oversight

Army National Guard: Planned Conversions Are a Positive Step, but Unvalidated Combat Forces Remain

Published by the Government Accountability Office on 1997-01-29.

Below is a raw (and likely hideous) rendition of the original report. (PDF)

                    United States General Accounting Office

GAO                 Briefing Report to Congressional
                    Requesters



January 1997
                    ARMY NATIONAL
                    GUARD
                    Planned Conversions
                    Are a Positive Step, but
                    Unvalidated Combat
                    Forces Remain




GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR
             United States
GAO          General Accounting Office
             Washington, D.C. 20548

             National Security and
             International Affairs Division

             B-275525

             January 29, 1997

             The Honorable John R. Kasich
             Chairman, Committee on the Budget
             House of Representatives

             The Honorable Steve Buyer
             Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Personnel
             Committee on National Security
             House of Representatives

             The Honorable Owen Pickett
             House of Representatives

             Previous GAO reports1 and the Department of Defense (DOD) report of the
             Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces2 discussed the
             need to make better use of reserve forces. We reviewed the Army National
             Guard Division Redesign Study to determine how the study addressed this
             need. We recently briefed your staff on these issues. The information we
             provided at those briefings is detailed in the sections following this letter.


             By the end of fiscal year 1999, the Army National Guard plans to have
Background   367,000 personnel in 54 separate state and territorial military commands in
             the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands,
             and Guam. This number includes about 187,000 personnel organized into
             8 combat divisions that include 3 brigades each, 15 enhanced brigades, and
             3 separate combat units, consisting of 2 separate brigades and a scout
             group. In addition to the combat units, the Guard has elements that
             support combat units, such as engineers, military police, military
             intelligence, and transportation. The Guard is to be organized and
             resourced for federal wartime missions but is also available to fulfill state
             missions.

             As we mentioned in our March 1996 report, war planners and DOD and
             Army studies noted that many Guard combat units are not needed to meet
             the national security strategy of fighting and winning two nearly

             1
              Army Force Structure: Future Reserve Roles Shaped by New Strategy, Base Force Mandates, and Gulf
             War (GAO/NSIAD-93-80, Dec. 15, 1992); Force Structure: Army National Guard Divisions Could
             Augment Wartime Support Capability (GAO/NSIAD-95-80, Mar. 2, 1995); and Army National Guard:
             Validate Requirements for Combat Forces and Size Those Forces Accordingly (GAO/NSIAD-96-63,
             Mar. 14, 1996).
             2
              Report of the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces, DOD (Arlington, Va.: 1995).



             Page 1                                               GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                   B-275525




                   simultaneous major regional conflicts. According to DOD documents and
                   Army officials, these excess forces are assigned to secondary missions
                   such as providing wartime rotational forces, serving as a deterrent hedge
                   to future adversarial regimes, and supporting civil authorities at home.

                   Both the Commission’s report and our March 1996 report recommended
                   that DOD determine the number of Guard combat spaces that are needed;
                   use unneeded spaces to fill needed, but unresourced, support
                   requirements; and eliminate the excess. In response to our
                   recommendations, DOD stated that the Army National Guard Division
                   Redesign Study and other studies being conducted by the Office of the
                   Secretary of Defense, Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation and the
                   Joint Chiefs of Staff would address these issues.


                   The Army National Guard Division Redesign Study developed an option
Results in Brief   that provides for the conversion of some Guard combat and supporting
                   forces to fill needed, but unresourced, support requirements. This planned
                   conversion is a step in the right direction. However, neither this study nor
                   the studies from the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Office of Program Analysis
                   and Evaluation deal with the critical issues of validating the need for the
                   remaining Guard combat structure and eliminating any excess forces. As a
                   result, the studies leave substantial Guard structure in place that has no
                   valid war-fighting mission. According to DOD and Joint Staff officials,
                   however, the Quadrennial Defense Review may consider them.3

                   The Army National Guard Division Redesign Study working group
                   (chartered by the Army’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans)
                   and a parallel study group (the Guard’s Division Project Action
                   Committee) considered several options to redesign the Guard combat
                   divisions to fill support requirements. Three of these options were
                   evaluated to determine initial costs and feasibility.

                   A General Officers Working Group then selected the option to convert 2 of
                   the Guard’s combat divisions and 6 combat brigades—about
                   42,700 spaces—into required support spaces. This option also allows the
                   Guard to keep the other six combat divisions, minus three combat
                   brigades, and create two new divisions with each division containing three
                   enhanced brigades and an active duty administrative headquarters. The
                   study’s preliminary estimates are that it would take about $2.8 billion to

                   3
                    This review, established in the Fiscal Year 1997 Defense Authorization Act, is to be a comprehensive
                   examination of the defense program and policies.



                   Page 2                                                 GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                 B-275525




                 convert these combat spaces and could take from 10 to 29 years,
                 depending upon annual funding, to complete the conversion. However, the
                 Army does not plan to begin this conversion until it has purchased all the
                 equipment needed to convert another 66,000 active and reserve support
                 spaces, identified through another Army analysis, into required support
                 spaces. The total cost for this first conversion effort is an estimated
                 $2.6 billion. The final costs and implementation time frame for the Division
                 Redesign Study and the feasibility of the new divisions are still being
                 evaluated and will not be addressed in this report. According to Army
                 officials, preliminary results from the cost evaluation indicate that costs
                 could be less than originally estimated.


                 We recommend that the Secretary of Defense, as he guides the
Recommendation   Quadrennial Defense Review, direct that the review process validate
                 requirements for Guard combat structure. We further recommend that,
                 once this validation is complete, the Secretary of Defense, in concert with
                 the Secretary of the Army, eliminate any structure beyond that which is
                 needed to carry out the national security strategy.


                 To assess DOD’s and the Army’s efforts to redesign the Guard combat
Scope and        divisions, we interviewed cognizant officials and obtained and analyzed
Methodology      the Army National Guard Division Redesign Study and other relevant
                 documents from DOD; the Army; the Army National Guard; the Joint Chiefs
                 of Staff; Calibre Systems, Inc.; and DOD’s Commission on Roles and
                 Missions.

                 We requested written comments from DOD, but none were provided. We
                 discussed the information in this report with cognizant officials and have
                 made changes where appropriate.

                 We conducted this review from August to November 1996 in accordance
                 with generally accepted government auditing standards.


                 We are providing copies of this report to appropriate House and Senate
                 committees; the Secretaries of Defense and the Army; the Director of the
                 Army National Guard; and the Director, Office of Management and Budget.
                 We will also provide copies to other interested parties upon request.




                 Page 3                                   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
B-275525




Please contact me at (202) 512-3504 if you or your staff have any questions
concerning this report. The major contributors to this report were Robert
Pelletier, Ann Borseth, and Lisa Quinn.




Richard Davis
Director, National Security
  Analysis




Page 4                                  GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Page 5   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Contents



Letter                                                                                           1


Briefing Section I                                                                               8
                       Previous Studies Call for Changes to Guard Combat Divisions               8
Background
Briefing Section II                                                                             10
                       Army Vice Chief of Staff Chartered Redesign Working Group                10
The Army National      Two Groups Conduct Study by Using a Three-Phased Approach                12
Guard Division         Phase One: Options Developed for Alternative Force Structure             14
                       Phase One: Three Options                                                 16
Redesign Study         Phase Two: Detailed Cost Analysis                                        18
                       Decisions Reached Prior to Phase Three                                   20
                       Phase Three: Feasibility Analysis                                        22
                       Comparison of Options                                                    24

Briefing Section III                                                                            26
                       Working Group Selects Option One                                         26
The Decision           Illustrative Time Frames for Implementation                              28

Briefing Section IV                                                                             30
                       Studies Did Not Address All of Previous Recommendations                  30
Response to Prior
Recommendations




                       Abbreviations

                       DOD       Department of Defense
                       DIVPAC    Division Project Action Committee
                       DCSOPS    Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans
                       JCS       Joint Chiefs of Staff
                       PA&E      Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation


                       Page 6                                 GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Page 7   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section I

Background




       GAO           Previous Studies Call for Changes to
                     Guard Combat Divisions
                     RAND study: large percentage of Guard
                     not needed for state requirements
                     1996 GAO report and Commission
                     study:
                       No wartime mission for eight Guard
                       combat divisions
                       Eight divisions too large for secondary
                       missions



                             By the end of fiscal year 1999, the Army National Guard plans to have
                             367,000 personnel in 54 separate state and territorial military commands in
                             the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands,
                             and Guam. This number includes about 187,000 personnel organized into
                             8 combat divisions that include 3 brigades each; 15 enhanced brigades; and
                             3 separate combat units, consisting of 2 separate brigades and a scout
                             group. In addition to the combat units, the Guard has elements that




                             Page 8                                    GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section I
Background




support combat units, such as engineers, military police, military
intelligence, and transportation.

According to Guard policy, the Guard is to be organized and resourced for
federal wartime missions but is also available to fulfill state missions.
According to a recent study by RAND’s National Defense Research
Institute,4 the Guard over the last decade has used only a small percentage
of its total personnel to meet state requirements. RAND also reported that,
nationally, state demands on the Guard are not significant. RAND
concluded that, even in a peak use year, state missions would not require a
large portion of the Guard.

As we reported in our March 1996 report,5 war planners and Department
of Defense (DOD) studies stated that the eight combat divisions are not
needed to meet the national security strategy of fighting and winning two
nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts. According to DOD’s 1993
Report on the Bottom-Up Review, these forces are assigned to fill
secondary missions such as providing wartime rotational forces, serving as
a deterrent hedge to future adversarial regimes, and supporting civil
authorities at home.

However, the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces
reported that eight Guard combat divisions are too large a force for these
secondary missions and concluded that reserve component forces with
lower priority tasks should be eliminated or reorganized to fill shortfalls in
higher priority areas. It also concluded that even after filling the shortfalls,
the total Army would still have more combat spaces than required and
recommended that these should be eliminated from the active or reserve
components.

In response to the recommendations in our March 1996 report, DOD stated
that the Army National Guard Division Redesign Study and other studies
being conducted by the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Office of
Program Analysis and Evaluation and the Joint Chiefs of Staff would
address these issues.




4
 Assessing the State and Federal Missions of the National Guard, RAND, (Santa Monica, Calif.: 1995).
5
 Army National Guard: Validate Requirements for Combat Forces and Size Those Forces Accordingly
(GAO/NSIAD-96-63, Mar. 14, 1996).



Page 9                                                 GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II

The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study


       GAO            Army Vice Chief of Staff Chartered
                      Redesign Working Group
                      In part, the Group was to
                         develop options for changing Guard structure to
                         meet future Army requirements
                         prioritize options for senior Army leadership
                      In part, the Group was not to
                         change the number of Guard headquarters
                         change force structure and end strength
                         allowance
                         eliminate ability to respond to state missions




                                 Page 10                   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




The Vice Chief of Staff of the Army signed a charter on May 16, 1995, that
established the Army National Guard Division Redesign General Officer
Working Group. According to the Group’s charter, the Group was formed
because the Army is in critically short supply of support forces but
continues to maintain Guard combat units that are excess to war-fighting
requirements.

The purpose of the Working Group was to (1) review the Army’s future
unresourced support requirements, (2) review the structure and missions
of the Guard combat elements and develop options for changing Guard
structure to meet future Army requirements, (3) conduct a resource
feasibility assessment of the options, and, (4) refine and prioritize the
options for presentation to the senior Army leadership. The guiding
principles of the Group, in part, were to (1) not cause a reduction in the
number of Guard division headquarters, (2) operate within existing Guard
force structure and end strength, and (3) consider the Guard’s need to
respond to state missions.

Members of the Working Group included the Deputy Chief of Staff for
Operations and Plans (DCSOPS); the Assistant Secretary of the Army for
Manpower and Reserve Affairs; the Director, Army National Guard; the
Chief, Army Reserve; the Chief of Staff, Training and Doctrine Command;
the Director of Operations, Forces Command; and representatives from
the Office of the Inspector General, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics,
and the Office of the Director, Program Analysis and Evaluation. The Ohio
Adjutant General, whose role was to act as spokesman for the
54 Adjutants General, was added after approval of the charter and study
plan. According to Guard officials, this was the first time that the Guard
had been invited to sit on a general officer working group to discuss issues
affecting the Guard.




Page 11                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                 Briefing Section II
                 The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                 Study




GAO   Two Groups Conduct Study by Using a
      Three-Phased Approach
      Two groups
        Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and
        Plans
        Army National Guard Division Project Action
        Committee
      Three-phased approach established by the Working
      Group
       develop options
       analyze one-time and recurring costs
       analyze feasibility




                 Page 12                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




Two groups worked on options to redesign the Guard combat divisions.
One group, under the direction of the Army’s DCSOPS, was composed of a
working council of colonels and members of the Working Group. The
second group, the Army National Guard Division Project Action
Committee (DIVPAC), was composed of the 54 Adjutants General,
representing each state and territory, and the commanders of the 8 Guard
combat divisions.

The Working Group established a three-phased study protocol by which
the two groups would conduct their studies. During the first phase, the
two groups were to develop several options for alternative force structures
that would reduce the unresourced support shortfall and add relevance to
the remaining Guard force structure without violating the guiding
principles of the charter.6 Once the options had been developed, they
would be narrowed to those options that would be presented to the
Working Group. The Group would then recommend which options would
proceed to phase two of the study. In phase two, the one-time and
recurring costs associated with implementing the options were to be
developed and analyzed. In phase three, the results from the other phases,
along with other relevant criteria to determine the feasibility of
implementing the recommended options, would be analyzed. From this
phase, a final option would be chosen and briefed to senior Army
leadership for a decision and implementation.




6
 As defined in the study’s final report, “relevance” means to “enhance warfighting capabilities of
America’s Army.” This includes the missions of supporting the two major regional contingency
scenario, providing a deterrent hedge, and enhancing mobilization.



Page 13                                                 GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                Briefing Section II
                The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                Study




GAO   Phase One: Options Developed for
      Alternative Force Structure
      DCSOPS developed 11 options
        2 of the 11 options proceeded to phase two
      DIVPAC developed 9 options
        1 option proceeded to phase two




                Page 14                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




Using a baseline force of 8 Guard divisions, 3 separate combat units, and
15 enhanced brigades, the first phase of the study focused on developing a
broad range of options for consideration by the Working Group. Both
study groups used certain design considerations that were developed early
on. Specifically, the groups were to focus on enhancing the war-fighting
capability of America’s Army, reduce the unresourced support shortfall,
provide a force that could respond to operations other than war, address
war-fight requirements of the Commanders in Chief of the Unified
Commands, and meet state-unique requirements where possible. Building
a force to respond to operations other than war was later removed as a
design consideration.

Using these design considerations, the DCSOPS study team developed
11 options and the DIVPAC developed 9. The DCSOPS study team presented
their 11 options to the Working Group, which then chose 2 of the 11 for
further consideration. The DIVPAC analyzed their 9 options by measuring
them against a weighted criteria, ultimately choosing one option to be
presented to the Working Group for further consideration and evaluation.
Finally, three options—one DIVPAC option and two DCSOPS options—were
approved by the Working Group for further cost analysis in phase two of
the study. All three options provided structure to reduce the unresourced
support shortfall and assigned missions that could add to the relevance of
the remaining Guard structure, as defined by the study’s final report.




Page 15                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                                       Briefing Section II
                                       The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                                       Study




GAO        Phase One: Three Options

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                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                        A
                                                                                                        AA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                          AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                               AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAA



                xx                                                                                 AAAA  xx
                                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                        AAAAAAAA
                                       xx                                                                                    xx
           AAAA
           AAAAAAAA
                AAAAAAA
                     AAA         AAAA
                                 AAAAAAAA
                                      AAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA                                                               AAAA       AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAAAAAA
           AAAA
            AAAAAAAA
                 AAAAAAA
                      AAAA       AAAA
                                   AAAA AAAA
                                      AAAAAAAA
                                            AAAA                                                   AAAA
                                                                                                   AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA       AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
              As-Is
           AAAA
            AAAA AAAA
                AAAA AAA
                      AAAA          CA
                                 AAAA
                                   AAAA AAAA
                                      AAAAAAAA
                                            AAAA                                                   AAAA                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                   AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                      OPFOR                       AAAA
            AAAA
           AAAA
           AAAA
            AAAA
                 AAAA
                AAAA
                 AAAA
                AAAA
                     AAAA
                     AAA
                      AAAA
                     AAAA
                     AAA AAAA
                      AAAA
                         AAAA
                                 AAAA
                                   AAAA
                                 AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                   AAAA
                                        AAAA
                                          AAAA
                                        AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                          AAAAAAAA
                                            AAAA
                                               AAAA                                                          AAAA       AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                          OOTW    AAAA
Option      AAAA
           AAAA  AAAA
                AAAA AAA
                      AAAA
                     AAAAAAAA    AAAA
                                   AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                        AAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA      Option                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                   AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                             AAAA       AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
           AAAA
            AAAA AAAA
                AAAA AAAA
                     AAA
                      AAAA
                         AAAA    AAAA
                                   AAAA AAAA
                                     AAAA AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                               AAAA                                                AAAA                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                        AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAAAAAA
           AAAA
            AAAA
            AAAA
                 AAAA
                AAAA
                AAAA
                 AAAAAAAA
                     AAA
                      AAAA
                         AAAA
                      AAAA
                     AAAAAAAA      AAAA AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                   AAAA   AAAA
                                        AAAAAAAA
                                               AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA                                                          AAAA
two         AAAAAAAA
                 AAAA
                AAAA AAAAAAAA
                      AAAA         AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                        AAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA      three
                AAAAAAAAAAAA
                     AAAA AAAA       AAAA
                                     AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA                                      xxAAAA
                                                                                  AAAAAAAA                 xx AAAA
                                                                                                     AAAAAAAA               xx
(DCSOPS)                                                 (DCSOPS)                 AAAA
                                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                            AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                     AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                          AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                               AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                  AAAAAAAA  AAAA     AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                          AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA AAAA
                AAAA xx AAAA
                     AAAA                   xx                                    AAAA  CAAAAA       AAAARSOI  AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                AAAA
                AAAAAAAA
                     AAAAAAAA
                         AAAA        AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                     AAAAAAAA                                     AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                       AAAA AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                     AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                          AAAA AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                            As-Is
                                                                                                                             AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA
                AAAA AAAAAAAA        AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                               AAAA                               AAAA
                                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                            AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                     AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                          AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA
                AAAA AAAA
                  OPFOR
                AAAA AAAAAAAA
                         AAAA        AAAA
                                     AAAA AAAA
                                         RSOI
                                          AAAA AAAA
                                               AAAA                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA
                AAAA AAAAAAAA        AAAA AAAA AAAA                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA
                AAAA
                AAAAAAAAAAAA
                     AAAAAAAA        AAAA
                                     AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAA




                                       Legend: xx - division; x - brigade; EB - enhanced brigade; CA - combined arms; AC - active
                                       component; NG - National Guard; OPFOR - opposing force; RSOI - reception, staging, onward
                                       movement, and integration; OOTW - operations other than war.




                                       Page 16                                                        GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




The three options selected by the Working Group were as follows:

Option one, developed by the DIVPAC, contains the following: three Guard
divisions that remain in their current configuration and could be used as a
deterrent hedge; three Guard divisions that replace one division maneuver
brigade with an enhanced brigade; two Guard divisions that would be
converted from combat divisions into combined arms divisions with one
combat maneuver brigade and various support units; two new active
component/Guard divisions, each containing an active component
headquarters and three Guard enhanced brigades as maneuver brigades;
two enhanced brigades that remain in their current configuration; four
active component divisions, each having an integrated enhanced brigade;
and six Guard combined arms brigades converted from the three separate
combat units and the three divisional maneuver brigades. Additionally, this
option provided that the missions of 6,600 active component support
spaces would migrate to the Guard.

Option two, developed by the DCSOPS group, contains the following: three
Guard divisions in their current configuration; three Guard combined arms
divisions; one Guard reception, staging, onward movement, and
integration division;7 and one Guard opposing force division, which would
help train the enhanced brigades during mobilization. The 15 enhanced
brigades and 2 of the 3 separate combat units remain stand-alone entities
and are not shown in the previous chart. The third separate unit is used as
a maneuver brigade in a combined arms division.

Option three, also developed by the DCSOPS group, contains the following:
four Guard divisions in their current configuration; one Guard combined
arms division; one Guard reception, staging, onward movement, and
integration division; one Guard opposing force division; and one Guard
division to respond to operations other than war. As in option two, the
15 enhanced brigades and 2 of the 3 separate combat units remain
stand-alone entities and are not shown in the previous chart. The third
separate unit is again used as a maneuver brigade in a combined arms
division.




7
 A reception, staging, onward movement, and integration division assists in the deployment process.
The structure is similar to the combined arms division, but without the maneuver brigade.



Page 17                                               GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                           Briefing Section II
                           The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                           Study




GAO       Phase Two: Detailed Cost Analysis


FY96 dollars in millions

                                     Option one                      Option two                    Option three

Total one-time costs a         $2,506 - $2,842               $2,651 -$2,876                  $1,725 - $1,979


Recurring costs b                            ($64)                            ($65)                             $6.8




 The Working Group stated that the lowest cost option would not
 necessarily be the best alternative




                           a
                             One-time costs were calculated two different ways: (1) with equipment substitutions and
                           (2) without equipment substitutions.
                           b
                           These reductions in recurring costs will not be realized until implementation is complete.




                           Page 18                                               GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




The cost analysis conducted on the three options considered one-time
costs (such as procurement, retraining, facilities, and second destination
transportation costs) and recurring costs (such as annual operating costs).
According to Army and Guard officials, the analysis was done by the
Army’s contractor, Calibre Systems, Inc., to provide a consistent analysis
for both options.

The contractor calculated the one-time procurement costs in two ways.
First, it allowed for the use of equipment on hand that matched the
requirement of the new unit, with no substitutions, and computed the
purchase cost of new equipment to fill the remaining requirements.
Second, it allowed for the use of equipment on hand that matched or could
be substituted for the new unit’s equipment requirements and computed
the purchase cost of new equipment to fill the remaining requirements.
The second calculation produced the lower estimate. Both cost estimates
were presented in the final assessment.

The contractor did not consider those offsets that could be achieved by
(1) using equipment that was excess to the new unit’s requirements to fill
other Army requirements, (2) selling the excess equipment through foreign
military sales, and (3) using equipment passed to the Guard from
inactivated units or programmed for units through the modernization
process.

The first two options were both less expensive to operate annually,8 but
their one-time costs were greater. The third option was the most expensive
option to operate annually but would have incurred lower one-time costs.
However, the Working Group had decided that cost would be treated as an
independent variable and that the lowest cost option would not
necessarily be the best alternative.




8
Prior to the analysis, the Working Group directed the contractor to exclude the cost impact of the
migration of missions for 6,600 support spaces that were included as part of option one.



Page 19                                                GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                          Briefing Section II
                          The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                          Study




GAO     Decisions Reached Prior to Phase
        Three
                                                                                                         xx
                                                                                                      AAAA              xx
                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
Option three was eliminated from consideration                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAA AAAA      AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA       AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                        OPFOR         OOTW
                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA       AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                           AAAA      AAAAAAAA
                                                           Option three
                                                                                          AAAAxx
                                                                                               AAAA    AAAAxx
                                                                                                            AAAA        xxAAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAA
                                                                                          AAAA AAAA    AAAA AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                           (DCSOPS)                       AAAACA
                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                               AAAA    AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                         RSOI        AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                          AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA     AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                       As-Is AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                               AAAA    AAAAAAAA         AAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                          AAAAAAAA
                                                                                               AAAA    AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                     AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA



Option one was modified. The four integrated enhanced
brigades were deleted from the active component divisions and
retained as stand-alone brigades
                                        AAAAxx
                                             AAAAAA                    xx AA
                   AAAAxx
                        AAAAAAAA        AAAAAAAAAA                AAAA AAAA                xx AAA
                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                   AAAA
                     AAAA
                   AAAA AAAA
                     AAAA  AAAA
                        AAAA AA
                             AA
                           AAAA AA      AAAA
                                          AAAA
                                          As-AAAA
                                          AAAA
                                        AAAA   AAAA
                                              Is
                                            AAAA
                                             AAAA
                                               AAAA AAAAA
                                                   AAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAA        AAAA
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                    AAAA
                                                                         AAAA
                                                                       AAAA
                                                                       AAAA AAAAA
                                                                            AA
                                                                         AAAA  AAA    AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                        AC/NG    AAAAA
                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                                 AAA
                                                                                              AAAA  AA
                   AAAA
                     AAAA
                        AAAA
                     As-Is   AAAA
                             AA
                           AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                             AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAA      AAAACA
                                                                    AAAA AAAA
                                                                       AAAA AA AAA    AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA  AAAAA
                                                                                              AAAA
      Option one   AAAA
                     AAAA
                   AAAA AAAA
                           AAAA
                             AAAA
                             AA AA AA   AAAA
                                          AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                          w/1AAAA
                                               AAAA
                                              EB   AAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAA      AAAA
                                                                    AAAA
                                                                       AAAA
                                                                         AAAA
                                                                            AA AAA    AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                        w/3AAAA
                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                              EB AAAAA
                        AAAA
                     AAAA
                     AAAA
                        AAAA
                             AAAA
                             AA
                           AAAA
                           AAAA
                                AAAA AAAA
                             AAAA
                                AAAA
                                          AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                             AAAA
                                          AAAA AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                               AAAA
                                                   AAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                   AAAA
                                                      AAAAAA
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                    AAAA
                                                                       AAAA
                                                                    AAAA
                                                                         AAAA
                                                                            AAAAA AAAA
                                                                         AAAA  AAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                 AAA
                                                                                              AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                    AA AAAA
                                                                                              AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                    AA AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                     AAAA
                        AAAA AAAA
                           AAAA AA
                        AAAAAAAAAA AA     AAAA
                                            AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                      AAA
                                            AAAAAAAAAAA  AAA        AAAA AAAA  AAA      AAAA  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                    AA AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                            AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
      (DIVPAC)      AAAA
                    AAAA
                     AAAAxAAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAAAA
                               AA
                                AAA          AAAA     xx AA
                                                    AAAA                  AAAA  xAAAAAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                          6,600
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                   support
                                                                                                                 AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                    AAAA
                    AAAA
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                           AAAA
                        AAAA
                            AAAA
                          AAAA AA
                            AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAA
                                AAA
                             AAAA
                               AA AAA
                                AAA
                                  AAA
                                   AA
                                               AAAA
                                             AAAA
                                                AC w/
                                             AAAA
                                               AAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                    AAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                   AAAA
                                                    AAAA
                                                           AA
                                                            AAA
                                                         AAAA
                                                           AA
                                                            AAA
                                                              AAA
                                                                          AAAA
                                                                             AAAA
                                                                          AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                             AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA AAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                        AA
                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                      AAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                          AA
                                                                                           AA
                                                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAAAAAA  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                          migrates    AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAAAAAAAAAA   AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                         from   AAAAAAAA
                    AAAAEB
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAA
                            AAAA
                             AAAA
                               AAAA
                               AA
                                AAA
                                  AAA
                                   AA
                                    AA       AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                    AAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                         AAAA
                                                integrated AA
                                                            AAAA
                                                            AAA
                                                              AAAAA       AAAA
                                                                             AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                              CA AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                      AAA
                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA   AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA
                    AAAA
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAA
                            AAAA
                             AAAA
                               AAAA
                               AA
                                AAAA
                                AAA
                                  AAA
                                   AA
                                    AA
                                     AAA     AAAA
                                               AAAA
                                                EBAAAA
                                                    AAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                         AAAA
                                                           AA
                                                            AAAA
                                                            AAA
                                                              AAAAA       AAAA
                                                                             AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                      AAA
                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                              AA  AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA
                    AAAA
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAA
                            AAAA
                             AAAA
                               AAAA
                                AAAA
                                AAA
                               AA AAA
                                   AA
                                    AAAAA    AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                    AAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                         AAAA
                                                           AA
                                                            AAAA
                                                            AAA
                                                              AAAAA       AAAA
                                                                             AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                      AAA
                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                              AA  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                          ACAAAA
                                                                                                               toAAAA
                                                                                                                    NGAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA
                     AAAA
                      AAAA
                        AAAA
                      AAAAAAAA
                           AAAA
                        AAAAAAAA
                             AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAAAAAA
                            AAAAAAAA
                                AAA
                             AAAA AAA
                               AAAAAA
                                AAAAAA
                                  AAA
                                   AA
                                    AAAAA
                                      AAA      AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                      AAAA
                                                   AAAA  AAAA
                                                      AAAA  AAAA
                                                            AAA
                                                         AAAA AAA
                                                            AAAA
                                                            AAA
                                                              AAAAA
                                                                 AA          AAAA
                                                                               AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                                                        AA
                                                                                      AAAAAA
                                                                                       AAAAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                          AA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                              AA
                                                                                             AA
                                                                                              AA  AAAA
                                                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                       AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                           AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAAAAAA
                                AAAA
                             AAAA   AA
                                   AA AAA             AAAA  AAAA AA              AAAA
                                                                                  AAAA
                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA AAAA
                                                                                              AA  AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA
                          AAAA
                           AAAAAAAA
                                AAAAAA
                           AAAAAAAAAAAAAA                                         AAAA
                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                   AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                              AA  AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA




                          Page 20                                                           GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




Options one and two were selected by the Working Group to proceed to
phase three of the study. Option three was dropped from further
consideration because it reduced the support shortfall by the least amount
and contained a division created to respond to operations other than war.
The Working Group determined that this was a mission that could be
satisfied by a division remaining in its current configuration.

In addition, the DIVPAC modified their option by deleting the integration of
four enhanced brigades into four active component divisions. The four
enhanced brigades were to remain stand-alone brigades, thus retaining six
enhanced brigades in that status.




Page 21                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                                              Briefing Section II
                                              The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                                              Study




GAO            Phase Three: Feasibility Analysis

      xx                 AAAAxx
                              AAAA
                              AAAAA             xx              xx
  AAAA
  AAAA
      AAAAA
      AAAA
    AAAA  AAAA
            AA A         AAAA
                         AAAA
                          AAAA       AAA    AAAA AAAAA      AAAA AAAA
                                                                  AAAAAAAA              xx A                   xx AA
                           As-AAAA
                               IsAAAA
                                 AAAAA      AAAA
                                             AAAAAAAA
                                                  AAAAA
                                                      AA    AAAA
                                                             AAAAAAAA               AAAA
  AAAA
    AAAA
      AAAAAAAA    A      AAAA
                          AAAAAAAA   AAAA   AAAA
                                             AAAAAAAA
                                                  AAAA  A   AAAA
                                                             AAAAAAAA
                                                                  AAAA              AAAAAAAA               AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAAAAAA
                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                             AC/NG                       AAAAA             AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA
  AAAAAAAA
    AAAA
    As-Is
  AAAA
    AAAA
      AAAAAAAA
             AAAAAA
                  A A    AAAA
                          AAAA
                           w/1AAAA
                             AAAA
                               EBAAAA
                                   AAAA
                                     A
                                     AAA
                                               CAAAAA
                                            AAAA
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                                                      AA    AAAA
                                                             AAAAAAAA               AAAA
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                                                                                       As-Is  AA AAAA      AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                             CA AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAAAA
    AAAA
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          AAAA
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               A  A
                     A   AAAA
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                                                             w/3 EB                 AAAA
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                                                                                                                 AAAAAA
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                  A A
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                                 AAAAAAA
                                   AAAA A    AAAA
                                            AAAA AAAA
                                                 AAAAAA
                                                  AAAAA     AAAA
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                                                                                           AAAAAA AAAA
                                                                                            AAAA            AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                                           AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
  AAAA
    AAAA
      AAAAAAAA AAAAA A       AAAA
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                                                        A   AAAA
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                                                                  AAAAAA
                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                         AAAA
                                                                                      AAAA  AAAA
                                                                                           AAAA     AA     AAAA
                                                                                                            AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                                                AAAA
                                                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAAAA
    AAAA
      AAAA
      AAAAAAAA  AAAA
                  A  A    AAAA
                             AAAAAAAA AAA
                                   AAAA           AAAAA                               AAAA
                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                            AAAA   AAA      AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                                                   AAAAAA
                                                                                                                       AAAA
      AAAAAAAA  AAAAA
                     A       AAAA
                             AAAAAAAAA
                                   AAAA A                                             AAAA
                                                                                       AAAA
                                                                                       AAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                            AAAA    AA      AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAA
                                                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAAAAAA    AA
                                                                                                                          AA
         x                        x                                                                                  xx
   AAAA
    AAAA
   AAAAAAAA
    AAAA
     AAAAAAAA
       AAAA A
            AAA
         AAAA
          AAAAAA
               A              AAAA
                              AAAAAAAA
                               AAAA
                                  AAAA A
                                    AAAA
                                       AA                                                   AAAA
                                                                                            AAAAAAAA
                                                                                               xxAAAAAA
                                                                                                      AA         AAAA AAAAAA
   AAAA
    AAAA
     AAAA
      AAAA
      EB AAAA
          AAAA
       AAAAAAAA
            A AA
               AA              AAAA
                                AAAA
                              AAAA  AAAA
                                     AAAA
                                  AAAA A AAA                                                AAAA AAAA AA         AAAARSOI
                                                                                                                      AAAAAA
   AAAA
    AAAA
     AAAA
      AAAA
   AAAA
    AAAA
     AAAA
      AAAA
          AAAA
       AAAA
         AAAA
           AAAA
            A AA
               A A            AAAA
                               AAAA
                                AAAA
                                 AAAA
                                CA   AAAA
                                  AAAA
                                    AAAA
                                      AAAA
                                       AAAA                                                 AAAA AAAAAA
                                                                                              OPFOR              AAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA AA
   AAAA
    AAAA
     AAAA
         AAAA
      AAAA
          AAAA
       AAAAAAAA
            AAAA
            A
          AAAA
       AAAA
              AAAA
              AA
               AA
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            A    AA
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              AA
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                                       A A  AAA                                             AAAA AAAA AA              AAAAAA
    AAAA
     AAAA
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     AAAAAAAA
      AAAAAAAA
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              AAAA
              AA
               A A
                 AA  A        AAAA
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                                      AAAA
                                       AAAA
                                       A  AA AA
                                            AAA
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                                                                                            AAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                 AAAA
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                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAA
                                                                                                                          AA
      AAAA
          AAAA
        AAAA
            AAAA
         AAAA
           AAAA
         AAAA AAAA
           AAAAA
            AAAA
              AAAA A
                 AAA
                     A
                     A
                               AAAA
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                                     AAAA
                                    AAAA
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                                      AAAAA
                                       AAAA
                                          AA
                                             AA
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                                             AA
      AAAA AAAA
        AAAAAAAA
         AAAA    A
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                                  AAAAAAAA
                                       AAAA
        AAAA
         AAAA
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              AAAA A A            AAAAAAAA   AA
         AAAAAAAAA                AAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                   Option two (DCSOPS)
                 Option one (DIVPAC)

    Working Group uses nine weighted criteria to
    evaluate options
    Option two receives better score, but difference
    between the options is negligible
    Cost is considered as independent variable




                                              Page 22                                          GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section II
The Army National Guard Division Redesign
Study




Once the two options were selected for further study, the Working Group
then addressed the feasibility of implementing each option. This phase of
the study was done by developing and defining the criteria to be used to
show the strengths and weaknesses of each option, subjectively assessing
the advantages and disadvantages of each criterion, and factoring in the
costs determined in phase two as an independent variable.

The Group approved nine criteria to be used. These were relevance to the
war-fight, reduction of unresourced support shortfall, impact on the active
force, amount of Guard maneuver/combat troops integrated into the
war-fight mission, turbulence on Guard units, readiness impact on lower
tiered units, impact on full-time support ratios, impact on professional
development, and impact on force mix. Each of the criteria was assigned a
weight by using a standard Army computer program. Throughout this
process, advantages and disadvantages of each option were subjectively
evaluated.

According to the study, the lowest score is the preferred option when
based on the weighted criteria. When the scores were summed, option two
received the lowest score. Option two converts more combat into support
spaces, impacts the active component the least, and would have the least
amount of turbulence to the Guard units. Option one scored better than
option two in two criteria: It provides more professional development
opportunities, and it would not generate as many full-time personnel
support requirements. However, the study’s final report stated that the
differences between the two options were slight.

During this phase, the estimated costs originally developed in phase two
were revisited as an independent variable. As stated previously,
option two yields the most expensive one-time costs and the least amount
of savings in recurring costs. The difference between option one and two
could be greater than reflected in phase two because, among other things,
the one-time and recurring cost estimates associated with option one do
not include the costs related to the two new active component/Guard
divisions.




Page 23                                     GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                               Briefing Section II
                               The Army National Guard Division Redesign
                               Study




GAO      Comparison of Options

                       xx AAAA
                 AAAAAAAA               AAAA
                                        AAAAAAAA
                                               xxAAAA
                                            AAAA AAAAAA                          xxAAAAA
                                                                          AAAAAAAA                 AAAAAAAA         xxAAAAA
Option one       AAAA
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                      AAAA
                   AAAA
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                        AAAA
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                    As-Is
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                                        AAAAAAAA
                                          AAAA  Is
                                                 AAAA
                                               AAAA AAAA
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                                                                              AAAA
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                                                                                CAAAAA   AA
                                                                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                                                   AAAA            AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAA
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                                                                                          A        AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAA   AAAA   AAAA
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(DIVPAC)         AAAA
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                                               AAAAAAAA
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                                                                                                      AAAA   AAAA   AAAA
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                   AAAA
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                      AAAA AAAA
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                                          AAAAAAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                                    AAAA  AAAA
                                                             AA               AAAA
                                                                              AAAAAAAA
                                                                                   AAAAAAAA           AAAA          AAAA  AAAA
                      AAAAAAAAAAAAA
                        AAAA
                           AAAA
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                               AAAA A         AAAA
                                               AAAAAAAA
                                              AAAA
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                                                   AAAAAAAA                             AAAA          AAAAAAAAAAAA        AAAA     AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                      AAAAAAAAAAAAA           AAAAAAAAAAAA                                                                AAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAAAAAA  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                         AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                              AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
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                                                                                                                                                            AAAAA
                                                                                                                                                                A
                                                     x                                       x                            AAAA
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                                                                                                                                         AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA6,600 AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                                   AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                        AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                            AAAAA
                                                                                                                                                                A
                                                                                                                                                 support
42,700 support                                AAAA
                                              AAAA AAAA
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                                                                                                                          AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                          AAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAAA
                                              AAAA
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                                                           AAAA                                                           AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                    AAAA AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                        migrates   AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                                     from   AAAA
                                                               AAAAAA                  AAAA
                                                                                         AAAA
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                                                                                                   AAAA    AAAA                                                 A
spaces                                        AAAA
                                                AAAA
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                                              AAAA AAAA
                                                AAAA
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                                                             AAAA
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                                                                                            CA   AAAA
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                                                                                                       A     A
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                                                                                                                                                   AAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                        AAAAAAAA
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                                                                                                                                         AAAAto
                                                                                                                                              AAAA
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                                                                                                                                              AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                   AAAA AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                            AAAAA
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                                                 AAAA
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                                                                                                                   AAAAA



                        AAAA  xx                                   xxAAAA                                     xx
Option two              AAAAAAAA
                             AAAAAAAA
                                  AAAAAA                    AAAA
                                                            AAAA AAAA
                                                                 AAAA AAAA                          AAAAAAAAAAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                        AAAA AAAA
                               AAAA
                            As-Is
                          AAAA
                             AAAA AAAA
                                    AAAA
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                               AAAA
                                       A
                                       A A
                                    AAAA A
                                                            AAAA
                                                            AAAA
                                                               CAAAAA
                                                              AAAA AAAA
                                                                 AAAA
                                                              AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                        AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                   AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                         AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA              Differences:
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                        AAAA AAAA
                          AAAAAAAA
                               AAAA
                             AAAA
                              AAAAAAAA
                                   AAAA
                                    AAAA
                                       A
                                       AAAAA
                                         A
                                         A AA
                                                            AAAA AAAA
                                                              AAAA AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                        AAAA                        AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                         AAAAAAAA
                                  AAAA
                               AAAAAAAA
                                    AAAAAAAA                AAAA AAAA
                                                              AAAA    AAAA
                                                                   AAAA    AAAA
                                                                           AAAAAA
                                                                        AAAA                        AAAARSOI  AAAA
(DCSOPS)                AAAA
                          AAAA
                        AAAA
                          AAAA
                        AAAA
                              AAAA
                             AAAA
                               AAAA
                             AAAA
                          AAAAAAAA
                              AAAA
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                                   AAAA
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                                   AAAA
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                                         A
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                                    AAAA
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                                                              AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                   AAAA AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                   AAAA    AAAAA
                                                                        AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                         AAAA AAAA              - EBs
                                         A AA
                                                            AAAA AAAA
                                                              AAAA    AAAA
                                                                   AAAA    AAAA
                                                                        AAAA    A                   AAAA
                          AAAAAAAA
                               AAAAAAAA
                                    AAAAAAAA                     AAAA
                                                              AAAA    AAAA
                                                                   AAAA    AAAA
                                                                           AAAAAA
                                                                        AAAA                        AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                         AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA
                          AAAAAAAA
                               AAAAAAAA
                                    AAAAAAAA
                                         A A                  AAAA
                                                                 AAAA AAAA
                                                                   AAAA AAAA
                              AAAAAAAAAAAA
                              AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                              AAAA
                                                                 AAAA
                                                                   AAAA
                                                                 AAAA
                                                                      AAAA
                                                                      AAAAAAAAA
                                                                        AAAA
                                                                           AAAA
                                                                 AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                - 6,600
44,100 support                                                                                                                    migration
                                                                  AAAA   xxAAAAA
                                                                       AAAA
spaces                                                            AAAA
                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                       AAAA
                                                                            AAAAAA
                                                                            AAAA AA
                                                                                                                                - OPFOR
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                  AAAA AAAA
                                                                       AAAA
                                                                     OPFOR  AAAA
                                                                            AAAA  A
                                                                  AAAA AAAA AAAA  AA
                                                                  AAAA
                                                                  AAAA AAAA AAAA
                                                                  AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
                                                                       AAAA AAAA




                               Page 24                                                                   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
    Briefing Section II
    The Army National Guard Division Redesign
    Study




    The structural similarities of each option are presented in the shaded areas
    on the previous page. For example, each option maintains three Guard
    combat divisions as currently configured. Each option also converts some
    Guard combat brigades and/or divisions into combined arms units to
    satisfy an almost identical amount of unresourced support requirements
    that have similar missions.9 Specifically, option one would convert about
    42,700 combat spaces to support spaces; option two would convert about
    44,100.

    The principal differences between the options are presented in the lighter
    areas on the previous page and focus on three areas: use of the enhanced
    brigades, the migration of spaces, and the opposing force division.

•   Option one moves three of the enhanced brigades into three Guard
    divisions to free up divisional brigades for conversion to support spaces.
    The option also uses the separate combat units for conversion to support
    spaces. Option two leaves the enhanced brigades as they are currently
    configured, uses one separate unit as a maneuver brigade for a combined
    arms division, and gets all of the unresourced support requirements from
    the converted divisions.
•   Option one includes the migration of the missions of 6,600 existing
    support spaces from the active component to the Guard. Option two does
    not include this migration.
•   Option two includes an opposing force division. Option one does not, but
    instead has divisions that could be task organized to handle this mission.

    In addition to the difference in the amount of support spaces the options
    create, there are also differences in the number and type of the support
    units themselves. For example, option one creates 108 quartermaster units
    with 15,825 spaces, while option two creates 159 quartermaster units with
    21,436 spaces. Also, option one creates 15 signal corps units with
    4,029 spaces, while option two creates 3 signal corps units with
    624 spaces.




    9
     As previously stated, a reception, staging, onward movement, and integration division is a variation of
    the combined arms division without the maneuver brigade.



    Page 25                                                 GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section III

The Decision




       GAO             Working Group Selects Option One


                                               Option one (DIVPAC)

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                            AAAA                AAAA
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                                                                                             xx AAAA        AAAA
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                                                                                                                   xxAAAAAA
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                                                                                         AAAA    AAAA
                                                                                              AAAA AAAA     AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                 AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                      AAAAAAAA
                          AAAA
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                                 AAAA   A A       AAAA
                                                    AAAA AAAA
                                                       AAAAAAAA                          AAAA
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                                                                                              AAAA              AAAA AAAA AAAA
                                 AAAAAAAAA
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                                                            AAAA
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                            AAAA
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                                           A        AAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAAAAAAAA                                                            AAAA
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                                                                                                                                                  AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                       AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                            AAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                                AA
                                                            x                                         x                       AAAA
                                                                                                                              AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                   AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                        AAAA AAAA
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                                                                                                                                                       AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                                            AAAAAA
                                                                                                                                                                AA
                                                    AAAAAAAAAAAAAA                               AAAAAAAAAAAA                 AAAAAAAA  AAAA
                                                                                                                                     6,600   AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                               support AAAA AAAAAA
                                                    AAAAAAAA  AAAA                               AAAA
                                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                                      AAAA
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                                                    AAAA
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                                                                                                      AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                             AAAA             AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAA
                                                                    AA AAAAAA                    AAAA
                                                                                                   AAAA
                                                                                                    AAAAAAAA
                                                                                                      AAAA
                                                                                                         AAAA
                                                                                                           AAAA
                                                                                                             AAAA
                                                                                                              AAAA            AAAA AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                     migratesAAAA AAAA AAAA
                                                                                                                                                    from    AAAAAA
                                                    AAAA
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                                               Page 26                                                                  GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section III
The Decision




On the basis of its evaluation of the feasibility analysis, the Working Group
selected option one to present to the senior Army leadership. According to
the study’s final report, this decision was based on the similarities of the
support units, the negligible difference in the support spaces created, and
the slight difference in the costs of the two options.

However, the Working Group required two modifications before
proceeding with this option: (1) the missions of the 6,600 spaces that were
to migrate from the active component would not migrate now but could
migrate into the Guard once the Army’s current initiative to redesign the
force for the future is completed and (2) the proposal for the two new
active component/Guard divisions would be revisited after the next update
of the national security strategy. This proposal is currently being tested by
the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command to determine the viability of
the concept.

The Secretary of the Army approved the Working Group’s modified
recommendation on May 14, 1996, and sent a letter to the Secretary of
Defense informing him of the Army’s decision. According to Army
officials, the Secretary of Defense was briefed on August 26, 1996, and
concurred with the Secretary of the Army’s decision.




Page 27                                  GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
                     Briefing Section III
                     The Decision




GAO     Illustrative Time Frames for
        Implementation
      Time-phased resourcing based on $400 M per fiscal year

         FY 98                              FY 08

                    10 years

      Time-phased resourcing based on $200 M per fiscal year

         FY 98                                      FY 16
                               18 years


      Time-phased resourcing based on $100 M per fiscal year
         FY 98                                                          FY 27

                                     29 years




                     Page 28                          GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section III
The Decision




The previous page depicts illustrative time frames for implementing option
one based on different resourcing alternatives and using the highest
estimated one-time costs. For example, if $400 million is provided each
fiscal year beginning in 1998, the study’s final report estimated it would
take 8 years, or until 2006, to procure new equipment and an additional
2 years, or until 2008, to complete implementation. As shown on the
previous page, the less funding that is made available each fiscal year
lengthens the time it takes to complete the conversion.

However, it is unlikely that funding for the Guard Division Redesign will
be available as early as fiscal year 1998. According to Army force structure
officials, the support shortfall at the end of the Total Army Analysis
process for the planning period ending in fiscal year 2003 would be almost
125,000 spaces.10 Over 66,000 spaces of this shortfall are to be filled
through the conversion of existing support units in both the active and
reserve components. The procurement phase of this conversion is to be
fully funded before any of the redesign effort will be undertaken. The
entire conversion, including procurement and implementation, of the
66,000 spaces is estimated to cost about $2.6 billion. However, according
to Army officials, funding for this conversion has not been established and,
therefore, it is not known when the conversion will be completed.

It appears, therefore, that the redesign will not begin for several years and
that, regardless of which funding alternative on the previous page is
chosen, implementation will take a prolonged period of time—10 to 29
years. However, the contractor is currently refining the final costs and
implementation time frames for the chosen option. According to Army
officials, preliminary results from this effort indicate that costs could be
less than originally estimated.




10
  The Total Army Analysis is the process by which the Army determines the nondivisional support
requirements, based on war-fighting scenarios developed by DOD.



Page 29                                              GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
Briefing Section IV

Response to Prior Recommendations




       GAO            Studies Did Not Address All of
                      Previous Recommendations
                      Recommendations
                         Validate the number of combat troops needed to carry out
                         the national security strategy
                         Use some of the support and combat forces of the Guard to
                         fill needed, but unresourced, support requirements
                         Consider eliminating any forces that exceed validated
                         requirements
                      Redesign study did not fully validate combat troops needed or
                      discuss elimination of any excess troops
                      Other studies conducted by JCS and PA&E did not address
                      recommendations
                      Opportunity for the Quadrennial Defense Review to revisit
                      these issues



                                   According to DOD, our recommendations and those of the Commission on
                                   Roles and Missions were to be addressed by this study and other studies
                                   conducted by the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation (PA&E) and
                                   the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). However, while the Army National Guard
                                   Division Redesign Study and the resulting decision provides for some
                                   Guard support and combat forces to fill needed, but unresourced, support
                                   requirements, none of the studies were chartered to validate the combat
                                   needs or eliminate any excess forces. This leaves substantial Guard




                                   Page 30                                GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
           Briefing Section IV
           Response to Prior Recommendations




           structure in place that has no valid war-fight mission. We still believe these
           are critical steps that should be taken.

           According to the study’s final report, three of the Guard divisions
           remaining in their current configuration were assigned a mission of
           deterrent hedge, one of the missions that would add relevance to the
           Guard structure. The report states that this mission was based on
           requirements stated in concept plans developed by the Commanders in
           Chief of the Unified Commands. However, on the basis of our review of
           war planning documents and discussions with Army war planning
           officials, this requirement does not exist in either Commanders’ concept
           plans, the current Defense Planning Guidance, or any other war planning
           documents. Furthermore, the three divisions, which include an enhanced
           brigade in each, were assigned the mission of enhancing mobilization, also
           to add relevance. Both these missions met the definition of relevance
           approved by the Working Group. However, according to Army war
           planning officials, there is a formal analysis process to validate combat
           and support missions and requirements needed to carry out the national
           security strategy that goes beyond assigning missions to structure. The
           study did not follow this process to determine that the missions assigned
           to the structure were valid.

           In the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1997
           (P.L. 104-201), the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Chairman
           of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is to conduct a Quadrennial Defense Review as
           recommended by the Commission. This review would be a comprehensive
           examination of the defense strategy, force structure, force modernization
           plans, budget plans, infrastructure, and other elements of the defense
           program and policies with a view toward determining and expressing the
           defense strategy of the United States, and establishing a revised defense
           program through the year 2005. According to both Joint Chiefs of Staff and
           Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation officials, this review is another
           opportunity for DOD to revisit the Commission’s and our recommendations
           to validate combat forces and eliminate excess Guard structure.

           We concur with these officials and recommend that the Secretary of
           Defense, as he guides the review, direct that the review process validate
           requirements for Guard combat structure. We further recommend that,
           once this validation is complete, the Secretary of Defense, in concert with
           the Secretary of the Army, eliminate any structure beyond that which is
           needed to carry out the national security strategy.




(701099)   Page 31                                   GAO/NSIAD-97-55BR Army National Guard
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