,      system and updates to the radar and the command,
the program has identified six key subsystems             control, communications, computers, and
necessary to achieve LHA 6’s full capabilities. Five      intelligence systems. Design changes to LHA 8 are
of these subsystems are mature. The sixth, the            projected to be more significant because the Navy
Joint Precision Approach and Landing System, a            is expected to include a well deck on the ship, which
Global Positioning System–based aircraft landing          would accommodate landing and attack craft, but
system, is still in development. LHA 6 can still meet     negatively affect aviation capabilities such as fuel
its operational requirements without this system by       storage space.
using backup aviation control systems. The
program office had also previously identified the         Other Program Issues
machinery control system as a potential risk              LHA 6 may experience further cost growth due to
because the LHD 8 program, which is responsible           issues related to the deployment of the Joint Strike
for developing it, was experiencing delays in its         Fighter. Specifically, postdelivery rework of the
development. However, according to program                ship’s deck may be necessary to cope with the heat
officials, the system’s development, testing, and         from the aircraft’s exhaust and downwash, which
delivery are progressing on or ahead of LHA 6’s           could warp the deck or damage deck equipment. In
schedule needs. Shipboard integration testing of the      October 2011, the Navy began at-sea testing on the
machinery control system is scheduled to begin in         USS Wasp to determine how LHA 6 and other JSF-
the second quarter of 2012.                               capable ships may need to modify their flight decks.
Design and Production Maturity                            Program Office Comments
The LHA 6 began construction in December 2008             In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
with only 65 percent of its design complete, and          Navy stated that LHA 6, awarded under a fixed-
subsequent design quality issues have caused a            price contract, was 60 percent complete as of
greater number of design changes than anticipated         February 2012 and on track to be delivered in fiscal
and high levels of rework during construction. The        year 2014. The Navy also stated that LHA 6
shipbuilder is also projecting an additional 6-month      experienced a higher rework rate than LHD 8 at the
delay in the delivery of LHA 6, which is now              same stage of construction for two main reasons.
expected in October 2013. As of August 2011, the          First, the shipbuilder performed more work at an
LHA 6 design was 98 percent complete and its              earlier phase by increasing the amount of
construction was 52 percent complete. The LHA 6’s         preoutfitting in the ship compared to LHD 8. More
rework rate is more than twice that of the LHD 8—         rework is being experienced earlier in construction,
the last amphibious assault ship built—at the same        where it is less expensive to perform. LHD 8
stage of construction. According to program               experienced the majority of rework at later
officials, LHA 6 has experienced a significant            construction phases. Second, the significant
number of physical interference issues during             physical interference issues during construction
construction that have required modifications,            have required modification. Shipbuilder quality
including ripping out of completed work, and caused       performance is improving in electrical cable
work to stop at times. The program office attributes      installation, hull joint fit-up, and weld quality, and
the high level of rework to insufficient quality checks   several construction milestones, such as stern
of drawings prior to construction start. According to     release, have been achieved ahead of schedule.
the program, shortfalls in skilled-trade labor at the     Test procedure development is also ahead of
shipyard, problems implementing new shipbuilder           schedule. The Navy also provided technical
business systems, and delays in receiving key             comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.
materials have also contributed to the projected
delay in the delivery of the ship. Program officials


                                   Page 106                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                                  Common Name: LCS

                                          Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
The Navy’s LCS is designed to perform mine
countermeasures, antisubmarine warfare, and
surface warfare missions. It consists of the ship
itself, or seaframe, and the mission package it
deploys. The Navy bought the first four seaframes
in two unique designs. In December 2010, the Navy
changed its planned strategy of choosing one
design for future ships and instead, subsequently
awarded a contract for a block buy of up to 10 ships
to both contractors. We assessed both seaframe
designs.

                                                                   Sources: Lockheed Martin (left); General Dynamics (right).



   Concept              System development              Production

       Program     Development                         LCS 1               LCS 2              New program                        GAO              Initial
         start         start                        production          production          baseline approved                   review          capability
        (9/02)        (5/04)                         decision            decision                 (2/11)                        (1/12)            (1/14)
                                                      (12/04)             (10/05)



 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Austal USA, General                                                                      As of              Latest            Percent
 Dynamics, Lockheed Martin                                                                                05/2004             12/2010            change
 Program office: Washington, DC                Research and development cost                               $887.0            $3,520.1              296.9
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                            $471.6           $29,136.1            6,078.2
  R&D: $1,112.5 million                        Total program cost                                        $1,358.6           $32,867.8            2,319.3
  Procurement: $25,001.1 million               Program unit cost                                           $339.6           $597.596                76.0
  Total funding: $26,325.2 million             Total quantities                                                 4                  55            1,275.0
  Procurement quantity: 47                     Acquisition cycle time (months)                                 41                 116              182.9
                                               Cost data are for the seaframe only. The 2004 estimate corresponds with program initiation. It was
                                               pre–milestone B and did not reflect the full 55-ship program. Research and development funding
                                               includes detail design and construction of two ships.


The LCS program is entering a period of steady                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
production and has demonstrated the maturity of
most of its critical technologies; however, it                       As of January 2012
continues to make design and production process                      Resources and requirements match
changes. The Navy started construction of LCS 1                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
and 2 without a stable design and has had to                           environment
incorporate design changes on follow-on                              ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
seaframes. The Navy believes it has identified
                                                                     ● Complete preliminary design review
measures to address cracking on the LCS 1’s
superstructure and hull and corrosion issues on                      Product design is stable
LCS 2 that can be achieved within the program’s                      ● Complete three-dimensional product model
budget. DOD’s Office of the Director, Cost                           ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
Assessment and Program Evaluation, has stated
                                                                     Manufacturing processes are mature
that the program may be at risk for cost growth
because its approved cost estimate reflects                          ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

competitive pricing from recent contracts that may                   ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
not materialize in the future.                                       ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                          Knowledge attained                                        Information not available
                                                                          Knowledge not attained                                    Not applicable


                                         Page 107                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: LCS

LCS Program                                             in operation for over a year, due to insufficient
                                                        insulation between the aluminum hull and the steel
                                                        water jet. The Navy plans to install a system to
Technology Maturity                                     mitigate the deterioration of metals on LCS 2 and
Sixteen of the 19 critical technologies for both LCS    future seaframes. The Navy believes these
designs are mature and have been demonstrated in        measures are sufficient to address the cracking and
a realistic environment. Three technologies—            corrosion issues and can be done within the
LCS 1’s overhead launch and retrieval system and        program’s budget.
LCS 2’s aluminum structure and trimaran hull—are
nearing maturity. The LCS 1 overhead launch and         Other Program Issues
retrieval system, which is essential to antisubmarine   The LCS’s approved program baseline is based on
warfare and mine countermeasures missions, has          a cost estimate that is lower than an independent
moved weight equivalent to a mission system, but        cost estimate from the Office of the Director, Cost
has not yet demonstrated its maturity by loading        Assessment and Program Evaluation. The Under
and offloading an actual mission module vehicle.        Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology
Program officials stated that a test of the Remote      and Logistics stated that the approved cost estimate
Multi-Mission Vehicle with the launch and recovery      is reasonable as it reflects the expectation that
system has not been scheduled and will depend on        recent competitive pricing will continue for future
the availability of LCS 1 and the vehicle.              contracts. The Director, Cost Assessment and
Developmental testing for the vehicle is scheduled      Program Evaluation, expressed concern that this
for 2013. In addition, program officials believe that   approach puts the program at risk for future cost
LCS 2’s aluminum structure and trimaran hull are        growth if these savings do not materialize.
mature because the ship is operational. However,
an April 2010 independent technology readiness          Program Office Comments
assessment did not reach the same conclusion
                                                        In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
about the aluminum structure, in part because of the
                                                        Navy stated that it has retired the increased
inability to assure a 20 year service life.
                                                        construction costs associated with the concurrent
                                                        design/build period. The Navy noted that due to the
Design and Production Maturity
                                                        complex nature of ship design and construction,
The Navy started construction of LCS 1 and 2            lead ships generally have design changes that are
without a stable design and has had to incorporate      incorporated into follow-on ships as a result of
design and production changes into follow-on            extensive testing and ship underway lessons
seaframes. When the LCS 1 and 2 construction            learned. That is common practice in ships, even
contracts were awarded, the basic and functional        with a stable baseline, as evidenced by changes
design of each seaframe were respectively only 20       incorporated in the DDG 51 Class. LCS 3 and 4
percent and 15 percent complete. Construction           have experienced minimal design changes and
began 1 to 2 months following these contract            reflect learning, with both shipbuilders investing in
awards. This concurrent design-build strategy           their shipyards. LCS 3 is 99 percent complete and
ultimately led to increases in construction costs.      will deliver in June 2012. LCS 4 was about 80
                                                        percent complete at launch and was christened in
LCS 1 has been in operation for about 3 years and       January 2012. LCS 5 completed a detail design
the Navy has discovered cracks in the                   review and a production readiness review and its
superstructure and hull. The program office             fabrication began in August 2011. LCS 6 followed
indicated that the cracks occurred either in high       suit and started fabrication in August 2011.
stress areas on the ship or due to workmanship          Technical comments provided by the Navy were
issues, such as welding deficiencies. Program           incorporated as appropriate.
officials stated that all cracks have been fixed and
design changes and improved production
processes, such as improving accessibility in
welding areas, are being developed. The design
changes, which decrease the stress on parts of the
ship, will also be made on LCS 3, which is almost
complete, as well as future seaframes. The Navy
also reported corrosion on LCS 2, which has been
                                  Page 108                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                             Common Name: LCS Modules

                                 Littoral Combat Ship–Mission Modules
The Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) will perform
mine countermeasures (MCM), surface warfare
(SUW), and antisubmarine warfare (ASW) missions
using mission modules. Modules include weapons
and sensors operating from MH-60 helicopters and
unmanned vehicles, which will be launched and
recovered from both LCS seaframes. The mission
modules program is separate from the LCS
seaframe for management and reporting purposes.
The Navy has defined increments of MCM, SUW,
and ASW capability that it plans to deliver
incrementally, over time.
                                                                   Source: © Northrop Grumman Corporation.



   Concept               System development

     LCS program     First MCM      First SUW                            GAO     DOD                    Initial    Initial              Initial
         start        delivery       delivery                           review program                capability capability           capability
        (5/04)         (9/07)         (7/08)                            (1/12) review                   MCM        SUW                  ASW
                                                                                (2012)                  (9/13)    (9/13)                (9/16)



 Program Essentials                             Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Multiple                                                                              As of         Latest           Percent
 Program office: Washington, DC                                                                        08/2007        09/2011           change
 Funding FY12 to FY16:                          Research and development cost                           $491.8       $1,652.4             236.0
  R&D: $657.4 million                           Procurement cost                                      $3,259.2       $1,228.0             -62.3
  Procurement: $969.3 million                   Total program cost                                    $3,751.0       $2,880.4             -23.2
  Total funding: $1,626.7 million               Program unit cost                                          NA             NA                NA
  Procurement quantity: 18                      Total quantities                                            64             65               1.6
                                                Acquisition cycle time (months)                             NA            NA                NA
                                                Costs are from program start through fiscal year 2016. The program’s cost estimate has been
                                                updated by the Navy and a baseline will be set after DOD’s upcoming review of the program.



The MCM, SUW, and ASW mission modules, at                                          Attainment of Product Knowledge
full capability, require a total of 24 critical
technologies, including sensors, vehicles, and                       Projected as of January 2012
weapons—none of which, at full capability, have                      Resources and requirements match
been tested on board LCS in a realistic                              ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
environment. In addition, some of the sensors,                         environment
vehicles, and weapons that the Navy previously                       ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
assessed as mature are being replaced because
                                                                     ● Complete preliminary design review
of poor performance or increasing costs. The
Navy is continuing developmental testing but has                     Product design is stable
yet to begin operational testing. The Navy has                       ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
accepted delivery of two partially capable MCM                       ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
and SUW mission modules, each, for a total of
                                                                     Manufacturing processes are mature
four. In 2012, the Navy plans to accept delivery of
a total of three MCM and SUW mission modules                         ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

and also plans to procure two more partially                         ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
capable modules. The Navy plans to procure 24,                       ● Test a production-representative prototype
and deliver 9, LCS seaframes by 2016, before
delivering a single fully capable mission module.                        Knowledge attained                                Information not available
                                                                         Knowledge not attained                            Not applicable


                                        Page 109                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: LCS Modules

LCS Modules Program                                       procuring the module and is redesigning it.
                                                          According to program officials, the new design
                                                          includes a variable-depth sonar and towed array,
Mine Countermeasures (MCM)                                unmanned aerial vehicle, helicopter, and torpedo
The Navy has accepted delivery of two partially           countermeasure. These ASW technologies are in
capable MCM mission modules and, in 2012,                 use by another navy, but they have not been
expects to accept delivery of a module and procure        adapted for use with LCS. In 2012, the Navy will
another module. The Navy plans to begin                   begin engineering analysis of the new ASW module,
operational testing onboard LCS in 2012, but the          followed by development start in 2013 and initial
contents of the MCM module are still changing to          delivery in fiscal year 2016.
address cost and capability concerns. For example,
the remote minehunting system (RMS), comprised            Other Program Issues
of an underwater vehicle and sonar, experienced a         The Navy plans to purchase 24, and deliver 9, LCS
Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach in 2009. Further,           seaframes by 2016; however, it will not have a
the Navy has found performance issues, in part            single fully capable mission module at that time. As
because the equipment required to launch and              of September 2011, the program planned to conduct
recover the underwater vehicle is not reliable and        a key DOD review in January 2012; however, this
sonar performance does not currently meet                 review, which includes a program cost estimate and
threshold requirements. Since the Navy already            technology maturity assessment, has been delayed
purchased 10 underwater vehicles and determined           to an unspecified date in 2012.
there is no better alternative, RMS will remain in the
module. The Navy is currently executing a plan to         Program Office Comments
improve its reliability and then plans to begin
                                                          In commenting on a draft of the assessment, the
producing the upgraded RMS in 2015. The rapid
                                                          program office did not concur with our assessment
airborne mine clearance system was initially part of
                                                          of the LCS Mission Modules; specifically with regard
the MCM module, but was removed because of
                                                          to the state of development and maturity of the
performance problems when destroying below-
                                                          mission modules. The program believes that recent
surface mines. The Navy plans to replace it by
                                                          testing has been very successful. For example, the
2017. The Navy has also removed the unmanned
                                                          MCM module has recently completed
surface vehicle (USV) and unmanned influence
                                                          developmental and end-to-end testing to neutralize
sweep system from its upcoming mission module.
                                                          mines. The SUW module supported deployment of
The USV design does not meet requirements,
                                                          LCS 1 on missions that resulted in the capture of
requiring a 6-year effort to improve the system’s
                                                          cocaine. From inception, the program has remained
capabilities. The Navy has also deferred delivery of
                                                          stable, fielding systems as they achieve the
two other MCM systems.
                                                          required level of maturity. The few systems
                                                          experiencing issues are being replaced with
Surface Warfare (SUW)
                                                          alternative systems or are targets of increased
The Navy has accepted delivery of two partial SUW         focus and attention. The program also provided
modules, including two 30 millimeter guns and a           technical comments, which were incorporated as
prototype of an 11-meter small boat. In 2012, the         appropriate.
Navy plans to accept delivery of two and procure
one more partial module. The Navy has replaced            GAO Response
the cancelled Non-Line-of-Sight Launch System—
                                                          Major elements of each of the three mission
which had a proposed range of 21 nautical miles—
                                                          modules have yet to be demonstrated and there are
with the Griffin missile, which according to officials,
                                                          unknowns about their cost and performance. Until
will initially have a range of 3 miles. The Navy will
                                                          the program demonstrates these capabilities in a
not incorporate a surface-to-surface missile that can
                                                          realistic environment, the program will be at
meet the module’s requirements until after 2017
                                                          increased risk of cost growth, schedule delays, and
following a full and open competition.
                                                          performance shortfalls.
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW)
In 2008, the Navy took delivery of one partially
capable ASW module at a cost of over $200 million,
but subsequently cancelled plans to continue
                                   Page 110                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                   Common Name: MUOS

                               Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)
The Navy’s MUOS, a satellite communication
system, is expected to provide a worldwide,
multiservice population of mobile and fixed-site
terminal users with increased narrowband
communications capacity and improved availability
for small terminal users. MUOS will replace the
Ultra High Frequency (UHF) Follow-On (UFO)
satellite system currently in operation and provide
interoperability with legacy terminals. MUOS
consists of a network of satellites and an integrated
ground network. We assessed both the space and
ground segments.
                                                               Source: © 2007 Lockheed Martin.




   Concept              System development                              Production

      Program       Development                       Design       Production                     GAO      On-orbit                    Full
        start           start                         review        decision                     review   capability                 capability
       (9/02)          (9/04)                         (3/07)         (2/08)                      (1/12)     (5/12)                    (TBD)



 Program Essentials                        Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                    As of          Latest            Percent
 Space Systems                                                                                      09/2004         08/2011            change
 Program office: San Diego, CA             Research and development cost                           $3,647.7        $4,218.3                15.6
 Funding needed to complete:               Procurement cost                                        $3,035.0        $2,694.3               -11.2
  R&D: $470.1 million                      Total program cost                                      $6,721.3        $6,978.2                 3.8
  Procurement: $1,125.1 million            Program unit cost                                     $1,120.222      $1,163.035                 3.8
  Total funding: $1,595.2 million          Total quantities                                               6               6                 0.0
  Procurement quantity: 1                  Acquisition cycle time (months)                               90             116                28.9
                                           The latest cost data do not reflect the current cost of the program. A new acquisition program baseline
                                           has not yet been approved.



The MUOS program’s critical technologies are                                    Attainment of Product Knowledge
mature, its design is stable, and its manufacturing
process maturity is increasing. The first satellite              As of January 2012
has been delivered and is expected to begin on-                  Resources and requirements match
orbit operations in May 2012—26 months later                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
than planned at development start. The delivery                     environment
of MUOS capabilities remains time-critical due to                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                    environment
the past operational failures of two UFO satellites.
                                                                 ● Complete preliminary design review
If the first satellite is launched as scheduled, the
risk of UHF communications capabilities falling                  Product design is stable
below required levels will be substantially                      ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
reduced. However, users will not be able to utilize              ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
many MUOS capabilities until two MUOS
                                                                 Manufacturing processes are mature
satellites are in orbit and because of delays in the
development and testing of a new waveform and                    ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

fielding of user terminals. MUOS user terminal                   ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
procurement and fielding are managed by                          ● Test a production-representative prototype
separate programs.
                                                                      Knowledge attained                                  Information not available
                                                                      Knowledge not attained                              Not applicable


                                     Page 111                               GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: MUOS

MUOS Program                                              communications capability, but there is a risk that
                                                          MUOS capabilities will be significantly underutilized
                                                          because of delays in the JTRS program’s
Technology, Design, and Production Maturity               development and delivery of the new MUOS
The MUOS program’s critical technologies are              waveform and radio terminals. Over 90 percent of
mature, its design is stable, and its manufacturing       the MUOS’s planned capability is enabled by the
process maturity is increasing. The first satellite has   new waveform and JTRS terminals, including
been delivered and four other satellites are being        increases in the amount of data that can be
built. Despite some delays, system-level thermal          transmitted and the ability to transmit both voice and
vacuum testing—used to demonstrate the                    data. Operational testing of the JTRS terminals has
performance of the payload and spacecraft in a            been delayed to February 2014. An independent
simulated space environment—has been completed            review team assessed potential options for
for the first satellite. In addition, the design flaws    completing development of the MUOS waveform
that we reported on last year—including unwanted          and the plan forward is being finalized.
signal interference caused by UHF reflectors and
the hinges that connect solar panels and booms in         In 2009, a Navy-initiated review of the MUOS
the solar array wing assembly—have been                   program found that while it was technically sound,
resolved. These components have been reworked             its schedule was optimistic and its budget was
and tested; final signal interference testing results     inadequate. As a result, the program developed
were completed in November 2011. According to             new cost and schedule baselines. The new baseline
the program office, the production maturity of the        has been under revision since December 2009, but
first MUOS satellite is high. The program has             has not yet been approved.
experienced quality problems in the past that
resulted in cost increases and schedule delays.           Program Office Comments
However, the number of manufacturing defects on           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
the space segment has decreased slightly over time        Navy provided technical comments, which were
as the maturity of the manufacturing process has          incorporated as appropriate.
increased. We could not assess whether MUOS
critical manufacturing processes were in control
because the program does not collect statistical
process control data.

Other Program Issues
The first MUOS satellite has been delivered for a
planned February 2012 launch. Current UHF
communication capabilities are predicted to provide
the required availability level until the first MUOS
satellite begins on-orbit operations—planned for
May 2012. The MUOS program has taken actions to
address a potential capability gap caused by earlier,
unexpected UFO satellite failures by activating dual
digital receiver unit operations on a UFO satellite,
leasing commercial UHF satellite services, initiating
international partner agreements to share UHF
satellite capacity, and planning to enhance digital
receiver unit operations on the second through fifth
MUOS satellites.

According to the program office, its top challenge is
synchronizing deliveries of the MUOS space and
ground segments with compatible Joint Tactical
Radio System (JTRS) terminals. Launching the first
MUOS satellite is important to sustain current UHF

                                   Page 112                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                    Common Name: BAMS UAS

     MQ-4C Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)
The Navy’s MQ-4C BAMS UAS is intended to
provide a persistent maritime intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability
even when no other naval forces are present.
BAMS UAS will operate from five land-based sites
worldwide. It will be part of a family of maritime
patrol and reconnaissance systems that
recapitalizes the Navy’s airborne ISR assets.
Follow-on increments of the program will add a
signals intelligence capability and upgrade the
system’s communication relay. We assessed
Increment 1.
                                                           Source: Northrop Grumman.



   Concept            System development                                       Production

                  Program/               Design           GAO             Low-rate             Initial
                 development             review          review           decision           capability
                     start                (2/11)         (1/12)            (5/13)             (12/15)
                    (4/08)



 Program Essentials                         Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                            As of         Latest         Percent
 Systems Corporation                                                                         02/2009        12/2010         change
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD         Research and development cost                   $3,141.7       $3,245.6             3.3
 Funding needed to complete:                Procurement cost                                $9,323.4       $9,413.9             1.0
  R&D: $1,657.1 million                     Total program cost                             $12,847.6      $13,052.4             1.6
  Procurement: $9,413.9 million             Program unit cost                              $183.537        $186.463             1.6
  Total funding: $11,422.2 million          Total quantities                                      70             70             0.0
  Procurement quantity: 65                  Acquisition cycle time (months)                       92             92             0.0




The BAMS UAS program’s critical technologies                               Attainment of Product Knowledge
are mature and its design is stable; however, the
program does not plan to demonstrate that the               As of January 2012
design performs as expected until April 2012—               Resources and requirements match
more than a year after the critical design review.          ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
According to program officials, the second BAMS                environment
UAS system development aircraft, which will                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                               environment
begin testing in 2012, will be the first aircraft with
                                                            ● Complete preliminary design review
a full sensor suite and the air-to-air radar
subsystem. In November 2011, the BAMS UAS                   Product design is stable
program received approval to build three systems            ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
and ground stations, in part to demonstrate its             ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
manufacturing processes prior to its planned May
                                                            Manufacturing processes are mature
2013 production decision. According to program
officials, the BAMS air vehicle is based on the Air         ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

Force’s RQ-4B Global Hawk with some structural              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
changes to the airframe, but none of these require          ● Test a production-representative prototype
significant changes to manufacturing processes.
                                                                  Knowledge attained                           Information not available
                                                                  Knowledge not attained                       Not applicable


                                      Page 113                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BAMS UAS

BAMS UAS Program                                            other platforms. There are some structural changes
                                                            to the airframe, but none of these require significant
                                                            changes to manufacturing processes.
Technology Maturity
The BAMS UAS program’s critical technologies are            Other Program Issues
mature. DOD and the Navy certified that all BAMS            The BAMS UAS program has not reported any
UAS technologies had been demonstrated in a                 negative effects as a result of past challenges in the
relevant environment before the start of system             Global Hawk program; however, we did not assess
development, and an April 2011 technology                   the effect of the proposed cancellation of the Global
readiness assessment concluded that its one critical        Hawk Block 30 program. According to the BAMS
technology—a hydrocarbon sensor—was mature.                 UAS program office, the performance and reliability
This sensor is identical to one that has been               issues experienced by the Global Hawk during
developed for the Navy’s P-8A program. The                  operational testing have already been addressed for
maturity of the BAMS air-to-air radar subsystem,            the BAMS UAS. In addition, the BAMS UAS
which will enable its sense and avoid capabilities,         program has reported to the Navy on the potential
has not been assessed.                                      cost effects of reduced Global Hawk procurements,
                                                            which occurred after that program experienced a
Design Maturity                                             Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breach of the critical
The BAMS UAS design is stable; however, the                 threshold in 2011. Despite changes to the Global
program does not plan to demonstrate the design             Hawk program, the BAMS UAS program is
performs as expected by testing an integrated               continuing to investigate potential areas of
prototype until April 2012—more than a year after           commonality with it, including a common ground
the critical design review. According to the program        control station architecture, a consolidated
office, 97 percent of the air vehicle’s expected            maintenance hub, and colocated basing for both
design drawings are releasable to manufacturing             UASs abroad. The Navy acquired three additional
and all subsystem critical design reviews have been         Global Hawk Block 10 aircraft divested by the Air
completed. The second BAMS UAS system                       Force. These aircraft will be used to provide
development aircraft, which will begin testing in           additional parts support to maintain the BAMS
2012, will be the first aircraft with a full sensor suite   demonstrator capability supporting overseas
and the air-to-air radar subsystem.                         operations until BAMS UAS reaches initial operating
                                                            capability scheduled for 2015.
The BAMS UAS program poses a significant
software development challenge, utilizing nearly 8          Program Office Comments
million lines of code, of which more than 20 percent        In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
will be newly developed for the program. Program            Navy stated that, while the software development,
officials cited software development as a primary           system integration, and integrated test efforts pose
risk for one subsystem, the air-to-air radar, but           challenges for the BAMS UAS program in the
noted that they still expect it to be ready for the         coming years, proactive risk mitigation and detailed
program’s planned operational assessment in 2013.           cost and schedule management to this point have
                                                            provided the basis for successful completion of
Production Maturity                                         upcoming program milestones. According to
In November 2011, the BAMS UAS program                      officials, the program benefits from strong support
received approval to build three air vehicles and           within the Department of the Navy, fills a
associated ground stations, in part to demonstrate          tremendous need for intelligence, surveillance, and
its manufacturing processes prior to production.            reconnaissance capability, and is on track for initial
According to program officials, the program also            operational capability in fiscal year 2016.
plans to assess manufacturing maturity and risks,           Additionally, the Navy provided technical comments,
using manufacturing readiness levels, before its            which were incorporated as appropriate.
planned production decision in May 2013. The
BAMS aircraft is based on the Air Force’s Global
Hawk RQ-4B, which is in production, and uses
sensor components and entire subsystems from


                                     Page 114                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                          Common Name: NMT

                                    Navy Multiband Terminal (NMT)
The Navy’s NMT is a next-generation maritime
military satellite communications terminal that will
be installed in existing ships, submarines, and shore
sites. NMT is designed to work with the Air Force’s
Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF)
satellite system to provide protected and survivable
satellite communications to naval forces. Its
multiband capabilities will also enable
communications over existing military satellite
communication systems, such as Milstar, Wideband
Global SATCOM, and the Defense Satellite
Communications System.
                                                          Source: © 2008 Raytheon.




   Concept               System development                      Production

                    Development           Design             Low-rate       Operational GAO         Full-rate  Initial     Full
                        start             review             decision         testing   review      decision capability capability
                      (10/03)             (5/08)              (7/10)           (8/11)   (1/12)       (9/12)    (9/12)     (3/17)



 Program Essentials                        Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                 As of          Latest          Percent
 Program office: San Diego, CA                                                            12/2006         08/2011          change
 Funding needed to complete:               Research and development cost                   $697.2          $666.2              -4.4
  R&D: $41.1 million                       Procurement cost                              $1,623.7        $1,214.4            -25.2
  Procurement: $992.6 million              Total program cost                            $2,321.0        $1,880.7            -19.0
  Total funding: $1,033.8 million          Program unit cost                               $6.970          $6.186             -11.2
  Procurement quantity: 189                Total quantities                                   333             304              -8.7
                                           Acquisition cycle time (months)                    107             107               0.0




The NMT program entered production in July                                Attainment of Product Knowledge
2010 with mature critical technologies, a stable
design, and production processes that had been             As of January 2012
demonstrated, but were not in control. The                 Resources and requirements match
program will complete a manufacturing readiness            ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
assessment to demonstrate its maturity prior to its           environment
full-rate production decision, targeted for                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                              environment
September 2012. According to the program office,
                                                           ● Complete preliminary design review
the number of design changes in fiscal year 2011
was greater than anticipated as a result of test           Product design is stable
failures. The NMT program’s software lines of              ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
code also increased after the Navy added a                 ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
capability to support communication with the
                                                           Manufacturing processes are mature
Enhanced Polar System. NMT completed initial
operational test and evaluation in August 2011,            ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

and DOD’s independent test organization found              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
that the system was operationally effective, but           ● Test a production-representative prototype
not operationally suitable because it did not meet
certain reliability requirements during the test.               Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                     Page 115                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: NMT

NMT Program                                               NMT is dependent on AEHF satellites to test its full
                                                          range of capabilities. The first AEHF satellite was
                                                          launched in August 2010; however, a satellite
Technology Maturity                                       propulsion system anomaly delayed the satellite
The NMT program’s two critical technologies—a             from reaching its planned orbit until October 2011.
multiband antenna feed and monolithic microwave           AEHF delays directly affect the ability of the NMT
integrated circuit power amplifiers for Q-band and        program to test its extended-data-rate
Ka-band communication frequencies—are mature.             communications capability. According to NMT
                                                          program officials, risk-reduction testing was
Design Maturity                                           conducted using an advanced AEHF simulator; on-
The NMT’s design is stable and the program has            orbit testing was completed with Milstar satellites;
released all of its expected design drawings.             and ground testing of low-, medium-, and extended-
According to the program office, the number of            data-rate capabilities was done with the second
design changes in fiscal year 2011 was greater than       AEHF satellite. The second AEHF satellite is
anticipated because two subassemblies were                expected to launch in April 2012, and follow-on
redesigned to address failures in testing. The            operational testing, which will include on-orbit AEHF
overall effect of these changes on the program was        satellites, will begin in early fiscal year 2014. In the
minor. The NMT program’s software lines of code           interim, program officials stated that fielded NMT
have increased since the start of production              systems can provide value by accessing existing
because the Navy requested that the program add a         satellite communication systems such as the
capability to support communication with the              Defense Satellite Communications System, Milstar,
Enhanced Polar System. Overall, software                  Wideband Global SATCOM, Interim Polar, and UFO
integration testing is over 95 percent complete with      satellite constellations. The realization of the NMT’s
over 98 percent of the defects resolved.                  full operational capability has been delayed 2 years
                                                          to 2017 to better align with the warfighter’s needs.
Production Maturity
The NMT program office began production in July           Program Office Comments
2010 with processes that had been demonstrated            In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
on a pilot line, but were not in control. The program     Navy stated that the NMT program is in low-rate
estimates that three of its five processes are now in     initial production, moving toward a full-rate
statistical control. According to the program office, a   production decision. The program will demonstrate
production readiness review will be performed prior       the fixes for the shortfalls identified in initial
to the NMT’s full-rate production decision, which is      operational test and evaluation through verification
expected to occur in September 2012. The program          testing, including on operational platforms. The
will also complete a manufacturing readiness              Navy further stated that NMT is committed to
assessment to demonstrate that it is mature enough        providing deployed naval commanders with assured
for full-rate production.                                 access to secure, protected command and control
                                                          and communication capabilities to support the
Other Program Issues                                      exchange of warfighter-critical information. NMT will
NMT completed initial operational test and                support the Navy’s net-centric FORCEnet
evaluation in August 2011. The Navy’s and DOD’s           architecture and act as an enabler for transforming
independent test organizations found that NMT was         operational capability available to the warfighter.
operationally effective, but not operationally suitable   The Navy also provided technical comments, which
because it did not meet certain reliability               were incorporated as appropriate.
requirements. The program has identified corrective
actions to address the shortfalls. As a result of the
test findings, program officials stated they will
extend low-rate production and delay the full-rate
production decision from December 2011 to
September 2012.




                                   Page 116                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                            Common Name: P-8A

                                                  P-8A Poseidon
The Navy’s P-8A Poseidon is a Boeing commercial
derivative aircraft that will replace the P-3C Orion.
Its primary roles are antisubmarine warfare;
antisurface warfare; and intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance. The P-8A is a part of a family
of systems that share the integrated maritime patrol
mission and support the Navy’s maritime warfighting
capability. The program plans to field capabilities in
three increments. We assessed increment one and
made observations on increment two.



                                                            Source: U.S. Navy.




   Concept                    System development                                 Production

       Program           Development               Design                    Low-rate          GAO         Full-rate  Initial
         start               start                 review                    decision         review       decision capability
        (3/00)              (5/04)                 (6/07)                     (8/10)          (1/12)        (4/13)    (7/13)



 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Boeing                                                                      As of        Latest           Percent
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD                                                          05/2004       08/2011           change
 Funding needed to complete:                 Research and development cost                  $7,531.5      $8,215.3               9.1
  R&D: $1,232.4 million                      Procurement cost                              $23,365.2     $24,157.2               3.4
  Procurement: $20,087.9 million             Total program cost                            $31,034.3     $32,969.3               6.2
  Total funding: $21,839.0 million           Program unit cost                              $269.864      $270.240               0.1
  Procurement quantity: 104                  Total quantities                                    115           122               6.1
                                             Acquisition cycle time (months)                     160           160               0.0




The P-8A entered production in August 2010 with                              Attainment of Product Knowledge
mature technologies, a stable design, and proven
production processes. The program is conducting              As of January 2012
its remaining development activities concurrently            Resources and requirements match
with production, which puts the program at                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
increased risk of experiencing late and costly                  environment
design changes. The number of design drawings                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                environment
has increased slightly in the last year to address
                                                             ● Complete preliminary design review
deficiencies discovered during testing. The
manufacturing processes for the P-8A airframe                 Product design is stable
are proven. The processes for key aircraft                   ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
subsystems have also been assessed as                         ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
generally mature, although the program has
                                                              Manufacturing processes are mature
experienced quality issues with some of them.
The Navy has identified the execution of testing             ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

as a risk, which program officials stated has                ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
delayed the start of initial operational test and            ● Test a production-representative prototype
evaluation from April to June 2012. The program
is taking steps to reduce this schedule pressure.                 Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                  Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                       Page 117                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: P-8A

P-8A Program                                                   Other Program Issues
                                                               The P-8A airframe has been designated a
                                                               commercial item. As a result, the contractor is not
Technology Maturity
                                                               required to submit cost or pricing data to the
The P-8A entered production in August 2010 with                government. Program officials stated that this
mature technologies. The current critical                      designation has not affected recent contract
technology, the hydrocarbon sensor, has been                   negotiations, and the program negotiated a 10
tested in ground-based applications and program                percent lower unit cost on its second production
officials indicated that flight testing will occur in fiscal   contract. The commercial item designation has also
year 2012. The program also noted that it has                  generated concerns in the past from the Defense
begun flight testing the ESM digital receiver and the          Contract Management Agency (DCMA) about the
sonobuoy launcher, two technologies that were                  government’s access to production facilities and its
previously identified as being critical but are no             ability to conduct surveillance. However, DCMA has
longer designated as such based on their use in                started reporting on aircraft quality at the Boeing
other platforms.                                               commercial facility in Washington responsible for
                                                               the wing, tail, aircraft assembly, and engine
The P-8A program has been authorized to                        installation.
incorporate a set of capabilities initially planned as a
separate increment into the baseline program                   The operational assessment of the P-8A conducted
primarily because these improvements will entail the           prior to production start found that the system
integration of mature technologies into the aircraft.          demonstrated the expected level of maturity, but it
                                                               also identified a number of shortfalls, including
Design Maturity                                                sonobuoy and weapons deployment. The Director,
The program entered production with a stable                   Operational Test and Evaluation, noted that some of
design; however, system development efforts are                these shortfalls degraded mission performance,
continuing concurrently with production, putting the           and, if not addressed, may pose a risk to the
program at increased risk of late and costly design            program successfully completing initial operational
changes. The number of design drawings has                     test and evaluation. The Navy and DCMA have also
increased slightly since August 2010 as a result of            identified the execution of testing as a risk, which
deficiencies discovered during testing. Program                program officials stated has delayed the start of
officials stated that they are still determining how to        initial operational test and evaluation from April to
incorporate changes identified during                          June 2012. The program is focused on maintaining
developmental testing into the initial production              flight test execution rates while it pursues
aircraft, noting that the strategy will depend upon            opportunities to reduce this schedule pressure.
the availability of funding.
                                                               Program Office Comments
Production Maturity                                            In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
The manufacturing processes for the P-8A have                  Navy stated that the program continues to execute
been proven. The program demonstrated its                      its test plan in preparation for the start of initial
airframe manufacturing processes on a commercial               operational test and evaluation. Testing has been an
line prior to entering into production. The                    identified risk as a result of inefficiencies in
manufacturing readiness levels associated with the             execution; however, extensive corrective actions
P-8A’s main subsystems indicate their processes                have been implemented to manage this risk.
are also generally mature, although the program                Program officials said that although the corrective
has encountered quality issues with the on-board               actions have improved the efficiency of test
inert gas generator system and auxiliary fuel tanks,           execution, the program has adjusted the start of
which are currently being addressed by the prime               initial operational test and evaluation from April
contractor. Delivery of the first production aircraft is       2012 to June 2012, which is still within the
scheduled for February 2012.                                   program’s approved baseline. In addition, the
                                                               program is working to capture, correct, and test
                                                               deficiencies identified in testing and manage this
                                                               risk. The Navy also provided technical comments,
                                                               which were incorporated as appropriate.

                                       Page 118                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                Common Name: Reaper

                             Reaper Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)
The Air Force’s MQ-9 Reaper is a multirole,
medium-to-high-altitude endurance unmanned
aircraft system capable of flying at higher speeds
and higher altitudes than its predecessor, the MQ-1
Predator A. The Reaper is designed to provide a
ground-attack capability to find, fix, track, target,
engage, and assess small ground mobile or fixed
targets. Each system consists of four aircraft, a
ground control station, and a satellite
communications suite. We assessed the increment I
block 5 configuration and made observations on
block 1.
                                                               Source: U.S. Air Force.



   Concept                System development                                                                      Production

       Program       Development                       Block 5          Required assets           GAO     Block 5 low-rate    Block 5 full-rate
         start           start                      design review          available             review       decision           decision
        (1/02)          (2/04)                          (1/11)              (12/11)              (1/12)        (7/13)             (3/14)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: General Atomics                                                                    As of        Latest           Percent
 Aeronautical Systems, Inc.                                                                         02/2008       08/2011           change
 Program office: Wright-Patterson AFB,         Research and development cost                         $420.1        $920.3             119.1
 OH                                            Procurement cost                                    $2,111.5     $10,848.3             413.8
 Funding needed to complete:                   Total program cost                                  $2,637.1     $11,918.7             352.0
  R&D: $420.5 million                          Program unit cost                                    $25.115       $29.871              18.9
  Procurement: $7,962.6 million                Total quantities                                         105           399             280.0
  Total funding: $8,473.5 million              Acquisition cycle time (months)                           79            94              19.0
  Procurement quantity: 240



The block 1 Reaper is in production, but the                                     Attainment of Product Knowledge
block 5 production decision was delayed 2 years
to July 2013 to allow time for the program to fully                 As of January 2012
integrate and test upgrades, such as system                         Resources and requirements match
power increases, modernized crew stations, and                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
improvements to the primary data link. Although                       environment
the Reaper’s critical technologies are mature and                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                      environment
all design drawings have been released, the
                                                                    ● Complete preliminary design review
block 5 is still at risk for design changes until its
upgrades are integrated and tested. According to                    Product design is stable
program officials, operational testing for block 5                  ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
was also delayed 1 year to November 2013. This                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
testing will include an evaluation of the block 1’s
                                                                    Manufacturing processes are mature
hunter and net-ready capabilities, which were not
included in its initial operational testing in 2008.                ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

The user is reevaluating its requirements and                       ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
strategy for managing future Reaper upgrades;                       ● Test a production-representative prototype
the increment II program was to begin in fiscal
year 2012.                                                              Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                        Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                         Page 119                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: Reaper

Reaper Program                                             Other Program Issues
                                                           Since inception, the MQ-9 program has been
                                                           challenged to meet the warfighter’s changing
Technology Maturity
                                                           needs. Quantities have increased dramatically and
The Reaper’s block 1 and block 5 critical                  performance requirements continue to change. The
technologies are considered mature. An Air Force           program is currently incorporating several urgent
technology readiness assessment conducted in               operational requirements from the warfighter and
2010 identified two critical technologies for the          officials expect other capabilities, such as the
block 5 configuration—a high-capacity                      advanced signals intelligence payload sensor, to be
starter/generator and modified engine—and                  added to the program. Although block 1 initial
assessed them as mature. In addition to these              operational testing was done in 2008, problems with
critical technologies, there are other key                 the radar and network prevented testers from
enhancements for block 5 that are expected to              evaluating the system’s hunter and net-ready
improve the capability of the system, including            capabilities—two of its three key requirements.
upgrades to the radar, data link, sensor, landing          Testing of these capabilities was deferred until
gear, and ground control stations. These upgrades          block 5 operational testing, which is currently
must still be successfully integrated and tested on        planned for November 2013, a 1-year delay. The
the MQ-9 system. The production decision for the           program also received approval to reduce or defer
block 5 has been delayed by 2 years to July 2013           12 required block 5 capabilities related to aircraft
because of concerns about software delays and the          endurance, radar performance, and reliability,
amount of developmental and integration testing            among other areas. According to the program office,
remaining.                                                 none of these changes present a high operational
                                                           risk for the system and some of them may be
Design Maturity                                            addressed in future upgrade efforts. According to
According to the program office, the Reaper design         program officials, the user is currently reevaluating
is stable and all the expected design drawings have        its requirements and strategy for managing future
been released; however, the block 5 is still at risk for   Reaper upgrades. The increment II program, which
design changes until its upgrades are integrated           included Small Diameter Bomb integration,
and tested on the MQ-9 system. The transition from         automatic take-off and landing, deicing, and national
block 1 to block 5 increased the number of design          airspace certification, was to begin in fiscal year
drawings by about 20 percent, which program                2012. According to program officials, the user is
officials attribute primarily to the relocation of radio   evaluating the feasibility of satisfying these
antennas to the wingtips and a redesign of the             requirements by upgrading the current
avionics bay. The program office conducted a               configuration.
critical design review for block 5 in January 2011.
Program officials expect to close all the action           Program Office Comments
items, the most significant of which involves testing      In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
the aircraft’s airworthiness with the relocated            Force stated that the program office is working to
antennas, by early 2012.                                   accelerate the low-rate initial production decision
                                                           from July 2013 to June 2012. In order to accomplish
Production Maturity                                        this, the contractor has accelerated the first block 5
The block 1 Reaper is in production and the                aircraft retrofit by 6 months and is focusing on
production processes for block 5 are approaching           developing software for the block 5 to allow for
the level of maturity recommended for low-rate             earlier verification. This accelerated date is also
initial production. The Air Force has contracted for       based upon tailoring of acquisition documents and
117 block 1 aircraft, about 30 percent of its total        schedule assumptions identified in the draft
requirement, and has conducted several                     acquisition strategy that will require approval from
manufacturing reviews of the contractor’s facilities       the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The Air
and determined that the production capacity is             Force further stated that the increment II program is
sufficient to meet the expected demand.                    currently unfunded. The Air Force is reevaluating
                                                           requirements and its strategy for future program
                                                           upgrades.


                                    Page 120                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                           Common Name: SSC

                                  Ship to Shore Connector (SSC)
The Navy’s SSC is an air-cushioned landing craft
intended to transport personnel, weapon systems,
equipment, and cargo from amphibious vessels to
shore. SSC is the replacement for the Landing
Craft, Air Cushion (LCAC), which is approaching the
end of its service life. The SSC will deploy in Navy
well deck amphibious ships, such as the LPD 17
class, and will be used for assault and nonassault
operations. It is expected to operate independent of
tides, water depth, underwater obstacles, ice, mud,
or beach conditions.

                                                          Source: U.S. Navy.



   Concept                                     System development                             Production

       Program    Preliminary      GAO     Development       Contract award—            Lead-ship        Lead-ship           Initial
         start   design review    review       start          detail design/         fabrication start    delivery         capability
        (5/09)       (6/11)       (1/12)      (2/12)           construction            (2Q/FY14)           (8/16)            (8/20)
                                                                (2Q/FY12)



 Program Essentials                        Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: TBD                                                                                     Latest          Percent
 Program office: Washington, DC                                                                As of      08/2011          change
 Funding needed to complete:               Research and development cost                         NA        $442.7              NA
  R&D: TBD                                 Procurement cost                                      NA      $3,947.6              NA
  Procurement: TBD                         Total program cost                                    NA      $4,412.9              NA
  Total funding: TBD                       Program unit cost                                     NA       $60.451              NA
  Procurement quantity: 72                 Total quantities                                      NA            73              NA
                                           Acquisition cycle time (months)                       NA           135              NA




The SSC program has attained the level of                                  Attainment of Product Knowledge
knowledge about technology and design
requirements needed to support the award of a              Projected as of January 2012
detail design and construction contract for the            Resources and requirements match
lead craft, which is planned for the second quarter        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
of fiscal year 2012. A 2010 technology readiness              environment
assessment found the program’s one critical                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                              environment
technology to be mature, and designated two
                                                           ● Complete preliminary design review
technologies as watch items until a contractor
selects the actual technologies to be used.                 Product design is stable
According to the program office, the SSC is the            ● Complete three-dimensional product model
first Navy-led ship design in 15 years and the              ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
Navy plans to provide two-dimensional extracted
                                                            Manufacturing processes are mature
drawings from the design model to the contractor,
who will then complete the design to prepare for           ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

production. The SSC is also being designed for             ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
affordability and the Navy has identified several          ● Test a production-representative prototype
performance tradeoffs to lower costs.
                                                                Knowledge attained                            Information not available
                                                                Knowledge not attained                        Not applicable


                                   Page 121                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: SSC

SSC Program                                              Other Program Issues
                                                         According to the program office, the SSC is the first
                                                         Navy-led ship design in 15 years. The goal of the
Technology Maturity
                                                         Navy-led design was to improve the capacity and
The SSC program expects to award a detail design         maintainability of the SSC compared to the legacy
and construction contract in the second quarter of       LCAC, while reducing costs. To assist with this goal,
fiscal year 2012 with its one critical technology—the    the Navy conducted an analysis of the LCAC which
fire suppression system—mature. A 2010                   focused on reducing total ownership cost while
technology readiness assessment by the Navy              maintaining certain essential capabilities such as
found this technology to be mature because the           speed. Through this analysis, the Navy identified
system had been extensively tested in an LCAC            several performance trades. For example, the Navy
engine module modified to have similar                   identified a change to the cargo deck width which
characteristics to the SSC. In addition, the canisters   will allow for the use of nondevelopmental engines;
that are part of the fire suppression system are         this change is expected to lower life-cycle costs.
commercially used and will not be modified for use       The SSC is also expected to have greater lift, a
on the SSC. Based on the technology readiness            lower fuel consumption rate, and less expected
assessment, the Navy also decided that several           maintenance than the LCAC.
other technologies should not be considered critical.
For example, program officials stated the                The Navy is conducting a full and open competition
assessment did not identify the composite shaft as       for the SSC detail design and construction contract.
a critical technology because the composite              The Navy plans to award a fixed-price incentive
material is already used on a Littoral Combat Ship.      contract for the detail design and construction of the
Other items, such as the gas turbine and the             lead craft, which is expected to be delivered by
command, control, communications, computer, and          August 2016. The lead craft will be for testing and
navigation system were not designated critical           training and the contract is expected to have options
because mature systems that meet all SSC                 for eight additional SSCs.
requirements are available. However, these two
technologies will remain on a watch list until the       Program Office Comments
contractor selects the actual technologies to be
                                                         In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
used. According to program officials, there is a
                                                         Navy stated that the SSC is a technically mature,
reasonable chance that the contractor could
                                                         low risk program poised for successful entry into
propose new technologies that require additional
                                                         system development, program initiation, and detail
development if they have the potential to reduce
                                                         design and lead craft construction contract award.
cost.
                                                         The Navy also provided technical comments, which
                                                         were incorporated as appropriate.
Design Maturity
The Navy plans to stabilize the SSC design before
the start of construction. According to program
officials, after award of the detail design and
construction contract, the Navy will provide two-
dimensional extracted drawings from the design
model to the contractor who will then complete the
design of the craft for production. The Navy’s
request for proposal for detail design and
construction requires the contractor to hold a
production readiness review before the start of
construction to demonstrate design maturity.
Specifically, the contractor must demonstrate that
both the functional design is 100 percent complete
and the detailed production work packages are at
least 95 percent complete before production start.



                                   Page 122                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                              Common Name: SDB II

                               Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) Increment II
The Air Force’s Small Diameter Bomb (SDB)
Increment II is planned to provide attack capability
against mobile targets in adverse weather from
standoff range. It combines radar, infrared, and
semiactive laser sensors in a multi-mode seeker to
acquire, track, and engage targets. It uses airborne
and ground data links to update target locations as
well as GPS and an inertial navigation system to
ensure accuracy. SDB II will be integrated with
F-15E, Navy and Marine Corps’ Joint Strike Fighter
(JSF), and other aircraft, such as the F-22A.

                                                              Source: © 2009 Raytheon Company.



   Concept                   System development                             Production

       Program          Development     Design        GAO               Low-rate               Initial        Initial                Full-rate
         start              start       review       review             decision             capability     capability               decision
        (5/06)             (7/10)        (1/11)      (1/12)              (8/13)               F-15E            JSF                   (10/18)
                                                                                               (7/16)         (6/18)



 Program Essentials                          Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon                                                                         As of        Latest          Percent
 Program office: Eglin AFB, FL                                                                    10/2010       08/2011          change
 Funding needed to complete:                 Research and development cost                       $1,644.8      $1,642.5              -0.1
  R&D: $850.1 million                        Procurement cost                                    $3,057.3      $3,053.1              -0.1
  Procurement: $3,053.1 million              Total program cost                                  $4,702.1      $4,695.6              -0.1
  Total funding: $3,903.2 million            Program unit cost                                      $.274         $.274              -0.1
  Procurement quantity: 17,000               Total quantities                                      17,163        17,163               0.0
                                             Acquisition cycle time (months)                           72            72               0.0




The SDB II program completed its critical design                              Attainment of Product Knowledge
review in January 2011 with a stable design, but
without fully maturing its critical technologies or            As of January 2012
demonstrating that the design can perform as                   Resources and requirements match
expected. As a result, the risk of design changes              ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
remains. A postdesign review identified several                   environment
risks related to weapon effectiveness verification,            ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                  environment
target classification, seeker reliability, and JSF
                                                               ● Complete preliminary design review
integration. The program office is working to
address each of these risks and plans to begin                 Product design is stable
evaluating the reliability and performance of the              ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
weapon through flight testing in March 2012.                   ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
However, the program’s biggest risk—integration
                                                               Manufacturing processes are mature
with the JSF—will not be resolved until after
production begins. The program faces a shortfall               ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

in funding, and program officials are considering              ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
modifying the fixed-price incentive contract or the            ● Test a production-representative prototype
current scope of work to align with the funding
profile.                                                            Knowledge attained                              Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                          Not applicable


                                      Page 123                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: SDB II

SDB II Program                                             full-rate production in 2018. SDB II integration on
                                                           the JSF is planned to begin in fiscal year 2015 and
                                                           operational testing is planned for 2017.
Technology Maturity
The SDB II program entered system development in           Production Maturity
July 2010 with all four of its critical technologies—      The SDB II program plans to take several steps to
the target classifier, multimode seeker, net-ready         demonstrate the maturity of its manufacturing
data link, and payload (warhead/fuze)—nearing              processes prior to beginning production. The
maturity. Although the program has completed its           program will demonstrate its critical manufacturing
critical design review, it is just beginning to further    processes on a pilot production line and
demonstrate these technologies through subsystem           demonstrate that the system will work as intended
testing. According to the program office, subsystem        in a reliable manner by testing a fully configured
testing is progressing well. Prototype testing is          production-representative prototype.
scheduled to begin in February 2012 and will
demonstrate the weapon’s ability to interface with         Other Program Issues
the required aircraft and the seeker’s performance.
                                                           The SDB II program office is managing a $53 million
                                                           funding shortfall in fiscal year 2011, which could
Design Maturity
                                                           have programmatic and contractual implications.
The SDB II design is currently stable, but it has not      The SDB II contract is an incrementally funded,
been demonstrated using a prototype to show that it        fixed-price incentive contract, and program officials
will perform as expected. The risk of design               stated that the funding shortfall could mean that the
changes will remain until the design shows it can          next part of the work will have to be deferred or the
meet requirements and other risks are addressed.           contract will need to be renegotiated or terminated.
The program completed its critical design review in
January 2011 with 97 percent of its design drawings        Program Office Comments
releasable. A postdesign review identified several
                                                           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air
risks related to weapon effectiveness verification,
                                                           Force and Navy provided technical comments,
target classification, seeker reliability, and
                                                           which were incorporated as appropriate.
integration with the JSF. The program office is
working to address each of these risks. In addition,
the SDB II is scheduled to begin flight testing on the
F-15E in March 2012; according to the program
office, these tests will help to increase its confidence
in the reliability and performance of the weapon.
The SDB II program plans to conduct 11 free-flight
test events prior to obtaining approval to begin
production, which is currently scheduled to occur in
August 2013.

According to the postdesign review and program
officials, the top risk for the SDB II program is
integration of the weapon with the JSF. The SDB II,
which is carried in the JSF’s internal weapons bay,
was designed to operate in the environment
specified in JSF design documents. However, the
weapons bay environment has not been validated
through testing. If the JSF cannot meet its design
specifications, then the SDB II program may not
meet its requirements for weapon effectiveness or
availability on that aircraft; it might also have to
consider design changes. This issue will not be
resolved prior to the SDB II’s planned August 2013
production decision and could affect the program’s

                                    Page 124                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                               Common Name: SBIRS High

                   Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High Program
The Air Force’s SBIRS High satellite system is
being developed to replace the Defense Support
Program and perform a range of missile warning,
missile defense, technical intelligence, and
battlespace awareness missions. SBIRS High will
consist of four satellites in geosynchronous earth
orbit (GEO), two sensors on host satellites in highly
elliptical orbit (HEO), two replenishment satellites
and sensors, and fixed and mobile ground stations.
We assessed the space segment and made
observations about the ground segment.

                                                                 Source: © 2007 Lockheed Martin Corporation.




   Concept              System development        Production

       Program     Development            Design review/          First sensor      Second sensor        First        GAO       Second
         start         start            production decision         delivery           delivery   satellite delivery review satellite delivery
        (2/95)       (10/96)                  (8/01)                 (8/04)             (9/05)          (3/11)       (1/12)       (6/12)



 Program Essentials                         Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin                                                                      As of          Latest             Percent
 Program office: El Segundo, CA                                                                       10/1996         07/2011             change
 Funding needed to complete:                Research and development cost                           $4,376.3        $11,586.3               164.7
  R&D: $2,131.3 million                     Procurement cost                                             $0.0        $6,429.3                 NA
  Procurement: $3,599.4 million             Total program cost                                       $4,596.5       $18,266.7               297.4
  Total funding: $5,743.9 million           Program unit cost                                       $919.301       $3,044.443               231.2
  Procurement quantity: 2                   Total quantities                                                5               6                20.0
                                            Acquisition cycle time (months)                                86            TBD                  NA
                                            The 1996 data show no procurement cost as the Air Force planned to use research and development
                                            funds to buy all five satellites. The cost of the two HEO replenishment sensors is not included in either
                                            column.


The first SBIRS satellite was launched in May                                     Attainment of Product Knowledge
2011—roughly 9 years later than planned—
however, it lacks some key capabilities. The                       As of January 2012
satellite was launched without a fully developed                   Resources and requirements match
ground system or the flight software needed to                     ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
automatically recover if an unforeseen failure                       environment
occurs. According to program officials, the ground                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
system will not be able to meet all of its
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
operational requirements until at least 2018. The
satellite recovery software will be uploaded to the                Product design is stable
satellite on-orbit once it is complete, expected in                ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
August 2012. The first satellite has begun on-orbit                ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
testing, but its planned operational certification in
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
late 2012 will likely be delayed to early 2013. The
program expects the cost of the third and fourth                   ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

satellites to grow significantly. A new program                    ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
baseline, which includes revised cost estimates                    ● Test a production-representative prototype
and satellite and ground system delivery
milestones, awaits DOD approval.                                       Knowledge attained                                   Information not available
                                                                       Knowledge not attained                               Not applicable


                                     Page 125                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: SBIRS High

SBIRS High Program                                       unforeseen failure. The program intends to upload
                                                         this software to the first satellite on-orbit after it
                                                         completes development. According to the Defense
Technology, Design, and Production Maturity              Contract Management Agency, on-orbit check out
According to the SBIRS program office, the               activities, for example, system-level testing and
system’s critical technologies are mature, its design    calibration, are currently 6 weeks behind schedule,
is stable, and its manufacturing processes have          which could delay the operational certification of the
been proven; however, the program continues to           first satellite, planned for late 2012.
experience quality problems that have required
rework on the first two satellites. Functional testing   According to the SBIRS program, production of the
on the first satellite in 2009 revealed solder           third and fourth satellites may experience significant
fractures on some hardware components and                cost growth and schedule delays due to
testing on the second satellite in 2011 has              development challenges, test failures, and technical
uncovered anomalies and erratic performance on           issues. The Air Force is projecting a cost overrun of
similar components. In both cases, some rework           $438 million and 1-year delay for these two
has been required to the satellites; however,            satellites. The program plans to award a sole-
program officials do not expect that these issues will   source contract to the same prime contractor to
result in significant cost growth or schedule delays.    build the fifth and sixth satellites. The SBIRS
System-level testing on the second satellite has         program has revised its acquisition program
begun and the program expects it to be delivered in      baseline, which will include revised cost estimates
June 2012. Its launch date has yet to be                 and new satellite and ground system delivery
determined.                                              milestones, but DOD has yet to approve it.

The SBIRS program plans to make slight changes           Program Office Comments
to the design of its two HEO replenishment sensors,      In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
addressing parts obsolescence and electromagnetic        program office stated that the first satellite launched
interference issues that affected the operation of its   with all the software needed to support vehicle
first two sensors. Replenishment sensors are             health and safety. Sensors on the first satellite are
scheduled for delivery and integration onto host         collecting higher-quality data than expected. The
satellites in fiscal years 2012 and 2015.                satellite is moving to its operational location, and
                                                         officials expect trial operations to last from
Other Program Issues                                     November 2012 to January 2013. The follow-on
The first GEO satellite, and likely second, will be      production contract is delivering flight hardware, but
launched and operating on-orbit before the program       is experiencing cost and schedule pressure due to
can fully leverage the satellites’ capabilities. The     parts obsolescence and technical issues. Officials
SBIRS program opted to launch the first GEO              attribute this to an 8-year production gap between
satellite in May 2011 before the ground system,          the first two satellites and the third and fourth. The
which processes data from the satellite’s infrared       revised acquisition program baseline is final as of
sensors, was fully developed. According to the           January 2012. The acquisition strategy for the fifth
program office, it did so to provide some capability     and sixth satellites is pending, and the program is
to users sooner. Ground system development has           seeking approval to release requests for proposals
proved more difficult than anticipated and officials     and contract awards. The program office also
say the system will not be able to fully meet its        provided technical comments, which were
operational requirements until at least 2018. In the     incorporated as appropriate.
meantime, ground system capabilities will be fielded
incrementally. According to the Defense Contract
Management Agency, the flight software
development effort is still experiencing challenges
and delays. The first satellite was launched without
all of the planned flight software functionality,
including, for example, a capability that allows the
satellite to automatically recover without ground
intervention from a "fault-mode" in the event of an

                                   Page 126                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                            Common Name: Space Fence

                                                       Space Fence
The Air Force’s Space Fence will be a new system
of large ground-based radars that replaces the Air
Force’s aging Space Surveillance System. It will use
higher radio frequencies to detect and track smaller
Earth-orbiting objects. The system will consist of
two geographically dispersed radars to help ensure
effective space surveillance coverage for low
inclinations. The system’s enhanced capabilities are
expected to significantly increase the number of
orbiting objects detected and tracked.



                                                                   Source: U.S. Air Force.



   Concept                                    System development                                    Production

       Program     GAO    Preliminary    Development         Final                Critical  Production                                  Initial
         start    review design review       start       development/          design review decision                                 capability
        (3/09)    (1/12)     (2/12)         (6/12)        production               (5/13)     (6/13)                                    (9/17)
                                                           contract
                                                            (7/12)


 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Lockheed Martin,                                                                                     Latest           Percent
 Raytheon                                                                                               As of          08/2011           change
 Program office: Hanscom AFB, MA               Research and development cost                              NA              TBD                NA
 Funding needed to complete:                   Procurement cost                                           NA              TBD                NA
  R&D: TBD                                     Total program cost                                         NA              TBD                NA
  Procurement: TBD                             Program unit cost                                          NA              TBD                NA
  Total funding: TBD                           Total quantities                                           NA                 2               NA
  Procurement quantity: 1                      Acquisition cycle time (months)                            NA               103               NA
                                               In May 2010, the program office estimated the Space Fence’s total cost would be over $3 billion; an
                                               updated estimate has not been provided.



The Space Fence program office expects to have                                       Attainment of Product Knowledge
gained key knowledge about its technology and
requirements before it enters system                                 Projected as of January 2012
development in June 2012. Its four critical                          Resources and requirements match
technologies are nearing maturity and it will hold a                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
preliminary design review prior to development                         environment
start. The current technology development phase                      ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                       environment
involves multiple contractors and competitive
                                                                     ● Complete preliminary design review
prototyping demonstrations. The program plans
to award a single contract for system                                Product design is stable
development and production in July 2012. The                         ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
first Space Fence radar site is scheduled to                         ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
provide an initial operational capability by the end
                                                                     Manufacturing processes are mature
of fiscal year 2017—2 years later than originally
planned—and the Air Force will be required to                        ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

support the existing surveillance system longer                      ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
than anticipated. A new data-processing system                       ● Test a production-representative prototype
is also being developed by a separate program to
accommodate the increased volume of data from                             Knowledge attained                                Information not available
                                                                          Knowledge not attained                            Not applicable
Space Fence.
                                         Page 127                                GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: Space Fence

Space Fence Program                                       activities through the planned May 2013 critical
                                                          design review, with options for all subsequent
                                                          efforts, including radar production.
Technology Maturity
The Space Fence program expects its four critical         The first Space Fence radar site is scheduled to
technologies to be nearing maturity before it enters      provide initial operational capability by the end of
system development in June 2012. The                      fiscal year 2017—2 years later than planned—
technologies include a software algorithm for             because current program funding levels do not
estimating orbits and several radar technologies—a        support an earlier date. As a result, the Air Force
high-efficiency power amplifier; low-cost distributed     will be required to support the existing surveillance
receiver; and scalable digital beam former that           system longer than anticipated. It is currently
allows antennas to work in concert to create              assessing ways to keep the system in operation
sufficient power to conduct the space surveillance        until the Space Fence is ready. The second Space
and tracking mission. Mature backup technologies          Fence site will provide a full operational capability
that have potentially higher acquisition or operating     by 2020.
costs also exist, but program officials do not believe
they will be needed. According to the program, the        A new data-processing capability is being
Space Fence will be one of the largest phased array       developed by a separate program to accommodate
radars ever built, and the key risks are related to its   the increased volume of data from Space Fence.
size and the integration of technology components         According to the Space Fence program office, this
into a viable system at an affordable cost. According     program is currently being restructured and should
to the program office, its technology development         be fielded in time to support Space Fence.
efforts, which involve multiple contractors, will allow
the program to thoroughly examine the contractors’        Program Office Comments
designs and their associated costs, while reducing        In commenting on this draft, the program office
technical risk and improving confidence in the            noted that it generally concurred with our
producibility of the key technologies and                 assessment. The program noted that a technology
components.                                               readiness assessment is ongoing and the Space
                                                          Fence preliminary design review is on schedule to
Other Program Issues                                      be completed by the end of February 2012. The
The Space Fence program maintained competition            program also provided technical comments, which
through technology development and plans to               were incorporated as appropriate.
competitively award a single contract for system
development and production. In June 2009, the Air
Force competitively awarded three $30 million firm
fixed-price contracts to begin technology
development, one of which was subsequently
terminated after a reduction in program funding.
After a full and open competition, the two other
contractors were each awarded another contract in
January 2011, for a maximum of $214 million, to
continue technology development. The Space
Fence program plans to conduct a full and open
competition and award a single contract for system
development and production in July 2012.
According to the program office, the release of the
request for proposal for this contract has been
delayed from December 2011 to April 2012 because
DOD now requires a program review to be held
before its release. However, the program office
believes the contract can still be awarded on
schedule. The program office plans to award a firm
fixed-price contract for system development

                                   Page 128                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                               Common Name: SM-6

         Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) Extended Range Active Missile (ERAM)
The Navy’s Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) is a surface-
to-air missile launched from Aegis ships. It is
designed to provide ship self-defense, fleet
defense, and theater air defense against aircraft,
ships, and missiles at various altitudes over land
and sea. It will provide an over-the-horizon
engagement capability and improved capabilities at
extended ranges by combining legacy Standard
Missile and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air
Missile (AMRAAM) technology. We assessed SM-6
block 1. Follow-on blocks will be developed to meet
future threats.
                                                            Source: Raytheon Missile Systems.




   Concept             System development                   Production

                   Program                Design         Low-rate                    GAO           Initial  Full-rate               Last
                     start                review         decision                   review       capability decision            procurement
                    (6/04)                (3/06)          (8/09)                    (1/12)         (4/12)    (5/12)                (2019)




 Program Essentials                         Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Raytheon Missile                                                                As of        Latest          Percent
 Systems                                                                                         07/2004       12/2010          change
 Program office: Arlington, VA              Research and development cost                       $1,073.8        $973.5              -9.3
 Funding needed to complete:                Procurement cost                                    $4,626.4      $5,323.2             15.1
  R&D: $7.6 million                         Total program cost                                  $5,700.2      $6,296.7             10.5
  Procurement: $4,808.9 million             Program unit cost                                     $4.750        $5.247             10.5
  Total funding: $4,816.6 million           Total quantities                                       1,200         1,200               0.0
  Procurement quantity: 1,111               Acquisition cycle time (months)                           75            94             25.3




The SM-6’s highly concurrent testing and                                     Attainment of Product Knowledge
production strategy puts the program at increased
risk of cost growth and schedule delays. The                  As of January 2012
program has 89 missiles under contract, but it has            Resources and requirements match
not yet demonstrated that its manufacturing                   ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
processes are in control or the missile is reliable,            environment
suitable, and effective in its operational                    ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                environment
environment. The program has experienced
                                                              ● Complete preliminary design review
numerous developmental and operational test
failures. Program officials stated that root causes           Product design is stable
have been identified and corrective actions will be           ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
addressed during follow-on testing. The program               ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
plans to request approval to enter full-rate
                                                              Manufacturing processes are mature
production in May 2012; and the Under Secretary
of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and                    ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

Logistics will have to determine whether                      ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
additional flight testing is needed, or if the current        ● Test a production-representative prototype
risks on the program will continue to be carried
forward into full-rate production.                                  Knowledge attained                             Information not available
                                                                    Knowledge not attained                         Not applicable


                                      Page 129                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: SM-6

SM-6 Program                                             testing and obtain approval prior to awarding
                                                         additional contracts. The Under Secretary
                                                         subsequently approved the award of two additional
Technology and Design Maturity                           low-rate production contracts before this testing was
According to the program office, all SM-6 critical       complete. After numerous developmental test
technologies are mature and its design is stable;        failures, the program carried a significant level of
however, the program is still at risk of late design     risk into operational testing where the high failure
changes because of repeated test failures. The           rate continued. The program plans to seek approval
program obtained approval to conduct limited             for full-rate production in May 2012 and to award a
developmental testing because the risk of                full-rate production contract with options through
integrating the legacy AMRAAM missile seeker with        fiscal year 2016. The Under Secretary will have to
the Standard Missile was perceived to be low.            determine whether additional flight testing is
However, over half of the SM-6’s at-sea                  needed, or if the risks on the program will continue
developmental flight tests experienced anomalies or      to be carried forward into full-rate production.
resulted in failure with multiple issues attributed to   Further, multiple SM-6 capabilities will not be tested
these legacy components. A May 2011 operational          until full-rate production is well underway. According
test readiness assessment concluded that the             to officials, the program plans to have 387 of 1,200
program faced a high risk of failure in operational      missiles under contract by the end of fiscal year
testing and recommended additional developmental         2014. This is before the SM-6 will be tested with the
testing. The program proceeded with operational          Naval Integrated Fire Control–Counter Air System,
testing in June 2011 and the missile failed 5 of 12      which enables its over-the-horizon capabilities.
tests. According to program officials, all failures
have had root causes discovered, and corrective          Program Office Comments
actions will be verified during follow-on operational    In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
testing, which is scheduled to occur after the           Navy disagreed with our assertions that the
program’s planned May 2012 full-rate production          program is at risk of design changes because of
decision. The Navy’s operational test organization       repeated test failures; that the program has not
plans to issue its assessment of operational testing     demonstrated that its critical processes are in
by April 2012 to support the full-rate production        control and that the missile meets performance
review.                                                  requirements; and that multiple capabilities will not
                                                         be tested until full-rate production is well underway.
Production Maturity                                      According to program officials, the missile design is
The SM-6 program has proven out its production           mature and stable, and all flight failures and
processes, but has not yet demonstrated that its         anomalies are understood with corrective actions in
critical processes are in control or that the missiles   place or in progress. The program office also
being produced perform reliably. According to the        provided technical comments, which were
program, the sample size needed for measuring            incorporated as appropriate.
process control will not be achieved until 2014.
                                                         GAO Response
Other Program Issues                                     According to program officials, the SM-6 design is
The SM-6’s highly concurrent testing and production      stable; however, the program has not yet
strategy puts the program at increased risk of cost      demonstrated that the system is reliable, suitable,
growth and schedule delays. The program has              and effective in its operational environment. Our
made a significant investment before demonstrating       reviews of DOD weapon systems confirm that
that the design meets performance requirements           production costs are minimized when a fully
and that the missile is reliable, suitable, and          integrated, capable prototype is demonstrated to
effective in its operational environment. In 2009, the   show that the system will work as intended in a
program obtained approval from the Under                 reliable manner.
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology
and Logistics to begin low-rate production of up to
19 missiles before completing developmental
testing. To minimize risks, the Under Secretary
required the program to complete developmental

                                   Page 130                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                          Common Name: VTUAV

    Vertical Take-off and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV)
The Navy’s VTUAV is intended to provide real-time
imagery and data in support of intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. A
VTUAV system is composed of up to three air
vehicles with associated sensors, two ground
control stations, one recovery system, and spares
and support equipment. The air vehicle is launched
and recovered vertically, and operates from ships
and land. The VTUAV is being designed as a
modular, reconfigurable system that supports
various operations, including surface,
antisubmarine, and mine warfare.
                                                           Source: Northrop Grumman.




   Concept             System development                   Production

                   Program                  Design      Low-rate                GAO       Operational Initial              Full-rate
                     start                  review      decision               review        test    capability            decision
                    (1/00)                  (11/05)      (5/07)                (1/12)       (3/12)     (5/12)              (10/12)



 Program Essentials                         Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: Northrop Grumman                                                            As of         Latest            Percent
 Program office: Patuxent River, MD                                                          12/2006        09/2011            change
 Funding needed to complete:                Research and development cost                     $598.0         $682.1               14.1
  R&D: $16.2 million                        Procurement cost                                $1,682.6       $1,933.2               14.9
  Procurement: $1,582.8 million             Total program cost                              $2,615.4       $2,615.4                 0.0
  Total funding: $1,599.0 million           Program unit cost                               $14.776        $14.945                  1.1
  Procurement quantity: 145                 Total quantities                                     177            175                -1.1
                                            Acquisition cycle time (months)                      104            148               42.3




The VTUAV program continues to experience                                  Attainment of Product Knowledge
delays as a result of issues identified during
testing. According to the program, it has made              As of January 2012
hardware and software changes to address the                Resources and requirements match
issues and improve the reliability, maintainability,        ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
and availability of the air vehicle and ground                 environment
control station. The program has delayed the                ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                               environment
planned start of operational testing to March 2012
                                                            ● Complete preliminary design review
and could have difficulty demonstrating certain
aspects of the system’s effectiveness and                   Product design is stable
suitability. DOD’s independent test organization            ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
and military commanders have stated that the                ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
system provides a valuable capability, but the test
                                                            Manufacturing processes are mature
organization has expressed concerns about data
link reliability and launch delays. The program is          ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

planning several aircraft upgrades, including a             ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
multimode maritime radar, forward-firing weapon,            ● Test a production-representative prototype
and larger airframe to improve endurance,
payload, and carrying capacity.                                  Knowledge attained                               Information not available
                                                                 Knowledge not attained                           Not applicable


                                      Page 131                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: VTUAV

VTUAV Program                                               failure modes to assist the operator in
                                                            troubleshooting issues. According to the program
                                                            office, the VTUAV’s deployments aboard the USS
Technology Maturity                                         Halyburton and in Afghanistan have demonstrated
The VTUAV program did not identify any critical             the military utility of the system, and the operational
technologies. According to the program office, it           commands in Afghanistan have requested doubling
relies on common, mature technologies.                      the VTUAV capability there. The Navy recently lost
                                                            a VTUAV aircraft in Libya due to enemy actions.
Design Maturity
The VTUAV design appears stable and the program             The VTUAV program is planning several upgrades
has released all its expected drawings; however, the        of the system. For example, the program is planning
program has made a number of software and                   to acquire a multimode maritime radar and forward-
hardware changes to correct issues identified in            firing weapon for installation on the aircraft using a
developmental testing. According to the program,            rapid acquisition process that enables the
the main issues in testing were related to the              capabilities to be delivered to the warfighter quickly.
reliability, maintainability, and availability of the air   Both capabilities will be acquired as a part of the
vehicle and the control station. Several critical           current program and will undergo a formal quick-
components experienced unanticipated failures, but          reaction assessment in fiscal year 2013 prior to their
were corrected with software or hardware                    planned deployment. In addition, the program plans
improvements. As a result of the problems                   to buy 28 upgraded aircraft with a larger airframe to
highlighted during developmental testing, the               improve endurance, payload, and future carrying
VTUAV program delayed the planned start of                  capacity.
operational test and evaluation until March 2012.
The program plans to reach initial operational              Program Office Comments
capability in May 2012 and enter full-rate production       The program office concurred with this assessment.
in October 2012—more than 2 years later than
planned.

Production Maturity
The VTUAV program’s production processes have
been demonstrated, but we could not assess
whether its critical processes are in control. The
program does not collect data on statistical process
controls or assess process capabilities using
manufacturing readiness levels. As of fiscal year
2011, the program planned to convert eight Army
aircraft bought under the Future Combat Systems
into Navy VTUAV aircraft.

Other Program Issues
The VTUAV program may have difficulty
demonstrating its effectiveness and suitability in
operational testing. An early fielding report by the
Director, Operational Test and Evaluation,
concluded that the VTUAV can be a valuable
intelligence-gathering asset, but forces should not
depend on it to provide time-sensitive support to
ground forces because of the fragile nature of the
data link and frequent launch delays. According to
the report, a primary reason for these delays is
multiple ground control station configurations, which
makes it difficult for the program to identify and
correct the root causes of problems and replicate

                                     Page 132                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                              Common Name: WIN-T Increment 2

              Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 2
WIN-T is the Army’s high-speed and high-capacity                                                WIN-T Increment 2 – Initial Networking On The Move
backbone communications network. WIN-T
connects Army units with higher levels of command
and provides the Army’s tactical portion of the
Global Information Grid. WIN-T was restructured                                    WIN-T Inc 2 Tactical
                                                                                  Communications    s Node

following a March 2007 Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost
                                                                                  Communic
                                                                                  Communic
                                                                                   omm i a   ations
                                                                                              tions   No ode
                                                                                                         od
                                                                                                          de
                                                                                                          d
                                                                                     (While
                                                                                      While
                                                                                      W    e Mobile)
                                                                                        hile Moobi
                                                                                               obile)
                                                                                               obb
                                                                                                 bile
                                                                                                 bile)
                                                                                                 biile)
                                                                                                   iee))                                                           WIN-T
                                                                                                                                                                       T Inc
                                                                                                                                                                   WIN-T
                                                                                                                                                                   WI -T Inc 2 Point
                                                                                                                                                                               P
                                                                                                                                                                               Poin
                                                                                                                                                                               Po  nt of
                                                                                                                                                                                 oin  of
                                                                                                                                                                       Presence
                                                                                                                                                                       P       ce



breach of the critical threshold, and will be fielded in                                                   Ruggedized

four increments. The second increment will provide                                                       MPM-1000 Modem

                                                                                                                                WIN-T
                                                                                                                                WIN
                                                                                                                                WIN  -T Inc
                                                                                                                                  IN-T
                                                                                                                                  IN
                                                                                                                                   N-T  Inc 2 Tactical
                                                                                                                                        In    Tac
                                                                                                                                              Tact
                                                                                                                                              Ta
                                                                                                                                              T ct
                                                                                                                                                 ctic
                                                                                                                                                   iica
                                                                                                                                                     ca
                                                                                                                                                     cal
                                                                                                                                                     c all
                                                                                                                                                       a


the Army with an initial networking on-the-move                         Highband Networking Waveform                           Communications
                                                                                                                               Communic
                                                                                                                               Communic
                                                                                                                               Commun
                                                                                                                               Commu  u ationso s Node
                                                                                                                                            tions  Node
                                                                                                                                                      o
                                                                                                                                                      od
                                                                              Line of Sight Radio                                (While
                                                                                                                                 (Whh Stationary)
                                                                                                                                  Whi
                                                                                                                                  While   Stationar
                                                                                                                                           tationary)
                                                                                                                                            ationar
                                                                                                                                            a  onar
                                                                                                                                                nary)y)




capability.
                                                                                                                On-The-Move
                                                                                 Highband                        SATCOM
                                                                                Networking                        Antenna                                                  WIN-T
                                                                                                                                                                            I T Inc
                                                                                                                                                                           WIN
                                                                                                                                                                           WIN   I c 2 Soldier
                                                                                                                                                                                 In     Sold
                                                                                                                                                                                        S ld
                                                                                                                                                                                           dier
                                                                                                                                                                                             ierr
                                                                                                                                                                                             ie
                                                                               Waveform Line                                                  Initial Network              Network
                                                                                                                                                                             two Extension
                                                                                                                                                                           Netwo    Extensio
                                                                                                                                                                                       tensio
                                                                                                                                                                                          sio
                                                                                                                                                                                          s ion
                                                                                                                                                                                            io
                                                                                                                                                                                             on
                                                                                  of Sight                                                      Operations
                                                                                 Antenna



                                                                 Source: U.S. Army.




    Concept              System development                          Production

              Program/development        Design                Low-rate                                         GAO                 Operational                  Full-rate                       Initial
                      start              review                decision                                        review                 testing                    decision                      capability
                     (6/07)              (2/08)                 (2/10)                                         (1/12)                  (5/12)                     (9/12)                         (5/13)




 Program Essentials                               Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: General Dynamics C4                                                                                           As of                            Latest                            Percent
 Systems, Inc.                                                                                                                 10/2007                           12/2010                            change
 Program office: Aberdeen Proving                 Research and development cost                                                 $238.6                            $279.2                               17.0
 Ground, MD                                       Procurement cost                                                            $3,469.8                          $5,773.5                               66.4
 Funding needed to complete:                      Total program cost                                                          $3,708.4                          $6,052.7                               63.2
  R&D: $29.3 million                              Program unit cost                                                             $1.959                            $2.127                                8.6
  Procurement: $4,803.2 million                   Total quantities                                                               1,893                             2,846                               50.3
  Total funding: $4,832.5 million                 Acquisition cycle time (months)                                                   50                                71                               42.0
  Procurement quantity: 2,390



The WIN-T Increment 2 entered production in                                              Attainment of Product Knowledge
February 2010 with mature critical technologies, a
stable design, and production processes that had                   As of January 2012
been demonstrated, but were not in control. The                    Resources and requirements match
program’s assessment of its manufacturing                          ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
readiness level indicates that it has not yet                        environment
demonstrated the capability recommended by                         ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                     environment
DOD guidance to begin full-rate production, which
                                                                   ● Complete preliminary design review
is currently planned for September 2012. The
program has been working to address                                Product design is stable
performance and reliability shortfalls revealed in a               ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
March 2009 limited user test. According to the                     ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
program office, production qualification testing
                                                                   Manufacturing processes are mature
has been successful, and the program believes it
will demonstrate the required performance and                      ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

reliability during initial operational testing, which is           ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
scheduled to begin in May 2012.                                    ● Test a production-representative prototype


                                                                       Knowledge attained                                                                            Information not available
                                                                       Knowledge not attained                                                                        Not applicable


                                         Page 133                                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: WIN-T Increment 2

WIN-T Increment 2 Program                                 degraded because the program’s concept of
                                                          operations, organizational structure, and manning
                                                          were not adequate to operate and troubleshoot the
Technology Maturity                                       network. Further, the test concluded that the WIN-T
All 15 WIN-T Increment 2 critical technologies were       Increment 2 did not meet its operational reliability
mature by its February 2010 production decision. In       requirements because three critical components
November 2009, the Director, Defense Research             demonstrated poor reliability. After this test, DOD’s
and Engineering, concurred with an independent            Director, Operational Test and Evaluation,
review team’s assessment of the program, noting           recommended that the Army improve the
that tests conducted by the Army show that each of        performance of the Increment 2 waveforms, provide
WIN-T Increment 2’s critical technologies have been       greater training to soldiers, refine its tactics and
demonstrated in a realistic environment.                  manning levels for Increment 2, and aggressively
                                                          pursue a reliability growth program for WIN-T
Design Maturity                                           Increment 2 components to ensure its success in
According to the WIN-T program, it has integrated         initial operational testing. According to the program
and tested its key technologies and subsystems,           office, production qualification testing conducted by
which demonstrates that the system’s design is            the contractor in early 2011 indicated that the
capable of working as intended. The program office        system is on target to meet its minimum
does not track the other metric we use to measure         performance requirements. Reliability issues were
design maturity—the number of releasable                  identified during that testing, but the program
drawings—because WIN-T is primarily an                    believes that each of the program’s configuration
information technology integration effort. Instead,       items is meeting its reliability growth target, and that
design performance is measured through a series of        the program will demonstrate required performance
component, subsystem, configuration item, and             and reliability during upcoming initial operational
network-level test events designed to demonstrate         testing.
performance at increasing levels of system
integration, and design stability is measured             Program Office Comments
through problem-tracking report trends.                   In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
                                                          Army provided technical comments, which were
Production Maturity                                       incorporated as appropriate.
The WIN-T program began production in February
2010 with manufacturing processes that had been
demonstrated on a pilot production line, but were
not in control. The program’s assessment of its
manufacturing readiness level does not indicate that
its production processes are in statistical control or
that the program has demonstrated that the
capability recommended by DOD guidance is in
place to begin full-rate production, which is currently
planned for September 2012. According to the
WIN-T program, it uses commercially available
products and does not have any critical
manufacturing processes.

Other Program Issues
According to the WIN-T program, it has addressed
the deficiencies identified in its March 2009 limited
user test and is prepared to begin initial operational
testing on schedule in May 2012. During the limited
user test, WIN-T Increment 2 failed to demonstrate
the ability to support mobile operations as well as
the required capabilities in forested terrain. WIN-T
Increment 2 operational effectiveness was

                                   Page 134                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                              Common Name: WIN-T Increment 3

             Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 3
WIN-T is the Army’s high-speed and high-capacity                                                                         WIN-T Increment 3
backbone communications network. WIN-T                                                                             Full Networking On The Move

connects Army units with higher levels of command
                                                                                                                                            Antenna
                                                                                                                          (High Band Radio Frequency Unit)
                                                                              2 ch & 4 ch
                                                                                JC4ISR
and provides the Army’s tactical portion of the                              Air & Ground


Global Information Grid. WIN-T was restructured                                                                         Ground Only
                                                                                                                         HRFU-MT
                                                                                                                                                         Air Only
                                                                                                                                                         HRFU-EK


following a March 2007 Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost
                                                                                                                Addition of
                                                                             Ground Only
                                                                                                               Airborne Tier


breach of the critical threshold, and will be fielded in                                                                                                                                       WIN-T
                                                                                                                                                                                               WIN-
                                                                                                                                                                                               WIN
                                                                                                                                                                                               W IN-
                                                                                                                                                                                                 IN-T
                                                                                                                                                                                                 IIN
                                                                                                                                                                                                   N-T
                                                                                                                                                                                                   N   T Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                     --T  nc 3 Soldier
                                                                                                                                                                                                         In
                                                                                                                                                                                                          nc   Solldierr
                                                                                                                                                                                                               So
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sold
                                                                                                                                                                                                               S


four increments. The third increment will provide the
                                                                                                                                                                                               Network
                                                                                                                                                                                               Net
                                                                                                                                                                                               Netwo
                                                                                                                                                                                               Netw
                                                                                                                                                                                               N et
                                                                                                                                                                                                 e
                                                                                                                                                                                                 etwo
                                                                                                                                                                                                   twork
                                                                                                                                                                                                   two
                                                                                                                                                                                                    work
                                                                                                                                                                                                    w  ork
                                                                                                                                                                                                       orkk Extension
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Extensio
                                                                                                                                                                                                             xtensio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    on
                                                                                                                                 BCT                                      DIV
                                                                            Single chassis JC4ISR
                                                                             Radio that provides


Army a full networking on-the-move capability.
                                                                             4x network capacity               • Adds an airborne communications node as a third tier of tactical
                                                                               as the LOS Inc 2                  networked communications.
                                                                                                               • Provides a fully mobile and flexible network to a dispersed force of
                                                                                     radio                       noncontiguous terrain.
                                                                                                               • Aerial tier increases throughput and reduces reliance on SATCOM.        Full Network Operations




                                                                             WIN-T
                                                                              WIN-
                                                                              WIN
                                                                              W IN
                                                                                 N-T
                                                                                 N  T Inc
                                                                                   -T  nc 3 Tactical
                                                                                      In
                                                                                      Inc     Tact
                                                                                              T ct
                                                                                                 ctical
                                                                                                    ic
                                                                                                    ica
                                                                                                    ic
                                                                                                     cal
                                                                                                       all
                                                                            Communications
                                                                            Communi
                                                                            Communic
                                                                            Co
                                                                            Comm
                                                                            Com
                                                                            C om
                                                                              ommun
                                                                              o
                                                                              ommu
                                                                              ommunic
                                                                                mmunic
                                                                                mmmuni
                                                                                  munic
                                                                                  m unic
                                                                                    unnii a   ons Node
                                                                                           ations   Nodede
                                                                                                        d  e
                                                                                 (While
                                                                                 (While
                                                                                    hile
                                                                                      ilee Mobile)
                                                                                           Mobi
                                                                                             obil
                                                                                             obile)
                                                                                               bile)
                                                                                               bile
                                                                                                ile
                                                                                                il
                                                                                                 lle)
                                                                                                   e)
                                                                                                   e)                                                                      Fully automated network operations - no pause in operations




                                                              Source: U.S. Army.




   Concept              System development                                                                                                  Production

             Program/development                            GAO          Design                                               Low-rate                                                  Full-rate                            Initial
                     start                                 review        review                                               decision                                                  decision                           capability
                    (7/03)                                 (1/12)        (8/14)                                                (4/15)                                                    (9/18)                              (4/19)




 Program Essentials                            Program Performance (fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions)
 Prime contractor: General Dynamics C4                                                                                         As of                                         Latest                                         Percent
 Systems, Inc.                                                                                                               05/2009                                        12/2010                                         change
 Program office: Aberdeen Proving              Research and development cost                                                $2,687.4                                       $2,222.3                                           -17.3
 Ground, MD                                    Procurement cost                                                            $13,680.3                                      $11,649.1                                           -14.8
 Funding needed to complete:                   Total program cost                                                          $16,367.7                                      $13,871.4                                           -15.3
  R&D: $890.3 million                          Program unit cost                                                              $4.701                                         $4.325                                             -8.0
  Procurement: $11,649.1 million               Total quantities                                                                3,482                                          3,207                                             -7.9
  Total funding: $12,539.4 million             Acquisition cycle time (months)                                                   165                                            187                                            13.3
  Procurement quantity: 3,168



The WIN-T Increment 3 program will not                                             Attainment of Product Knowledge
demonstrate the maturity of all its critical
technologies until its planned April 2015                       As of January 2012
production decision. Three of the program’s 20                  Resources and requirements match
critical technologies are currently mature and 15               ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a relevant
are nearing maturity. Of the two remaining                          environment
technologies, one was rated as nearing maturity                 ● Demonstrate all critical technologies in a realistic
                                                                    environment
by an independent review team; but in 2009, the
                                                                ● Complete preliminary design review
Director, Defense Research and Engineering,
concluded that the technology’s ambiguous                       Product design is stable
requirements made it difficult to state whether it              ● Release at least 90 percent of design drawings
had been adequately demonstrated. The Army                      ● Test a system-level integrated prototype
has since revisited its requirements. According to
                                                                Manufacturing processes are mature
the Army, the other technology—a cryptographic
device—will be demonstrated by its system-level                 ● Demonstrate critical processes are in control

design review. The WIN-T Increment 3 schedule                   ● Demonstrate critical processes on a pilot production line
is likely to be negatively affected by an almost 40             ● Test a production-representative prototype
percent reduction in planned funding for fiscal
year 2012.                                                           Knowledge attained                                                                                                     Information not available
                                                                     Knowledge not attained                                                                                                 Not applicable


                                         Page 135                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: WIN-T Increment 3

WIN-T Increment 3 Program                                  version 3.X technology should be established to
                                                           DDR&E’s satisfaction before it is transitioned into
                                                           WIN-T Increment 3. HAIPE 3.1 is currently being
Technology Maturity                                        used in the WIN-T Increment 2 network. According
The WIN-T Increment 3 program will not                     to the Army, this version has introduced some
demonstrate the maturity of all of its critical            network efficiencies, but the HAIPE version 4.1 will
technologies in a realistic environment until its          be needed to support the full set of network
planned April 2015 production decision. An April           efficiencies required by WIN-T Increment 3. The
2009 review of the Army’s technology readiness             maturity of these critical technologies will be
assessment for WIN-T Increment 3 by the Director,          demonstrated in a realistic environment by the April
Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E),                  2015 production decision. The Army will clarify the
concluded that, of the program’s 20 critical               user’s requirements for these technologies by its
technologies, 3 were mature, 15 were nearing               system-level design review, currently scheduled for
maturity, and 2—the Quality of Service Edge Device         October 2012.
(QED) and High Assurance Internet Protocol
Encryptor (HAIPE) version 3.X—could not be                 Other Program Issues
formally rated.                                            The WIN-T Increment 3 schedule is likely to be
                                                           negatively affected by reductions in its planned
The Army has rated the QED as nearing maturity;            funding for fiscal year 2012. The joint explanatory
however, DDR&E concluded that this technology              statement accompanying the Department of
had ambiguous requirements that made it difficult to       Defense Appropriations Act, 2012, recommended
state whether it had been adequately demonstrated.         $183 million for WIN-T Increment 3 research,
DDR&E noted that while the Army had                        development, test, and evaluation funding, a 40
demonstrated that the QED technology met                   percent reduction from the budget request of $298
requirements under most conditions, in one                 million. The Army explained that as a result of this
stressing scenario, it did not. DDR&E                      reduction, the program has modified the program
representatives have stated in the past that it is         strategy to reflect a two-phased approach. The
unlikely that any network can meet this requirement        initial aerial tier capability is planned for the low-rate
in all environments. Since the QED technology was          production decision in fiscal year 2015 and the full
shown to be robust and capable of meeting its              aerial tier capability supporting full networking
requirement in most scenarios, DDR&E                       on-the-move is planned for the full-rate production
recommended that the Army clarify the user’s               decision in fiscal year 2018.
requirements for this technology by its system-level
design review, currently scheduled for August 2014.        Program Office Comments
According to a program official, the Army’s Training
                                                           In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the
and Doctrine Command has revisited the user
                                                           Army provided technical comments, which were
requirements; however, it will still wait to reassess
                                                           incorporated as appropriate.
the QED’s maturity until the system-level design
review. According to the Army, the QED technology
has been demonstrated in recent WIN-T
Increment 2 production qualification tests. It is
anticipated that the technology used in WIN-T
Increment 2 can be applied to WIN-T Increment 3
with little or no changes to the existing functionality.

HAIPE version 3.X was not available to be
assessed at the time of DDR&E’s review; however,
a National Security Agency (NSA) official has since
said it is mature. HAIPE is a device that encrypts
and encapsulates Internet protocol packets so that
they can be securely transported over a network of
a different security classification. DDR&E has
notified the Army that the maturity of the HAIPE

                                    Page 136                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                                   Common Name: AEHF

                  Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) Satellite
The Air Force’s AEHF satellite system will replenish
the existing Milstar system with higher-capacity,
survivable, jam-resistant, worldwide, secure
communication capabilities for strategic and tactical
warfighters. The program includes six satellites and
a mission control segment. Terminals used to
transmit and receive communications are acquired
separately by each military service. AEHF is an
international program that includes Canada, the
United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.


                                                         Source: © 2009 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All rights reserved.

Current Status

The first AEHF satellite was launched in August 2010 and was expected to reach its planned orbit in about 3
months, but a propulsion system anomaly delayed the satellite’s arrival on orbit. The Air Force used other
propulsion systems designed to control and reposition the satellite to raise it into its intended orbit, a process
it estimated would take 10 to 12 months. However, the program office, in conjunction with the user
community, decided to extend the satellite’s ascent to save fuel for on-orbit operations and the satellite
reached its planned orbit in late October 2011. The satellite will go through about a 100-day checkout and
testing period before it becomes available for operations.

The launch of the second and third AEHF satellites was delayed after the problems with the first satellite
were discovered, but they have now been cleared for flight. The program office and prime contractor
determined the propulsion system anomaly on the first satellite was most likely caused by debris in the
system’s oxidizer fuel line introduced during the manufacturing process. The second and third satellites,
which were already built, were tested to confirm there were no similar blockages. The estimated launch
dates for these satellites are April 2012 and the fall of 2013 respectively. The fourth satellite is under contract
and is scheduled to be available for launch in 2017. The Air Force plans on procuring the fifth and sixth
satellites using a block-buy acquisition strategy intended to produce savings that would be reinvested in
research and development for follow-on systems. The Air Force requested congressional approval for the
block buy in its fiscal year 2012 budget request. The last two satellites are tentatively expected to be
available for launch in 2018 and 2019. In 2009, DOD announced the cancellation of the Transformational
Satellite Communications System—the planned follow-on to AEHF. In June 2011, DOD commissioned an
internal study to address follow-on programs for AEHF and the Wideband Global SATCOM communications
programs, which will lead to a subsequent analysis of alternatives.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $14,082.8 million
Research and development: $7,759.4 million
Procurement: $6,323.4 million
Quantity: 6

Next Major Program Event: Launch of second AEHF satellite, April 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air Force noted that satellite
command and control was transitioned from Milstar to the AEHF mission control segment in June 2011. The
Air Force also provided technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.



                                    Page 137                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: B-2 DMS

         B-2 Defensive Management System (DMS) Modernization
The Air Force’s B-2 DMS modernization program is
expected to upgrade the aircraft’s 1980s-era analog
defensive management system to a digital
capability. The program is intended to improve the
frequency coverage and sensitivity of the electronic
warfare suite, update pilot displays, and enhance
in-flight replanning capabilities for avoiding
unanticipated air defense threats. It is also expected
to improve the reliability and maintainability of the
DMS system and, as a result, the B-2’s readiness
rate.


                                                         Source: U.S. Air Force.

Current Status

The B-2 DMS program was approved to enter technology development in August 2011. On the basis of an
analysis of alternatives, the Air Force elected to fully modernize the B-2 DMS using a single-step rather than
an incremental acquisition approach to deliver the intended capability. Using a single-step acquisition
strategy can increase risk on a program because it can add complexity to design and software efforts. The
B-2 DMS program is also implementing a rapid acquisition initiative, which it believes can reduce its
acquisition cycle from 10 to 7 years and lower its cost by over $500 million. The initiative includes:
(1) conducting early software prototyping; (2) reducing the time required for flight testing by utilizing a flying
test bed for risk reduction, improving test-range access, and expediting test data analysis; and (3) improving
installation times by using antennas that conform to the B-2 design. The program’s current funding plan and
schedule do not reflect the anticipated benefits of the initiative. According to the B-2 program office, it
expects DOD to assess the program’s progress in achieving the initiative’s objectives before the start of
system development, and will adjust the program’s cost and schedule targets accordingly.

The B-2 DMS program office has identified five critical technologies, three of which are mature or nearing
maturity. The program expects the two other technologies—the low-observable antennas for the B-2 leading
edges and associated receivers—to be nearing maturity by the start of system development. The program
does not plan to develop prototypes of the full B-2 DMS, but instead plans to prototype the antenna
subsystems, which it believes presents a key technical risk. The program also identified the stringent
nuclear hardening requirements of the B-2 design as a technical risk.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $1,979.9 million
Research and development: $1,259.1 million
Procurement: $720.8 million
Quantity: 20

Next Major Program Event: System development start, fourth quarter fiscal year 2013

Program Office Comments: The program was provided a draft of this assessment and had no comments.




                                    Page 138                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                        Common Name: B-2 EHF SATCOM Increment 2

          B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 2
The Air Force’s B-2 EHF SATCOM is a satellite
communication system designed to upgrade the
aircraft’s ultra-high-frequency system to ensure
secure communication. The system has three
increments. Each one is expected to be a major
defense acquisition program. Increment 2 is
designed to provide connectivity by adding low-
observable antennas and radomes to the aircraft. It
is also intended to include separate, nonintegrated
Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals
(FAB-T) and related hardware integral to the EHF
SATCOM capability.

                                                       Source: U.S. Air Force.
Current Status

The B-2 EHF Increment 2 program is in technology development, but some work on the program has
stopped. The program began a component advanced development effort in March 2008 that includes
systems engineering, requirements analysis, technology maturation, and preliminary design activities. In
August 2011, program officials told us that work related to FAB-T was halted because that program was
experiencing FAB-T delivery delays. In October 2011, work on the active electronically scanned array
(AESA) antenna system also ceased because of funding uncertainties for fiscal year 2012. While work on
the antenna system resumed in December 2011, this was the latest in a series of delays for the Increment 2
program. The program’s schedule before work stopped showed system development beginning in April
2013—3 years later than first planned—and production starting after the U.S. Strategic Command’s
identified need date of 2017.

If and when the B-2 EHF Increment 2 program fully resumes, FAB-T will continue to pose a significant risk.
Program officials told us that a terminal, like FAB-T, is significant to the Increment 2 program because it
handles the aircraft’s communication with EHF satellites, analogous to how a phone or cable modem
handles communication with the internet. The Air Force and the Increment 2 program office are looking at
ways to mitigate the risk. Program officials told us the Air Force began exploring a potential alternate source
for FAB-T in 2011, and the Increment 2 program office was investigating a different approach to secure
communication that would not involve the EHF frequency or FAB-T.

In addition to FAB-T, antenna technology maturation is a program risk. The AESA antenna system the
program is developing has several critical technologies that are still immature. The program does have a
plan to mature these technologies prior to beginning system development in April 2013, but it does not have
a backup antenna technology option should AESA not mature as expected.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $2,367.6 million
Research and development: $1,641.2 million
Procurement: $726.4 million
Quantity: 20

Next Major Program Event: System development start, April 2013

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the B-2 program office provided
technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                   Page 139                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: BMDS: SM-3 Block IIB

                      BMDS: Aegis BMD Standard Missile-3 Block IIB
MDA’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)
system is a sea- and land-based system being
developed to defend against missiles of all ranges.
It includes a radar, command and control systems,
and Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) missiles. We
reviewed the SM-3 Block IIB, which is planned to
provide U.S. homeland defense through early
intercept capability against some long-range
ballistic missiles and regional defense against
intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The SM-3
Block IIB is planned to be fielded in the 2020 time
frame as part of the European Phased Adaptive
Approach.                                             Source: Missile Defense Agency.


Current Status

The SM-3 Block IIB program entered technology development in July 2011 and awarded three contracts to
conduct trade studies, define missile configurations, and produce development plans. One contractor will be
selected for system development in 2013. The SM-3 Block IIB program is developing advance seeker and
other technologies that cut across the SM-3’s variants through a technology risk-reduction program.

According to a tentative schedule, the SM-3 Block IIB program plans to enter system development prior to
holding a preliminary design review, raising the possibility of cost and schedule growth. The program is
conducting a series of reviews to receive engineering insight into each contractor’s design. While these
reviews will provide important knowledge, we have reported that before starting system development,
programs should hold key engineering reviews, culminating in the preliminary design review, to ensure that
the proposed design can meet defined, feasible requirements within cost, schedule, and other system
constraints. Beyond the crosscutting technologies the program is developing, it is taking steps to develop
technology maturation plans that will include demonstrating technologies in a relevant environment using a
representative model or prototype before the SM-3 Block IIB enters system development. The three
contractors’ plans are expected to outline the level of investment required to demonstrate this degree of
technology maturity by 2014. Program officials have not yet defined the specific critical technologies for the
SM-3 Block IIB, which could hamper these efforts. Unlike most major defense acquisition programs, MDA
programs are not required to demonstrate technologies in a relevant environment prior to system
development, so decision makers will have to hold the program accountable for ensuring the technologies
mature as intended.

Estimated Total Program Cost (fiscal years 2012 to 2016, research and development): $1,673.0 million

Next Major Program Event: System development start, fiscal year 2014

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, MDA noted the SM-3 Block IIB’s
primary mission is early intercept of long-range ballistic missiles. One system development contract will be
competitively awarded in fiscal year 2014. MDA has identified key missile technologies and made
investments to reduce development risks. Prior to system development, there will be a government-only
system requirements review. MDA also provided technical comments, which were incorporated as
appropriate.




                                   Page 140                         GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                   Common Name: CRH

                                Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH)
The Air Force’s Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH)
program, formerly called HH-60 Recapitalization, is
an effort to replace aging HH-60G Pave Hawk
helicopters. The CRH’s primary mission is to
recover personnel from hostile or denied territory; it
will also conduct humanitarian, civil search and
rescue, disaster relief, and noncombatant
evacuation missions. The program is the second
effort to replace the HH-60G. The first, the Combat
Search and Rescue Replacement Vehicle
(CSAR-X), was cancelled because of cost concerns
in 2009.
                                                         Source: U.S. Air Force.


Current Status

The CRH program expects to receive its materiel development decision by February 2012. The Air Force
expects that the CRH will be an existing production helicopter with modifications that utilize existing mature
technologies or subsystems requiring limited integration. As a result, the program’s acquisition strategy calls
for it to bypass technology development and enter the acquisition process at system development. The
Secretary of the Air Force endorsed the program’s acquisition approach in April 2011, but requested that the
program refine its fiscal year 2013 cost and schedule estimates before moving forward. The program office
made these refinements through market research and requests for information from industry. The program
plans to issue a request for proposal and award a contract in 2013. According to the program office, the
CRH will undergo DOD’s new pre–system development review to determine whether the program’s plans
are executable, affordable, and reflect sound business practices before a request for proposal is issued.

In order to address a critical shortfall in HH-60G aircraft, the Air Force has also initiated an Operational Loss
Replacement (OLR) program, which will modify Army UH-60Ms to provide additional HH-60 aircraft to meet
current fleet size requirements. These HH-60 aircraft are expected to remain in operation until the CRHs are
fully deployed. CRHs are expected to begin being deployed on or before 2018.

Estimated Total Program Cost (fiscal years 2012 to 2016): $2,128.3 million
Quantity: 112

Next Major Program Event: Materiel development decision, February 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Air Force generally
concurred with our assessment, but stressed the fact that the CRH and OLR programs are two separate
acquisition efforts. The OLR is designed to maintain the capability of the current HH-60 fleet, while the CRH
is designed to provide improved capability in the future. The Air Force also provided technical comments,
which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                   Page 141                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: CIRCM

                         Common Infrared Countermeasure (CIRCM)
The Army’s CIRCM, the next generation of the
Advanced Threat Infrared Countermeasures
(ATIRCM), will be used with the Common Missile
Warning System (CMWS) and a countermeasure
dispenser capable of employing expendables, such
as flares and chaff, to defend aircraft from infrared-
guided missiles. The CIRCM program will develop a
laser-based countermeasure system for rotary-
wing, tilt-rotor, and small fixed-wing aircraft across
DOD. CIRCM is one of three subprograms that
make up the ATIRCM/CMWS major defense
acquisition program.
                                                         Source: U.S. Army.


Current Status

The CIRCM program entered technology development in January 2012 after earlier prototyping efforts did
not produce a system mature enough to enter system development. The CIRCM subprogram began in 2009
when the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics supported the Army’s
decision to restructure the ATIRCM/CMWS program. At that time, the Under Secretary determined that
aircraft survivability equipment development needed better coordination of service efforts, more emphasis
on competitive prototyping, and a greater focus on reducing ownership cost by increasing reliability. In June
2009, the Army received approval to award five contracts to provide prototype systems for testing. After
testing the five prototypes, the Army concluded that the systems were not mature enough for entry into
system development. The Army subsequently decided that the program should proceed with a technology
development phase that will include additional prototyping efforts to further mature CIRCM technologies.
The Army released the final request for proposal for the CIRCM technology development phase in February
2011 and proposals were due in May 2011. The Army awarded two contracts in January 2012. According to
the Army, there are several risks for CIRCM in technology development, including immature technologies
that could result in an inability to meet a key performance requirement and the weight of the system, which
may be too heavy for small aircraft. The Army has mitigation plans in place to address these issues and
plans to update its risk assessment once the winning contractors and their designs are known.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $3,448.9 million
Research and development: $754.8 million
Procurement: $2,694.1 million
Quantities: 1,076

Next Major Program Event: Technology development contract award, January 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Army provided technical
comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                   Page 142                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                Common Name: CVLSP

                      Common Vertical Lift Support Platform (CVLSP)
The Air Force’s Common Vertical Lift Support
Platform (CVLSP) is expected to replace the
current fleet of UH-1N helicopters with 93 vertical
lift aircraft that can provide improved speed, range,
and survivability. CVLSP will support a variety of
missions including nuclear security operations and
mass passenger transport in the National Capital
Region. Initial operational capability for the CVLSP
aircraft is planned for fiscal year 2015.




                                                        Source: U.S. Air Force.


Current Status

In May 2010, the CVLSP program received its materiel development decision and, in August 2011, the Air
Force approved the program’s acquisition strategy. The Air Force plans to use full and open competition to
identify, select, and procure an in-production, nondevelopmental, commercial- or government-off-the-shelf
aircraft. As a result, the program plans to bypass system development and enter the acquisition process at
production. Air Force market research found that multiple aircraft currently in production could meet CVLSP
requirements and industry has the capacity to produce the aircraft at the desired rates. Program officials
noted that because all of the candidate aircraft are in production and operational use, their associated
subsystems and critical technologies are considered mature. As a result, the Air Force expects that the
program’s total research and development cost will only be $33.5 million, primarily to support testing.

At the time the Air Force approved the CVLSP acquisition strategy, the program office was planning to issue
a draft request for proposal in September 2011 and a final one in January 2012, award a contract in
December 2012, and hold a low-rate initial production decision review in June 2013. However, the release of
the draft request for proposal has been delayed indefinitely as the Air Force reviews all of its programs and
budget in light of the fiscal constraints currently facing the entire federal government. According to program
officials, senior Air Force leadership will decide if and when to release the draft request for proposal. The
effect of the delay on the program’s plans depends on the eventual timing of the release and the direction
from Air Force leadership that accompanies it.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $3,626.3 million
Research and development: $33.5 million
Procurement: $3,561.1 million
Quantities: 93

Next Major Program Event: Release of the draft request for proposal, TBD

Program Office Comments: The program office concurred with this assessment.




                                   Page 143                            GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: DDG 51

                                               DDG 51 Destroyer
The DDG 51 destroyer is a multimission surface
ship designed to operate against air, surface, and
subsurface threats. After an approximate 4-year
production break, the Navy restarted Flight IIA
production and plans to buy 10 ships between fiscal
years 2010 and 2015. The Navy will begin buying a
new version—Flight III—in fiscal year 2016. Flight III
is expected to include the Air and Missile Defense
Radar (AMDR)—which is being developed under a
separate Navy program—and have an increased
focus on ballistic and cruise missile defense.

                                                         Source: U.S. Navy.

Current Status

In 2011, the Navy awarded contracts for three Flight IIA ships with an option for a fourth ship to restart
DDG 51 production. Construction of the first ship—DDG 113—began in July 2011. The production break
resulted in fewer industrial base issues than the Navy expected; however, the amount budgeted for the first
three restart ships is $1.8 billion (in constant fiscal year 2012 dollars) more than for the last three ships built.
According to the Navy, the ships will not have significant design changes, but will carry an upgraded Aegis
combat system, which is currently being developed. The upgrade is expected to enable limited
simultaneous, integrated ballistic and cruise missile defense and is the most complex Aegis upgrade ever
undertaken. Recent delays in the effort have increased the likelihood the program may still be resolving
software defects when it is installed on DDG 113. Further, test plans show that the Navy will certify the
upgrade is mission-ready without validating with simultaneous live-fire tests that it can perform its new
integrated air and missile defense mission.

The Navy is still determining which technologies will be included on Flight III. To date, the Navy has
identified AMDR as the only major technology upgrade for Flight III, and technical studies indicate that few of
the technologies developed for the DDG 1000 program are likely to be included on it. AMDR may add
significant design and construction risk to Flight III and limit future upgrades based on its size and power and
cooling requirements. Program officials stated that a decision has not been made about AMDR’s size, which
will affect the ship’s missile defense capabilities and how much its power and cooling capabilities need to be
increased. Further, the Navy has not determined the level of oversight that the Flight III program will have or
at which—if any—milestone the program will enter the DOD acquisition cycle.

Estimated Total Program Cost (fiscal years 2010 to 2016): $17,755.6 million
Research and development: $797.6 million
Procurement: $16,958.0 million
Quantity: 11

Next Major Program Event: AMDR system development start, October 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Navy stated that the last
three ships built were part of a multiyear procurement, while the DDG 113 was a sole-source procurement
and the next three ships were awarded through a limited competition, which may affect a comparison of their
costs. Further, these ships, unlike earlier ones, include ballistic missile defense capability. The Navy also
commented that the Aegis upgrade will be sufficiently mature to support DDG 113 shipbuilding milestones.
The Navy also provided technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.



                                    Page 144                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                  Common Name: EPS

                                   Enhanced Polar System (EPS)
The Air Force’s Enhanced Polar System will provide
next-generation protected extremely high frequency
(EHF) satellite communications in the polar region.
It will replace the current Interim Polar System and
serve as a polar adjunct to the Advanced EHF
system. EPS consists of two EHF payloads hosted
on classified satellites, a gateway to connect
modified Navy Multiband Terminals to other
communication systems, and a control and planning
segment.


                                                         Source: LinQuest Corporation.


Current Status

The EPS program’s entry into system development has been delayed by over 3 years, although the payload
has moved forward with development activities to keep it on track with the scheduled launch of its classified
host satellites. EPS was initiated in 2006 to fill the gap left by the cancellation of the Advanced Polar
System. In 2007, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics directed the
program to proceed to system development in order to synchronize the program’s payload schedule with the
host satellite production timeline. Payload development proceeded in 2008, but the program’s entry into
system development has been delayed. According to the program office, the latest delays have occurred
because funding constraints required the program to reduce the capabilities of the control and planning
segment and gateway and amend the EPS acquisition strategy. Once the revised acquisition strategy is
approved, the program plans to award a development contract for the control and planning segment that
would lead to a preliminary design review in the first quarter of fiscal year 2013 and a system development
decision at the end of fiscal year 2013.

There is a risk that the payload will be on orbit before the control and planning segment is available. The
payload, which consists of about 20 separate units such as processors and antennas, has been in
development for several years and all of its critical technologies are mature. As each payload unit is flight
qualified, they are delivered to the host for integration into the satellites, which are expected to be on-orbit in
fiscal years 2015 and 2017. Program officials acknowledged that it will be a challenge to develop and build
the control and planning segment, needed for the system to be fully functional, by the time the payloads
reach orbit.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $1,530.0 million
Research and development: $1,468.3 million
Procurement: $61.7 million
Quantity: 2 payloads

Next Major Program Event: System development decision for control and planning segment and gateway,
fourth quarter fiscal year 2013

Program Office Comments: The EPS program office provided technical comments, where were
incorporated as appropriate.




                                    Page 145                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: EFV

                            Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV)
The Marine Corps’ EFV was being developed to
transport troops from ships offshore to inland
locales at higher speeds and from longer distances
than the Assault Amphibious Vehicle 7A1 (AAV
7A1), which it was supposed to replace. It was to
have two variants—a troop carrier for 17 combat-
equipped Marines and 3 crew members and a
command vehicle to manage combat operations. In
January 2011, the Secretary of Defense announced
the cancellation of the EFV due to technology
problems, development delays, and cost increases.

                                                     Source: U.S. Marine Corps.


Current Status

The EFV program has been cancelled and an official reported that the EFV contract will end in September
2012. Shutdown activities, which will cost about $200 million, are ongoing and will include harvesting
technologies and conducting habitability, firepower, water speed, durability, and mine blast testing on EFV
vehicles.

Despite the EFV’s cancellation, the Marine Corps has determined that it still needs an amphibious assault
vehicle with greater capabilities than the legacy AAV 7A1 and is conducting an analysis of alternatives to
explore options for replacing that vehicle. In September 2011, DOD’s Office of Cost Assessment and
Program Evaluation issued guidance directing that this analysis include five options: the cancelled EFV
(about $18 million per unit), a new amphibious vehicle, a new land-mission focused vehicle which will need
to be transported from ship to the shore via another watercraft, upgrades to the legacy AAVs to address
identified gaps in the vehicle’s survivability, and upgrades to the legacy AAVs to address other capability
gaps such as water and land mobility, networking, and lethality. The Marine Corps also noted that the
analysis will consider relaxing the EFV’s requirements to make the new solution more affordable. For
example, the analysis assumes a reduction in the ship-to-shore launch distance from 25 nautical miles,
which was required of the EFV, to a range of 12 to 25 nautical miles. A shorter launch distance would place
Navy amphibious transport ships at greater risk to shore-based threats. The analysis of alternatives is
expected to be complete before the end of fiscal year 2012.

Estimated Total Program Cost (through fiscal year 2011): $3,704.9 million

Next Major Program Event: EFV contract expiration, September 2012

Program Office Comments: The Marine Corps was provided a draft of this assessment and did not offer
any comments.




                                  Page 146                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                        Common Name: F-22 Modernization

                                 F-22 Modernization Increment 3.2B
The Air Force’s F-22A Raptor is the only operational
fifth-generation air-to-air and air-to-ground
fighter/attack aircraft. This aircraft integrates stealth;
supercruise; and advanced avionics,
maneuverability, and weapons in one platform. The
Air Force established the F-22A modernization and
improvement program in 2003 to add enhanced air-
to-ground, information warfare, reconnaissance,
and other capabilities and improve the reliability and
maintainability of the aircraft. The Air Force is
upgrading the F-22A fleet in four increments.

                                                             Source: U.S. Air Force.

Current Status

The first F-22A modernization increment has been fielded. Operational testing for the second increment was
delayed between March and September 2011 because of the stand-down of the entire F-22 fleet after a fatal
crash, test range unavailability, and a technical issue relating to ground support equipment. Increment
3.2A—the third increment—began developing software for electronic protection, combat identification, and
Link 16 communication upgrades in November 2011, with fielding planned to begin in 2014. Program
officials reported in December 2011 that increment 3.2A was slightly ahead of its current schedule.

The fourth program increment, increment 3.2B, is expected to begin system development as a separate
major defense acquisition program in fiscal year 2013. This increment plans to field AIM-9X and AIM-120D
missiles and upgrade electronic protection, targeting capabilities, and communication capabilities by 2017.
The 3.2B increment will benefit from investments that have already been made in the modernization
program, including requirements and risk-reduction analyses and the development of hardware needed to
integrate new capabilities.

The Air Force identified three critical technologies for increment 3.2B. The two technologies that will be used
to integrate the AIM-9X missile with the aircraft are in the early stages of development and have only been
tested in a lab environment. The Air Force expects these technologies to be demonstrated in a relevant
environment by the start of system development. The third technology, which is needed to improve the
ability to locate ground targets, has already been demonstrated in a relevant environment.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $1,567.5 million
Research and development: $1,040.9 million
Procurement: $526.6 million
Quantity: 143
Note: The program cost is for increment 3.2B. The total cost estimate for all of F-22’s modernization
increments and improvements is $12.7 billion.

Next Major Program Event: System development start, December 2012

Program Office Comments: The Air Force provided technical comments, which were incorporated as
appropriate.




                                      Page 147                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: GCV

                                  Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV)
The Army’s Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) is the
cornerstone of its combat vehicle modernization
strategy. The first variant is intended to be the
service’s next infantry fighting vehicle, replacing a
portion of the current Bradley fleet. The Army wants
GCV to provide a full-spectrum capability to
perform offensive, defensive, stability, and support
operations; carry a 9-soldier squad; emphasize
force protection; and be available within 7 years of
beginning technology development.



                                                        Source: U.S. Army.


Current Status

In August 2011, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics approved the
GCV program’s entry into a 24-month technology development phase with the goals of reducing overall risk
and achieving an affordable, feasible, and operationally effective preliminary design. During technology
development, the Army plans to utilize a three-pronged approach that includes an updated analysis of
alternatives; an assessment of selected nondevelopmental vehicles, such as an upgraded Bradley vehicle;
and contractor efforts to build and demonstrate key subsystem prototypes. The Army awarded technology
development contracts to two contractor teams. However, work could not begin until a bid protest from a
third contractor team was resolved. The Army expects to have a preliminary design review within 18 months
of beginning technology development and, at that point, according to an Army official, should be ready to
determine whether GCV will be an entirely new vehicle or a modified existing vehicle.

In March 2011, we raised questions about the Army’s strategy for the GCV program related to how urgently
it is needed, the robustness of the analysis of alternatives, its cost and affordability, the plausibility of its
schedule, and the maturity of the technologies to be used. DOD addressed some of these areas when it
approved the program to enter technology development, but resolving others will be a major challenge for
the Army. The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics made approval of the
program contingent upon the Army ensuring a procurement unit cost of $13 million per vehicle and a 7-year
schedule for the first production vehicle to be delivered—both ambitious goals. The Army has encouraged
contractors to use mature technologies in their designs, which we have found to be a key determinant to
program success.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $31,589.9 million
Research and development: $6,789.7 million
Procurement: $24,800.2 million
Quantities: 30 (development), 1,874 (procurement)

Next Major Program Event: System development start, December 2013

Program Office Comments: The program office provided technical comments, which were incorporated as
appropriate.




                                   Page 148                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                 Common Name: JLTV

                               Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)
The Army and Marine Corps’ Joint Light Tactical
Vehicle is a family of vehicles being developed to
replace the High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled
Vehicle (HMMWV) for some missions. The JLTV is
expected to provide better protection for
passengers against current and future battlefield
threats, increased payload capacity, and improved
automotive performance over the up-armored
HMMWV; it must also be transportable. Two- and
four- seat variants are planned with multiple mission
configurations.

                                                        Source: Department of Defense.

Current Status

On the basis of the knowledge gained in technology development, the Army and Marine Corps made
changes to JLTV requirements. In October 2008, the Army awarded three technology development
contracts with the goal of defining requirements, reducing risks, and shortening the length of system
development. The contractors delivered prototype vehicles in May 2010 and testing was completed in June
2011. On the basis of the results, the Army and Marine Corps concluded that the original JLTV requirements
were not achievable and its cost would be too high. For example, the JLTV could not meet requirements for
both protection levels and transportability because of weight. The services have relaxed part of the
requirement to transport the vehicle by helicopter at high altitude and at certain temperatures, which will
permit a heavier vehicle to be transported. As a result of the requirements changes, the Army and Marine
Corps will shift some missions intended for JLTV to the HMMWV.

The JLTV program has also made changes to its acquisition strategy. The Army and Marine Corps had
planned to follow a traditional acquisition approach and enter system development in January 2012. The
services now plan to use a tailored approach that includes awarding contracts to up to three vendors to build
20 vehicles, extensively testing those vehicles, and proceeding to production. Contract award is scheduled
for June 2012. Contractors will have 12 months to build and deliver their prototypes, after which the
government will spend 15 months testing them. A decision to begin production is planned for second quarter
fiscal year 2015. DOD sees this approach as saving time and money; however, it forgoes the activities
typically done early in system development that demonstrate the product’s design is mature and will meet
requirements. As a result, the Army and Marine Corps are at risk of discovering that the vehicles are still not
mature late in the program.

Estimated Total Program Cost: TBD

Next Major Program Event: Contract award, June 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the program stated that as
requirements were adjusted to reflect more achievable and cost-effective thresholds, system development
could be shortened by leveraging existing designs. The program will focus the selection criteria on mature
designs that manage the risks. Robust testing will allow sufficient opportunities for contractors to address
issues throughout testing. The program also provided technical comments, which were incorporated as
appropriate.




                                   Page 149                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: JTRS GMR

         Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Ground Mobile Radios (GMR)
DOD’s JTRS program was developing software-
defined radios intended to interoperate with
selected radios and increase communications and
networking capabilities. The JTRS GMR program
was developing radios for ground vehicles and the
software needed to operate them. The JTRS GMR
contract also included the development of the
wideband networking waveform. In October 2011,
DOD terminated the JTRS GMR program. It plans
to pursue an alternative strategy to meet ground
vehicle networking and communications
requirements.
                                                     Source: Department of Defense.

Current Status

In October 2011, the JTRS GMR program was terminated when the Acting Under Secretary of Defense for
Acquisition, Technology and Logistics decided not to certify it to continue after a Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost
breach of the critical threshold. The Under Secretary attributed the unit-cost growth to a reduction in
quantity, an inadequate analysis of the program’s affordability at its inception, a series of contractor and
program execution issues, and the addition of new information-assurance requirements. The Under
Secretary also noted that it was unlikely that the JTRS GMR program could meet its requirements in an
affordable manner and may not meet some requirements at all. The radio had performed poorly during
testing, prompting the test unit to conclude that its development should end and it should not be fielded.
Finally, an assessment of alternative options found that a competitive market had emerged with the potential
to deliver radios that meet the Army’s capability needs at a reduced cost.

In order to meet networking requirements for ground vehicles, DOD plans to pursue a two-pronged
approach. First, the current JTRS GMR contractor will continue development through March 2012 when the
term of the contract ends, which will allow for completion of the JTRS GMR’s National Security Agency
information assurance certification, its operating environment software, and the wideband networking
waveform. Second, DOD established a new program to test and evaluate low-cost, nondevelopmental
radios with reduced size, weight, and power with a plan to field them in fiscal year 2014. In November 2011,
the Navy Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command, on behalf of the JTRS Joint Program Executive
Office, released a draft request for proposal for this new program to seek input from industry, with the
expectation that a formal solicitation will be released in February 2012.

Estimated Total Program Cost (through fiscal year 2011): $1,832.3 million

Next Major Program Event: NA

Program Office Comments: The JTRS Joint Program Executive Office was provided a draft of this
assessment and did not offer any comments.




                                  Page 150                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                          Common Name: Nett Warrior

                                                Nett Warrior
The Army’s Nett Warrior program is an integrated
situational awareness system for use during combat
operations. It was to consist of a radio furnished by
the government and several contractor-developed
items including a hands-free display, headset, and
computer. According to program officials, the
program is being restructured to deliver useable
increments of capability sooner and for less money.
The Army now plans to procure a commercially
developed system that is considerably smaller and
lighter.

                                                        Source: U.S. Army.


Current Status

The Nett Warrior program is being restructured based on concerns about its affordability and performance in
testing. The program was approved to enter technology development in February 2009 and planned to
proceed directly to production in fiscal year 2011. The Army awarded cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts to three
contractors for a suite of prototype equipment, which included a hands-free display, headset, computer,
navigation equipment, antenna, and cables, that would eventually integrate with a government-furnished
JTRS Rifleman radio. These prototypes underwent developmental testing and were evaluated in an October
2010 limited user test. Program officials indicated that a number of performance issues were revealed
during testing and the size, weight, and power demands of the system resulted in it having little to no overall
operational benefit. In September 2011, the Army decided to restructure the program, and program officials
stated that a stop work order was issued for all three contractors.

Program officials further stated that the Army now plans to provide soldiers with commercially based, smart
phone–type devices connected to a JTRS Rifleman radio. According to the Army, moving to a commercial
solution will significantly reduce the cost and weight of the Nett Warrior capability. Before the restructuring,
the program was projected to cost $1.936 billion to develop and acquire 74,197 sets of equipment. Program
officials indicate that the new system is projected to reduce costs by as much as 60 percent and, as a result,
the program is no longer considered a major defense acquisition. The new system was evaluated in the
Army’s semiannual network integration evaluation that concluded in November 2011. The Army plans to
utilize the results from this test to inform a competitive procurement, which will then be followed by additional
testing and the planned deployment of an incremental capability in fiscal year 2013.

Estimated Total Program Cost: TBD

Next Major Program Event: Production decision, March 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the program office
acknowledged the requirement changes the program has experienced, which serve to emphasize the
potential benefits provided by commercially developed equipment solutions. The program office also
provided technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                   Page 151                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: OR

                                  Ohio-Class Replacement (OR)
The Navy’s Ohio-class Replacement (OR) will
replace the current fleet of Ohio-class ballistic
missile submarines (SSBN) as they begin to retire in
2027. The Navy began research and development
in 2008, in order to avoid a gap in sea-based
nuclear deterrence between the Ohio-class’s
retirement and the production of a replacement. The
Navy is working with the United Kingdom to develop
a common missile compartment for use on OR and
the United Kingdom’s replacement for the Vanguard
SSBN. OR will initially carry the Trident II missile.

                                                        Source: © 2010 General Dynamics Electric Boat.

Current Status

The OR program began technology development in January 2011. Affordability has been an early focus of
the program. Due to its high cost, Navy officials have stated the OR program could stress Navy shipbuilding
budgets in the 2020 to 2030 time frame. Program officials stated that they are trying to reduce the average
procurement unit cost from an estimated $5.6 billion to $4.9 billion (in fiscal year 2010 dollars). The program
is considering procuring OR as part of a block buy with the Virginia-class submarine to reduce procurement
costs by an estimated 13 percent, and is lining up its production schedule to match that program in case this
option is pursued. The Navy also decided to use 16 87-inch diameter tubes per submarine, which, while
fewer than the Ohio-class, is expected to reduce costs while meeting the anticipated future strategic
requirement based on arms reduction trends. According to the program, a four-way competition is ongoing
to develop prototype tubes and efficient manufacturing processes for outfitting these tubes into the hull,
including the use of a “quad pack” configuration that could reduce cost and construction time.

According to Navy officials, they are currently defining requirements and conducting early design work for
the program with Electric Boat as the design agent responsible for the overall ship design and Huntington
Ingalls Industries as a subcontractor. For example, the Navy is planning to use a new X-stern aft control
surface configuration for steering the submarine, pending successful testing. This design is expected to
provide the desired maneuverability and increase maintainability. OR may also use electric propulsion,
which would help improve the submarine’s stealthiness because it uses fewer moving parts. Program
officials said they plan to have the three-dimensional design complete prior to starting construction on the
lead ship to minimize rework, delays, and the potential for cost growth.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $90,433.5 million
Research and development: $11,142.8 million
Procurement: $79,290.7 million
Quantity: 12

Next Major Program Event: Preliminary design review, March 2014

Program Office Comments: The Navy provided technical comments, which were incorporated as
appropriate.




                                   Page 152                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                             Common Name: Patriot/MEADS CAP Fire Unit

    Patriot/Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) Combined Aggregate Program (CAP) Fire Unit

The Army’s Patriot/Medium Extended Air Defense
System (MEADS) Combined Aggregate Program
was a ground-mobile system intended to provide
low- to medium-altitude air and missile defense to
counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or
other air-breathing threats. It included Patriot
missile upgrades with a new battle management
system, launchers, radars, and reloaders. MEADS
is being codeveloped by the United States,
Germany, and Italy.



                                                           Source: Lockheed Martin/MBDA/LFK (MEADS International).

Current Status

In February 2011, the Office of the Secretary of Defense proposed ending U.S. involvement in the MEADS
program before development had been completed. In making its decision, DOD cited lingering concerns
about the high degree of risk in the program and its affordability. DOD still plans to provide $803.7 million in
funding through fiscal year 2013 for design and development activities, as required by the terms of its
existing memorandum of understanding with its international partners.

Since MEADS development cannot be completed with the funding currently provided under the
memorandum of understanding, the program office will instead work towards a demonstration of capabilities,
which includes two planned flight tests. Much of the remaining development effort will be focused on the
multifunction fire control radar, launcher, and battle management system. Program officials stated that
launcher development is on track, but the battle management software is delayed and the multifunction
radar still faces hardware challenges. Further delays in the development of these items could cause the
program to reduce the number of planned flight tests to one. The program has stopped developing the
system support vehicle, MEADS network radio, and reloader. It has also curtailed development of the
surveillance radar, but plans to provide a low-cost prototype with 50 percent of the planned active
electronics of the full radar design for the demonstration. Program officials stated that the surveillance radar
is the most important item for the United States because it can potentially be leveraged for other systems.
Program elements, such as the near-vertical launcher and a cooling technology for rotating phased-array
radars, also might prove useful on other air and missile defense programs.

Estimated Total Program Cost (through fiscal year 2013): $3,280.4 million

Next Major Program Event: First flight test, November 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Army stated that limited
activities may continue into fiscal year 2014 and beyond. For example, international and U.S.-only contract
closeout activities and data archiving may extend beyond fiscal year 2013. Additionally, the European
partners may continue MEADS element development, which would require U.S. support through foreign
military sales.




                                     Page 153                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: VXX

                                    Presidential Helicopter (VXX)
The Navy’s VXX program is intended to develop a
presidential helicopter replacement fleet that will
provide transportation for the President, Vice
President, heads of state, and others as directed.
The VXX fleet will replace the current fleet of VH-3D
and VH-60N helicopters. The initial replacement
effort, the VH-71, was terminated in June 2009 due
to excessive cost growth and schedule delays, but
the requirement to field a replacement remained.
The Navy is also taking steps to extend the life of
the current VH-3D/VH-60N fleet and streamline the
VXX acquisition strategy.
                                                         Source: U.S. Navy.


Current Status

In June 2010, the VXX program received its materiel development decision and began assessing
alternatives to replace the existing VH-3D/VH-60N helicopter fleet. The Navy completed and provided to
DOD the results of its analysis of alternatives in March 2011. DOD officials reviewed the results and
determined that the Navy’s analysis study did not find an acceptable—that is, cost-effective—solution. The
Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the Navy subsequently decided to update the analysis of
alternatives using an acquisition strategy that might result in a more timely and affordable program using
additional guidance provided by OSD in December 2011. This strategy is based on leveraging mature
technologies that will be developed outside of the VXX program before including them on VXX aircraft. DOD
officials stated that the new analysis of alternatives will also include revised configurations that will satisfy a
refined set of requirements. The program has been delayed until this analysis is completed.

As a result of the termination of the VH-71 and delay of the VXX effort, the legacy Presidential helicopter
fleet will be upgraded and its service life will be extended. The upgrades will address many, but not all, of the
capability gaps of the legacy fleet. The Navy plans to conduct a service life extension program (SLEP) on
the legacy fleet that will extend their service life by 4,000 hours. The VH-3D and VH-60N will receive these
modifications, including structural enhancements, during their routine overhaul cycles. The SLEP will allow
the aircraft to operate until replacement aircraft are fielded, which the Navy wants to accomplish as quickly
as possible as it has stated that the capability shortfalls of the current fleet cannot be otherwise overcome.

Estimated Total Program Cost: TBD

Next Major Program Event: Revised VXX analysis of alternatives, TBD

Program Office Comments: The program office concurred with the assessment and provided technical
comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                    Page 154                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                                                                Common Name: 3DELRR

           Three Dimensional Expeditionary Long Range Radar (3DELRR)
The Air Force’s 3DELRR will be the long-range,
ground-based sensor for detecting, identifying,
tracking, and reporting aircraft and missiles for the
Joint Forces Air Component Commander. It will
provide real-time data and support a range of
expeditionary operations in all types of weather and
terrain. It is being acquired to replace the Air Force’s
AN/TPS-75 radar systems. The Marine Corps is
considering 3DELRR as a potential replacement to
the AN/TPS-59 to support the Marine Air-Ground
Task Force Commander.

                                                           Source: U.S. Air Force.

Current Status

The 3DELRR program entered technology development in May 2009. The Air Force awarded two contracts
for competing prototypes and plans to conduct a full and open competition and award a single cost-plus
incentive fee contract for additional technology development activities. These activities include defining the
preliminary system design, conducting a preliminary design review, producing a functioning system
prototype for a capability demonstration, and other risk-reduction activities. The contract will also include
options for system development, which is expected to begin in the first quarter of fiscal year 2014, and initial
production. The program office reported that it has delayed the release of the request for proposal for this
contract indefinitely due to its ongoing revision of the 3DELRR acquisition strategy. The revision is focused
on the program’s affordability and plans for competition.

The 3DELRR program is focused on reducing technical risk before beginning system development and has
identified eight critical technologies. In April 2011, an independent review team reported that the program
successfully demonstrated its critical technologies between both prototypes, though program officials noted
the technologies still need to be integrated and demonstrated as a system. The program’s technology
development strategy calls for these technologies to be nearing maturity and demonstrated in a relevant
environment at the start of system development. The program also expects to complete a preliminary design
review prior to system development. Initial operational capability for the radar is targeted for approximately
2020.

Estimated Total Program Cost: $2,124.0 million
Research and development: $754.6 million
Procurement: $1,369.4 million (Air Force only)
Quantities: 35 (Air Force only)

Next Major Program Event: Contract award, TBD

Program Office Comments: The program office concurred with this assessment.




                                     Page 155                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Common Name: UCLASS

      Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) System
The Navy’s UCLASS is expected to enable a single
aircraft carrier to conduct sustained operations
including intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance (ISR), as well as targeting, strike,
and bomb damage assessment. The system will
address a gap in persistent sea-based ISR with
precision strike capabilities. It includes upgrades to
carrier infrastructure and systems, upgrades to
existing command and control systems, and an
unmanned aerial vehicle.



                                                         Source: U.S. Navy.


Current Status

The UCLASS program received its materiel development decision in July 2011. The program aims to
achieve a limited initial capability in 2018 using existing capabilities that the Navy believes can be leveraged
to support a UCLASS platform. The feasibility of this strategy will depend, in part, on the success of Navy’s
Unmanned Combat Air System Aircraft Carrier Demonstration (UCAS-D). The UCAS-D program’s scope
consists of design, development, integration, and demonstration of a carrier-suitable, low-observable,
unmanned combat air system platform in support of a future acquisition program. UCAS-D will demonstrate
carrier operations, including autonomous aerial refueling, as well as mature critical technologies needed to
operate and integrate the aircraft with the ship. The analysis of alternatives for the UCLASS program, which
was planned to be completed in January 2012, assumes that the UCAS-D program is successful in maturing
technologies required to conduct launch, recovery, and carrier-controlled airspace operations and that the
technologies can be applied to the UCLASS. Although the UCAS-D aircraft is not scheduled to demonstrate
a carrier landing until 2013, F/A-18 flight test points from June 2011 have demonstrated the unmanned
landing technology that will be incorporated into the UCLASS design. The program is considering cost and
performance trade-offs such as endurance, payload, speed, sensors, and survivability to ensure the system
is affordable and can provide limited initial capability by 2018. The analysis of alternatives will also likely
address options for incrementally growing capabilities over time through the use of modular ISR and
precision strike mission packages. Officials stated that it is critical that a request for proposal be released in
fiscal year 2012 for the program to achieve a 2018 limited initial capability.

Estimated Total Program Cost: TBD
Research and development (fiscal years 2012 to 2016): $2,422.7 million
Quantity: TBD

Next Major Program Event: Technology development start, September 2012

Program Office Comments: In commenting on a draft of this assessment, the Navy stated that UCLASS
system design is informed by UCAS-D activities and successful UCAS-D surrogate carrier tests have proven
the technologies that inform the UCLASS carrier and system specifications. These specifications support
the UCLASS request for proposal release in fiscal year 2012. The President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2013
adjusts the schedule and associated funding to provide an intial capability by 2020 instead of 2018. The
Navy also provided technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate.




                                    Page 156                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Agency Comments and   DOD provided written comments on a draft of this report. The comments
                      are reprinted in appendix VI. We also received technical comments from
Our Evaluation        DOD, which have been addressed in the report as appropriate.

                      In its comments, DOD stated it appreciates our efforts to develop improved
                      methods and metrics but, while it does not disagree with the data used,
                      still does not fully agree with those methods and metrics. In particular,
                      DOD states that the aggregate cost growth measures in the report fail to
                      adequately address when, why, and how cost growth occurred.
                      Specifically, DOD stated that the report does not make obvious in the
                      aggregate measures or discussion that the portfolio changes every year.
                      In addition, DOD commented that the cost of programs often increase or
                      decrease for reasons other than overly optimistic planning, faulty
                      estimating, or poor execution, such as changing requirements, funding
                      incremental upgrades, changing inventory goals, and adjustments to
                      production rates.

                      We believe the report includes observations that directly address each of
                      these areas. We report the aggregate cost growth for DOD's 2011 portfolio
                      of major defense acquisition programs over the last year, the past 5 years,
                      and since programs’ first full estimates. Our assessment also makes a
                      number of observations that seek to determine the reasons for that
                      aggregate cost growth, including examining how much of the procurement
                      cost growth in the past year was due to changes in quantities and
                      identifying the link between development cost growth for programs in
                      production and incremental upgrades to these systems. Finally, the report
                      includes analysis of how the portfolio has changed over the past year, how
                      it is likely to change in the next fiscal year, and how this may affect both
                      the number of programs and cost of DOD’s portfolio of major defense
                      acquisition programs.


                      We are sending copies of this report to the Secretary of Defense; the
                      Secretaries of the Army, Navy, and Air Force; the Director of the Office of
                      Management and Budget; and interested congressional committees. In
                      addition, the report will be made available at no charge on the GAO Web
                      site at http://www.gao.gov.

                      If you or your staff have any questions concerning this report, please
                      contact me at (202) 512-4841. Contact points for our offices of
                      Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page



                      Page 157                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
of this report. Staff members making key contributions to this report are
listed in appendix VII.




Michael J. Sullivan
Director, Acquisition and Sourcing Management




Page 158                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
List of Committees

The Honorable Carl Levin
Chairman
The Honorable John McCain
Ranking Member
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate

The Honorable Daniel Inouye
Chairman
The Honorable Thad Cochran
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on Defense
Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate

The Honorable Howard P. McKeon
Chairman
The Honorable Adam Smith
Ranking Member
Committee on Armed Services
House of Representatives

The Honorable C.W. Bill Young
Chairman 
The Honorable Norman D. Dicks
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on Defense
Committee on Appropriations
House of Representatives




Page 159                 GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix I

Scope and Methodology                                                                                           AA
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                                                                                                                      id
                                                                                                                       e
                                                                                                                       x
                                                                                                                       Iis




Analysis of the Cost   This report contains observations on the cost and schedule performance
                       of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) fiscal year 2011 major defense
Performance of DOD’s   acquisition program portfolio. To develop these observations, we obtained
Portfolio of Major     and analyzed data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR) and other
                       information in the Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval
Defense Acquisition    (DAMIR) Purview system, referred to as DAMIR.1 We refer to programs
Programs               with SARs dated December 2010 as the 2011 portfolio. We converted cost
                       information to fiscal year 2012 dollars using conversion factors from the
                       DOD Comptroller’s National Defense Budget Estimates for Fiscal Year
                       2012 (table 5-9). Data for the total planned investment of major defense
                       acquisition programs were obtained from DAMIR, which we aggregated for
                       all programs using fiscal year 2012 dollars. To calculate cost remaining to
                       completion we used funding stream data obtained from DAMIR on the
                       programs in the 2011 portfolio to determine what funds had been allocated
                       in prior years for all activities and how much funding is required for the
                       program to complete its acquisition. The Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA)
                       Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is excluded from our analysis of
                       the 2011 portfolio.

                       We also collected and analyzed data on the composition of DOD’s major
                       defense acquisition program portfolio. To determine changes in that
                       portfolio, we compared the programs that issued SARs in December 2010
                       with the list of programs that issued SARs in December 2009. To assess
                       the cost effect of changes to the major defense acquisition portfolio, we
                       calculated the estimated total acquisition cost for the six programs exiting
                       the portfolio and for the four programs entering the portfolio. To project the
                       number and cost of programs expected to be in the 2012 portfolio, we
                       used data from the December 2010 and September 2011 SARs to identify
                       the programs leaving the portfolio and their estimated cost. We used data
                       from DOD’s 2011 Major Defense Acquisition Program list, program offices,
                       and DOD’s fiscal year 2012 budget request to estimate the number and
                       cost of programs expected to enter the 2012 portfolio.

                       To compare the cost of major defense acquisition programs over the past
                       year, 5 years, and from first full estimates, we collected data from
                       December 2010, December 2009, and December 2005 SARs; acquisition


                       1
                        DAMIR Purview is an executive information system operated by the Office of the Under
                       Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics / Acquisition Resources and
                       Analysis.




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Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




program baselines; and program offices. We retrieved data on research,
development, test, and evaluation; procurement; and total acquisition cost
estimates for the 96 major defense acquisition programs in the 2011
portfolio. We divided some SAR programs into smaller elements, because
DOD reports performance data on them separately, resulting in a total of
99 programs and subelements. We analyzed the data to determine the
change in research and development, procurement, and total acquisition
costs from the first full estimate, generally development start, to the current
estimate. For the programs that did not have a development estimate, we
compared the current estimate to the production estimate. Also, for the
shipbuilding programs that had a planning estimate, we compared the
current estimate to the planning estimate. For programs that began as
non–major defense acquisition programs, the first full estimate we used as
a baseline may be different than the original baseline contained in DOD
SARs. When comparable cost and schedule data were not available for
programs, we excluded them from the analysis. To calculate cost growth
incurred over the past year, from 2010 to 2011, we calculated the
difference between the December 2009 and December 2010 SARs for
programs older than 1 year. For programs less than a year old, we
calculated the difference between December 2010 and first full estimates.
We converted all dollar figures to fiscal year 2012 constant dollars. We
took a similar approach for calculating cost growth incurred from 2006 to
2011. We also obtained schedule information and calculated the cycle time
from program start to initial operational capability; delay in obtaining initial
operational capability; and the delay in initial capability as a percentage of
total cycle time. Finally, we extracted data on program acquisition unit cost
to determine whether a program’s buying power had increased or
decreased.

To calculate the amount of procurement cost growth attributable to
quantity changes, we isolated the change in procurement quantities and
the prior average procurement unit cost for programs over the past year.
For those programs with a change in procurement quantities, we
calculated the amount attributable to quantity changes as the change in
quantity multiplied by the average procurement unit cost for the program a
year ago. The resulting dollar amount is considered a change due solely to
shifts in the number of units procured and may overestimate the amount of
change expected when quantities increase and underestimate the
expected change when quantities decrease as it does not account for
other effects of quantity changes on procurement such as gain or loss of
learning in production that could result in changes to unit cost over time or
the use or absence of economic orders of material. However, these



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                       Appendix I
                       Scope and Methodology




                       changes are accounted for as part of the change in cost not due to
                       quantities. An average procurement unit cost was not included in last
                       year’s SAR for the Littoral Combat Ship program. We calculated an
                       average procurement unit cost for the program using the procurement
                       quantities and funding up through fiscal year 2010 included in this year’s
                       SAR.

                       To evaluate program performance against high-risk criteria discussed by
                       DOD, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and GAO, we
                       calculated how many programs had less than a 2 percent increase in total
                       acquisition cost over the past year, less than a 10 percent increase over
                       the past 5 years, and less than a 15 percent increase from first full
                       estimates using data from December 2010, December 2009, and
                       December 2005 SARs; acquisition program baselines; and program
                       offices. For programs that began as non–major defense acquisition
                       programs, the first full estimate we used as a baseline may be different
                       than the original baseline contained in DOD SARs. For programs with
                       multiple subprograms presented in the SARs we calculated the net effect
                       of the subprograms to reach an aggregate program result.

                       Through discussions with DOD officials responsible for the database and
                       confirming selected data with program offices, we determined that the
                       SAR data and the information retrieved from DAMIR were sufficiently
                       reliable for our purposes.



Analysis of Selected   Our analysis of how well programs are adhering to a knowledge-based
                       acquisition approach focuses on 37 major defense acquisition programs
DOD Programs Using     that are in development or the early stages of production.
Knowledge-Based
                       To assess the knowledge attained by key decision points (system
Criteria               development start or detailed design contract award for shipbuilding
                       programs, critical design review or fabrication start for shipbuilding
                       programs, and production start), we collected data from program offices
                       about their knowledge at each point. In particular, we focused on the eight
                       programs that entered these key acquisition points in 2011 and evaluated
                       their adherence to knowledge-based practices. We did not validate the
                       data provided by the program offices, but reviewed the data and
                       performed various checks to determine that they were reliable enough for
                       our purposes. Where we discovered discrepancies, we clarified the data
                       accordingly.




                       Page 162                   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                          Appendix I
                          Scope and Methodology




                          Programs in our assessment were in various stages of the acquisition
                          cycle, and not all of the programs provided knowledge information for each
                          point. Programs were not included in our assessments if relevant decision
                          or knowledge data were not available. For each decision point, we
                          summarized knowledge attainment for the number of programs with data
                          that achieved that knowledge point. Our analysis of knowledge attained at
                          each key point includes factors that we have previously identified as being
                          key to a knowledge-based acquisition approach, including holding early
                          systems engineering reviews, testing an integrated prototype prior to the
                          design review, using a reliability growth curve, planning for manufacturing,
                          and testing a production-representative prototype prior to making a
                          production decision. Additional information on how we collected these data
                          is found in the product knowledge assessment section of this appendix.
                          See appendix IV for a list of these practices.



Analysis of Acquisition   To determine how DOD has begun to implement acquisition reforms, we
                          obtained and analyzed the revised DOD 5000.02 acquisition instruction,
Reform                    the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, and the September
Implementation            14, 2010, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and
                          Logistics memorandum on better buying power as well as the subsequent
                          memorandums clarifying and implementing that guidance.

                          We analyzed data from surveys received from the 37 active and 16 future
                          major defense acquisition programs in our assessment to determine the
                          extent to which programs were implementing requirements for holding
                          systems engineering reviews; developing competitive prototypes;
                          maturing critical technologies; considering trade-offs among cost,
                          schedule, and performance objectives before development start; and
                          establishing affordability targets and “should cost” analyses. We also
                          collected information on whether these programs are planning to
                          incorporate competition into their acquisition strategies.2


                          2
                           The statutory requirement is that the acquisition strategy for each major defense
                          acquisition program include measures to ensure competition, or the option of competition,
                          throughout the life cycle of the program. Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009,
                          Pub. L. No. 111-23, § 202. The survey question with respect to this requirement for major
                          defense acquisition programs read “Does the program’s acquisition strategy call for
                          competition between Milestone B and the completion of production?” For future programs
                          the question read “Does the program’s technology development strategy or acquisition
                          strategy call for competition between Milestone B and the completion of production?” When
                          programs answered “no” to the question, we interpreted that answer to mean that the
                          program is not planning to incorporate competition, or the option of competition, after
                          development start into the acquisition strategy.


                          Page 163                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




To collect data from future major defense acquisition programs—including
cost and schedule estimates, technology maturity, and planned
implementation of acquisition reforms—we distributed an electronic survey
to 22 programs planning to become major defense acquisition programs
and enter system development or bypass system development and start
production. Both the surveys for current and future major defense
acquisition programs were sent by e-mail in an attached Microsoft Word
form that respondents could return electronically. We received responses
from August to October 2011. During the course of our review, we dropped
six future programs from this analysis; four because of schedule changes
that prevented them from entering technology development in 2011, one
due to program cancellation, and one because the program did not
respond fully to our data request. Therefore, our assessment of future
major defense acquisition programs consists of 16 programs that will likely
become major defense acquisition programs and are nearing system
development start or proceeding directly to a production decision.

To ensure the reliability of the data collected through our surveys, we took
a number of steps to reduce measurement error, nonresponse error, and
respondent bias. These steps included conducting two pretests for the
future major defense acquisition program survey and three pretests for the
major defense acquisition program survey by phone prior to distribution to
ensure that our questions were clear, unbiased, and consistently
interpreted; reviewing responses to identify obvious errors or
inconsistencies; conducting follow-up to clarify responses when needed;
and verifying the accuracy of a sample of keypunched surveys.

To determine the amount DOD plans to invest in future major defense
acquisition programs before entering system development or, for those
planning to bypass system development, production, we collected budget
data from the President’s Budget for Fiscal Years 2007 through 2012 for
each of the 16 future major defense acquisition programs we reviewed.
For each program, we summed all planned funding from program start
through, but not including, the fiscal year of the planned start of system
development or production. We obtained the planned start date of system
development from the survey we submitted to 16 future major defense
acquisition programs or other program office documentation. For two
programs that were planning to bypass system development, we used the
planned date of production start. For the 92 current major defense
acquisition programs that reported a system development or production
start date in their December 2010 SAR, we used annual funding stream
data from DAMIR to calculate the investment made in each program from



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                         Appendix I
                         Scope and Methodology




                         program start through, but not including, the fiscal year of the start of
                         system development or production start for programs that bypassed
                         system development. We converted both sets of numbers to fiscal year
                         2012 constant dollars using conversion factors from the DOD
                         Comptroller’s National Defense Budget Estimates for Fiscal Year 2012
                         (table 5-9).



Individual Assessments   In total, this report presents individual assessments of 68 weapon
                         programs. A table listing these programs is found in appendix VII. Out of
of Weapon Programs       these programs, 48 are captured in a two-page format discussing
                         technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge obtained and other
                         program issues. Thirty-seven of these 48 two-page assessments are of
                         major defense acquisition programs, most of which are in development or
                         early production; 5 assessments are of elements of MDA’s BMDS; and 6
                         assessments are of programs that were projected to become major
                         defense acquisition programs during or soon after our review. The
                         remaining 20 programs are described in a one-page format that describes
                         their current status. These programs include 14 future major defense
                         acquisition programs, 2 major defense acquisition programs that are well
                         into production, 1 element of MDA’s BMDS, and 3 major defense
                         acquisition programs that were recently terminated. Over the past several
                         years, DOD has revised policies governing weapon system acquisitions
                         and changed the terminology used for major acquisition events. To make
                         DOD’s acquisition terminology more consistent across the 68 program
                         assessments, we standardized the terminology for key program events.
                         For most individual programs in our assessment, “development start”
                         refers to the initiation of an acquisition program as well as the start of
                         engineering and manufacturing development. This coincides with DOD’s
                         milestone B. A few programs in our assessment have a separate “program
                         start” date, which begins a pre–system development phase for program
                         definition and risk-reduction activities. This “program start” date generally
                         coincides with DOD’s former terminology for milestone I or DOD’s current
                         milestone A. The “production decision” generally refers to the decision to
                         enter the production and deployment phase, typically with low-rate initial
                         production. The “initial capability” refers to the initial operational
                         capability—sometimes called first unit equipped or required asset
                         availability. For shipbuilding programs, the schedule of key program
                         events in relation to acquisition milestones varies for each program. Our
                         work on shipbuilding best practices has identified the detailed design
                         contract award and the start of lead ship fabrication as the points in the
                         acquisition process roughly equivalent to development start and design



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Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




review for other programs. For MDA programs that do not follow the
standard DOD acquisition model but instead develop systems’ capabilities
incrementally, we identify the key technology development efforts that lead
to an initial capability.

For each program we assessed in a two-page format, we present cost,
schedule, and quantity data at the program’s first full estimate and an
estimate from the latest SAR or the program office reflecting 2011 data
where they were available. The first full estimate is generally the cost
estimate established at milestone B—development start; however, for a
few programs that did not have such an estimate, we used the estimate at
milestone C—production start—instead. For shipbuilding programs, we
used their planning estimates if those estimates were available. For
systems for which a first full estimate was not available, we only present
the latest available estimate of cost and quantities. For the other programs
assessed in a one-page format, we present the latest available estimate of
cost and quantity from the program office.

For each program we assessed, all cost information is presented in fiscal
year 2012 dollars. We converted cost information to fiscal year 2012
dollars using conversion factors from the DOD Comptroller’s National
Defense Budget Estimates for Fiscal Year 2012 (table 5-9). We have
depicted only the program’s main elements of acquisition cost—research
and development and procurement. However, the total program cost also
includes military construction and acquisition-related operation and
maintenance costs. Because of rounding and these additional costs, in
some situations, total cost may not match the exact sum of the research
and development and procurement costs. The program unit costs are
calculated by dividing the total program cost by the total quantities
planned. In some instances, the data were not applicable, and we
annotate this by using the term “not applicable (NA).” The quantities listed
refer to total quantities, including both procurement and development
quantities.

The schedule assessment for each program is based on acquisition cycle
time, defined as the number of months between program start and the
achievement of initial operational capability or an equivalent fielding date.
In some instances the data were not yet available, and we annotate this by
using the term “to be determined (TBD)” or “NA.”

The information presented on the “funding needed to complete” is from
fiscal year 2012 through completion and, unless otherwise noted, draws



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                       Appendix I
                       Scope and Methodology




                       on information from SARs or on data from the program office. In some
                       instances, the data were not available, and we annotate this by the term
                       “TBD” or “NA.” The quantities listed refer only to procurement quantities.
                       Satellite programs, in particular, produce a large percentage of their total
                       operational units as development quantities, which are not included in the
                       quantity figure.

                       The intent of these comparisons is to provide an aggregate, or overall,
                       picture of a program’s history. These assessments represent the sum of
                       the federal government’s actions on a program, not just those of the
                       program manager and the contractor. DOD does a number of detailed
                       analyses of changes that attempt to link specific changes with triggering
                       events or causes. Our analysis does not attempt to make such detailed
                       distinctions.



Product Knowledge      In our past work examining weapon acquisition issues and best practices
                       for product development, we have found that leading commercial firms
Data on Individual     pursue an acquisition approach that is anchored in knowledge, whereby
Two-Page Assessments   high levels of product knowledge are demonstrated by critical points in the
                       acquisition process. On the basis of this work, we have identified three key
                       knowledge points during the acquisition cycle—system development start,
                       critical design review, and production start—at which programs need to
                       demonstrate critical levels of knowledge to proceed. To assess the product
                       development knowledge of each program at these key points, we
                       reviewed data-collection instruments and surveys submitted by programs;
                       however, not every program had responses to each element of the data-
                       collection instrument or survey. We also reviewed pertinent program
                       documentation and discussed the information presented on the data-
                       collection instrument and survey with program officials as necessary.

                       To assess a program’s readiness to enter system development, we
                       collected data on critical technologies and early design reviews. To assess
                       technology maturity, we asked program officials to apply a tool, referred to
                       as Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), for our analysis. The National
                       Aeronautics and Space Administration originally developed TRLs, and the
                       Army and Air Force science and technology research organizations use
                       them to determine when technologies are ready to be handed off from
                       science and technology managers to product developers. TRLs are
                       measured on a scale from 1 to 9, beginning with paper studies of a
                       technology’s feasibility and culminating with a technology fully integrated
                       into a completed product. See appendix V for TRL definitions. Our best-



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Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




practices work has shown that a TRL 7—demonstration of a technology in
a realistic environment—is the level of technology maturity that constitutes
a low risk for starting a product development program.3 For shipbuilding
programs, we have recommended that this level of maturity be achieved
by the contract award for detailed design.4 In our assessment, the
technologies that have reached TRL 7, a prototype demonstrated in a
realistic environment, are referred to as mature or fully mature. Those
technologies that have reached TRL 6, a prototype demonstrated in a
relevant environment, are referred to as approaching or nearing maturity.
Satellite technologies that have achieved TRL 6 are assessed as fully
mature due to the difficulty of demonstrating maturity in a realistic
environment—space. In addition, we asked program officials to provide
the date of the preliminary design review. We compared this date to the
system development start date.

In most cases, we did not validate the program offices’ selection of critical
technologies or the determination of the demonstrated level of maturity.
We sought to clarify the TRLs in those cases where information existed
that raised concerns. If we were to conduct a detailed review, we might
adjust the critical technologies assessed, their readiness levels
demonstrated, or both. It was not always possible to reconstruct the
technological maturity of a weapon system at key decision points after the
passage of many years. Where practicable, we compared technology
assessments provided by the program office to assessments conducted
by officials from the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Research and Engineering.

To assess design stability, we asked program officials to provide the
percentage of design drawings completed or projected for completion by
the design review, the production decision, and as of our current
assessment.5 In most cases, we did not verify or validate the percentage
of engineering drawings provided by the program office. We clarified the


3
 GAO, Best Practices: Better Management of Technology Development Can Improve
Weapon System Outcomes, GAO/NSIAD-99-162 (Washington, D.C.: July 30, 1999); GAO,
Best Practices: Better Matching of Needs and Resources Will Lead to Better Weapon
System Outcomes, GAO-01-288 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 8, 2001).
4
 GAO, Best Practices: High Levels of Knowledge at Key Points Differentiate Commercial
Shipbuilding from Navy Shipbuilding, GAO-09-322 (Washington, D.C.: May 13, 2009).
5
 GAO, Best Practices: Capturing Design and Manufacturing Knowledge Early Improves
Acquisition Outcomes, GAO-02-701 (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2002).




Page 168                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




percentage of drawings completed in those cases where information that
raised concerns existed. Completed drawings were defined as the number
of drawings released or deemed releasable to manufacturing that can be
considered the “build to” drawings. For shipbuilding programs, we asked
program officials to provide the percentage of the three-dimensional
product model that had been completed by the start of lead ship
fabrication, and as of our current assessment.6 To gain greater insights
into design stability, we also asked program officials to provide the date
they planned to first integrate and test all key subsystems and components
into a system-level integrated prototype. We compared this date to the
date of the design review. We did not assess whether shipbuilding
programs had completed integrated prototypes.

To assess production maturity, we asked program officials to identify the
number of critical manufacturing processes and, where available, to
quantify the extent of statistical control achieved for those processes.7 In
most cases, we did not verify or validate the information provided by the
program office. We clarified the number of critical manufacturing
processes and the percentage of statistical process control where
information existed that raised concerns. We used a standard called the
Process Capability Index, a process-performance measurement that
quantifies how closely a process is running to its specification limits. The
index can be translated into an expected product defect rate, and we have
found it to be a best practice. We also used data provided by the program
offices on their manufacturing readiness levels (MRL) for process
capability and control, a subthread tracked as part of the manufacturing
readiness assessment process recommended by DOD, to determine
production maturity. We assessed programs as having mature
manufacturing processes if they reported an MRL 9 for that subthread—
meaning, that manufacturing processes are stable, adequately controlled,
and capable. To gain further insights into production maturity, we asked
program officials whether the program planned to demonstrate critical
manufacturing processes on a pilot production line before beginning low-
rate production. We also asked programs on what date they planned to
begin system-level development testing of a fully configured, production-
representative prototype in its intended environment. We compared this



6
GAO-09-322.
7
GAO-02-701.




Page 169                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix I
Scope and Methodology




date to the production start date. We did not assess production maturity for
shipbuilding programs.

Although the knowledge points provide excellent indicators of potential
risks, by themselves they do not cover all elements of risk that a program
encounters during development, such as funding instability. Our detailed
reviews on individual systems normally provide a more comprehensive
assessment of risk elements.

We conducted this performance audit from August 2011 to March 2012, in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain
sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that
the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions based on our audit objectives.




Page 170                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix II

Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major
Defense Acquisition Programs over Time                                                                             Appendx
                                                                                                                         Ii




               Table 6 shows the change in research and development cost, procurement
               cost, total acquisition cost, and average delay in delivering initial
               operational capability for the Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2011
               portfolio of major defense acquisition programs. The table presents
               changes that have occurred on these programs in the last year, the last 5
               years, and since their first full cost and schedule estimates.



               Table 6: Changes in DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense Acquisition Programs
               over Time

               Fiscal year 2012 dollars in billions
                                                                                                   Since first full
                                                                   1 year         5 year                estimate
                                                             comparison     comparison               (baseline to
                                                           (2010 to 2011) (2006 to 2011)                    2011)
               Increase in total research and                   $14 billion       $39 billion          $113 billion
               development cost                                  4 percent        14 percent           54 percent
               Increase in total procurement cost               $61 billion      $192 billion          $321 billion
                                                                 5 percent        19 percent            36 percent
               Increase in total acquisition cost               $74 billion      $233 billion          $447 billion
                                                                 5 percent        17 percent            40 percent
               Average delay in delivering initial                1 month          9 months             23 months
               capabilities                                      2 percent        11 percent            32 percent
               Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

               Notes: Data were obtained from DOD’s Selected Acquisition Reports. In a few cases data were
               obtained directly from program offices. Not all programs had comparable cost and schedule data and
               these programs were excluded from the analysis where appropriate. Portfolio performance data do not
               include costs of developing Missile Defense Agency elements. Total acquisition cost includes research
               and development, procurement, acquisition operation and maintenance, and system-specific military
               construction costs.




               Page 171                              GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix III

Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
Acquisition Programs                                                                                                               Appendx
                                                                                                                                         iI




                                             Table 7 contains the current and first full total acquisition cost estimates (in
                                             fiscal year 2012 dollars) for each program or element in the Department of
                                             Defense’s (DOD) 2011 major defense acquisition program portfolio. We
                                             excluded elements of the Missile Defense Agency’s Ballistic Missile
                                             Defense System because comparable current and first full cost estimates
                                             were not available. For each program we show the percent change in total
                                             acquisition cost from the first full estimate, as well as over the past year
                                             and 5 years.



Table 7: Current Cost Estimates and First Full Cost Estimates for DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense Acquisition Programs

Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                             Change in total     Change in total    Change in total
                                                                                 acquisition    acquisition cost   acquisition cost
                                                                              cost from first    within the past   within the past 5
                                          Current total     First full total    full estimate              year               years
Program                                acquisition cost   acquisition cost          (percent)          (percent)           (percent)
Advanced Extremely High                        $14,083              $6,370           121.1%                7.4%             106.6%
Frequency (AEHF) Satellite
Advanced Threat Infrared                         4,853               3,414              42.2                 1.7               -11.6
Countermeasure/Common Missile
Warning System (ATIRCM/CMWS)
AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation                  1,902               1,601              18.8                 2.7               20.7
Guided Missile (AARGM)
AH-64D Longbow Apache                           14,773               6,132             140.9                 0.3               34.8
AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range                   23,582              10,931             115.7                -2.8               38.2
Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM)
AIM-9X/Air-to-Air Missile                        3,750               3,144              19.3                 2.9               12.5
Airborne and Maritime/Fixed Station              8,221               8,154               0.8                -1.4                0.8
Joint Tactical Radio System (AMF
JTRS)
Airborne Signals Intelligence                      554                 347              59.5                -0.1                NA
Payload (ASIP) - Baseline
Apache Block IIIA (AB3A)                        10,737               7,242              48.3                 0.0               48.3
Apache Block IIIB New Build                      2,215               2,370               -6.5               -6.5                -6.5
Army Integrated Air & Missile                    5,529               5,029               9.9                 9.9                9.9
Defense (Army IAMD)
B-2 Extremely High Frequency                       625                 710              -11.9               -0.4               -11.9
SATCOM Capability, Increment 1
B-2 Radar Modernization Program                  1,284               1,339               -4.1               -3.1                2.3
(RMP)
Black Hawk (UH-60M)                             25,169              12,970              94.1               13.0                19.9




                                             Page 172                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                                 Appendix III
                                                 Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                                 DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                                 Acquisition Programs




(Continued From Previous Page)
Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                                  Change in total      Change in total    Change in total
                                                                                      acquisition     acquisition cost   acquisition cost
                                                                                   cost from first     within the past   within the past 5
                                              Current total      First full total    full estimate               year               years
Program                                    acquisition cost    acquisition cost          (percent)           (percent)           (percent)
Block IV Tomahawk (Tactical                           6,943                2,116              228.1               -0.1               54.8
Tomahawk)
Broad Area Maritime Surveillance                    13,052                12,848                1.6               -1.3                1.6
(BAMS) Unmanned Aircraft System
(UAS)
C-130 Avionics Modernization                          6,204                4,132               50.1                1.0               25.7
Program (AMP)
C-130J Hercules                                     15,397                   949             1522.5               -1.0               79.5
C-27J Spartan                                         2,260                3,912              -42.2              13.2                -42.2
C-5 Avionics Modernization Program                    1,282                1,103               16.2               -4.3               30.1
(AMP)
C-5 Reliability Enhancement and                       7,442               10,905              -31.8               -0.2               -29.3
Reengining Program (RERP)
CH-47F Improved Cargo Helicopter                    14,475                 3,220              349.6                5.4               16.0
(CH-47F)
CH-53K - Heavy Lift Replacement                     22,440                16,557               35.5                0.9               35.6
Chemical Demilitarization-                          10,173                 2,642              285.0              26.2               118.3
Assembled Chemical Weapons
Alternatives (Chem Demil-ACWA)
Chemical Demilitarization-U.S. Army                 27,743                15,542               78.5               -4.0                -3.5
Chemical Materials Agency (Chem
Demil-CMA)
Cobra Judy Replacement (CJR)                          1,825                1,631               11.9                0.1               12.6
Cooperative Engagement Capability                     5,209                2,943               77.0                1.4                2.5
(CEC)
CVN 78 Class                                        33,994                35,574               -4.4               -2.0                4.0
DDG 1000 Destroyer                                  20,986                34,800              -39.7                4.4               -41.7
DDG 51 Destroyer                                   101,819                15,186              570.5                6.3               29.3
E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (E-2D                         17,747                14,752               20.3               -1.9               19.9
AHE)
EA-18G Growler                                       11,411                8,976               27.1               -3.1               22.7
Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV)                  3,705                9,157              -59.5              -74.0               -69.7
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet                              57,805                81,732              -29.3                4.3               12.5
F-22 Raptor                                         79,152                91,291              -13.3                0.8                6.1
F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter)           326,535              213,708                52.8              13.4                34.1
Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-                    4,503                3,188               41.2              12.9                41.2
Sight Terminals (FAB-T)




                                                 Page 173                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                              Appendix III
                                              Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                              DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                              Acquisition Programs




(Continued From Previous Page)
Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                               Change in total     Change in total    Change in total
                                                                                   acquisition    acquisition cost   acquisition cost
                                                                                cost from first    within the past   within the past 5
                                           Current total      First full total    full estimate              year               years
Program                                 acquisition cost    acquisition cost          (percent)          (percent)           (percent)
Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles               20,048                10,447              91.9               -7.3               13.7
(FMTV)
Force XXI Battle Command Brigade                   4,147                2,827              46.7               -0.7               51.8
and Below (FBCB2)
Global Broadcast Service (GBS)                     1,152                  576             100.0                1.4               32.7
Global Hawk (RQ-4A/B)                            13,992                 5,392             159.5                1.5               68.4
Global Positioning System (GPS) III                4,332                3,941               9.9                3.1                9.9
Guided Multiple Launch Rocket                      5,827                1,768             229.5               -0.4               -57.5
System (GMLRS)
H-1 Upgrades (4BW/4BN)                           12,557                 3,627             246.3                4.3               55.5
HC/MC-130 Recapitalization                       13,091                 8,364              56.5              56.5                56.5
Program
High Mobility Artillery Rocket System              2,130                4,361             -51.2               -1.3               -35.8
(HIMARS)
Increment 1 Early-Infantry Brigade                 1,277                3,235             -60.5              -59.1               -60.5
Combat Team
Integrated Defensive Electronic                    2,379                2,177              23.3              17.1                23.3
Countermeasures (IDECM)
 Integrated Defensive Electronic                   1,558                1,483               5.0                0.2                5.0
 Countermeasures (IDECM) Blocks
 2/3
 Integrated Defensive Electronic                     822                  694              18.3              16.9                18.3
 Countermeasures (IDECM) Block 4
Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile              7,509                2,318             224.0                2.7               49.9
(JASSM)
Joint Direct Attack Munition                       6,578                3,419              92.4                1.6               11.6
Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV)                     3,674                3,636               1.0               -1.3                1.0
Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile                   7,858                6,666              17.9                4.9               15.3
Defense Elevated Netted Sensor
System (JLENS)
Joint Mine Resistant Ambush                      41,585                23,136              79.7              12.6                79.7
Protected (MRAP)
Joint Precision Approach and                         983                1,012              -2.9               -0.3                -2.9
Landing System (JPALS)
Joint Primary Aircraft Training                    5,724                3,725              53.7               -3.0                -0.3
System (JPATS)
Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW)                       5,589                7,947             -55.4                6.0               19.1




                                              Page 174                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                             Appendix III
                                             Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                             DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                             Acquisition Programs




(Continued From Previous Page)
Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                              Change in total     Change in total    Change in total
                                                                                  acquisition    acquisition cost   acquisition cost
                                                                               cost from first    within the past   within the past 5
                                          Current total      First full total    full estimate              year               years
Program                                acquisition cost    acquisition cost          (percent)          (percent)           (percent)
 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW)                     2,269                2,856             -20.6                1.3                1.3
 Baseline
 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW)                     3,321                5,091             -34.8                4.7               17.8
 Unitary
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)              16,414                17,422              -5.8                1.9                0.6
Ground Mobile Radios (GMR)
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)                5,382               10,037             -46.4              10.8                -47.4
Handheld, Manpack, and Small Form
Fit (HMS)
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)                2,073                  981             111.4                2.4                7.4
Network Enterprise Domain (NED)
KC-130J                                           9,389                9,485              -1.0               -1.0                -1.0
Large Aircraft Infrared                             459                  403              13.8               -0.5               13.8
Countermeasures (LAIRCM)
Lewis and Clark Class (T-AKE) Dry                 6,605                5,283              25.0               -1.2               37.0
Cargo/Ammunition Ship
LHA Replacement Amphibious                      10,095                 3,180             217.4              55.7               217.4
Assault Ship
Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), UH-               2,000                1,811              10.4                0.1               10.6
72A Lakota
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)                      32,868                 2,244               NA                 NA                 NA
LPD 17 Amphibious Transport Dock                18,674                11,712              59.4                0.2               38.1
M982 155mm Precision Guided                       1,813                4,776             -62.0              -26.7               -19.2
Extended Range Artillery Projectile
(Excalibur)
MH-60R Multi-Mission Helicopter                 14,703                 5,536             165.6                1.0               24.2
MH-60S Fleet Combat Support                       8,417                3,508             139.9               -0.3                2.2
Helicopter
Mobile User Objective System                      6,978                6,721               3.8                0.7               17.5
(MUOS)
MQ-1C UAS Gray Eagle                              5,159                1,015             408.2                2.0              159.9
Multifunctional Information                       3,024                1,304             131.8                1.4               19.7
Distribution System (MIDS)
Multi-Platform Radar Technology                   1,427                1,796             -20.6                3.1               -17.7
Insertion Program (MP-RTIP)
National Airspace System (NAS)                    1,658                  868              90.9                2.2                5.6




                                             Page 175                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                             Appendix III
                                             Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                             DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                             Acquisition Programs




(Continued From Previous Page)
Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                              Change in total     Change in total    Change in total
                                                                                  acquisition    acquisition cost   acquisition cost
                                                                               cost from first    within the past   within the past 5
                                          Current total      First full total    full estimate              year               years
Program                                acquisition cost    acquisition cost          (percent)          (percent)           (percent)
National Polar-orbiting Operational               7,272                6,683               8.8              13.6                -47.3
Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS)
Navstar Global Positioning System                 9,110                7,206              74.8              -29.7                -2.1
(GPS)
 Navstar Global Positioning System                7,602                6,217              22.3                1.7                1.0
 (GPS) Space & Control
 Navstar Global Positioning System                1,508                  989              52.5              -31.4                -3.1
 (GPS) User Equipment
Navy Multiband Terminal                           1,881                2,321             -19.0               -7.6               -19.0
P-8A Poseidon                                   32,969                31,034               6.2                0.4                8.7
Patriot Advanced Capability-3                   11,581                5,213             122.2                6.0               14.1
(PAC-3)
PATRIOT/Medium Extended Air                      11,310               26,650             -73.7              -80.2               -70.3
Defense System (MEADS)
Combined Aggregate Program
(CAP)
 PATRIOT/Medium Extended Air                      3,373               19,363             -82.6              -82.1               -82.1
 Defense System (MEADS)
 Combined Aggregate Program
 (CAP) Fire Unit
 PATRIOT/Medium Extended Air                      7,937                7,287               8.9                1.9               11.8
 Defense System (MEADS)
 Combined Aggregate Program
 (CAP) Missile
Reaper Unmanned Aircraft System                  11,892                2,637             351.0                5.2              351.0
(UAS)
Remote Minehunting System                         1,414                1,442              -1.9                9.2                -1.9
Sea Launched Ballistic Missile -                53,232                51,724               2.9                2.0                4.9
UGM 133A Trident II (D-5) Missile
Small Diameter Bomb (SDB)                         4,696                4,702              -0.1               -0.1                -0.1
Increment II
Space Based Infrared System                     18,339                 4,597             299.0              13.2                61.6
(SBIRS) High Program
Space Based Space Surveillance                      972                  872              11.4                3.8               11.4
(SBSS) Block 10
Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) Extended                6,297                5,700              10.5                1.2               13.8
Range Active Missile (ERAM)
Stryker Family of Vehicles (Stryker)            18,213                 8,033             126.7               11.1               47.4




                                             Page 176                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                               Appendix III
                                               Current and First Full Cost Estimates for
                                               DOD’s 2011 Portfolio of Major Defense
                                               Acquisition Programs




(Continued From Previous Page)
Fiscal year 2012 dollars in millions
                                                                                    Change in total          Change in total      Change in total
                                                                                        acquisition         acquisition cost     acquisition cost
                                                                                     cost from first         within the past     within the past 5
                                            Current total          First full total    full estimate                   year                 years
Program                                  acquisition cost        acquisition cost          (percent)               (percent)             (percent)
V-22 Joint Services Advanced                        57,211                     40,099                42.7                0.5                      5.2
Vertical Lift Aircraft (OSPREY)
Vertical Take-off and Landing Tactical               2,615                         2,615              0.0                4.3                      0.0
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV)
Virginia Class Submarine (SSN 774)                  83,746                     60,449                38.5                0.4                     -6.0
Warfighter Information Network-                      6,053                         3,708             63.2              25.7                     63.2
Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 2
Warfighter Information Network-                     13,871                     16,368               -15.3                0.8                   -15.3
Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 3
Warfighter Information Network-                      4,505                         4,087             10.2              10.8                     10.2
Tactical (WIN-T) Increment I
Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS)                         3,674                         1,194           207.8                 1.7                    67.8
                                               Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.

                                               Notes: Data were obtained from DOD’s Selected Acquisition Reports, acquisition program baselines,
                                               and, in some cases, program offices. Percent change in total acquisition cost for the Littoral Combat
                                               Ship program is shown as “NA” because DOD reported incomplete baseline and cost data for the
                                               program through 2010.




                                               Page 177                                    GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix IV

Knowledge-Based Acquisition Practices                                                                        Appendx
                                                                                                                   IiV




              GAO’s prior work on best product-development practices found that
              successful programs take steps to gather knowledge that confirms that
              their technologies are mature, their designs stable, and their production
              processes are in control. Successful product developers ensure a high
              level of knowledge is achieved at key junctures in development. We
              characterize these junctures as knowledge points. The Related GAO
              Products section of this report includes references to the body of work that
              helped us identify these practices and apply them as criteria in weapon
              system reviews. The following summarizes these knowledge points and
              associated key practices.




              Knowledge Point 1: Technologies, time, funding, and other resources match
              customer needs. Decision to invest in product development
              Demonstrate technologies to a high readiness level—Technology Readiness Level 7—to
              ensure technologies will work in an operational environment
              Ensure that requirements for product increment are informed by preliminary design
              review using systems engineering process (such as prototyping of preliminary design)
              Establish cost and schedule estimates for product on the basis of knowledge from
              preliminary design using systems engineering tools (such as prototyping of preliminary
              design)
              Constrain development phase (5 to 6 years or less) for incremental development
              Ensure development phase fully funded (programmed in anticipation of milestone)
              Align program manager tenure to complete development phase
              Contract strategy that separates system integration and system demonstration activities
              Conduct independent cost estimate
              Conduct independent program assessment
              Conduct major milestone decision review for development start
              Knowledge Point 2: Design is stable and performs as expected. Decision to start
              building and testing production-representative prototypes
              Complete system critical design review
              Complete 90 percent of engineering design drawing packages
              Complete subsystem and system design reviews
              Demonstrate with system-level integrated prototype that design meets requirements
              Complete the failure modes and effects analysis
              Identify key system characteristics
              Identify critical manufacturing processes
              Establish reliability targets and growth plan on the basis of demonstrated reliability rates
              of components and subsystems




              Page 178                          GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix IV
Knowledge-Based Acquisition Practices




(Continued From Previous Page)
Conduct independent cost estimate
Conduct independent program assessment
Conduct major milestone decision review to enter system demonstration
Knowledge Point 3: Production meets cost, schedule, and quality targets. Decision
to produce first units for customer
Demonstrate manufacturing processes
Build and test production-representative prototypes to demonstrate product in intended
environment
Test production-representative prototypes to achieve reliability goal
Collect statistical process control data
Demonstrate that critical processes are capable and in statistical control
Conduct independent cost estimate
Conduct independent program assessment
Conduct major milestone decision review to begin production
Source: GAO.




Page 179                           GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix V

Technology Readiness Levels                                                                                                                    Append
                                                                                                                                                    x
                                                                                                                                                    i
                                                                                                                                                    V




Technology Readiness Level         Description                                   Hardware/software            Demonstration environment
1.   Basic principles observed     Lowest level of technology readiness.         None (paper studies and      None
     and reported                  Scientific research begins to be              analysis)
                                   translated into applied research and
                                   development. Examples might include
                                   paper studies of a technology’s basic
                                   properties.
2.   Technology concept and/or     Invention begins. Once basic principles None (paper studies and            None
     application formulated        are observed, practical applications can analysis)
                                   be invented. The application is
                                   speculative and there is no proof or
                                   detailed analysis to support the
                                   assumption. Examples are still limited
                                   to paper studies.
3.   Analytical and experimental   Active research and development is            Analytical studies and    Lab
     critical function and/or      initiated. This includes analytical           demonstration of nonscale
     characteristic proof of       studies and laboratory studies to             individual components
     concept                       physically validate analytical predictions    (pieces of subsystem)
                                   of separate elements of the technology.
                                   Examples include components that are
                                   not yet integrated or representative.
4.   Component and/or              Basic technological components are            Low-fidelity breadboard.     Lab
     breadboard validation in      integrated to establish that the pieces       Integration of nonscale
     laboratory environment        will work together. This is relatively “low   components to show
                                   fidelity” compared to the eventual            pieces will work together.
                                   system. Examples include integration of       Not fully functional or form
                                   “ad hoc” hardware in a laboratory.            or fit but representative of
                                                                                 technically feasible
                                                                                 approach suitable for flight
                                                                                 articles.
5.   Component and/or              Fidelity of breadboard technology             High-fidelity breadboard.    Lab demonstrating
     breadboard validation in      increases significantly. The basic            Functionally equivalent      functionality but not form and
     relevant environment          technological components are                  but not necessarily form     fit. May include flight
                                   integrated with reasonably realistic          and/or fit (size, weight,    demonstrating breadboard in
                                   supporting elements so that the               materials, etc). Should be   surrogate aircraft. Technology
                                   technology can be tested in a simulated       approaching appropriate      ready for detailed design
                                   environment. Examples include “high-          scale. May include           studies.
                                   fidelity” laboratory integration of           integration of several
                                   components.                                   components with
                                                                                 reasonably realistic
                                                                                 support
                                                                                 elements/subsystems to
                                                                                 demonstrate functionality.




                                              Page 180                             GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                               Appendix V
                                               Technology Readiness Levels




(Continued From Previous Page)
Technology Readiness Level           Description                                            Hardware/software                        Demonstration environment
6.    System/subsystem model         Representative model or prototype                      Prototype. Should be very                High-fidelity lab demonstration
      or prototype demonstration     system, which is well beyond the                       close to form, fit, and                  or limited/restricted flight
      in a relevant environment      breadboard tested for TRL 5, is tested                 function. Probably                       demonstration for a relevant
                                     in a relevant environment. Represents                  includes the integration of              environment. Integration of
                                     a major step up in a technology’s                      many new components                      technology is well defined.
                                     demonstrated readiness. Examples                       and realistic supporting
                                     include testing a prototype in a high-                 elements/subsystems if
                                     fidelity laboratory environment or in                  needed to demonstrate
                                     simulated realistic environment.                       full functionality of the
                                                                                            subsystem.
7.    System prototype               Prototype near or at planned                           Prototype. Should be                     Flight demonstration in
      demonstration in a realistic   operational system. Represents a major                 form, fit, and function                  representative realistic
      environment                    step up from TRL 6, requiring the                      integrated with other key                environment such as flying
                                     demonstration of an actual system                      supporting                               test bed or demonstrator
                                     prototype in a realistic environment,                  elements/subsystems to                   aircraft. Technology is well
                                     such as in an aircraft, a vehicle, or                  demonstrate full                         substantiated with test data.
                                     space. Examples include testing the                    functionality of subsystem.
                                     prototype in a test bed aircraft.
8.    Actual system completed        Technology has been proven to work in Flight-qualified hardware                                 Developmental Test and
      and “flight qualified” through its final form and under expected                                                               Evaluation (DT&E) in the
      test and demonstration         conditions. In almost all cases, this TRL                                                       actual system application.
                                     represents the end of true system
                                     development. Examples include
                                     developmental test and evaluation of
                                     the system in its intended weapon
                                     system to determine if it meets design
                                     specifications.
9.    Actual system “flight          Actual application of the technology in                Actual system in final form Operational Test and
      proven” through successful     its final form and under mission                                                   Evaluation (OT&E) in
      mission operations             conditions, such as those encountered                                              operational mission
                                     in operational test and evaluation. In                                             conditions.
                                     almost all cases, this is the end of the
                                     last “bug fixing” aspects of true system
                                     development. Examples include using
                                     the system under operational mission
                                     conditions.
                                               Source: GAO and its analysis of National Aeronautics and Space Administration data.




                                               Page 181                                        GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix VI

Comments from the Department of Defense                                     Appendx
                                                                                  iI
                                                                                  V




              Page 182   GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix VI
Comments from the Department of Defense




Page 183                       GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
Appendix VII

GAO Contact and Acknowledgments                                                                                                 Append
                                                                                                                                     x
                                                                                                                                     iI
                                                                                                                                     V




GAO Contact                                   Michael J. Sullivan, (202) 512-4841 or sullivanm@gao.gov



Acknowledgments                               Principal contributors to this report were Ronald E. Schwenn, Assistant
                                              Director; J. Kristopher Keener; Deanna R. Laufer; Jenny Shinn; and
                                              Wendy P. Smythe. Other key contributors included Letisha Antone, David
                                              B. Best, Maricela Cherveny, Bruce D. Fairbairn, Arthur Gallegos, William
                                              R. Graveline, Kristine R. Hassinger, Julia M. Kennon, C. James Madar,
                                              Jean L. McSween, Diana L. Moldafsky, Kenneth E. Patton, Scott Purdy,
                                              Rae Ann H. Sapp, Roxanna T. Sun, and Bruce H. Thomas.

                                              The following were responsible for individual programs:




System                                                                         Primary staff
Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) Satellite                             Bradley L. Terry
AGM-88 Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile (AARGM)                          Scott Purdy, Christopher R. Durbin
Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR)                                           Ioan T. Ifrim, W. Kendal Roberts
Airborne and Maritime/Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System (AMF JTRS)     Paul G. Williams
Apache Block IIIA (AB3A)                                                       Helena Brink, Andrea M. Bivens
Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD)                                 Carol T. Mebane, Matt Shaffer
B-2 Defensive Management System (DMS) Modernization                            Matthew P. Lea
B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 1                    Sean D. Merrill, Don M. Springman
B-2 Extremely High Frequency SATCOM Capability, Increment 2                    Don M. Springman, Sean D. Merrill
BMDS: Aegis Ashore                                                             Ann F. Rivlin, Luis E. Rodriguez
BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IB              Luis Rodriguez, Ann F. Rivlin
BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IIA             Ann F. Rivlin, Luis Rodriguez
BMDS: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Standard Missile-3 Block IIB             Ann F. Rivlin, Luis Rodriguez
BMDS: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)                                     Steven B. Stern
BMDS: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)                              LaTonya D. Miller
C-130 Avionics Modernization Program (AMP)                                     Cheryl K. Andrew, Kathy Hubbell
CH-53K - Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR)                                          Robert K. Miller, Marvin E. Bonner
Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH)                                                 Jessica A. Drucker, J. Andrew Walker
Common Infrared Countermeasures (CIRCM)                                        Danny G. Owens
Common Vertical Lift Support Platform (CVLSP)                                  Travis J. Masters, Robert K. Miller
CVN 78 Class                                                                   Robert P. Bullock, W. Kendal Roberts




                                              Page 184                       GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                              Appendix VII
                                              GAO Contact and Acknowledgments




(Continued From Previous Page)
System                                                                          Primary staff
DDG 1000 Destroyer                                                              Gavin Ugale, Deanna R. Laufer
DDG 51 Destroyer                                                                C. James Madar, G. Michael Mikota
E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (E-2D AHE)                                                Jeffrey L. Hartnett, Teague A. Lyons
Enhanced Polar System (EPS)                                                     Bradley L. Terry
Excalibur Precision Guided Extended Range Artillery Projectile                  Wendy P. Smythe
Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV)                                            MacKenzie H. Cooper, Jerry W. Clark
F-22 Modernization Increment 3.2B                                               Sean Seales, Marvin E. Bonner
F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter)                                        LeAnna Parkey, Charlie Shivers
Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals (FAB-T)                       Alexandra K. Dew
Global Hawk (RQ-4A/B)                                                           Laura Jezewski, Rae Ann H. Sapp
Global Positioning System (GPS) III                                             Laura T. Holliday
GPS III OCX Ground Control Segment                                              Arturo Holguin, Jr.
Gray Eagle Unmanned Aircraft System                                             Tana M. Davis
Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV)                                                     Marcus C. Ferguson
HC/MC-130 Recapitalization Program                                              Brian T. Smith, Christopher R. Durbin
Integrated Defensive Electronic Countermeasures (IDECM) Block 4                 James Kim, Christopher R. Durbin
Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM)                                              Carrie W. Rogers, Greg Campbell
Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range (JASSM-ER)                 John W. Crawford, Michael J. Hesse
Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV)                                                  Jenny Shinn, J. Kristopher Keener
Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System          John M. Ortiz
(JLENS)
Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)                                             Dayna L. Foster
Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS)                             Stephen V. Marchesani, Sally Williamson
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Ground Mobile Radios (GMR)                   Ann Marie Udale, Guisseli Reyes-Turnell
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Handheld, Manpack, and Small Form Fit        Nathan A. Tranquilli, David A. Garcia
(HMS)
KC-46 Tanker Replacement Program                                                Wendel K. Hudson, Mary Jo Lewnard
LHA Replacement Amphibious Assault Ship                                         Celina F. Davidson, Ramzi N. Nemo
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)                                                      Rebecca A. Wilson, Molly W. Traci
Littoral Combat Ship–Mission Modules                                            Laurier R. Fish, Mya Dinh, Gwyneth B. Woolwine
Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)                                             Richard Y. Horiuchi, Desirée E. Cunningham
MQ-4C Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) Unmanned Aircraft System          W. William Russell IV, Tom Twambly, Joseph Fread
(UAS)
Navy Multiband Terminal (NMT)                                                   Lisa P. Gardner
Nett Warrior                                                                    William C. Allbritton
Ohio-Class Replacement (OR)                                                     C. James Madar, G. Michael Mikota
P-8A Poseidon                                                                   Kathryn M. Edelman, Lina J. Khan




                                              Page 185                     GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
                                             Appendix VII
                                             GAO Contact and Acknowledgments




(Continued From Previous Page)
System                                                                         Primary staff
Patriot/Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) Combined Aggregate          Ryan D. Stott, Carol T. Mebane
Program (CAP) Fire Unit
Presidential Helicopter (VXX)                                                  Teakoe S. Coleman, Jerry W. Clark
Reaper Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)                                          Rae Ann H. Sapp, Laura Jezewski
Ship to Shore Connector (SSC)                                                  Meghan Hardy, Molly W. Traci
Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) Increment II                                         Michael J. Hesse, John W. Crawford
Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High Program                               Claire Buck
Space Fence                                                                    Peter E. Zwanzig, Maricela Cherveny
Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) Extended Range Active Missile (ERAM)                 Angie Nichols-Friedman, Wiktor Niewiadomski
Three Dimensional Expeditionary Long Range Radar (3DELRR)                      Claire Li, Janet McKelvey
Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike System (UCLASS) Julie C. Hadley, Travis J. Masters
Vertical Take-off and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV)         Leigh Ann Nally, John Lack
Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 2                    James P. Tallon, Laurier R. Fish
Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) Increment 3                    James P. Tallon, Laurier R. Fish
                                             Source: GAO.




                                             Page 186                      GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
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(120990)   Page 188                  GAO-12-400SP Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs
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