NATO's Operations and Contingency Plans for Stabilizing the Balkans

Published by the Government Accountability Office on 1999-03-11.

Below is a raw (and likely hideous) rendition of the original report. (PDF)

      United States
GAO   General Accounting Offke
      Washington, D.C. 20548

      National Security and International Affairs Division


      March 11,1999

      The Honorable Floyd D. Spence
      Chairman, Committee on Armed Services
      House of Representatives

      Subject:     NATO’s Onerationsand Continaencv Plans for Stabilizinu the Balkans

      Dear Mr. Chairman:

      This letter provides extracts from our recent report on NATO’s operationsand contingency plaus for
       stabilizing the Balkans. For purposesof this letter, the Balkans region is defined as Albania; Bosnia and
      Herzegovina, Croak, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; and the Federal Republic of
      Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro, hereafler referred to as the FRY).’ Figure 1 and attachment I
      provide maps of the Balkans region. The full report provides information on (1) current and projected
      security conditions in the Balkans region, particularly with regard to Bosnia and Serbia’s province of
      Kosovo, and (2) the potential impact of these conditions on (a) prospectsfor a drawdown of the North
      Atlantic Treaty Organ&&ion (NATO)-led Stabilization Force (SFOR) in Bosnia, (b) NATO’s current
      operations around Kosovo, and (c) NATO and U.S. plans to deploy air and ground forces for resolving
      the ongoing conflict in Kosovo, in particular, ground operationsplanned for a ‘permissive
      environment”-one where all parties to the conflict agreeto the presenceand mission of NATO-led

      To addressthese issues,we relied extensively on NATO and U.S. documentsconcerning the situation in
      the region. We also conducted interviews with the Department of Defense (DOD), State,and NATO
      officials to &xi@ our understandingof information contained in these documents. The full report from
      which these extmcts were derived provides summaryinformation on the status of NATO and U.S.
      planning as of February 26, 1999,three days a&r the latest round of Kosovo peacenegotiations had
      ended with the failure of the parties to agreeto a proposed interim peace settlement. Recent reports
      indicate that as of today, the parties are still unwilliug to sign this proposedpeaceagreement. As
      discussedin the full report, NATO and U.S. decisionson the force level, mission, and tasks of a peace
      enforcement operation for Kosovo will dependgreatly on the provisions of any cease-fireor peace
      agreementthat may be reachedin the future and on the parties’ willingness to implement them.

      ‘The former Yugoslavia consisted of six republics: (1) Bosnia and Henegoviq    (2) Croatia, (3) Macedonia, (4) Montenegro, (5) Serbii and
      (6) Slovenk Following the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the republics of Serbia and Montene~o asserted the fomation of a joint independent
      state known as the Fehl  Republic of Yugoslavia This entity has not ken formally recognized as a state by the United States.

                                                                                   GAO/NSIAD-99-111R NATO Operations in the Balkans
Figure 1: Map of the Balkans Region


       -A%                d@               HUNGARY


   ITALY           \

                                                 GAOINSUD-99-11   IR NATO Operations in the Balkans
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           Overview of the Security Situation in the Balkans
           The situation in the Balkans remains one of ethnic turmoil and conflict, with the potential for the recent
           fighting in Kosovo to escalateand engulf relatively peaceful areas of the region.

           Substantialprogress has beenmade in Bosnia sincethe signing of the 1995 Dayton Agreement, ’ but
           almost all of the results were achievedonly with intense international involvement and pressure,both
           political and military. This pressurewill continue to be necessarybecausethe parties to the conflict--
           Bosnia’s Muslims, Croats,and Serbs,as well as Croatia and the FRY3-largely retain their wartime goals.
           Despite the progress madeto date, conditions in Bosnia have not improved to the point where SFOR can
           withdraw or substantially draw down. As we previously reported these conditions will likely not be met
           for sometime to come.4

                       Parties Largely Retain Wartime Gods

          The actions taken by the international community beginning in mid-1997 acceleratedthe pace of progress
          toward reaching the Dayton Agreement’s goals over the next year. With the military situation remaining
          stable,the international community used intensive political and military pressureto force advancements
          toward the goals of providing security for the people of Bosnia, creating a democratic environment,
          establishing multiethnic institutions at all levels of government, arresting those indicted for war crimes,
          returning people to their prewar homesacrossethnic lines, and rebuilding the infmstmcture and
          revitalizing the economy.5 Though the pace slowed somewhat during the second half of 1998, the
          international wmmmity has continuedto exert intensivepressureto force the parties to comply with the
          Dayton Agreement’s provisions.

          The intensive international pressureon the political leadersof the Bosniaks, Bosnian Croats, and Bosnian
          Serbswas necessarybecausetheir strategicgoals remain largely unchanged and the underlying political
          diikences have not beenresolved. The delays in implementing the Dayton Agreement’s civil
          provisions-including the slow pace of developing multiethnic institutions and the obstruction of people
          attempting to return to their prewar homesacrossethnic lines-is a continuing manifestation of the
          attitudes of Bosnian Serbsand Croats toward a unified Bosnia. The majority of these two groups, as well
          as their political leaders, continue to want to establishstatesseparatefrom Bosnia. According to polling
          data of the U.S. Information Agency, only 19 percentof Bosnian Serbsand 45 percent of Bosnian Croats
          support the goal of Bosnia remaining a single state. In contrast, 99 percent of Bosniaks support this goal.

          ‘For purposesof this repor& the 1995 Gcnaal Framework @eemeat for Peace in Bosnia aud Hmegovina and its supporting anuexes are
          r&red     to as the “Dayton Agreement.”

          %e wu in Boka WLSfought among Bosoia’s three major etbnkkeligious gmups-Bosnkks (MusIims), Serbs (Eastern Orthodox Christians),
          end Croats (Roman Whoks). the lat&rtwo being supported by Serbia and Croatia, respectively. Before the war, Bosnia’s population was 4.4
          million people-44 percent Muslim, 3 1 pacent Serb, 17 percent Croat, and 8 percent other ethnic groups. The Dayton Agreement was signed in
          December 1995 by representatives of Bosnia’s three major ethnic 8mups, Croatia,, and the FRY.

          ' bS!da Peace cbratior~: PaCe Of hu~crnMtiap: Davton Accelerated as h&national h01vcm~ In--d          (GAO/NSIAD.98q38, June 5,
          1998) and Bosnia Peace CWmtion: Mission. Structure. and Transition Stratew ofNATO’s Stabilization Force, (GAO/NSIAD-99-19, Oa. 8,

          ‘See Bosnia Peace Owration: Pace of Imchmentine Davton Accelerated as International Involvement Inmeased for a full description of progress
          toward these goals and Bosnia Peace Owmtion: Mission. Stmcture. and Transition 8tratew of NATO’s Stabilization Force for information WI
          SFOR’s contribution to implementing the military and civilian provisions of the Dayron Agreement.

                                                                                       GAOINSIAD-99-I      11R NATO Opendons in the Balhs
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           At the sametune, Croatia and Serbia--the dominant republic in the FRY-continue to use their influence
           to obstruct Dayton implementationas they pursue their strategic goals of a “Greater Croatia” and “Greater
           Serbia” respectively.

           The international community will attempt to achieve a breakthrough in minority returns during 1999, with
           the Office of the High Representative6hoping that as many as 120,000 people will return home across
           ethnic lines this year. However, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR) has estimatedthat
           about 50,000 of these “minority returns” will take place in 1999, a number more in keeping with the
           incremental progressachievedthus far. 7 In developing this estimate, UNHCR assumed,among other
           things, that (1) the international community will main&t a concerted, forceful, and long-term
           commitment to Dayton implementation; and (2) SFOR will maintain a credible security umbrella in
           Bosnia and will actively supportthe implementation of the civil aspectsof Dayton.*

                     Potential for an SFOR Drawdown

           As long as a credible SFOR remainsin theater ready and able to intervene actively should circumstances
           warraut, according to international officials in Bosnia, the probability that the respective ethnic groups
           will resort to military action is low. These officials said, however, that SFOR needsto continue to deter
           hostilities through constantmonitoring and maintaining a deterrent presence. SFOR also needsto
           actively maintain a safeand secureenvironment, particularly with regard to returns of people to their pre-
           war homes acrossethnic lines. SFOR officials told us that the increasedemphasisof the international
           wmmunity on minority returns will in turn increasethe number of “hotspots” of potential violence.
           In November 1998, international officials in Bosnia estimatedthat without an SFOR presenceat or about
           its current force levels,the war would break out again within a short period of tune.

           In mid-December 1998,NATO concluded that political and security conditions in Bosnia would not
           allow a changein SFOR’s mission or a substantial drawdown in SFOR force levels.? Instead,NATO
           decidedto make administrativeadjustmentsof up to 10 percent in SFOR force levels by April 1999. This
           could lower the number of SFORtroops to about 30,000. As currently envisioned, NATO will reduce the
           number of SFOR’s combat support and combat service support personnel but will not reducethe number
           of combat battalions located in Bosnia. As part of this efficiency reduction, DOD plans to decreasethe
           U.S. contribution to SFOR by 10 percent to about 6,200 troops. According to information from the Joint

           crhe Dayton Agreement created the position of the High Representative. It gave the High Representative, an intemational oKciaI, many
           responsibilities, including monitoring the implemeutation ofthe agreement, coordinating civilian organizations, mai!Wi&8 close contact with
           the parties, and givingthe final interpretation intheater on civilian implementation ofthe agreement.

           ‘According to UNHCR data, the number of people rehming home auoss ethnic lines has been increasing each year since the signing ofthe
           Dayton Agreement The number went kom an estimated 9,500 in 1996, to 39,000 in 1997, to over 41,000 in 1998, for a total of 89,500. Despite
           this trend, UNHCR estimamd that as ofthe end of 1998, about 370,000 refugees and 860,000 displaced persons (about 1.23 million people total)
           had not yet found a “dumble solution” to their displacematf defined as hum&tari an/refugee status, other resident status, resettlement, and
           repatdion     Ifthese people returned to their pre-war homes, most of them would be returning to areas now controlled by another ethnic group.
           ‘According to a senior State Department offkiai, as put of tbis increased emphasis, the international community will begin to pressure the
           Republika Srpska government to accept the retums of non-Serbs to Republika Srpska, something tbat did not occur in 1998 despite the pledges of
           the moderate Republika Srpska Prime Minister, Milorad Dodik. In February 1998, the Prime Minister set a goal of retuming 70,000 non-Serbs to
           their pre-war homes in Republika &p&a. Organized visits of Bosnian Croats and Bosniaks to their pre-war commum‘ties, however, sperked
           violent incidents in westem Republika Srpska during the spring of 1998. According to UNHCR data, only 6,000 non-Serbs retumed to Republika
           Srpska, excluding the Brcko area, during the year. In comparison, about 32,700 minority returns occurred in the Federation, including about
            10,370 Serbs, and about 2,600 non-Serbs returned to the Brcko area.

           ‘SFOR consists of about 33,200 troops located in Bosnia and Croatia (as of November 1998). The United States remains the largest force
           provider to SFOR snd Ameticans continue to hold the key NATO military positions that control the operation k of Janwry 1999, the United
           States was providing about 6,830 troops to SFOR-6,730 in Bosnia and 100 troops iu Croatia An additional 2,200 U.S. military pemormel in
           Croatia, Hungary, and Italy wae directly suppoiting SFOR operations but were not a part of SFOR Attachment III provides more information
           on current peace operations of NATO and the United Nations in the Balkans.

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           StaE, the U.S. military will reduce its contribution to SFOR’s operational reserve-a U.S. aviation task
           force that also supports the U.S. military sector-as well as in headquartersand support units.

           NATO is currently studying various options for more substantiallyreducing SFOR’s presencein Bosnia.
           The United Statesproposed two options for consideration: (1) a gradual reduction option in which the
           size of SFOR would decreasein light of progress in Dayton implementation,and (2) a substantial
           reduction option in which the post-1999 force would be structuredbasedupon SFOR’s key military tasks.
           This study is to be submitted by NATO military headquartersto NATO’s international military staff
           during March 1999.

           U.S. SFOR officials told us in November 1998 that the U.S. military employs 55 percent of its ground
           combat forces in Bosnia on “presencepatrols” and 40 percent on duties associatedwith force protection.
           SFOR’s presencepatrols, according to U.S. and other SFOR officials, serveboth military and civilian
           purposes. SFOR headquartersin Sarajevois in the processof collecting data on how SFOR overall is
           using its ground combat forces. SFOR intends to use the data as the basis of (1) SFOR’s next 6-month
           assessmentdue in May 1999 and (2) future decisions on rempving SFOR combat battalions from Bosnia.
           These data are expectedto be availableby the end of March 1999.,.

           In mid-October 1998, FRY PresidentSlobodan Milosevic agreedto a cease-fireunder pressurefrom
           NATO, and Kosovar Albanian insurgents agreedto exerciseself-restraint. The cease-fire,however,
           constituted only a pausein the military struggle over the future of Kosovo. The Serbsand the Kosovar
           Albanians retain mutually exclusivegoals and are preparedand willing to renew the conflict in order to
           attain their objectives. These and other aspectsof the security environmentin and around Kosovo will
           affect the mission, composition, and required force levels of any NATO-led force that may be deployed in
           an effort to resolve the conflict. The relationship betweenthe security environmentand proposed NATO-
           led operations is discussedin detail in our full report on NATO’s operation and contingency plans for
           stabilizing the Balkans.

                   Security Situation and Status of Peace Negotiations

           Since the October agreement,there has been a continuous deterioration of the cease-fire. Numerous
           violent incidents occurred during late December 1998 and January 1999 asthe Kosovar Albanian
           insurgents took advantageof the cease-fireand initial reductionsin Serb security forces and as Serb
           special forces were reintroduced into the province. The on-the-groundpresenceof the unarmed Kosovo
           Verification Mission, led by the Organization for Security and Cooperationin Europe, has not and likely
           will not be able to deter Serb forces or the insurgents from using violence to gain advantage.

           According to a recent statementof the Director of Central Intelligence, the year-long conflict between
           Kosovar Albanian insurgents and Serb forces will likely continue to escalatewithout the presenceof an
           external force, such as a NATO-led peace enforcementoperation. An escalationof the conflict would
           likely further destabilize or harm international efforts to stabiliaethe region, particularly the neighboring
           countries of Bosnia; Macedonia, a country with a large minority population of ethnic Albanians; and
           Albania, where the government doesnot control the country’s northern areasthat support Kosovar
           Albanian insurgents. According to reports of the United Nations SecretaryGeneral, Kosovar Albanian
           insurgents are militarily active on both sides of the Kosovo-Albania border. Attachment I provides a map
           showing the distribution of the ethnic Albanian population in and around Kosovo.

                                                                       GAO/NSIAD-99-1llR   NATO Operations in the Balkans
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           NATO’s current operations around Kosovo are part of a larger international effort to verify whether Serb
           and Kosovar Albanian forces are complying with the cease-fireand other measurescalled for by the UN.
           Security Council in late September 1998.” By late January 1999, it appearedthat cease-fire violations
           committed by both parties during late December1998 and January 1999 would escalateinto a full-scale
           resumption of the conflict before a peacesettlementcould be reached. In responseto this situation, as
           well as to recent Serb atrocities against Kosovar Albanians, the international community attempted to
           mediate an interim peace settlementbetweenboth parties during early February 1999 under the renewed
           threat of NATO airshikes againstthe Serbs. This round of negotiations ended with no peace agreement
           being reachedbut with the expectationthat negotiations would continue on March 15,1999. As of March
            11, however, reports indicated that the parties were unwilling to sign the proposed interim peace

                      NATO Contingency Plans for Resolving the Conflict

           NATO and the United Stateshave considereda number of air and ground options for resolving the
           Kosovo conflict. The United Statesand NATO have publicly threatenedto launch airstrikes against the
           Serbs as a meansof foi%ng them to agreeto an interim peace settlement. It is unclear, however, what the
           current intent is with regardsto NATO’s planneduse of airstrikes, as executive branch officials have
           recently made conflicting statementson this issue. On February 19,1999, the President said that NATO
           allies standunited in their determinationto use force if Serbia failed to accept the interim peace
           agreement. Shortly after recent negotiations in France ended with neither party agreeing to the proposed
           settlement,DOD said in commentsto our full report that there is no longer a willingness to use air and/or
           ground forces in Kosovo to get an agreement.

           DOD and U.S. European Command officials told us in late 1998 that the United Statesdid not intend to
           deploy U.S. ground troops to Kosovo. The executivebranch at that time, however, had not ruled out the
           possibility of sending U.S. troops there as part of a NATO-led force to enforce a cease-fire or a peace
           agreementwith the parties’ consent,that is, within a permissive environment. As the security situation
           deteriorated during late 1998 and early 1999,NATO allies respondedto the changed situation by deciding
           to execute,under certain conditions, an option for a ground force that would enforce a peace agreement.

           During February 1999,the President said that the United Stateshas an important interest” in resolving the
           Kosovo conflict that warrants the deployment of U.S. ground troops to help bring peace to Kosovo, but
           U.S. forces would be deployed only if a permissiveenvironment existed.. At that time, the United States
           would have provided about 4,000 troops to a NATO-led force of 28,000 (about 14 percent of the total) if
           the parties reacheda strong peaceagreement,detied by the Presidentas an agreementthat provides for
           (1) an immediate cease-fire, (2) a rapid withdrawal of most Serb security forces, and (3) the
           demilitarization of the Kosovar Albanian insurgents. The executivebranch did not rule out the possibility
           of providing U.S. ground troops to a NATO-led force that would enforce a cease-fireagreementin a
           permissive environment.

           “%.N. Security Council Resolution 1199 (Sept. X3,1998). While the FRY agreed to a cease-fire in October 1998. the Kosovar Albauian
           insurgents agreed only to exercise “self-restnint”

           “The national security strategy defines three types of U.S. intere=&+vital, iqnuut,     and humanitarian-that guide decisions about whether aud
           when to use U.S. military forces. Important interests do not affect the nation’s survival as do vital interem but they do significantly affect the
           national well-being end the cheracter of the world in which Americans live. Where imporrant interests are at stake, according to the strategy,
           military forces should be used only ifthey advance U.S. interests, are likely to accomplish their objectives, aud if other means are inadequate to
           accomplish U.S. goals.

                                                                                             GAOMUD-99-111R              NATO Operations in the Balkans
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           As of February 26,1999, basedon the expectationthat an interim peace agreementwould be reachedin
           the near term, NATO and U.S. planning efforts were concentratedon deploying this force that would
           monitor, ensure,and, if necessary,enforce a peaceagreementin Kosovo only. Jfthis force were to
           deploy by mid-1999, the number of NATO-led troops in the Balkans would grow to about 63,000 and
           U.S. commitmentsin the region would increaseto about 11,400 troops, most of which would come from
           the U.S. Army. (SeeattachmentII for information on how U.S. Army resourcesare currently engaged

           However, the conflict will likely escalateover the next few months in the absenceof a viable peace
           agreementbacked by an external force, such as a NATO-led peace enforcement operation. Ifthe security
           situation significantly deterioratesbefore the FRY and Kosovar Albanian insurgents reach such an
           agreement,then NATO allies could decideto plan for and deploy a different force that is better suited for
           the changedsecurity environmentand the status of peacenegotiations. Specifically, NATO could choose
           to deploy a force that would enforcea cease-firein Kosovo only or in Kosovo and Albania. This force
           would provide a secureenvironmentin Kosovo while the parties continue to negotiate a viable peace
           agreement. The expectedsecurity environment and the associatedmission and tasks of such a force
           would likely require a much larger number of troops than the force of 28,000 currently under
           consideration. Further, security conditions around Kosovo may require the deployment of NATO-led
           troops to help stabilize Albania and Macedonia.

           This letter was preparedunder the direction of Harold J. Johnson,Associate Director, International
           Relations and Trade Issues,who may be contacted on (202) 5 12-4128 if you or your staff have any
           questions about this letter or our full report on these matters. Other major contributors to the report
           include B. Patrick Hickey, Judith McCloskey, E. JeanetteVelis, and Jody Woods .

           Attachments (3)

                                                                       GAO/NSIAD-99-1llR    NATO Operations in the Balkans
                                                      Page 7
                                                                                                                     ATTACHMEm            I

                                       MAPS OF BOSNIA AM3 THE KOSOVO AREA
                    This attachmentprovides maps showing the distribution of Bosnia’s three major ethnic groups (seefig,
                    I. 1) and the ethnic Albanian population in Kosovo and Macedonia (seefig. 1.2), as well as the areasof
                    operation of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) (see fig. 1.3).

                    Figure Ll:             Map of Bosnia

                                      -                 L?-


                                                                                                                      Bosnia and
                                                                                                                      Hetzeaovina -4    drb*

py      WY     E M”IlJnallonal                                      -        -“&Q#,#‘:.:::        ,’
      - (N)    = Multinationa!   KF’o”     (North)
        .--      . . .. ..          .~.-   ,e-~.-__.\         I

                                                                                             GAO/NSAD-99-111R   NATO Opemtions in the Jhlkans
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                                                                                                           ATTACHMENT        I

                  Figure I.2: Distribution         of Ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia

              I   Sarajevo


          I        Adriatic
                     Sea             c

                                                                     Greece              10


          I                                                                                                             1

                                                                          GAOLNSIAD-99-1llR   NATO Operatims in the Bakaus
                                                                                       ATTACHhEm         I

          Figure L3: Kosovo Liberation   Army Areas of Operation (as of October 1998)

                             : ^.,:.
                              ..:. :,

                                                        l UrOS8VaC

                                                           l       A-


                                                           GAON3AD-99-111R   NATO Opemtions in the Balkans
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                                       EMPLOYMENT OF U.S. ARMY RESOURCES
              The U.S. Army has 10 active divisions, sized to meet the requirements of the National Military Strategy.
              All 10 divisions would be needed in the event of two major theater wars occuning at about the sametime.
              While not engagedin major theater wars, these divisions can be used in smaller-scaleoperationslike the
              one in Bosnia. A number of the divisions are actively engagedin various parts of the world today, as
              shown in table II. 1.

              Table 11.1:U.S. Army Divisions and Their Current Commitments, as of February II,1999

                                                        Retraining following Bosnia mission to be camp

               25” infantry Division    United States   Normal home station training.
               82”’ Airborne            United States   On Call as rapid reSDOnSeforce.
               lOPAir assault           United States   Normal home station training.

          As can be seenfrom the table, as of mid-February 1999, all but three of the &my’s divisions are either
          committed to certain parts of the world or are preparing for or recovering from operations.

          l       One division is committed to Bosnia; another division is scheduledto deploy later this year.

          l       Two other divisions, the ones basedin Europe, had been providing the bulk of the forces for Bosnia
                  until last summer,when they were given an operational pause scheduleto last until 2001. This
                  reflected au Amry decision to relieve U.S. &my Europe of the high operating and personneltempo
                  it has experiencedsince the Bosnia mission began and to allow it to focus on its wartime mission.

          l      A fifth division is based in Korea to guard against a North Korean invasion of South Korea.

          l      A sixth division is committed to Southwest Asia and has been deploying a battalion on a quarterly
                 basis for the past severalyears to train with Kuwaiti armed forces. This division also has a brigade
                 on alert to deploy to Kuwait in the event of any increasedtensions with Jraq.

          l      A seventhdivision is on continuous alert to respondto any other crisesthat may occur anywhere in
                 the world.

                                                                              GAO/NSIAD8FlllR     NATO Operations in the Balkans
                                                                                                ATTACHMENT            II

           l   Theremainin g three divisions are engagedin normal peacetimetraining to meet wartime
               requirements. One of these is also the test division in the Army’s advancedwarfighting experiment
               and is in the process of receiving new equipment. Any requirement to deploy all or a major part of
               another division would increasethe risk of being able to respondto major theater war within
               establishedJoint StaEtimeIines should one occur during a Kosovo deployment becausethe pool of
               readily available divisions would shrink.

           The Army also has 8 National Guard Divisions and 15 enhancedreadinessbrigadesthat could be called
           into service to provide forces for smaller-scalecontingencies. One of these divisions is scheduledto lead
           the Bosnia mission in 2000. To avoid straining active divisions, the Presidentcould exercisehis statutory
           authority to call-up reserve forces. He could utilize his Presidential SelectedReserveCall-up Authority,
           which allows him to involuntarily call to duty up to 200,000 reservistsat any one time with no one
           reservist able to serve more than 270 days. Jf the time necessaryto first tram and then deploy a unit for a
           6-month tour of duty exceedsthe 270day period, which has beenthe casefor active units involved in
           Bosnia, the President could then use his statutory authority to order a partial mobilization of the atmed
           forces. Under this authority he can call to involuntary duty up to 1 million reservistsfor up to 2 years.
           To use this authority, he must declare a national emergency.

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                                                                                                         ATTACHMENT              III

                                  CURRENT NATO AND U.N PEACE OPERATIONS
                                         IN THE BALKANS REGION
           The following attachmentprovides information on current military operationsled by NATO and the
           United Nations intended to bring peaceand stability to the Balkans. Table III. 1 provides summary
           information on these operations. Table III.2 provides information on force contributors to SFOR Table
           III.3 shows the mission of and force contributions to U.N. operationsin Macedonia.

           As shown in Table III. 1, NATO commandsalmost all troops assignedto international peace operations in
           the Balloms. As of November 1998, at least 35,000 military personnel were deployed under NATO
           command or control in three operationsin the region, while just over 1,000military personnel were
           deployed in one U.N. operation. Theseoperations both support and are dependentupon larger
           international civilian efforts to bring peaceand stability to the region.

           Table 111.1:NATO and UN.-led Peace Operations in the Stilkans Region, as of November 1998

             Name                                                           Area of          Force Levels     U.S.
                                                                            Operations                        Contribution
            -NATO              1 SFOR                                       Bosnia                  33,200’             6,828

           N.A = Not available.

           vhis number includes 2,268 SFOR personnel based in Croatia.

           bThis figure includes non-SFOR personnel assigned to the U.S. national support element in Croatia. About 1,980
           U.S. troops were also directly supporting SFOR in Hungary (654) and Italy (1,324).

           vhis operation is based in Macedonia and is on-call for deployment to Kosovo to extract unarmed monitors of the
           Kosovo Verification Mission run by the OSCE.

           dThis operation includes forces based in Macedonia, specifically, ground forces assigned to the Kosovo Verification
           Coordination Center and some air assets.

           vhe number of NATO and non-NATO military personnel associated with this air operation is not available.

           ‘The United Nations also has deployed a group of 28 military observers to monitor the demilitarization of the Prevlaka
           peninsula in southern Croatia. The FRY is disputing Croatia’s claim to this peninsula because it controls the entrance
           to a sea inlet in Montenegro.

           gOn February 25, 1999, China vetoed the U.N. Security Council resolution that would have extended UNPREDEP’s
           mandate beyond the February 28, 1999, end date.

                                                                            GAOMX4D-99-I     1IR NATO Operations in the Balkans
                                                                                                           ATTACHMENT               III

           Table III.2 provides information on troop contributions to SFOR by NATO and non-NATO participants.

           Table 111.2:SFOR Force Contributors, By Country (as of November 1998)

               NATO Countries                            ) Contribution
                 Belgium                                                            561
                 Canada                                                           1,040
                 France                                                           3,167
                 Germany                                                          2,535
                 Greece                                                             294
                 Italy                                                            2,15f:
                 Luxemhntrm                                                           74
                 NethWlIQIIu3                            I                         I,& I I
                 Natwav                                  I                           750
           I   Portugal                                                              300
               Spain                                                              1,710
               Turkev                                                             1.554
           I United Klnadom                              I                        4.752      I1
               United States                                                      6,828
            Subtotal                                                             27.550
               Austria                                                              208
               Czech Republic                                                       568
               Eavnt ’                                   I                          124
               Estonia                                   I                           43
               Finland                                                              377           1
               Hungary                                                              238
               Latvia                                                                41
               Lithuania                                                             41
               Morocco                                                              630
               Poland                                                               484
               Romania                                                              21A
               Russia                                                             1,342
               Sweden                                                               449
               Ukraine                                                              395
               Other cnuntriesD                                                     A47
            Subtotal                                                              5,301
            Multinational Specialized Unit’                                         352
            Total                                                                33,203

           -he withdrawal of Egyptian troops was completed by November 30,1998.

           bNine other countries contributed troops to SFOR: Albania, Argentina, Australia, Bulgaria, Ireland, Jordan, New
           Zealand, South Africa, and Slovakia.

           ‘Data was not available to break out this number by country. Italy is the largest contributor to this unit followed by
           Argentina. By February 1999, countries had contributed about 500 of the 800 troops required for this unit.

                                                             Page 14
                                                                              GAO/NSlAD-99-11 IR NATO Operations in the Babm
                                                                                                                         ATTACHMENT         III

            The United Nations had deployed one military observer force consisting of about 1,050 military
            personnelin Macedonia, as of January 1999 (seetable IIJ.3). On February 25,1999, however, China
            vetoedthe resolution calling for the extension of UNPREDEP’s mandate past its February 28 end date,
            thereby ending the mission.

            The mission of this force was to deter and report on possible developmentsthat could undermine
            confidence and stability in Macedonia or threaten its territory. UNPREDEP’s tasks included deterring
            threats or clashes,monitoring events,and patrolling Macedonia’s border areasand reporting to the
            Security Council any developmentsthat could pose a threat to Macedonia.” In July 1998, UNPREDEP
            assumedthe task of monitoring and reporting on (1) flows of illicit arms to the FRY, including Kosovo;
            (2) the arming and training of terrorists on Macedonian territory; or (3) any other activities prohibited
            since March 1998by the UN. Security Coun~il.‘~ At the sametime, at the requestof the governmentof
            Macedonia,the U.N. Security Council extendedUNPREDEP’s mandate until February 28,1999. Jt
            also authorizedan increasein the operation’s force level from 750 troops to 1,050 troops. The U.S.
            contribution to the operation increasedfrom its previous level of 350 military personnelto 362.

            Table 111.3:U.N. Preventive Deployment Force in Macedonia (as of January 1999)

                                                          ‘asks                                 Force Contributions
                                                          Under UNSCR 795:                      Total Troops:                  1,050

                                                            Deter threats and prevent           Nordic Battalion:                650
                                                            clashes.                            (Finland, Denmark,
                                                                                                 Norway, Sweden)
             thrkten its territory.                         Monitor border areas.

                                                            Report any developments             Task Force Able Sentryz          350
                                                            that could pose a threat to         (United States):

                                                          Under UNSCR 1166:                     Engineer platoon:                    50
                                                            Monitor and report on illicit
                                                            arms flows to the FRY.
                                                                                                35 military observers and 26
                                                            Monitor and report on               civilian police monitors to report
                                                            arming and training of              on developments within
                                                            terrorists and other                Macedonia and provide training
                                                            activities prohibited by            assistance.
                                                            UNSCR 1160.


           FRY                     = Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro)
           UNPREDEP                = United Nations Preventive Deployment Force
           UNSCR                   = United Nations Security Council Resolution

           Source: United Nations.

           (Code 711416)

           ‘3J.N. secudy f2owlcil Rcsohltion 795 (Dccembcr 11,1992).

           *)v.N. SctiI’y   he’d    Rcsohtion 1160 (Much 31,1998) aad U.N. Security Council Resolution 1186 (July 21,1998).

                                                                   Page 1s
                                                                                       GAOMXAD-99-I         11R NATO Operations in the Balkans
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